Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports

Policy Papers ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Policy Advice ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the financial sector affects each member’s economic outlook with the aim of strengthening staff’s capacity to provide advice on macro-critical questions. The focus has been on developing a fuller understanding of macrofinancial linkages, and applying this analysis to inform policy advice. Staff has sought to articulate the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic baseline, and to integrate the financial sector into the risk assessment, taking into account both the impact of macro shocks on the financial sector as well as the effect of financial shocks on macroeconomic stability. Strengthening the analytical foundations of this work has helped staff provide advice in all policy areas, including financial sector policies. Staff has tailored macrofinancial analysis to the circumstances of a diverse set of economies. Area departments have taken the lead in selecting 66 economies for enhanced macrofinancial coverage and in identifying topics, drawing on targeted support from functional departments. The choice of coverage has included legacies from the global financial crisis—such as deleveraging and stretched balance sheets in advanced economies and some emerging markets—and more recent challenges such as commodity price shocks, especially in low income countries, and the risks of housing booms. The financial sector’s contribution to growth and inclusion has become an important question in countries across all income groups. Staff sees benefits in mainstreaming this approach across the membership, while continuing to address analytical gaps and adapting to new challenges. The work of the past two years has underscored the criticality of macrofinancial analysis for a diverse range of members, and laid the basis for progressively mainstreaming macrofinancial surveillance across the membership. Building on this progress, staff sees scope for the Fund to deepen its understanding of the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks, to better adapt microprudential and macroprudential policy advice with an assessment of macro-critical risks including systemic risk, and to deepen the analysis of outward spillovers. Staff will also need to continue to adapt the focus of analysis and tools, and seek relevant data, as economic challenges evolve.

Informal financial transactions and monetary policy in low-income countries: Interpolated informal credit and interest rates in Malawi

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Financial Transactions ◽  
The Impact

Background: Official monetary data usually exclude informal financial transactions although the informal financial sector (IFS) forms a large part of the financial sector in low-income countries. Aim and setting: Excluding informal financial transactions in official monetary data, however, underestimates the volume of financial transactions and incorrectly presents the cost of credit, bringing into question the accuracy of expected effects of monetary policy on economic activity. Methods: Using IFS data for Malawi constructed from two survey data sets, indigenous knowledge and elements of Friedman’s data interpolation technique, this study employs innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model to compare monetary policy outcomes when IFS data are taken into account and when they are not. Results: The study finds evidence that in certain instances, the formal and informal financial sectors complement each other. For example, it is observed that the rate of inflation as well as output increase following a rise in either formal financial sector (FFS) or IFS lending. Further investigation reveals that in other cases, the FFS and IFS work in conflict with each other. Demonstrating this point, the study finds that a rise in FFS interest rates is followed by a decline in FFS lending while IFS lending does not respond significantly and the response of FFS and IFS loans combined is insignificant. When IFS interest rates are raised, total loans decline significantly. Conclusion: The study, therefore, concludes that exclusion of IFS transactions from official monetary data has the potential to frustrate monetary policy through wrong inferences on the impact of monetary policy on economic activity.

Health Impacts of Volcanic Activity in Oceania

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 574-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Cuthbertson ◽  
Carol Stewart ◽  
Alison Lyon ◽  
Penelope Burns ◽  
Thompson Telepo
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Pyroclastic Flows ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Access To Health Services ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

AbstractVolcanoes cause a wide range of hazardous phenomena. Close to volcanic vents, hazards can be highly dangerous and destructive and include pyroclastic flows and surges, ballistic projectiles, lava flows, lahars, thick ashfalls, and gas and aerosol emissions. Direct health impacts include trauma, burns, and exacerbation of respiratory diseases. Far-reaching volcanic hazards include volcanic ashfalls, gas and aerosol dispersion, and lahars. Within Oceania, the island arc countries of Papua New Guinea (PNG), the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Tonga, and New Zealand are the most at-risk from volcanic activity. Since 1500ad, approximately 10,000 lives have been lost due to volcanic activity across Oceania, with 39 lives lost since 2000. While volcano monitoring and surveillance save lives, residual risks remain from small, sudden, unheralded eruptions, such as the December 9, 2019 eruption of Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand which has a death toll of 21 at the time of writing. Widespread volcanic ashfalls can affect the habitability of downwind communities by contaminating water supplies, damaging crops and buildings, and degrading indoor and outdoor air quality, as well as disrupting transport and communication networks and access to health services. While the fatality rate due to volcanic eruptions may be low, far greater numbers of people may be affected by volcanic activity with approximately 100,000 people in PNG and Vanuatu displaced since 2000. It is challenging to manage health impacts for displaced people, particularly in low-income countries where events such as eruptions occur against a background of low, variable vaccination rates, high prevalence of infectious diseases, poor sanitation infrastructure, and poor nutritional status. As a case study, the 2017-2018 eruption of Ambae volcano, Vanuatu caused no casualties but triggered two separate mandatory off-island evacuations of the entire population of approximately 11,700 people. On the neighboring island of Santo, a health disaster response was coordinated by local government and provided acute care when evacuees arrived. Involving primary care clinicians in this setting enhanced local capacity for health care provision and allowed for an improved understanding of the impact of displacement on evacuee communities.

Trends in Infant Feeding in Developing Countries

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 648-666
Author(s):  
Francis Notzon
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Breast Feeding ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Developing World ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Feeding Practices ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, interest in breast-feeding and infant-supplementation practices in the developing world has been growing. Numerous community, regional, and national studies have described the patterns of breast-feeding and, to a lesser extent, of supplementation in a wide range of low-income countries. Nevertheless, adequate documentation of national trends in breast-feeding is available for only a small number of developing countries, and trends in supplementation remain to be described. The apparent decline in breast-feeding in the developing world has been the subject of numerous articles describing the impact of this trend on infant morbidity and mortality, fertility levels, and family finances. Frequently, the examples used to illustrate the decrease in breast-feeding are methedologically flawed; they use nonrepresentative or noncomparable samples, for example, or make implicit assumptions about past breast-feeding practices. In spite of such shortcomings, the consistent reports of important declines appear to indicate that some basic changes are taking place in breast-feeding practices in certain areas of the developing world. The fact that these changes seem to be following the general pattern of breast-feeding decline that occurred at earlier times in developed countries adds to their plausibility. Although a general awareness of changes in lactation in the developing world now prevails, the documentation of this trend is far from complete. Even for those countries in which trends have been appropriately measured, the amount and pattern of change may vary widely from country to country. In most of the countries with information on breast-feeding trends, recent declines have occurred, although the decreases range from sharp to moderate.

Nine Centuries of Man

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Gender Expectations ◽  
Court Records ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Police Reports ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Scottish History ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

What did it mean to be a man in Scotland over the past nine centuries? Scotland, with its stereotypes of the kilted warrior and the industrial ‘hard man’, has long been characterised in masculine terms, but there has been little historical exploration of masculinity in a wider context. This interdisciplinary collection examines a diverse range of the multiple and changing forms of masculinities from the late eleventh to the late twentieth century, exploring the ways in which Scottish society through the ages defined expectations for men and their behaviour. How men reacted to those expectations is examined through sources such as documentary materials, medieval seals, romances, poetry, begging letters, police reports and court records, charity records, oral histories and personal correspondence. Focusing upon the wide range of activities and roles undertaken by men – work, fatherhood and play, violence and war, sex and commerce – the book also illustrates the range of masculinities that affected or were internalised by men. Together, the chapters illustrate some of the ways Scotland’s gender expectations have changed over the centuries and how, more generally, masculinities have informed the path of Scottish history

History and Morality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Bloxham
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Country ◽  
Moral Thought ◽  
Majority Opinion ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Moral Judgements ◽  
Value Judgements ◽  
The Impact

Against majority opinion within his profession, Donald Bloxham argues that it is legitimate, often unavoidable, and frequently important for historians to make value judgements about the past. History and Morality draws on a wide range of historical examples, and its author’s insights as a practising historian. Examining concepts like impartiality, neutrality, contextualization, and the use and abuse of the idea of the past as a foreign country, Bloxham’s book investigates how the discipline has got to the point where what is preached can be so inconsistent with what is practised. It illuminates how far tacit moral judgements infuse works of history, and how strange those histories would look if the judgements were removed. Bloxham argues that rather than trying to eradicate all judgemental elements from their work historians need to think more consistently about how, and with what justification, they make the judgements that they do. The importance of all this lies not just in the responsibilities that historians bear towards the past—responsibilities to take historical actors on those actors’ own terms and to portray the impact of those actors’ deeds—but also in the role of history as a source of identity, pride, and shame in the present. The account of moral thought in History and Morality has ramifications far beyond the activities of vocational historians.

scholarly journals The Clean pilot study: evaluation of an environmental hygiene intervention bundle in three Tanzanian hospitals

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgia Gon ◽  
Abdunoor M. Kabanywanyi ◽  
Petri Blinkhoff ◽  
Simon Cousens ◽  
Stephanie J. Dancer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Study Design ◽  
Low Income ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Surface Cleaning ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Training Period ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Environmental Hygiene ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Healthcare associated infections (HAI) are estimated to affect up to 15% of hospital inpatients in low-income countries (LICs). A critical but often neglected aspect of HAI prevention is basic environmental hygiene, particularly surface cleaning and linen management. TEACH CLEAN is an educational intervention aimed at improving environmental hygiene. We evaluated the effectiveness of this intervention in a pilot study in three high-volume maternity and newborn units in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Methods This study design prospectively evaluated the intervention as a whole, and offered a before-and-after comparison of the impact of the main training. We measured changes in microbiological cleanliness [Aerobic Colony Counts (ACC) and presence of Staphylococcus aureus] using dipslides, and physical cleaning action using gel dots. These were analysed with descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. We used qualitative (focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and semi-structured observation) and quantitative (observation checklist) tools to measure why and how the intervention worked. We describe these findings across the themes of adaptation, fidelity, dose, reach and context. Results Microbiological cleanliness improved during the study period (ACC pre-training: 19%; post-training: 41%). The odds of cleanliness increased on average by 1.33 weekly during the pre-training period (CI = 1.11–1.60), and by 1.08 (CI = 1.03–1.13) during the post-training period. Cleaning action improved only in the pre-training period. Detection of S. aureus on hospital surfaces did not change substantially. The intervention was well received and considered feasible in this context. The major pitfalls in the implementation were the limited number of training sessions at the hospital level and the lack of supportive supervision. A systems barrier to implementation was lack of regular cleaning supplies. Conclusions The evaluation suggests that improvements in microbiological cleanliness are possible using this intervention and can be sustained. Improved microbiological cleanliness is a key step on the pathway to infection prevention in hospitals. Future research should assess whether this bundle is cost-effective in reducing bacterial and viral transmission and infection using a rigorous study design.

scholarly journals Immigration and economic mobility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria F. Hoen ◽  
Simen Markussen ◽  
Knut Røed
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Labor Market Outcomes ◽  
Lower Class ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Class Background ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Relative Prime

AbstractWe examine how immigration affects natives’ relative prime-age labor market outcomes by economic class background, with class background established on the basis of parents’ earnings rank. Exploiting alternative sources of variation in immigration patterns across time and space, we find that immigration from low-income countries reduces intergenerational mobility and thus steepens the social gradient in natives’ labor market outcomes, whereas immigration from high-income countries levels it. These findings are robust with respect to a wide range of identifying assumptions. The analysis is based on high-quality population-wide administrative data from Norway, which is one of the rich-world countries with the most rapid rise in the immigrant population share over the past two decades. Our findings suggest that immigration can explain a considerable part of the observed relative decline in economic performance among natives with a lower-class background.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in children treated with immunosuppressive medication for kidney diseases

2020 ◽  
pp. archdischild-2020-320616
Author(s):  
Matko Marlais ◽  
Tanja Wlodkowski ◽  
Samhar Al-Akash ◽  
Petr Ananin ◽  
Varun Kumar Bandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Immunosuppressive Therapy ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Reference Network ◽  
Immunosuppressive Medication ◽  
Immunosuppressive Medications ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundChildren are recognised as at lower risk of severe COVID-19 compared with adults, but the impact of immunosuppression is yet to be determined. This study aims to describe the clinical course of COVID-19 in children with kidney disease taking immunosuppressive medication and to assess disease severity.MethodsCross-sectional study hosted by the European Rare Kidney Disease Reference Network and supported by the European, Asian and International paediatric nephrology societies. Anonymised data were submitted online for any child (age <20 years) with COVID-19 taking immunosuppressive medication for a kidney condition. Study recruited for 16 weeks from 15 March 2020 to 05 July 2020. The primary outcome was severity of COVID-19.Results113 children were reported in this study from 30 different countries. Median age: 13 years (49% male). Main underlying reasons for immunosuppressive therapy: kidney transplant (47%), nephrotic syndrome (27%), systemic lupus erythematosus (10%). Immunosuppressive medications used include: glucocorticoids (76%), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (54%), tacrolimus/ciclosporine A (58%), rituximab/ofatumumab (11%). 78% required no respiratory support during COVID-19 illness, 5% required bi-level positive airway pressure or ventilation. Four children died; all deaths reported were from low-income countries with associated comorbidities. There was no significant difference in severity of COVID-19 based on gender, dialysis status, underlying kidney condition, and type or number of immunosuppressive medications.ConclusionsThis global study shows most children with a kidney disease taking immunosuppressive medication have mild disease with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We therefore suggest that children on immunosuppressive therapy should not be more strictly isolated than children who are not on immunosuppressive therapy.

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth: the experience of low-income countries in Sub Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atif Awad
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the long-run impact of selected foreign capital inflows, including aid, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and debt, on the economic growth of 21 low-income countries in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) region, during the period 1990–2018. Design/methodology/approach To obtain this objective and for robust analysis, a parametric approach, which was dynamic ordinary least squares, and a non-parametric technique, which was fully modified ordinary least squares, were used. Findings The results of both models confirmed that, in the long run, trade and aid affected the growth rate of the per capita income in these countries in a positive way. However, external debt seemed to have an adverse influence on such growth. Originality/value First, this is the initial study that has addressed this matter across a homogenous group of countries in the SSA region. Second, while most of the previous studies regarding capital inflows into the SSA region have focused on the impact of only one or two aspects of such foreign capital inflows on growth, the present study, instead, examined the impact of five types of foreign capital inflows (aid, remittances, FDI, trade and debt).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document