scholarly journals Pengujian Calendar Effect di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun 2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-86
Author(s):  
Mega Noerman Ningtyas
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Market Theory ◽  
Ols Regression ◽  
Day Of The Week

Market efficiency theory stated that stock prices reflect all information in the market. There are 3 different level of market efficiency: weak form, semi-strong form and strong form. When a market is in the state of weak form, there is no investor can gain abnormal return using past information. Calendar effect that is Day of the Week, January Effect and Turn of the Month is anomaly in the stock market that opposed the efficiency market theory. The purpose of this study is to examine the Calendar Effect in Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2016. This research use daily stock price data in LQ45. Using the OLS regression with 5 dummy variables, the results showed that trading day had an effect on stock return where negative return occurred on Monday but not significant. The positive return occured in the following days and the highest return occurred on Wednesday. It can be concluded that the first hypothesis of Day of the Week phenomenon is supported. OLS regression with  1 variable dummy for return in January and 0 otherwise, the result shows that the coefficient is negative and insignificant so it can be concluded that January Effect is not supported. Third hypothesis, Turn of the Month, result shows positive and significant coefficient at level 1%. It means the stock returns in 5 trading days at the end of the month and 2 trading days at the beginning of the month are higher than in other days.

ANOMALI PASAR PADA RETURN SAHAM LQ 45 DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA: FENOMENA THE DAY OF WEEK EFFECT, WEEK FOUR EFFECT, ROGALSKY EFFECT, DAN JANUARY EFFECT

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Reza Widhar Pahlevi
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Day Of The Week

Market anomalies appears on all forms of efficient markets, both weak form, semi-strong and strongform. But plenty of evidence to link the anomaly with semi-strong form efficient market exploited togenerate abnormal returns. Market anomalies that is often discussed is the Day of the Week Effect,January Effect, Week Four Effect and other market anomalies. Empirical research is intended todetermine whether there is the phenomenon of the day of the week effect, week four effect, the effectrogalsky and January effect on LQ 45 stocks in the Indonesia Stock Exchange year period 2014-2015.Based on the analysis of data, shows that there is the phenomenon of the day of week effect on thecompany LQ-45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2014-2015 period, there is the phenomenon of weekfour effect on the LQ-45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2014-2015 period, there are phenomenonRogalski Effect on the LQ-45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2014-2015 period and there is no Januaryeffect phenomenon in the LQ-45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2014-2015 period.Keywords: the day of the week effect, week four effect, rogalsky effect and january effect

Semi-strong Form Market Efficiency in Stock Markets with Low Levels of Trading Activity: Evidence from Stock Price Reaction to Major National and International Events

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1447-1464
Author(s):  
C. Justin Robinson ◽  
Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Price Reaction ◽  
Stock Price Reaction ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
International Events

This study uses the event study methodology to explore semi-strong form market efficiency in the context of low levels of trading activity. Covering six frontier stock markets, it investigates stock price reaction to major national news events that include natural disasters, parliamentary elections and credit rating reviews and the international events such as international terrorist incidents, major events surrounding the 2007/2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis and the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership in the European Union (Brexit). The results of the event studies, which feature a correction for low levels of trading activity, show that in sharp contrast with more actively traded markets, stock prices on markets with relatively low levels of trading activity did not react to the vast majority of major news events, and only tended to react to rare events with major consequences. Usually, where stock prices reacted to a news event, the reaction was significantly delayed, which is inconsistent with semi-strong form market efficiency. The implication is that low levels of trading activity may be associated with semi-strong form inefficiency, and stock prices in such markets may not fully reflect all relevant available information, and may be of limited value to a variety of decision-makers.

scholarly journals The Analysis of Weak-Form Efficiency in the Market of Crude Oil

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Górska ◽  
Monika Krawiec
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

Crude oil is the strategic commodity whose market has become the biggest commodity market in the world over the past 40 years. The main actors in the market, such as producers, refiners, financial institutions, and individual traders are interested in recognizing some trends, patterns or anomalies in performance of oil prices and returns, they could benefit from. Such anomalies among others are calendar effects, for example the day-of-the week effect, the month-of-the year effect, holidays effect or the turn-of-the month effect. Either the calendar effects are observed for stock prices, or for commodity prices, they make the markets inefficient. According to classical Fama’s definition: a market in which prices always fully reflect available information is called efficient. However, there are 3 types of market efficiency: weak-form efficiency, semistrong-form efficiency, strong-form efficiency. The weak-form market efficiency is tested the most often. There are several tools used for its verification, for example: some statistical tests (unit root tests, autocorrelation tests, variance ratio tests), long-run relationships and correlation analysis, calendar effects analysis. Our previous research focused on searching for calendar effects in the market of crude oil (Górska, Krawiec 2015), shows the existence of the-day-of-the week and the month effects. It may imply market inefficiency. That is why the present paper is aimed at further testing weak-form market efficiency. The empirical data covers daily closing prices of crude oil in USD per barrel from 2000 to 2015 and includes, both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent quotations. Having calculated their logarithmic returns, we apply the following tests: runs test, variance ratio, autocorrelation test.

scholarly journals Market Efficiency and Integration: An Examination of Indian Stock Market

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandra Shekhar Bhatnagar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Weak Sense ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
Indian Stock Market

This paper examines the efficiency and integration of the Indian stock market. The weak form of efficiency has been tested by studying the stationarity characteristics of theMSCI Stock Price Index of India. For testing the semi-strong form of efficiency and integration of the Indian Stock Market with the macro phenomenon of emerging stock markets of the world, the causality between the MSCI Stock Price Index of India and the MSCI EMF Index has been studied. The results point out that the Indian Stock Market is efficient in its weak sense. However, the same is not true for the semi-strong form of market efficiency. Therefore, the utility of a forecasting model having the macro phenomenon (MSCI EMF Index in the present case) as a forecasting variable cannot be ruled out.  

An Empirical Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis with reference to FMCG Sector

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-126
Author(s):  
Nitin Tanted ◽  
Prashant Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Run Test ◽  
Stock Price Movements

One of the highly controversial issues in the area of finance is “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. Efficient Market Hypothesis states that, “In an efficient market, all available price information is reflected in the stock prices and it is not possible to generate abnormal returns compared to other investors.” A lot of studies conducted previouslyto test the Efficient Market Hypothesis, confirmed the theory until recent years, when some academicians found it to be non-applicable in financial markets. According to them, it is possible to forecast the stock price movements using Technical Analysis. The results of various studies have been inconclusive and indefinite about the issue. This study attempted to test the efficiency of FMCG Sector stocks in India in its weak form. For the study, closing prices of top 10 stocks from Nifty FMCG index has been taken for the 5-year period ranging from 1st October 2014 to 30th September 2019. Wald-Wolfowitz Run test has been used to test the haphazard movements in the stock price movements. The results indicated that FMCG sector stocks does support the Efficient Market Hypothesis and exhibit efficiency in its weak form. Hence, it is not possible to accurately predict the price movements of these stocks.

Perbandingan harga saham, volume transaksi dan return saham sebelum dan sesudah terjadi pandemi covid-19 pada PT Agung Podomoro Land, Tbk

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 720
Author(s):  
Anggun Putri Romadhina ◽  
Eka Kusuma Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Paired Sample ◽  
First Case ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Stock Transaction

The first Covid-19 case in Indonesia was announced on March 2, 2020. This study aims to determine whether there is a significant difference in stock prices, stock transaction volume and stock returns due to the COVID-19 pandemic (case study at PT. Agung Podomoro Land, Tbk). This research data was taken 90 days before and 90 days after the announcement of the first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia. The data was processed by paired sample t-test, using SPSS version 20. From the results of data processing, it was shown that there was a significant difference in stock prices before and after the announcement of the first case of covid-19 in Indonesia. This is indicated by a significance value of 0.000 < 0.05 where the stock price has decreased compared to before the Covid-19 case. Meanwhile, the volume of stock transactions also showed a significant difference with a significance value of 0.007 <0.05, where the volume of stock transactions after the announcement showed a decrease. Likewise, stock returns show a significant difference with a significance value of 0.025 < 0.05 where stock returns have decreased after the announcement of the first case of covid-10 in Indonesia.  

scholarly journals FACTORS AFFECTING OPERATING CASH FLOW TO STOCK RETURN THROUGH STOCK PRICE

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aprih . Santoso
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Operating Cash Flow

Abstract : Companies need funds in order to carry out operations such as the financing of production activities, pay employees, pay other expenses related to the operation of the company. One way to obtain these funds is to attract investors to invest in companies in the form of stock, but in making this investment is certainly not easy for investors, because investors need consideration beforehand to find out how the company's performance. The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the effect of operating cash flow to stock return through stock price at companies listed on the Stock Exchange Year 2012-2015. The data used in this study dala are secondary data from the financial statements of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2012 - 2015. The data are in the form of financial statements can be obtained from the Indonesian Capital Market Directory (ICMD), the IDX website www.idx.co. id as well as from various other sources to support this research. The population in this research is manufacturing companies listed on the Stock Exchange the period 2012 - 2015. The samples taken by the sampling technique used purposive sampling.From the test results and analysis of the data it can be concluded that operating cash flow directly and indirectly has no effect on stock returns through stock prices showed no significant results. Keywords :  Operating Cash Flow, Stock Price, Stocks Return

scholarly journals Systematic illiquidity, characteristic illiquidity, and stock returns: Timeseries analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 72-80
Author(s):  
Soltane et al. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Timeseries Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

The objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between illiquidity and stock prices on the Tunisian stock exchange. While previous researches tended to focus on one form of illiquidity to examine this relationship, our study unifies three forms of illiquidity at the same time. Indeed, we simultaneously consider illiquidity as systematic risk, as a characteristic of the market, and as a characteristic of the stock. The aggregate illiquidity of the market is the average of individual stock illiquidity. The illiquidity risk is the sensitivity of the stock price to illiquidity shocks. Shocks of market illiquidity are estimated by the innovations in the expected market illiquidity. Results show that investors on the Tunisian stock exchange do not require higher returns when they expect a rise of market illiquidity, whereas investors on U.S markets are compensated for higher expected market illiquidity. In addition, shocks of market illiquidity provoke a fall in stock prices of small caps, while large caps are not sensitive to market illiquidity shocks. This differs slightly from results based on U.S. data where illiquidity shocks reduce all stock prices but most notably those of small caps. Robustness tests validate our findings. Our results are consistent with previous studies which reported that the “zero-return” ratio predicts significantly the return-illiquidity relationship on emerging markets.

The cost of presidential impeachment to politically connected firms

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-121
Author(s):  
Ha Na Lee ◽  
B. K. Song
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Korean History ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
The Cost

AbstractThis study examines the ways political events can affect the stock prices of politically connected firms by studying one of the biggest corruption scandals in modern South Korean history, which led to the first-ever impeachment of a sitting president. We analyzed the stock returns of firms that donated money to foundations allegedly controlled by the president's confidante. We found that the abnormal stock returns of politically connected firms decreased when the president was removed from office. Using tick-by-tick stock price data, we were able to pinpoint the exact moments when the stock prices of firms that donated money fluctuated, as the president's fate was determined by the justices of the Constitutional Court.

scholarly journals Effects of Common Factors on Dynamics of Stocks Traded by Investors with Limited Information Capacity

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Songtao Wu ◽  
Jianmin He ◽  
Chao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Common Factors ◽  
Information Capacity ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Information Characteristics

An artificial stock market with agent-based model is built to investigate effects of different information characteristics of common factors on the dynamics stock returns. Investors with limited information capacity update their beliefs based on the information they have obtained and processed and optimize portfolios based on beliefs. We find that with changing of concerned information characteristics the uncertainty of stock price returns rises and is higher than the uncertainty of intrinsic value returns. However, this increase is constrained by the limited information capacity of investors. At the same time, we also find that dependence between returns of stock prices also increased with the changing information environment. The uncertainty and dependency pertaining to prices show a positive relationship. However, the positive relationship is weakened when taking into account the features of intrinsic values, based on which prices are generated.

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