scholarly journals Does afforestation deteriorate haze pollution in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), China?

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 10869-10879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Long ◽  
Naifang Bei ◽  
Jiarui Wu ◽  
Xia Li ◽  
Tian Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Haze Pollution ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Although aggressive emission control strategies have been implemented recently in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area (BTH), China, pervasive and persistent haze still frequently engulfs the region during wintertime. Afforestation in BTH, primarily concentrated in the Taihang and Yan Mountains, has constituted one of the controversial factors exacerbating the haze pollution due to its slowdown of the surface wind speed. We report here an increasing trend of forest cover in BTH during 2001–2013 based on long-term satellite measurements and the impact of the afforestation on the fine-particle (PM2.5) level. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast model with chemistry reveal that afforestation in BTH since 2001 has generally been deteriorating the haze pollution in BTH to some degree, enhancing PM2.5 concentrations by up to 6 % on average. Complete afforestation or deforestation in the Taihang and Yan Mountains would increase or decrease the PM2.5 level within 15 % in BTH. Our model results also suggest that implementing a large ventilation corridor system would not be effective or beneficial to mitigate the haze pollution in Beijing.

scholarly journals Does afforestation deteriorate haze pollution in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), China?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Long ◽  
Naifang Bei ◽  
Jiarui Wu ◽  
Xia Li ◽  
Tian Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Fine Particles ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Haze Pollution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Although aggressive emission control strategies have been implemented recently in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area (BTH), China, pervasive and persistent haze still frequently engulfs the region during wintertime. Afforestation in BTH, primarily concentrated in the Taihang and Yanshan Mountains, has constituted one of the controversial factors exacerbating the haze pollution due to its slowdown of the surface wind speed. We report here an increasing trend of forest cover in BTH during 2001–2013 based on long-term satellite measurements and the impact of the afforestation on the fine particles (PM2.5) level. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast model with chemistry reveal that the afforestation in BTH since 2001 generally deteriorates the haze pollution in BTH to some degree, enhancing PM2.5 concentrations by up to 6 % on average. Complete afforestation or deforestation in the Taihang and Yanshan Mountains would increase or decrease the PM2.5 level within 15 % in BTH. Our model results also suggest that implementing a large ventilation corridor system would not be effective or beneficial to mitigate the haze pollution in Beijing.

scholarly journals Changes in Haze Trends in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region, China, 1980 to 2016

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongke Cai ◽  
Ke Gui ◽  
Quanliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Boundary Layer Height ◽  
Haze Pollution ◽  
Increasing Trend

This study analyzed the long-term variations and trends of haze pollution and its relationships with emission and meteorological factors using the haze days (HDs) data derived from surface observation stations in Sichuan-Chongqing (SCC) region during 1980–2016. The results showed that the multi-year mean number of HDs were 68.7 and 4.9 days for the Sichuan-Basin (SCB) and the rest of SCC region, respectively. The seasonally averaged HDs over SCB reached its maximum in winter (34.7 days), followed by autumn (17.0 days) and spring (11.6 days), and with the minimum observed in summer (5.5 days). The inter-annual variations of HDs in 18 main cities revealed that Zigong, Neijiang, and Yibin, which are located in the southern of SCB, have been the most polluted areas over the SCC region in the past decades. A notable increasing trend in annual HDs over the majority of SCC region was found during 1980–1995, then the trend sharply reversed during 1996–2005, while it increased, fluctuating at some cities after 2006. Seasonally, the increased trend in spring and autumn seems to be the strongest during 1980–1995, whereas the decreased trend in spring and winter was stronger than other seasons during 1996–2005. In addition, a remarkable increasing trend was found in winter since 2006. Using correlation analysis between HDs and emission and meteorological factors during different periods, we found that the variability of local precipitation days (PDs), planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), near-surface wind speed (WS), and relatively humidity (RH) play different roles in influencing the haze pollution change during different historical periods. The joint effect of sharp increase of anthropogenic emissions, reduced PDs and WS intensified the haze pollution in SCB during 1980–1995. In contrast, decreased HDs during 1996–2005 are mainly attributable to the reduction of PM2.5 emission and the increase of PDs (especially in winter). In addition, the decrease of PDs is likely to be responsible for the unexpected increase in winter HDs over SCB in the last decade.

scholarly journals MODELING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT FOREST RESILIENCE IN INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3 ◽  
pp. 263-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Das ◽  
M. D. Behera ◽  
P. S. Roy
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
High Tendency ◽  
North East India ◽  
North East ◽  
Forest Resilience ◽  
The Impact

The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution) Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i) forest, (ii) scrubland, (iii) grassland and (iv) treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9&amp;thinsp;%, 5.05&amp;thinsp;%, 1.89&amp;thinsp;% and 7.79&amp;thinsp;% respectively. Rest of the 65.37&amp;thinsp;% land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5&amp;thinsp;km&amp;thinsp;&amp;times;&amp;thinsp;5&amp;thinsp;km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr) &amp;lt;&amp;thinsp;0.3 in only 0.3&amp;thinsp;% (200&amp;thinsp;km<sup>2</sup>) of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3&amp;thinsp;% &amp;lt;&amp;thinsp;0.5&amp;thinsp;Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92&amp;thinsp;% Pr&amp;thinsp;&amp;lt;&amp;thinsp;0.5) from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

Introduction to pertussis transmission and epidemiological dynamics

Pertussis ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 6-25
Author(s):  
Pejman Rohani ◽  
Samuel V. Scarpino
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pertussis Epidemiology

Resolving the long-term, population-level consequences of changes in pertussis epidemiology, arising from bacterial evolution, shifts in vaccine-induced immunity, or changes in surveillance, are key challenges for devising effective control strategies. This chapter reviews some of the key features of pertussis epidemiology, together with the underlying epidemiological principles that set the context for their interpretation. These include the relationship between the age distribution of cases and pertussis transmission potential, the impact of vaccine uptake on incidence, periodicity and age incidence, as well as spatially explicit recurrent pertussis epidemics and associated extinction frequency. This review highlights some of the predictable and consistent aspects of pertussis epidemiology (e.g. the systematic increase in the inter-epidemic period with the introduction of whole-cell vaccines) and a number of important heterogeneities, including variations in contemporary patterns of incidence and geographic spread.

An Investigation of the Stability Dependence of SST-Induced Vertical Mixing over the Ocean in the Operational Met Office Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingtao Song ◽  
Dudley B. Chelton ◽  
Steven K. Esbensen ◽  
Andrew R. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

This study presents an assessment of the impact of a March 2006 change in the Met Office operational global numerical weather prediction model through the introduction of a nonlocal momentum mixing scheme. From comparisons with satellite observations of surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), it is concluded that the new parameterization had a relatively minor impact on SST-induced changes in sea surface wind speed in the Met Office model in the September and October 2007 monthly averages over the Agulhas Return Current region considered here. The performance of the new parameterization of vertical mixing was evaluated near the surface layer and further through comparisons with results obtained using a wide range of sensitivity of mixing parameterization to stability in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, which is easily adapted to such sensitivity studies. While the new parameterization of vertical mixing improves the Met Office model response to SST in highly unstable (convective) conditions, it is concluded that significantly enhanced vertical mixing in the neutral to moderately unstable conditions (nondimensional stability [Formula: see text] between 0 and −2) typically found over the ocean is required in order for the model surface wind response to SST to match the satellite observations. Likewise, the reduced mixing in stable conditions in the new parameterization is also relatively small; for the range of the gradient Richardson number typically found over the ocean, the mixing was reduced by a maximum of only 10%, which is too small by more than an order of magnitude to be consistent with the satellite observations.

scholarly journals Role of Atmospheric Circulations on Haze Pollution in December 2016

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicong Yin ◽  
Huijun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wind ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Gulf Of Alaska ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Small Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Circulations ◽  
Haze Pollution

Abstract. In the east of China, recent haze pollution has been severe and damaging. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were conductive factors. The number of December haze days over North China and the Huanghuai area has increased sharply since 2010 and was greatest in 2016. During 2016, the most aggressive control measures for anthropogenic emissions were executed from 16–21 December, but the most severe haze pollution still occurred, covering approximately 25 % of the land area of China and lasting for 6 days. The atmospheric circulations must play critical roles. The associated atmospheric circulations that were verified by climatic correlation analysis were a weaker East Asia jet stream in the upper troposphere, a positive phase of the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in the middle troposphere and conductive local weather conditions (lower PBL, small surface wind speed, and abundant moisture) near the surface. The influence of sea surface temperature near the Gulf of Alaska and the subtropical eastern Pacific, snow cover in western Siberia and associated physical processes on haze pollution are also discussed.

scholarly journals Weak Tropical Cyclones Dominate the Poleward Migration of the Annual Mean Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones since 1980

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (17) ◽  
pp. 6873-6882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruifen Zhan ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
The Past ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Sst Warming

The poleward migration of the annual mean location of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has been identified in the major TC basins of the globe over the past 30 years, which is particularly robust over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study has revealed that this poleward migration consists mainly of weak TCs (with maximum sustained surface wind speed less than 33 m s−1) over the WNP. Results show that the location of LMI of weak TCs has migrated about 1° latitude poleward per decade since 1980, while such a trend is considerably smaller for intense TCs. This is found to be linked to a significant decreasing trend of TC genesis in the southern WNP and a significant increasing trend in the northwestern WNP over the past 30 years. It is shown that the greater sea surface temperature (SST) warming at higher latitudes associated with global warming and its associated changes in the large-scale circulation favor more TCs to form in the northern WNP and fewer but stronger TCs to form in the southern WNP.

Assessing reasons for skilful predictions of winter windstorms over the Atlantic/European region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Degenhardt ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch ◽  
Adam Scaife
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Skill Scores

&lt;p&gt;Severe Atlantic winter storms are affecting densely populated regions of Europe (e.g. UK, France, Germany, etc.). Consequently, different parts of the society, financial industry (e.g., insurance) and last but not least the general public are interested in skilful forecasts for the upcoming storm season (usually December to March). To allow for a best possible use of steadily improved seasonal forecasts, the understanding which factors contribute to realise forecast skill is essential and will allow for an assessment whether to expect a forecast to be skilful or not.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study analyses the predictability of the seasonal forecast model of the UK MetOffice, the GloSea5. Windstorm events are identified and tracked following Leckebusch et al. (2008) via the exceedance of the 98&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; percentile of the near surface wind speed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Seasonal predictability of windstorm frequency in comparison to observations (based e.g., on ERA5 reanalysis) are calculated and different statistical methods (skill scores) are compared.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Large scale patterns (e.g., NAO, AO, EAWR, etc.) and dynamical factors (e.g., Eady Growth Rate) are analysed and their predictability is assessed in comparison to storm frequency forecast skill. This will lead to an idea how the forecast skill of windstorms is depending on the forecast skill of forcing factors conditional to the phase of large-scale variability modes. Thus, we deduce information, which factors are most important to generate seasonal forecast skill for severe extra-tropical windstorms.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results can be used to get a better understanding of the resulting skill for the upcoming windstorm season.&lt;/p&gt;

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