scholarly journals Sulfate geoengineering impact on methane transport and lifetime: results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 11209-11226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Visioni ◽  
Giovanni Pitari ◽  
Valentina Aquila ◽  
Simone Tilmes ◽  
Irene Cionni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiation Absorption ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Aerosol Scattering ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Planetary Albedo ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Sulfate geoengineering (SG), made by sustained injection of SO2 in the tropical lower stratosphere, may impact the CH4 abundance through several photochemical mechanisms affecting tropospheric OH and hence the methane lifetime. (a) The reflection of incoming solar radiation increases the planetary albedo and cools the surface, with a tropospheric H2O decrease. (b) The tropospheric UV budget is upset by the additional aerosol scattering and stratospheric ozone changes: the net effect is meridionally not uniform, with a net decrease in the tropics, thus producing less tropospheric O(1D). (c) The extratropical downwelling motion from the lower stratosphere tends to increase the sulfate aerosol surface area density available for heterogeneous chemical reactions in the mid-to-upper troposphere, thus reducing the amount of NOx and O3 production. (d) The tropical lower stratosphere is warmed by solar and planetary radiation absorption by the aerosols. The heating rate perturbation is highly latitude dependent, producing a stronger meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The net effect on tropospheric OH due to the enhanced stratosphere–troposphere exchange may be positive or negative depending on the net result of different superimposed species perturbations (CH4, NOy, O3, SO4) in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In addition, the atmospheric stabilization resulting from the tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming favors an additional decrease of the UTLS extratropical CH4 by lowering the horizontal eddy mixing. Two climate–chemistry coupled models are used to explore the above radiative, chemical and dynamical mechanisms affecting CH4 transport and lifetime (ULAQ-CCM and GEOSCCM). The CH4 lifetime may become significantly longer (by approximately 16 %) with a sustained injection of 8 Tg-SO2 yr−1 starting in the year 2020, which implies an increase of tropospheric CH4 (200 ppbv) and a positive indirect radiative forcing of sulfate geoengineering due to CH4 changes (+0.10 W m−2 in the 2040–2049 decade and +0.15 W m−2 in the 2060–2069 decade).

scholarly journals Sulfate Geoengineering Impact on Methane Transport and Lifetime: Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Visioni ◽  
Giovanni Pitari ◽  
Valentina Aquila ◽  
Simone Tilmes ◽  
Irene Cionni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiation Absorption ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Aerosol Scattering ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Planetary Albedo ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Sulfate geoengineering, made by sustained injection of SO2 in the tropical lower stratosphere, may impact the CH4 abundance through several photochemical mechanisms affecting tropospheric OH and hence the methane lifetime. (a) Solar radiation scattering increases the planetary albedo and cools the surface, with a tropospheric H2O decrease. (b) The tropospheric UV budget is upset by the additional aerosol scattering and stratospheric ozone changes: the net effect is meridionally not uniform, with a net decrease in the tropics, thus producing less tropospheric O(1D). (c) The extratropical downwelling motion from the lower stratosphere tends to increase the sulfate aerosol surface area density available for heterogeneous chemical reactions in the mid-upper troposphere, thus reducing the amount of NOx and O3 production. (d) The tropical lower stratosphere is warmed by solar and planetary radiation absorption by the aerosols. The heating rate perturbation is highly latitude dependent, producing a stronger meridional component of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The net effect on tropospheric OH due to the enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange may be positive or negative depending on the net result of different superimposed species perturbations (CH4, NOy, O3, SO4) in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In addition, the atmospheric stabilization resulting from the tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming favors an additional decrease of the UTLS extratropical CH4, by lowering the horizontal eddy mixing. Two climate-chemistry coupled models are used to explore the above radiative, chemical and dynamical mechanisms affecting CH4 transport and lifetime (ULAQ-CCM and GEOSCCM). The CH4 lifetime may become significantly longer (by approximately 16 %) with a sustained injection of 8 Tg-SO2/yr started in year 2020, which implies an increase of tropospheric CH4 (200 ppbv) and a positive indirect radiative forcing of sulfate geoengineering due to CH4 changes (+0.10 W/m2 in the 2040–2049 decade and +0.15 W/m2 in the 2060–2069 decade).

scholarly journals Characterising the seasonal and geographical variability in tropospheric ozone, stratospheric influence and recent changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 3589-3620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan S. Williams ◽  
Michaela I. Hegglin ◽  
Brian J. Kerridge ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Barry G. Latter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The World

Abstract. The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability, and its changes and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified-dynamics chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry – Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (IGAC-SPARC) (IGAC–SPARC) Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozone-sonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (∼0–5.5 km) sub-column ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2 to 8 Dobson units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (∼±4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozone-sondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with a negative bias in the troposphere resulting from a likely underestimation of photochemical ozone production. This has ramifications for diagnosing the level of model–measurement agreement. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozone-sondes in comparison with OMI, which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is inferred that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) compared to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is significant and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long-term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5 %–10 %) between 1980–1989 and 2001–2010. Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25 % to 30 % at the surface to as much as 50 %–80 % in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) across some regions of the world, including western Eurasia, eastern North America, the South Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere.

scholarly journals Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (45) ◽  
pp. 13794-13799 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Moore ◽  
Aslak Grinsted ◽  
Xiaoran Guo ◽  
Xiaoyong Yu ◽  
Svetlana Jevrejeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
Atlantic Hurricanes ◽  
The One ◽  
The Tropics

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

scholarly journals Characterising the Seasonal and Geographical Variability of Tropospheric Ozone, Stratospheric Influence and Recent Changes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan S. Williams ◽  
Michaela I. Hegglin ◽  
Brian J. Kerridge ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Barry G. Latter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The World

Abstract. The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades, but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability and changes, and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified dynamics chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations from the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the IGAC/SPARC Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozonesonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (~ 0–5.5 km) subcolumn ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2–8 Dobson Units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (~ −4 to +4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozonesondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with an underestimation of photochemical ozone production (negative bias) in the troposphere. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozonesondes, in comparison with OMI which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is shown that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) relative to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone, over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is larger than previously thought and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons between 1980–89 and 2001–10. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world, but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5–10 %). Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25–30 % at the surface to as much as 50–80 % in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) across many regions of the world. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere.

scholarly journals Analysis of a rapid increase of stratospheric ozone during late austral summer 2008 over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E)

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 363-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bencherif ◽  
L. El Amraoui ◽  
G. Kirgis ◽  
J. Leclair De Bellevue ◽  
A. Hauchecorne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Global Mapping ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. This paper reports on an increase of ozone event observed over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E) in relationship with large-scale isentropic transport. This is evidenced by ground-based observations (co-localised radiosonde and SAOZ experiments) together with satellite global observations (Aura/MLS) assimilated into MOCAGE, a Méteo-France model. The study is based on the analyses of the first ozonesonde experiment never recorded at the Kerguelen site within the framework of a French campaign called ROCK that took place from April to August 2008. Comparisons and interpretations of the observed event are supported by co-localised SAOZ observations, by global mapping of tracers (O3, N2O and columns of O3) from Aura/MLS and Aura/OMI experiments, and by model simulations of Ertel Potential Vorticity initialised by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data reanalyses. Satellite and ground-based observational data revealed a consistent increase of ozone in the local stratosphere by mid-April 2008. Additionally, Ozone (O3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) profiles obtained during January–May 2008 using the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite are assimilated into MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle), a global three-dimensional chemistry transport model of Météo-France. The assimilated total O3 values are consistent with SAOZ ground observations (within ±5%), and isentropic distributions of O3 match well with maps of advected potential vorticity (APV) derived from the MIMOSA model, a high-resolution advection transport model, and from the ECMWF reanalysis. The event studied seems to be related to the isentropic transport of air masses that took place simultaneously in the lower- and middle-stratosphere, respectively from the polar region and from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. In fact, the ozone increase observed by mid April 2008 resulted simultaneously: (1) from an equator-ward departure of polar air masses characterised with a high-ozone layer in the lower stratosphere (near the 475 K isentropic level), and (2) from a reverse isentropic transport from the tropics to mid- and high-latitudes in the upper stratosphere (nearby the 700 K level). The increase of ozone observed over Kerguelen from the 16-April ozonesonde profile is thus attributed to a concomitant isentropic transport of ozone in two stratospheric layers: the tropical air moving southward and reaching over Kerguelen in the upper stratosphere, and the polar air passing over the same area but in the lower stratosphere.

scholarly journals Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2423-2434 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. H. Samset ◽  
G. Myhre ◽  
M. Schulz ◽  
Y. Balkanski ◽  
S. Bauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Vertical Profile ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

Water vapour in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS): A new vertically resolved dataset from limb and nadir satellite observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Ye ◽  
Michaela Hegglin ◽  
Martina Krämer ◽  
Christian Rolf ◽  
Alexandra Laeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Tropopause Region ◽  
Quality Water

<p>Water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant impact both on the radiative and chemical properties of the atmosphere. Reliable water vapour observations are essential for the evaluation of the accuracy of UTLS water vapour from model simulations, and thereafter of the contribution to the global radiative forcing and climate change. Limb-viewing and nadir satellites provide high quality water vapour observations above the lower stratosphere and below the upper troposphere, respectively, but show large uncertainties in the tropopause region.<span>  </span>Within the ESA Water Vapour Climate Change Initiative, we have developed a new scheme to optimally estimate water vapour profiles in the UTLS and in particular across the tropopause, by merging observations from a set of limb and nadir satellites from 2010 to 2014. The new data record of vertically resolved water vapour is validated against the aircraft in-situ water vapour observations from the JULIA database and frostpoint hydrometer records from WAVAS. Furthermore, the new data record is used to evaluate the UTLS water vapour distribution and interannual variations from chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations and the ERA-5 reanalysis.</p>

scholarly journals Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 575-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gauss ◽  
G. Myhre ◽  
I. S. A. Isaksen ◽  
V. Grewe ◽  
G. Pitari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Stratospheric Chemistry ◽  
Ozone Column ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered (constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm−2 and 0.45 Wm−2 due to ozone change in the troposphere and −0.123 Wm−2 and +0.066 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm−2, while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm−2. Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

scholarly journals Cloud radiative forcing intercomparison between fully coupled CMIP5 models and CERES satellite data

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 793-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Calisto ◽  
D. Folini ◽  
M. Wild ◽  
L. Bengtsson
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Summer Hemisphere ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. In this paper, radiative fluxes for 10 years from 11 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and from CERES satellite observations have been analyzed and compared. Under present-day conditions, the majority of the investigated CMIP5 models show a tendency towards a too-negative global mean net cloud radiative forcing (NetCRF) as compared to CERES. A separate inspection of the long-wave and shortwave contribution (LWCRF and SWCRF) as well as cloud cover points to different shortcomings in different models. Models with a similar NetCRF still differ in their SWCRF and LWCRF and/or cloud cover. Zonal means mostly show excessive SWCRF (too much cooling) in the tropics between 20° S and 20° N and in the midlatitudes between 40 to 60° S. Most of the models show a too-small/too-weak LWCRF (too little warming) in the subtropics (20 to 40° S and N). Difference maps between CERES and the models identify the tropical Pacific Ocean as an area of major discrepancies in both SWCRF and LWCRF. The summer hemisphere is found to pose a bigger challenge for the SWCRF than the winter hemisphere. The results suggest error compensation to occur between LWCRF and SWCRF, but also when taking zonal and/or annual means. Uncertainties in the cloud radiative forcing are thus still present in current models used in CMIP5.

scholarly journals Extreme temperature and precipitation response to solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duoying Ji ◽  
Songsong Fang ◽  
Charles L. Curry ◽  
Hiroki Kashimura ◽  
Shingo Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Direct Effect ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Lower Maximum ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Subtropical Oceans ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under two potential geoengineering methods forming part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The solar dimming experiment G1 is designed to completely offset the global mean radiative forcing due to a CO2-quadrupling experiment (abrupt 4 × CO2), while in GeoMIP experiment G4, the radiative forcing due to the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario is partly offset by a simulated layer of aerosols in the stratosphere. Both G1 and G4 geoengineering simulations lead to lower maximum temperatures at higher latitudes, and on land primarily through feedback effects involving high latitude processes such as snow cover, sea ice and soil moisture. Maximum 5-day precipitation increases over subtropical oceans, whereas warm spells decrease markedly in the tropics, and the number of consecutive dry days decreases in most deserts. The precipitation during the tropical cyclone (hurricane) seasons becomes less intense, whilst the remainder of the year becomes wetter. Aerosol injection is more effective than dimming in moderating extreme precipitation (and flooding), possibly due to stratospheric warming by aerosol injection working in tandem with sea surface temperature reductions to moderate extreme tropical storm cyclogenesis. The differences in the response of temperature extremes between the two types of geoengineering are relatively minor. Despite the magnitude of the radiative forcing applied in G1 being ~ 6.5 times larger than in G4, and differences in the aerosol chemistry and transport schemes amongst the models, one can discern clear differences in the precipitation extremes between the types of geoengineering probably due to the aerosol direct effect and related energetic changes.

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