scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, TINGKAT INFLASI, DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH ATAS US DOLLAR TERHADAP IMPOR INDONESIA PERIODE 2010.Q1 – 2017.Q4

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43
Author(s):  
Jusmer Sihotang ◽  
Yabes Gulo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to analyze the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, and the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) exchange rate to US Dollar on Indonesian imports. The study uses multiple regression equation models using secondary time series data in the period of 2010.Q1 to 2017.Q4. The results showed that the coefficient sign of each regression independent variable (real Gross Domestic Product, inflation rate, and Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) exchange rate on US Dollar) were in accordance with theoretical expectations, and all of these independent variables could explain for 60.3 percent of the diversity of the dependent variable namely imports Indonesia. Both simultaneously and individually all these independent variables significantly influence Indonesia's imports at the level of α = 1%. The real Gross Domestic Product and inflation rate have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian imports, while the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) exchange rate on US Dollar has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's imports. Based on the results of the study, in order to control Indonesia's imports in the future, a policy should be guarantee the availability of various imported substitution products, easy to obtain, and can compete with imported products. Thus the impact of the increase in Gross Domestic Product, an increase in the inflation rate, and the appreciation of the rupiah against the increase in Indonesian imports will be controlled.

scholarly journals VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH AFTER FIRST DIFFERENCING: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFLATION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN TANZANIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Rachel R. Cheti ◽  
Bahati Ilembo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

The objective of the study was to examine the trend of inflation and its key determinants in Tanzania. We used secondary time series data observed annually from January 1970 to 2020 which are inflation rate, GDP, Exchange rate and money supply. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model was employed for modeling. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) found that inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and Money supply (M3) were initially non-stationary but they became stationary after first differencing so as to proceed with the analysis. Preliminary tests before obtaining vector auto regressive model were carried out before determining the relationship between the variables. Diagnostic test such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, stability and normality were also important to evaluate the model assumptions and investigate whether or not there are observations with a large, undue influence on the analysis. We used Granger causality test (GCT) to determine causal- effect relationship between the variables. The results show that, there is a long run relationship between the variables, also the results showed that exchange rate and money supply (M3) both have a positive impact on inflation rate while gross domestic product (GDP) revealed a negative impact on inflation rate. Finally, the forecast of inflation rate for 15 years ahead was performed. The study recommends that the government should pursue both contractionary monetary policy and fiscal policy in order to control inflation in the country.

scholarly journals An Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Apeh ◽  
Abubakar Muhammad Auwal ◽  
Nweze Nwaze Obinna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

scholarly journals Nexus between Tourism and Gross Domestic Product in Sri Lanka

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
A.L.M. Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables

Nowadays, policy makers believe that the tourism is a positive tool for economic growth of nations because which helps to economies of countries by several ways. In Sri Lankan experience it was not statistically confirmed. The aim of this study was to test the nexus between the tourism earnings and the gross domestic product in Sri Lanka. To test this nexus this study used time series data during the period of 1970 to 2014, and employed the multiple regressions model. In this study, the gross domestic product in constant price was used as dependant variable and exchange rate, foreign remittance, tourism earning, and inflation rate were considered as independent variables. Based on the regression outcomes, this study found that the tourism positively maintained the nexus on the gross domestic product in Sri Lanka at five percent significant level.

scholarly journals AGRICULTURAL FINANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (0) ◽  
pp. 467-475
Author(s):  
Funso Abiodun Okunlola ◽  
Godswill Osagie Osuma ◽  
Ehimare Alexander Omankhanlen
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Finance ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study performed an in-depth examination of the impact of guaranteed agricultural finance to oil palm, cocoa, groundnuts, fishery, poultry, cattle, roots, and tubers on the real gross domestic product of the country. Time series data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin of various issues. The data sets covered thirty-seven (37) years spanning from 1981 to 2017. The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for its analysis. However, prior estimation and due to several exogenous variables, Phillip Perron stationarity test was used to determine the order of integration because of its robustness to serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. The study also specified the lag criterion based on LR, FPE, AIC, SC, and HQ using Newey-West covariance matrix estimator. Findings from both short-run and long-run models as confirmed by the Wald test, which shows that none of the guaranteed agricultural finance is statistically significant to real gross domestic product. The study, therefore, recommends increased funding and deliberate efforts at determining which of the nominated agricultural spending has the most contributory impact on growth.

scholarly journals Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-190
Author(s):  
MA Abubakar ◽  
K Apeh ◽  
ON Nweze
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

scholarly journals Empirical Relationship of Exchange Rate with Inflation, International Trade and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Pakistan’s Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 171-182
Author(s):  
Erum Khushnood Zahid Shaikh ◽  
Zahid H. Channa ◽  
Mehwish Bhutto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Relationship Of

In the modern world, the exchange rate plays an important role in measuring the strength of country’s economy in global economic conditions. An exchange rate is an important tool for controlling various macro-economic variables, and it is itself affected by different macro-economic variables. Pakistan is a developing country of the world and its unstable economy faces high variability in the exchange rate or devaluation of the domestic currency. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship of an exchange rate with selected macro-economic variables (i.e. import, GDP, Inflation & export), with a special focus on Pakistan’s economy. It also aims at finding out the degree of strength at which selected independent variables to leave a significant impact on the exchange rate in the economy of Pakistan (i.e. during the period of 1992 to 2017). For this secondary database study, data extracted from official website of World Bank, State Bank of Pakistan and Economic Surveys of Pakistan. Multiple regression models were used to measure the empirical impact of selected independent variables on exchange rate. Findings show that the Import and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have a significant negative impact on exchange rate whereas, export and inflation have a significant positive impact on the exchange rate in the economy of Pakistan. The study recommends that the Government of Pakistan should adapt to make its exchange rate policy more effective through high production, more export with a reduction of import and price stability.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectoral Indices in Indonesia

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on sectoral indices in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The difference in sensitiveness among sectors is an interesting issue to investigate this relationship in an emerging market, such as Indonesia. This study employs ordinary least square (OLS) as an estimation method with monthly time-series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The results document that the interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indonesia. The interest rate partially shows a significant negative influence on all sectors except basic industry and chemical, finance, infrastructure, utilities, and transportation, and miscellaneous industry sectors. The inflation rate partially has no significant effect on all sectors. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative impact on all industries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO (PDB), DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP TABUNGAN MUDHARABAH PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH (PERIODE 2013-2017)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 138
Author(s):  
Rita Nur Wahyuningrum ◽  
Aan Zainul Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Central Statistics

<p>This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) and rupiah exchange rate on Mudharabah savings in Islamic banking in Indonesia. The data used is time series data for the period March 2013 to September 2017, which was published by Bank Indonesia from the Islamic Banking Statistics Report and the Central Statistics Agency. The technique of analyzing the research is qualitative with the method of Multiple Linear Regression. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously the Inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Exchange Rate variables together have a significant effect on Mudharabah Savings. While partially only the Exchange Rate variable has a significant effect on Mudharabah Savings. Inflation Variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have no significant effect on Mudharabah Savings.</p><p> </p><p>Keyword: inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, mudharabah saving</p>

scholarly journals THE FACTORS ANALYSIS THAT INFLUENCE ONINFLATIONIN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 302-307
Author(s):  
Helmi Agus Salim ◽  
Nely Supeni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Rate Coefficient ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Simultaneous Test ◽  
Factors Analysis ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

MBA –JournalofManagementandBusinessAplicationPage 302MBAJournalofManagementandBusinessAplicationTHE FACTORS ANALYSIS THAT INFLUENCE ONINFLATIONIN INDONESIAHelmi Agus Salim1Nely Supeni2Higher Education of Economic MandalaEmail: [email protected] is an interesting topic to discuss because it has a broad impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as on economic growth, product competitiveness, interest rates and income distribution. Inflation is a dilemma that haunts the economy, especially developing countries especially Indonesia is a country with an estimated economic level in the world. Therefore there are several things that will be studied and examined to find out these problems including the effect of fuel subsidies, the effect of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar, the influence of interest rates, and the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the inflation rate in Indonesia. The research method for analyzing data used is multiple regression. The results showed the Subsidy Variable (LS) had a positive regression coefficient of 0.1270 to inflation, the exchange rate coefficient (LK) was 0.5915 to inflation, the value of the interest rate coefficient (LSB) was -0.88638 to inflation, the GDP coefficient (LG) is 0.1489 of inflation. Based on the simultaneous test, it can be seen that the F statistic is 390 with a prob (F-statistic) of less than one percent, so these statistics mean that together the independent variables in the research model include the value of government subsidies, the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the USD, interest rates, and Gross Domestic Product / GDP of Indonesia together influence the inflation rate in Indonesia.Keywords:Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product

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