scholarly journals A combined analysis of geomagnetic data and cosmic ray secondaries in the September 2017 space weather phenomena studies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Sidorov ◽  
Anatoly Soloviev ◽  
Alexei Gvishiani ◽  
Viktor Getmanov ◽  
Mioara Mandea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Characteristic Function ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Combined Analysis

Abstract. The September 2017 solar flares and the subsequent geomagnetic storms driven by the coronal mass ejections were recognized as the ones of the most powerful space weather events during the current solar cycle. The occurrence of the most powerful solar flares and magnetic storms during the declining phase of a solar cycle (including the current 24th cycle) is a well-known phenomenon. The purpose of this study is to better characterize these events by applying the generalized characteristic function approach for combined analysis of geomagnetic activity indices, total electron content data and secondary cosmic ray data from the muon hodoscope that contained Forbush decreases resulting from solar plasma impacts. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility of identification of low-amplitude specific features in the analyzed data sets, using data from several environmental sources. The data sets for the storm period on September 6–11, 2017, were standardized in a unified way to construct the generalized characteristic function representing the overall dynamics of the data sequence. The new developed technique can help to study various space weather effects and obtain new mutually supportive information on different phases of geomagnetic storm evolution, based on the geomagnetic and other environmental observations in the near-terrestrial space.

scholarly journals Data Assimilation for Ionospheric Space-Weather Forecasting in the Presence of Model Bias

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Durazo ◽  
Eric J. Kostelich ◽  
Alex Mahalov
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Mean Square Errors

The dynamics of many models of physical systems depend on the choices of key parameters. This paper describes the results of some observing system simulation experiments using a first-principles model of the Earth’s ionosphere, the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM), which is driven by parameters that describe solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and the state of the thermosphere. Of particular interest is the response of the ionosphere (and predictions of space weather generally) during geomagnetic storms. Errors in the overall specification of driving parameters for the TIEGCM (and similar dynamical models) may be especially large during geomagnetic storms, because they represent significant perturbations away from more typical interactions of the earth-sun system. Such errors can induce systematic biases in model predictions of the ionospheric state and pose difficulties for data assimilation methods, which attempt to infer the model state vector from a collection of sparse and/or noisy measurements. Typical data assimilation schemes assume that the model produces an unbiased estimate of the truth. This paper tests one potential approach to handle the case where there is some systematic bias in the model outputs. Our focus is on the TIEGCM when it is driven with solar and magnetospheric inputs that are systematically misspecified. We report results from observing system experiments in which synthetic electron density vertical profiles are generated at locations representative of the operational FormoSat-3/COSMIC satellite observing platforms during a moderate (G2, Kp = 6) geomagnetic storm event on September 26–27, 2011. The synthetic data are assimilated into the TIEGCM using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter with a state-augmentation approach to estimate a small set of bias-correction factors. Two representative processes for the time evolution of the bias in the TIEGCM are tested: one in which the bias is constant and another in which the bias has an exponential growth and decay phase in response to strong geomagnetic forcing. We show that even simple approximations of the TIEGCM bias can reduce root-mean-square errors in 1-h forecasts of total electron content (a key ionospheric variable) by 20–45%, compared to no bias correction. These results suggest that our approach is computationally efficient and can be further refined to improve short-term predictions (∼1-h) of ionospheric dynamics during geomagnetic storms.

scholarly journals Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 2101-2110 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. V. S. Rama Rao ◽  
S. Gopi Krishna ◽  
J. Vara Prasad ◽  
S. N. V. S. Prasad ◽  
D. S. V. V. D. Prasad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Navigation Systems ◽  
Dual Frequency ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Gps Receivers ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Phase Slips

Abstract. The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere) comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS) that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena. Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB) L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

scholarly journals Solar Activity and Geomagnetic Storm Effects on GPS Ionospheric TEC over Ethiopia

1970 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 276-300
Author(s):  
Msganaw Aragaw ◽  
Abraha Gebiregiorgis ◽  
Kassa Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Solar Radio Flux ◽  
Cycle 24

Ionospheric GPS total electron content (TEC) is an important parameter to monitor for possible Space Weather impacts. The effects of solar activity on TEC at low latitude stations with geographic locations (latitude, longitude) of Addis Ababa (9.040 N, 38.770 E) and Bahir Dar (11.60 N, 37.360 E) in Ethiopia, East Africa in the year of 2015 around peak of solar cycle 24 has been carried out. The data from the two stations was used to study the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations of TEC and its dependence with solar activity and space weather effects. These observations were investigated and further discussed with an analysis of Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) and Ap indices, solar radio flux (F10.7cm) and sunspot number during the period of 2015. During the period of low or high sunspot number, that provided GPS ionospheric TEC builds up slowly or quickly. The obtained results reveal TEC undergoes diurnal and seasonal variations, daily variation of TEC value at both stations sharply increases to its peak from 0900 -1500 UT and decreases around 1600 - 0700 UT. Seasonal variations showed that TEC maximizes during the equinoctial months and least in summer over the two stations. In all seasons the maximum value of TEC in Addis Ababa is higher. The effects of geomagnetic storms on TEC values have been found negative and positive output.  

scholarly journals Extreme Solar Events’ Impact on GPS Positioning Results

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 3624
Author(s):  
Janis Balodis ◽  
Madara Normand ◽  
Inese Varna
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Geomagnetic Latitude ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Cycle Slips ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

The main objective of the present study is to perform an analysis of the space weather impact on the Latvian CORS (Continuously Operating GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Stations) GPS (Global Positioning System) observations, in situations of geomagnetic storms, sun flares and extreme TEC (Total Electron Content) and ROTI (Rate of change of TEC index) levels, by analyzing the results, i.e., 90-second kinematic post-processing solutions, obtained using Bernese GNSS Software v5.2. To complete this study, the 90-second kinematic time series of all the Latvian CORS for the period from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed, and a correlation between time series outliers (hereinafter referred to as faults) and extreme space weather events was sought. Over 36 million position determination solutions were examined, 0.6% of the solutions appear to be erroneous, 0.13% of the solutions have errors greater than 1 m, 0.05% have errors greater than 10 m, and 0.01% of the solutions show errors greater than 50 meters. The correlation between faulty results, TEC and ROTI levels and Bernese GNSS Software v5.2 detected cycle slips was computed. This also includes an analysis of fault distribution depending on the geomagnetic latitude as well as faults distribution simultaneously occurring in some stations, etc. This work is the statistical analysis of the Latvian CORS security, mainly focusing on geomagnetic extreme events and ionospheric scintillations in the region of Latvia, with a latitude around 57° N.

scholarly journals Plasmasphere and Topside Ionosphere Reconstruction using METOP Satellite Data during Geomagnetic Storms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabricio dos Santos Prol ◽  
Mainul Hoque ◽  
Arthur Amaral Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Electron Density ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Tomographic Reconstruction ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Low Earth Orbit ◽  
Topside Ionosphere ◽  
Reconstruction Technique ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron

As part of the space weather monitoring, the response of the ionosphere and plasmasphere to geomagnetic storms is typically under continuous supervision by operational services. Fortunately, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers on board low Earth orbit satellites provides a unique opportunity for developing image representations that can capture the global distribution of the electron density in the plasmasphere and topside ionosphere. Among the difficulties of plasmaspheric imaging based on GNSS measurements, the development of procedures to invert the Total Electron Content (TEC) into electron density distributions remains as a challenging task. In this study, a new tomographic reconstruction technique is presented to estimate the electron density from TEC data along the METOP (Meteorological Operational) satellites. The proposed method is evaluated during four geomagnetic storms to check the capabilities of the tomography for space weather monitoring. The investigation shows that the developed method can successfully capture and reconstruct well-known enhancement and decrease of electron density variabilities during storms. The comparison with in-situ electron densities has shown an improvement around 11% and a better description of plasma variabilities due to the storms compared to the background. Our study also reveals that the plasmasphere TEC contribution to ground-based TEC may vary 10 to 60% during geomagnetic storms, and the contribution tends to reduce during the storm-recovery phase

scholarly journals The Comparison of Predicting Storm-Time Ionospheric TEC by Three Methods: ARIMA, LSTM, and Seq2Seq

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongxin Tang ◽  
Fantao Zeng ◽  
Zhou Chen ◽  
Jing-Song Wang ◽  
Chun-Ming Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Geomagnetic Storm ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Extreme Condition ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Navigation Systems ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Total Electron

Ionospheric structure usually changes dramatically during a strong geomagnetic storm period, which will significantly affect the short-wave communication and satellite navigation systems. It is critically important to make accurate ionospheric predictions under the extreme space weather conditions. However, ionospheric prediction is always a challenge, and pure physical methods often fail to get a satisfactory result since the ionospheric behavior varies greatly with different geomagnetic storms. In this paper, in order to find an effective prediction method, one traditional mathematical method (autoregressive integrated moving average—ARIMA) and two deep learning algorithms (long short-term memory—LSTM and sequence-to-sequence—Seq2Seq) are investigated for the short-term predictions of ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) under different geomagnetic storm conditions based on the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) madrigal observation from 2001 to 2016. Under the extreme condition, the performance limitation of these methods can be found. When the storm is stronger, the effective prediction horizon of the methods will be shorter. The statistical analysis shows that the LSTM can achieve the best prediction accuracy and is robust for the accurate trend prediction of the strong geomagnetic storms. In contrast, ARIMA and Seq2Seq have relatively poor performance for the prediction of the strong geomagnetic storms. This study brings new insights to the deep learning applications in the space weather forecast.

scholarly journals The influence of space weather on ionospheric total electron content during the 23rd solar cycle

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. A25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Bergeot ◽  
Ioanna Tsagouri ◽  
Carine Bruyninx ◽  
Juliette Legrand ◽  
Jean-Marie Chevalier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Total Electron Content ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
23Rd Solar Cycle ◽  
Ionospheric Total Electron Content

scholarly journals Sub-Auroral and Mid-Latitude GNSS ROTI Performance during Solar Cycle 24 Geomagnetic Disturbed Periods: Towards Storm’s Early Sensing

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 4325
Author(s):  
Kacper Kotulak ◽  
Andrzej Krankowski ◽  
Adam Froń ◽  
Paweł Flisek ◽  
Ningbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Plasma Density ◽  
Ionospheric Plasma ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Content Index ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Ionospheric Plasma Density ◽  
Cycle 24

Geomagnetic storms—triggered by the interaction between Earth’s magnetosphere and interplanetary magnetic field, driven by solar activity—are important for many Earth-bound aspects of life. Serious events may impact the electroenergetic infrastructure, but even weaker storms generate noticeable irregularities in the density of ionospheric plasma. Ionosphere electron density gradients interact with electromagnetic radiation in the radiofrequency domain, affecting sub- and trans-ionospheric transmissions. The main objective of the manuscript is to find key features of the storm-induced plasma density behaviour irregularities in regard to the event’s magnitude and general geomagnetic conditions. We also aim to set the foundations for the mid-latitude ionospheric plasma density now-casting irregularities. In the manuscript, we calculate the GPS+GLONASS-derived rate of TEC (total electron content) index (ROTI) for the meridional sector of 10–20∘ E, covering the latitudes between 40 and 70∘ N. Such an approach reveals equatorward spread of the auroral TEC irregularities reaching down to mid-latitudes. We have assessed the ROTI performance for 57 moderate-to-severe storms that occurred during solar cycle 24 and analyzed their behaviors in regard to the geomagnetic conditions (described by Kp, Dst, AE, Sym-H and PC indices).

scholarly journals First joint observations of space weather events over Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 1347-1360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor De la Luz ◽  
J. Americo Gonzalez-Esparza ◽  
Maria A. Sergeeva ◽  
Pedro Corona-Romero ◽  
L Xavier González ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Radio Burst ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbances ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Radio Communications

Abstract. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) and National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE in Spanish) were organized in 2014 and in 2016, respectively, to provide space weather monitoring and alerts, as well as scientific research in Mexico. In this work, we present the results of the first joint observations of two events (22 June and 29 September 2015) with our local network of instruments and their related products. This network includes the MEXART radio telescope (solar flare and radio burst), the Compact Astronomical Low-frequency, Low-cost Instrument for Spectroscopy in Transportable Observatories (CALLISTO) at the MEXART station (solar radio burst), the Mexico City Cosmic Ray Observatory (cosmic ray fluxes), GPS receiver networks (ionospheric disturbances), and the Teoloyucan Geomagnetic Observatory (geomagnetic field). The observations show that we detected significant space weather effects over the Mexican territory: geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances (22 June 2015), variations in cosmic ray fluxes, and also radio communications' interferences (29 September 2015). The effects of these perturbations were registered, for the first time, using space weather products by SCiESMEX: total electron content (TEC) maps, regional geomagnetic index Kmex, radio spectrographs of low frequency, and cosmic ray fluxes. These results prove the importance of monitoring space weather phenomena in the region and the need to strengthening the instrumentation network. Keywords. Solar physics, astrophysics, and astronomy (instruments and techniques)

scholarly journals Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. P. Verkhoglyadova ◽  
B. T. Tsurutani ◽  
A. J. Mannucci ◽  
M. G. Mlynczak ◽  
L. A. Hunt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Emission Data ◽  
Total Electron

Abstract. We study solar wind–ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) – 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10–22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008–2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008–2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind–ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind–ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

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