scholarly journals Bali in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Population and Employment Dilemmas

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-154
Author(s):  
I Gusti Wayan Murjana Yasa

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic has a huge impact on the lives of Balinese citizens. The aim of this study is to find the right steps and frameworks that enable to reduce the spread and death caused by COVID-19 as quickly and as minimally as possible, so that the sustainable impact on the socioeconomic can be reduce. Research methods: Preventive measures are needed, especially for the Field Facilitator Staff as the front guard, so that the BSPS program channelled adequately. The key to smooth distribution, in addition to the precise mechanism, must also follow the government's recommendations and implement health protocols. Findings: The results show that the population and employment structure of Bali has high potential for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to the high level of population mobility, both population mobility between regions within the country and population mobility between countries. The second cause is the Balinese population structure consists of many elderly people, thus causing a high potential case fatality rate from a pandemic. Implications: Based on the results of the study, it is recommend minimize the possibility of the spread of covid-19 through the first and second rapid tests involving as many residents that potential to be covid-19 deployment carrier, both through local transmission and imported cases.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Bai ◽  
Haonan Lu ◽  
Hailin Hu ◽  
M. Kumi Smith ◽  
Katherine Harripersaud ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundAs China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. MethodsBased on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios.ResultsImported cases account for the majority (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage following work resumption, various resumption schemes resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption.ConclusionControl of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks were the key for the prevention of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shenzhen during its reopening and work resumption.


2021 ◽  
Vol 317 ◽  
pp. 01091
Author(s):  
Slamet Subekti ◽  
Singgih T. Sulistiyo ◽  
Dedi S. Adhuri

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a wide impact on the lives of the Balinese people. The purpose of this study is to find sources of food security related to the status of Benoa Bay as a Maritime Conservation Area (MCA) during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus providing alternative livelihoods for local communities. The research is based on published secondary data collected from observations processed descriptively. The results show that local wisdom plays an important role in maintaining Benoa Bay as a sacred area for religious and cultural activities, and secondly that the determination of Benoa Bay as an MCA is strategic in managing maritime cultural areas within the framework of SDG 14, which has an impact on creating social inclusion, improving the welfare of local communities and ensuring the sustainability of marine ecosystems in the coastal areas of Bali. The third finding is that the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is due to the high level of population mobility and the population structure of Bali, which is already relatively old and has the potential to accelerate the potential for high case fatality rates from the pandemic. Fourth, Benoa Bay has potential resources as alternative livelihoods for local communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the study results, it is recommended to tighten the possibility of spreading through the first and second rapid tests involving as many people as possible as carriers of the spread of COVID-19, both through local transmission and imported cases. Furthermore, indigenous peoples are recommended to consistently fight for the status of Benoa Bay as an MCA through a Presidential Regulation (Peraturan Presiden) to ensure the preservation of the maritime ecosystem with its potential resources.


Tibuana ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
pp. 7-15
Author(s):  
Marcy L Pattiapon

The world has been shocked by the emergence of COVID-19 since December 2019 which is an acute respiratory disease caused by a corona virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or abbreviated as SARSCoV-2 (Gorbalenya et al., 2020). As of June 17, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) noted that there were 8,061,550 people infected with COVID-19 and 440,290 people died (WHO, 2020a). Even though the Case Fatality Rate (CFR)  of  COVID-19  is  only around  5.46%, this disease is very dangerous because of its spread so fast it has infected 216 countries (Worldometer, 2020). To prevent uncontrolled spread, WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 (WHO, 2020b) to increase awareness of this disease. The status of this pandemic is a concern for the world to make various   efforts   to   prevent   the   spread   of COVID-19. One way to protect yourself from spreading COVID-19 is to use Personal Protective Equipment. Face shield is a personal protective device that functions to protect the face from exposure to dangerous substances in the case of the spread of the Covid-19 virus. A good face shield is a face shield that has a high level of durability, has high material quality, has a sufficient level of elasticity, and the costs incurred are not too expensive.In choosing the best alternative in making a decision, the right method is needed so that the best alternative is obtained from various predetermined criteria.Then the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to select the best alternative material to be used in making the Face Shield. Based on the results of the research conducted, it can be seen that each alternative has the advantage of the criteria felt by the respondent.However,  of  the  four  criteria  for   selecting the face shield material, the most superior  or  chosen  as  the  choice  is mica.Judging from the percentage of mica against the Durability criteria is 31.7%, the percentage of mica against the quality criteria is 43.1%.


2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41
Author(s):  
Yelena Artamonova

Lung cancer is the leading cause of mortality from malignant tumors all over the world. Since most patients at the time of diagnosis already have stage III-IV of the disease, the search for new effective treatment strategies for advanced NSCLC is the most important problem of modern oncology. The results of the study of the anti-PD1 monoclonal antibody pembrolizumab were a real breakthrough in the treatment of NSCLC. In the KEYN0TE-001 study, the expression of PD-L1 on tumor cells was validated as a predictive biomarker of the drug's efficiency. Pembrolizumab demonstrated the possibility of achieving long-term objective responses, and a 4-year 0S with all histological types in the subgroup of pre-treated patients with PD-L1 expression> 50% was 24.8% and 15.6% in the PD-L1> 1% group. In a phase 2/3 randomized study KEYN0TE-10 in the 2nd line treatment of NSCLC with PD-L1 expression > 1% pembrolizumab significantly increased life expectancy compared to docetaxel and confirmed the possibility of longterm duration of objective responses, even after cessation of treatment. Then the focus of research shifted to the 1st line of treatment. About 30% of patients with NSCLC have a high level of PD-L1 expression on tumor cells and demonstrate the most impressive response to pembrolizumab therapy. A randomized phase 3 study KEYN0TE-024 compared the effectiveness of pembrolizumab monotherapy with a standard platinum combination in patients with advanced NSCLC with a high level of PD-L1 expression without EGFR mutations or ALK translocation. Compared with the platinum doublet the administration of pembrolizumab significantly increased all estimated parameters, including the median of progression-free survival (mPFS was 10.3 months versus 6 months; HR = 0.50; 95% CI 0.37-0.68, p < 0.001), the objective response rate (ORR 44.8% versus 27.8%), duration of response (in the pembrolizumab arm the median was not reached, in the chemotherapy (CT) group - 6.3 months). Despite the approved crossover, the use of pembrolizumab in the 1st line of treatment more than doubled the life expectancy of NSCLC patients with high PD-L1 expression as compared to CT: the median overall survival (OS) was 30.0 months versus 14.2 months (HR = 0.63, p = 0.002), 1-year OS 70.3% versus 54.8%; 2-year OS - 51.5% versus 34.5%. The remaining population to study were untreated patients with any level of PD-L1 expression. A randomized phase 3 study KEYNOTE-189 evaluated the effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to the platinum combination in the 1st line treatment of non-squamous NSCLC without EGFR and ALK mutations with any PD-L1 expression. The addition of pembrolizumab to the standard 1st line CT significantly increased all estimated efficacy indicators including OS, PFS and ORR. After a median follow-up of 10.5 months the median OS in the pembrolizumab combination group was not reached and in CT group was 11.3 months. The estimated 12-months survival was 69.2% and 49.4% respectively (HR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.38-0,64; p <0.001). The median PFS was 8.8 months versus 4.9 months, alive 1 year without progression 34.1% and 17.3% of patients respectively (HR = 0.52; p <0.001). The ORR in the group with pembrolizumab reached 47.6% versus 18.9% in CT group, moreover the tumor regressions were much longer. Finally a randomized 3-phase study KEYN0TE-407 evaluated the effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to 1st-line CT of NSCLC with squamous histology with any PD-L1 expression. As the first analysis showed, the addition of permboli-zumab significantly increased OS of patients with squamous NSCLC, median OS 15.9 months versus 11.3 months in the groups of pembrolizumab + CT and placebo + CT respectively (HR = 0.64; 95% CI 0,49-0.95; p = 0.0006), median PFS 6.4 months and 4.8 months respectively (HR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.450.70; p <0, 0001) and OrR 57.9% versus 38.4%, the median response duration 7.7 months versus 4.8 months. Thus, the convincing advantages of using pembrolizumab in 1st line therapy were demonstrated in 3 randomized phase 3 studies: in monotherapy of NSCLC of any histological subtype with high PD-L1 expression, and in combination with CT in squamous and non-squamous hystologies regardless of the level of PD-L1 expression.


Author(s):  
Mateusz Iwo Dubaniowski ◽  
Hans Rudolf Heinimann

A system-of-systems (SoS) approach is often used for simulating disruptions to business and infrastructure system networks allowing for integration of several models into one simulation. However, the integration is frequently challenging as each system is designed individually with different characteristics, such as time granularity. Understanding the impact of time granularity on propagation of disruptions between businesses and infrastructure systems and finding the appropriate granularity for the SoS simulation remain as major challenges. To tackle these, we explore how time granularity, recovery time, and disruption size affect the propagation of disruptions between constituent systems of an SoS simulation. To address this issue, we developed a high level architecture (HLA) simulation of three networks and performed a series of simulation experiments. Our results revealed that time granularity and especially recovery time have huge impact on propagation of disruptions. Consequently, we developed a model for selecting an appropriate time granularity for an SoS simulation based on expected recovery time. Our simulation experiments show that time granularity should be less than 1.13 of expected recovery time. We identified some areas for future research centered around extending the experimental factors space.


2021 ◽  
pp. 0308518X2199781
Author(s):  
Xinyue Luo ◽  
Mingxing Chen

The nodes and links in urban networks are usually presented in a two-dimensional(2D) view. The co-occurrence of nodes and links can also be realized from a three-dimensional(3D) perspective to make the characteristics of urban network more intuitively revealed. Our result shows that the external connections of high-level cities are mainly affected by the level of cities(nodes) and less affected by geographical distance, while medium-level cities are affected by the interaction of the level of cities(nodes) and geographical distance. The external connections of low-level cities are greatly restricted by geographical distance.


Author(s):  
Aida Mekhoukhe ◽  
Nacer Mohellebi ◽  
Tayeb Mohellebi ◽  
Leila Deflaoui-Abdelfettah ◽  
Sonia Medouni-Adrar ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVE: the present work proposed to extract Locust Bean Gum (LBG) from Algerian carob fruits, evaluate physicochemical and rheological properties (solubility). It aimed also to develop different formulations of strawberry jams with a mixture of LBG and pectin in order to obtain a product with a high sensory acceptance. METHODS: the physicochemical characteristics of LBG were assessed. The impact of temperature on solubility was also studied. The physical and the sensory profile and acceptance of five Jams were evaluated. RESULTS: composition results revealed that LBG presented a high level of carbohydrate but low concentrations of fat and ash. The LBG was partially cold-water-soluble (∼62% at 25°C) and needed heating to reach a higher solubility value (∼89% at 80 °C). Overall, the sensorial acceptances decreased in jams J3 which was formulated with 100% pectin and commercial one (J5). The external preference map explained that most consumers were located to the right side of the map providing evidence that most samples appreciated were J4 and J2 (rate of 80–100%). CONCLUSION: In this investigation, the LBG was used successfully in the strawberry jam’s formulation.


2015 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 3351-3358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefania de Vito ◽  
Marine Lunven ◽  
Clémence Bourlon ◽  
Christophe Duret ◽  
Patrick Cavanagh ◽  
...  

When we look at bars flashed against a moving background, we see them displaced in the direction of the upcoming motion (flash-grab illusion). It is still debated whether these motion-induced position shifts are low-level, reflexive consequences of stimulus motion or high-level compensation engaged only when the stimulus is tracked with attention. To investigate whether attention is a causal factor for this striking illusory position shift, we evaluated the flash-grab illusion in six patients with damaged attentional networks in the right hemisphere and signs of left visual neglect and six age-matched controls. With stimuli in the top, right, and bottom visual fields, neglect patients experienced the same amount of illusion as controls. However, patients showed no significant shift when the test was presented in their left hemifield, despite having equally precise judgments. Thus, paradoxically, neglect patients perceived the position of the flash more veridically in their neglected hemifield. These results suggest that impaired attentional processes can reduce the interaction between a moving background and a superimposed stationary flash, and indicate that attention is a critical factor in generating the illusory motion-induced shifts of location.


2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Oppermann ◽  
Uwe Hassler ◽  
Jörg D. Jescheniak ◽  
Thomas Gruber

The human cognitive system is highly efficient in extracting information from our visual environment. This efficiency is based on acquired knowledge that guides our attention toward relevant events and promotes the recognition of individual objects as they appear in visual scenes. The experience-based representation of such knowledge contains not only information about the individual objects but also about relations between them, such as the typical context in which individual objects co-occur. The present EEG study aimed at exploring the availability of such relational knowledge in the time course of visual scene processing, using oscillatory evoked gamma-band responses as a neural correlate for a currently activated cortical stimulus representation. Participants decided whether two simultaneously presented objects were conceptually coherent (e.g., mouse–cheese) or not (e.g., crown–mushroom). We obtained increased evoked gamma-band responses for coherent scenes compared with incoherent scenes beginning as early as 70 msec after stimulus onset within a distributed cortical network, including the right temporal, the right frontal, and the bilateral occipital cortex. This finding provides empirical evidence for the functional importance of evoked oscillatory activity in high-level vision beyond the visual cortex and, thus, gives new insights into the functional relevance of neuronal interactions. It also indicates the very early availability of experience-based knowledge that might be regarded as a fundamental mechanism for the rapid extraction of the gist of a scene.


2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (31) ◽  
pp. E4531-E4540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Braden A. Purcell ◽  
Roozbeh Kiani

Decision-making in a natural environment depends on a hierarchy of interacting decision processes. A high-level strategy guides ongoing choices, and the outcomes of those choices determine whether or not the strategy should change. When the right decision strategy is uncertain, as in most natural settings, feedback becomes ambiguous because negative outcomes may be due to limited information or bad strategy. Disambiguating the cause of feedback requires active inference and is key to updating the strategy. We hypothesize that the expected accuracy of a choice plays a crucial rule in this inference, and setting the strategy depends on integration of outcome and expectations across choices. We test this hypothesis with a task in which subjects report the net direction of random dot kinematograms with varying difficulty while the correct stimulus−response association undergoes invisible and unpredictable switches every few trials. We show that subjects treat negative feedback as evidence for a switch but weigh it with their expected accuracy. Subjects accumulate switch evidence (in units of log-likelihood ratio) across trials and update their response strategy when accumulated evidence reaches a bound. A computational framework based on these principles quantitatively explains all aspects of the behavior, providing a plausible neural mechanism for the implementation of hierarchical multiscale decision processes. We suggest that a similar neural computation—bounded accumulation of evidence—underlies both the choice and switches in the strategy that govern the choice, and that expected accuracy of a choice represents a key link between the levels of the decision-making hierarchy.


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