scholarly journals German Bond Yields and Debt Supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (235) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Charlotte Paret ◽  
Anke Weber

Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.

Subject Ultra-long government bonds. Significance Interest rates are low while yield curves have flattened as longer-term bonds have appreciated more in capital terms than shorter-term instruments. In this environment, issuing sovereign bonds that will mature in 50 or 100 years is becoming increasingly popular with governments. Impacts Further government bond issuance will add to the already high global debt mountain. The combination of investors searching relentlessly for high yielding assets and populations ageing could push interest rates even lower. Many emerging markets are cutting interest rates, making ultra-long bonds more attractive; more governments will issue such bonds. Rising inflation and interest rates would reverse currently supportive bond market conditions and decimate demand for ultra-long bonds.


Significance Furthermore, liquidity injections by central banks are supressing bond yields. However, even a hint from major central banks that inflation is picking up faster than anticipated could roil stock markets, whose lofty valuations depend on yields remaining ultra-low. Impacts A communication blunder by a major central bank could exacerbate any bond market volatility and cause a sharp sell-off in equity markets. More transmissible coronavirus strains are reaching more nations and reigniting fears about the speed and efficacy of vaccine rollout. A record USD18tn of public and corporate debt is yielding a negative return, fuelling demand for higher-yield EM bonds and currencies. The trade-weighted dollar has fallen by nearly 4% since end-September to the lowest since April 2018; it is set to stay under pressure.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renny Nirwana Sari ◽  
Suryanto .

The purpose of this study to examine the relationship between emotionalintelligence and anonymity with cyberbullying in terms of gender. This study was donewith quantitative methods. Measurement variables of this research using a scale ofcyberbullying, emotional intelligence scale and the scale of anonymity. were Subjectsjunior high school students in Sidoarjo, which amounted to 44 students with a lifespan of13-17 years with a mix of men and women at least 21 of 23 students, which is inaccordance with the criteria as perpetrators of cyberbullying. were analyzed usingregression analysis, partial correlation,and Anova. The results showed: first, there wasno significant relationship between emotional intelligence and anonymity withcyberbullying. second, there is a positive relationship of emotional intelligence withcyberbullying. Third, the anonymity has a negative relationship with cyberbullying.Fourth, the difference in cyberbullying behavior between men and women, where menthere is a tendency to become perpetrators of cyberbullying.Keywords : Emotional Intelligence , Anonymity , Cyberbullying


Author(s):  
Paulo Alexandre ◽  
Rui Dias ◽  
Paula Heliodoro

This research aims to test the interdependencies between the Eurozone, US and Japanese debt markets, through the yields of 10-year sovereign bonds. The sample covers the period from 2002:01 to 2019:07. The analysis aims to provide answers to two questions: Has the global financial crisis accentuated the interdependencies in the Eurozone debt markets? If yes, how did it influence the movements in sovereign bond yields? The results suggest that the global financial crisis did not accentuate the levels of interdependence between the main Euro zone debt markets. In addition, the results suggest the existence of high movements in periods of crisis and not crisis. We also found that yields on PIIGS sovereign bonds decreased their interdependencies with their peers in the years 2002 to 2019, with the exception of the Greek debt market.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-382
Author(s):  
Irsa Fatima Makhdoom ◽  
Mohsin Atta ◽  
Najma Iqbal Malik

The present study was an endeavor to extend the literature of perceived organizational politics by examining its moderating role between the relationship of organizational citizenship behavior and production deviance. Organizational Citizenship Behavior Scale (Mackenzie, Podsakoff, & Paine, 1999), Production Deviance sub-scale of Counterproductive Work Behavior Checklist-32 (Spector et al., 2006), and Perception of Organizational Politics Scale (Kacmar & Carlson, 1997) were used in present study. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that low levels of perceived organizational politics moderated the relationship between courtesy and production deviance by strengthening the negative relationship of these behaviors while perceived organizational politics did not act as a moderator for the relationship of civic virtue and conscientiousness with production deviance. High level of go-along-to-get-ahead as a moderator strengthened the relationship of civic virtue and conscientiousness with production deviance and its low level was found to be moderating the relationship between courtesy and production deviance. Future implications of the study were also discussed.


Author(s):  
Andrew Briggs ◽  
Hans Halvorson ◽  
Andrew Steane

Two scientists and a philosopher aim to show how science both enriches and is enriched by Christian faith. The text is written around four themes: 1. God is a being to be known, not a hypothesis to be tested; 2. We set a high bar on what constitutes good argument; 3. Uncertainty is OK; 4. We are allowed to open up the window that the natural world offers us. This is not a work of apologetics. Rather, the text takes an overview of various themes and gives reactions and responses, intended to place science correctly as a valued component of the life of faith. The difference between philosophical analysis and theological reflection is expounded. Questions of human identity are addressed from philosophy, computer science, quantum physics, evolutionary biology and theological reflection. Contemporary physics reveals the subtle and open nature of physical existence, and offers lessons in how to learn and how to live with incomplete knowledge. The nature and role of miracles is considered. The ‘argument from design’ is critiqued, especially arguments from fine-tuning. Logical derivation from impersonal facts is not an appropriate route to a relationship of mutual trust. Mainstream evolutionary biology is assessed to be a valuable component of our understanding, but no exploratory process can itself fully account for the nature of what is discovered. To engage deeply in science is to seek truth and to seek a better future; it is also an activity of appreciation, as one may appreciate a work of art.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6914
Author(s):  
Frikkie Alberts Maré ◽  
Henry Jordaan

The high water intake and wastewater discharge of slaughterhouses have been a concern for many years. One neglected factor in previous research is allocating the water footprint (WF) to beef production’s different products and by-products. The objective of this article was to estimate the WF of different cattle breeds at a slaughterhouse and cutting plant and allocate it according to the different cuts (products) and by-products of beef based on the value fraction of each. The results indicated a negative relationship between the carcass weight and the processing WF when the different breeds were compared. Regarding a specific cut of beef, a kilogram of rib eye from the heaviest breed had a processing WF of 614.57 L/kg, compared to the 919.91 L/kg for the rib eye of the lightest breed. A comparison of the different cuts indicated that high-value cuts had higher WFs than low-value cuts. The difference between a kilogram of rib eye and flank was 426.26 L/kg for the heaviest breed and 637.86 L/kg for the lightest breed. An option to reduce the processing WF of beef is to lessen the WF by slaughtering heavier animals. This will require no extra investment from the slaughterhouse. At the same time, the returns should increase as the average production inputs per kilogram of output (carcass) should reduce, as the slaughterhouse will process more kilograms.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Yuxuan Gao ◽  
Haiming Liang ◽  
Bingzhen Sun

With the rapid development of e-commerce, whether network intelligent recommendation can attract customers has become a measure of customer retention on online shopping platforms. In the literature about network intelligent recommendation, there are few studies that consider the difference preference of customers in different time periods. This paper proposes the dynamic network intelligent hybrid recommendation algorithm distinguishing time periods (DIHR), it is a integrated novel model combined with the DEMATEL and TOPSIS method to solved the problem of network intelligent recommendation considering time periods. The proposed method makes use of the DEMATEL method for evaluating the preference relationship of customers for indexes of merchandises, and adopt the TOPSIS method combined with intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN) for assessing and ranking the merchandises according to the indexes. We specifically introduce the calculation steps of the proposed method, and then calculate its application in the online shopping platform.


2021 ◽  
pp. 107385842110304
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Lucherini Angeletti ◽  
Andrea Scalabrini ◽  
Valdo Ricca ◽  
Georg Northoff

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is characterized by social anxiety/fear, self-attention, and interoception. Functional magnetic resonance imaging studies demonstrate increased activity during symptom-sensitive tasks in regions of the default-mode network (DMN), amygdala (AMG), and salience network (SN). What is the source of this task-unspecific symptom-sensitive hyperactivity in DMN? We address this question by probing SAD resting state (rs) changes in DMN including their relation to other regions as possible source of task-unspecific hyperactivity in the same regions. Our findings show the following: (1) rs-hypoconnectivity within-DMN regions; (2) rs-hyperconnectivity between DMN and AMG/SN; (3) task-evoked hyperactivity in the abnormal rs-regions of DMN and AMG/SN during different symptom-sensitive tasks; (4) negative relationship of rest and task changes in especially anterior DMN regions as their rs-hypoconnectivity is accompanied by task-unspecific hyperactivity; (5) abnormal top-down/bottom-up modulation between anterior DMN regions and AMG during rest and task. Findings demonstrate that rs-hypoconnectivity among DMN regions is negatively related to task-unspecific hyperactivity in DMN and AMG/SN. We propose a model of “Topography of the Anxious Self” in SAD (TAS-SAD). Abnormal DMN-AMG/SN topography during rest, as trait feature of an “unstable social self”, is abnormally aggravated during SAD-sensitive situations resulting in task-related hyperactivity in the same regions with an “anxious self” as state feature.


2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63


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