scholarly journals On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 2007-2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas A. Varotsos ◽  
Chris G. Tzanis ◽  
Nicholas V. Sarlis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Dynamics ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Index Time Series

Abstract. It has been recently reported that the current 2015–2016 El Niño could become "one of the strongest on record". To further explore this claim, we performed the new analysis described in detail in Varotsos et al. (2015) that allows the detection of precursory signals of the strong El Niño events by using a recently developed non-linear dynamics tool. In this context, the analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index time series for the period 1876–2015 shows that the running 2015–2016 El Niño would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong" event and not “one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997–1998.

scholarly journals Technical note: On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (24) ◽  
pp. 35787-35797 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Varotsos ◽  
C. G. Tzanis ◽  
N. V. Sarlis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Linear Dynamics ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Index Time Series

Abstract. It has been recently reported that the current 2015–2016 El Niño could become "one of the strongest on record". To further explore this claim, we performed the new analysis described in detail in Varotsos et al. (2015) that allows the detection of precursory signals of the strong El Niño events by using a recently developed non-linear dynamics tool. In this context, the analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index time series for the period 1876–2015 shows that the running 2015–2016 El Niño would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong" event and not "one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997–1998.

scholarly journals The non-linear impact of El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Christine T. Y. Chung ◽  
Scott B. Power
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Enso Indices

The relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and precipitation (P) in some parts of Australia has previously been shown to be non-linear on annual and seasonal time scales. Here we examine the relationship between P and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at all Australian locations and in all seasons. We show that in many Australian regions, there is more-than-expected P during strong La Niña years (SOI>13), but less-than-expected drying during strong El Niño years (SOI

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEJADIAN EL NINO DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP INTENSITAS CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH JABODETABEK (Studi Kasus : Periode Puncak Musim Hujan Tahun 2015/2016)

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Ardila Yananto ◽  
Rini Mariana Sibarani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

IntisariBeberapa lembaga riset dunia dan badan-badan meteorologi beberapa negara di dunia menyatakan adanya kejadian El Nino Tahun 2015 terus berlanjut hingga tahun 2016. Adanya kejadian El Nino tersebut secara umum akan mempengarui intensitas curah hujan di sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia termasuk wilayah Jabodetabek. Analisis kejadian El Nino Tahun 2015/2016 dilakukan dengan menganalisis nilai NINO 3.4 SST Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), pola sebaran suhu permukaan laut (Sea Surface Temperature) dan juga gradient wind di Samudra Pasifik Tropis. Sedangkan Analisis Curah Hujan dilakukan dengan menggunakan data TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). Dari penelitian ini dapat diketahui bahwa berdasarkan parameter NINO 3.4 SST Index dan Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) pada pertengahan Tahun 2015 hingga awal Tahun 2016 telah terjadi fenomana El Nino pada level kuat, adanya peningkatan suhu permukaan laut di sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia sejak Bulan November 2015 yang diikuti dengan penurunan indeks Dipole Mode hingga menjadi bernilai negatif (-) sejak awal Tahun 2016 serta dengan adanya peralihan Angin Muson Timur ke Angin Muson Barat di wilayah Indonesia telah menyebabkan peningkatan curah hujan yang cukup signifikan dalam batas normal di wilayah Jabodetabek pada puncak musim hujan Tahun 2015/2016 (November 2015 - Februari 2016) walaupun pada Bulan November 2015 hingga Februari 2016 tersebut masih berada pada level El Nino kuat.   AbstractVarious research institutions in the world that work in the field of Meteorology and Climatology predicted an El Nino events in 2015 continued into 2016. The El Nino events phenomenon in general will affect to intensity of the rainfall in most parts of Indonesia, including the Greater Jakarta area. El Nino events phenomenon Analysis by Nino 3.4 SST index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and gradient wind in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. While rainfall intensity analysis using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. From this research it is known that based on the parameters NINO 3.4 SST index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), it is known that there was a strong El Nino event occurred in mid-2015 to early 2016, the increase of sea surface temperature in most parts of Indonesia since November 2015 followed by declines Dipole Mode Index to be negative (-) since the beginning 2016 as well as the shift East monsoon to West monsoon in Indonesia has led to significant rainfall increased within normal limits in the Greater Jakarta area at the peak period of the rainy season 2015/2016 (November 2015 - February 2016) although in November 2015 until February 2016 El Nino event is still at the strong level.  

scholarly journals MLS measurements of stratospheric hydrogen cyanide during the 2015–2016 El Niño event

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 691-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh C. Pumphrey ◽  
Norbert Glatthor ◽  
Peter F. Bernath ◽  
Christopher D. Boone ◽  
James W. Hannigan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Hydrogen Cyanide ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. It is known from ground-based measurements made during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño events that atmospheric hydrogen cyanide (HCN) tends to be higher during such years than at other times. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite has been measuring HCN mixing ratios since launch in 2004; the measurements are ongoing at the time of writing. The winter of 2015–2016 saw the largest El Niño event since 1997–1998. We present MLS measurements of HCN in the lower stratosphere for the Aura mission to date, comparing the 2015–2016 El Niño period to the rest of the mission. HCN in 2015–2016 is higher than at any other time during the mission, but ground-based measurements suggest that it may have been even more elevated in 1997–1998. As the MLS HCN data are essentially unvalidated, we show them alongside data from the MIPAS and ACE-FTS instruments; the three instruments agree reasonably well in the tropical lower stratosphere. Global HCN emissions calculated from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED v4.1) database are much greater during large El Niño events and are greater in 1997–1998 than in 2015–2016, thereby showing good qualitative agreement with the measurements. Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, measured HCN, and GFED HCN emissions is less clear if the 2015–2016 event is excluded. In particular, the 2009–2010 winter had fairly strong El Niño conditions and fairly large GFED HCN emissions, but very little effect is observed in the MLS HCN.

Summer Cooling Driven by Large Volcanic Eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9869-9879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Duan ◽  
Lun Li ◽  
Zhuguo Ma ◽  
Jan Esper ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Temperature Deviation ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
El Nino Events

Large volcanic eruptions may cause abrupt summer cooling over large parts of the globe. However, no comparable imprint has been found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we introduce a 400-yr-long temperature-sensitive network of 17 tree-ring maximum latewood density sites from the TP that demonstrates that the effects of tropical eruptions on the TP are generally greater than those of extratropical eruptions. Moreover, we found that large tropical eruptions accompanied by subsequent El Niño events caused less summer cooling than those that occurred without El Niño association. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) based on 27 events, including 14 tropical eruptions and 13 extratropical eruptions, shows that the summer cooling driven by extratropical eruptions is insignificant on the TP, while significant summer temperature decreases occur subsequent to tropical eruptions. Further analysis of the TP August–September temperature responses reveals a significant postvolcanic cooling only when no El Niño event occurred. However, there is no such cooling for all other situations, that is, tropical eruptions together with a subsequent El Niño event, as well as extratropical eruptions regardless of the occurrence of an El Niño event. The averaged August–September temperature deviation ( Tdev) following 10 large tropical eruptions without a subsequent El Niño event is up to −0.48° ± 0.19°C (with respect to the preceding 5-yr mean), whereas the temperature deviation following 4 large tropical eruptions with an El Niño association is approximately 0.23° ± 0.16°C. These results indicate a mitigation effect of El Niño events on the TP temperature response to large tropical eruptions. The possible mechanism is that El Niño events can weaken the Indian summer monsoon with a subsequent decrease in rainfall and cooling effect, which may lead to a relatively high temperature on the TP, one of the regions affected by the Indian summer monsoon.

scholarly journals A first shallow firn-core record from Glaciar La Ollada, Cerro Mercedario, central Argentine Andes

2006 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 14-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bolius ◽  
Margit Schwikowski ◽  
Theo Jenk ◽  
Heinz W. Gäggeler ◽  
Gino Casassa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Paleoclimate Reconstruction ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Annual Layer ◽  
Firn Core

AbstractIn January 2003, shallow firn cores were recovered from Glaciar Esmeralda on Cerro del Plomo (33°14’S, 70°13’W; 5300 ma.s.l.), central Chile, and from Glaciar La Ollada on Cerro Mercedario (31°58’S, 70°07’W; 6070 ma.s.l.), Argentina, in order to find a suitable archive for paleoclimate reconstruction in a region strongly influenced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. In the area between 28°S and 35°S, the amount of winter precipitation is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index, with higher values during El Nino years. Glaciochemical analysis indicates that the paleo-record at Glaciar La Ollada is well preserved, whereas at Glaciar Esmeralda the record is strongly influenced by meltwater formation and percolation. A preliminary dating of the Mercedario core by annual-layer counting results in a time-span of 17 years (1986-2002), yielding an average annual net accumulation of 0.45 m w.e.

scholarly journals Three Putative Types of El Niño Revealed by Spatial Variability in Impact on Australian Wheat Yield

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1566-1574 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. Potgieter ◽  
G. L. Hammer ◽  
H. Meinke ◽  
R. C. Stone ◽  
L. Goddard
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Australian Wheat ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Niño events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Niño events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Niño are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (“footprints”) found in the El Niño impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean–atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Niño differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Niño events on agricultural systems.

scholarly journals Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Tsonis ◽  
K. L. Swanson ◽  
G. Sugihara ◽  
P. A. Tsonis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Ancient Civilizations ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Climate change has been implicated in the success and downfall of several ancient civilizations. Here we present a synthesis of historical, climatic, and geological evidence that supports the hypothesis that climate change may have been responsible for the slow demise of Minoan civilization. Using proxy ENSO and precipitation reconstruction data in the period 1650–1980 we present empirical and quantitative evidence that El Nino causes drier conditions in the area of Crete. This result is supported by modern data analysis as well as by model simulations. Though not very strong, the ENSO-Mediterranean drying signal appears to be robust, and its overall effect was accentuated by a series of unusually strong and long-lasting El Nino events during the time of the Minoan decline. Indeed, a change in the dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system occurred around 3000 BC, which culminated in a series of strong and frequent El Nino events starting at about 1450 BC and lasting for several centuries. This stressful climatic trend, associated with the gradual demise of the Minoans, is argued to be an important force acting in the downfall of this classic and long-lived civilization.

scholarly journals KAJIAN STATISTIK UKURAN BESAR BUTIR SEDIMEN DAN KAITANNYA DENGAN VARIABILITAS IKLIM MUSIMAN DAN TAHUNAN DI MUARA GEMBONG, TELUK JAKARTA

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 683-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taufik R. Syachputra ◽  
Ivonne M. Radjawane ◽  
Rina Zuraida
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Australian Monsoon ◽  
Dipole Mode Index ◽  
Monsoon Index ◽  
Mode Index

Variabilitas iklim dapat mempengaruhi sifat sedimen yang terendapkan di dasar laut. Salah satu sifat sedimen yang dipengaruhi oleh iklim adalah besar butir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji hubungan antara besar butir dengan variabilitas iklim menggunakan sampel core GM01-2010-TJ22 dari Muara Gembong, Teluk Jakarta, muara sungai Citarum. Sampel core diambil pada tahun 2010 dengan menggunakan Kapal Riset Geomarin I oleh Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Geologi Kelautan (P3GL). Pengukuran besar butir dilakukan dengan menggunakan Mastersizer 2000. Hasil pengukuran ditampilkan dalam seri waktu dari tahun 2001 sampai 2010. Hasil analisis besar butir sampel sedimen dikorelasikan secara statistik dengan fenomena musiman (monsun), tahunan dan antar tahun (El Niño/La Niña dan Dipole Mode). Verifikasi data dilakukan dengan menggunakan data sekunder temperatur permukaan laut dari citra satelit di sekitar lokasi sampel dan data curah hujan di Bekasi. Hasil verifikasi menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan curah hujan di sekitar daerah hilir Sungai Citarum diikuti dengan penurunan temperatur permukaan laut dan peningkatan ukuran rata-rata besar butir. Hasil yang didapat dalam uji statistika menunjukkan bahwa perubahan ukuran besar butir sampel sedimen di Muara Gembong memiliki korelasi signifikan dengan Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index (MEI), Ocean Niño Index (ONI), Dipole Mode Index (DMI) dan Australian Monsoon Index (AUSMI). Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa besar butir sedimen dasar laut potensial digunakan untuk mengetahui variabilitas iklim di sekitar Teluk Jakarta.

scholarly journals Detection of Mesoscale Seasonal and Interannual Variation in the Vegetation of the Amazon Basin

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (25) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Miles G. Logsdon ◽  
Robin Weeks ◽  
Milton Smith ◽  
Jeffery E. Richey ◽  
Victoria Ballester ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Spectral Change ◽  
Range Analysis ◽  
Local Variance ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract In the Amazon basin, seasonal and interannual spectral changes measured by satellites result from anthropogenic disturbance and from the interaction between climate variation and the surface cover. Measurements of spectral change, and the characterization of that change, provide information concerning the physical processes evident at this mesoscale. A 17-yr sequence of daily Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) global area coverage (GAC) images were analyzed to produce a monthly record of surface spectral change encompassing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. Monthly cloud-free composite images from daily AVHRR data were produced by linear filters that minimized the finescale spatial variance and allowed for a wide range analysis within a consistent mathematical framework. Here the use of a minimized local variance (MLV) filter that produced spatially smooth images in which major land-cover boundaries and spatial gradients are clearly represented is discussed. Changes in the configuration of these boundaries and the composition of the landscape elements they defined are described in terms of quantitative changes in landscape pattern. The time series produced with the MLV filter revealed a marked seasonal difference in the pattern of the landscape and structural differences over the length of the time series. Strikingly, the response of the region to drier El Niño years appears to be delayed in the MLV series, the maximum response being in the year following El Niño with little or no change seen during El Niño.

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