scholarly journals Statistical analysis of very high-resolution precipitation data and relation to atmospheric circulation in Central Germany

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 69-73
Author(s):  
Annika Brieber ◽  
Andreas Hoy
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The cumulative occurrence of heavy precipitation and flood events during recent years in various Central European locations emphasises the urgent need to improve extreme rainfall observations and forecasts. Precipitation gauges based on a weighing system allow the recording of intense short-term precipitation events with a very high temporal resolution (down to 1 min). In this study, observational data that were collected during the period 2000 to 2016 for 126 stations of two corresponding measuring networks in the Central German state of Hesse were investigated for the first time to answer the following questions: (1) Are the recorded high-resolution precipitation data plausible and comparable between both networks? (2) Which atmospheric circulation patterns were specifically prone to produce short-term intense precipitation events? Although the two networks are equipped with the same measuring technology, systematic differences concerning their maximum 1 min precipitation amounts occur, which may be explained by different instrumental software settings. We could minimise those discrepancies by accumulating the existing 1 min data to 15 min. Subsequently, the 15 min daily maximum values and accumulated daily sums were analysed regarding the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, based on the well-known “Großwetterlagen” classification. We identified a clear connection between atmospheric circulation and heavy precipitation over Hesse, while indicating some differences between daily (24 h) and sub-daily (15 min) events. High daily precipitation sums often relate to westerlies and central cyclones, while intense short-term events are frequently generated by warm-humid continental air from southern and eastern Europe as well as trough conditions, where the trough's core is found west of the study area. Our results underline the importance of expanding and enhancing high-resolution precipitation observations in Germany as well as other countries.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown and Atmospheric Circulation on the Air Quality in Wuhan During Early 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 299 ◽  
pp. 02011
Author(s):  
Youyong Xie ◽  
Xiefei Zhi
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Previous studies indicated that the air quality was improved in Wuhan during COVID-19 lockdown. However, the impact of atmospheric general circulation on the changes of air quality has not been taken into account. The present study aims to discuss the improvement of air quality in Wuhan and its possible reasons during COVID-19 lockdown. The results showed that all air pollutants except O3 decreased in Wuhan during early 2020. The occurrence days of A, C, W and NW types’ circulation pattern during early 2020 are more than those during the same period of 1979-2020. The occurrence days of SW type’s circulation pattern is slightly less than those during early 1979-2020. With more occurrence days of these dominant atmospheric circulation patterns, the number of polluted days could rise in Wuhan during early 2020. Nevertheless, this scenario didn’t occur. The COVID-19 lockdown did improve the air quality in Wuhan during early 2020.

scholarly journals Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 777-784 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Horton ◽  
M. Jaboyedoff ◽  
R. Metzger ◽  
C. Obled ◽  
R. Marty
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Analogue Method ◽  
Western Swiss Alps ◽  
Time Extrapolation ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

scholarly journals Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3235-3248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
S. El Adlouni ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

scholarly journals Decadal Variability in the Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on the Winter Climate of Northern Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 1005-1021
Author(s):  
Gareth J. Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temporal Consistency ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Dominant Pattern ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Northern Russia ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Arctic continues to warm at a much faster rate than the global average. One process contributing to “Arctic amplification” involves changes in low-frequency macroscale atmospheric circulation patterns and their consequent influence on regional climate. Here, using ERA5 data, we examine decadal changes in the impact of seven such patterns on winter near-surface temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PPN) in northern Russia and calculate the temporal consistency of any statistically significant relationships. We demonstrate that the 40-yr climatology hides considerable decadal variability in the spatial extent of such circulation pattern–climate relationships across the region, with few areas where their temporal consistency exceeds 60%. This is primarily a response to the pronounced decadal expansion/contraction and/or mobility of the circulation patterns’ centers of action. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant pattern (having the highest temporal consistency) affecting SAT west of the Urals. Farther east, the Scandinavian (SCA), Polar/Eurasian (POL), and West Pacific patterns are successively the dominant pattern influencing SAT across the West Siberian Plains, Central Siberian Plateau, and mountains of Far East Siberia, respectively. From west to east, the SCA, POL, and Pacific–North American patterns exert the most consistent decadal influence on PPN. The only temporally invariant significant decadal relationships occur between the NAO and SAT and the SCA and PPN in small areas of the North European Plain.

scholarly journals Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 3625-3658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
S. El Adlouni ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Maghreb countries located in North Africa are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean Basin, this study provides the first regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and inter-annual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the opposite, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

scholarly journals Dominant Modes of Moisture Flux Anomalies over North America

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Praveen Kumar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Anomaly Field ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Complex Eof ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract This study investigates the principal modes of seasonal moisture flux transport over North America, analyzing their possible dependence on large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. It uses 23 yr (1979–2001) of 6-hourly data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis I project. Complex empirical orthogonal function (complex-EOF) analysis is implemented on the vertically integrated and seasonally averaged moisture flux, to identify the dominant modes. For every season, the characteristic spatial pattern of the two most dominant modes is compared to the geopotential height anomaly field and precipitation anomaly field using correlation analysis. The two dominant winter modes capture the variability in the moisture flux field associated with extreme precipitation events over the western coast of the United States. The first winter mode captures 52% of the variability of the season and is related to the strong ENSO events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 (El Niño) and 1989 (La Niña). The second winter mode captures anomalous high moisture flux over the southwest related to the east Pacific teleconnection pattern. The intense moisture transport associated with high-precipitation events in the central United States (including the 1993 flood) is captured by summer mode 1, while the second mode of the summer season captures the moisture flux variability related to the 1983 and 1988 droughts. The results show that these summer flood and drought events are characterized by very different moisture flux anomalies and are not the positive and negative phases of a given mode. The use of complex-EOF analysis captures extreme hydrologic events as characteristic modes of interannual variability and allows a better understanding of the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with these events.

scholarly journals TRU-NET: a deep learning approach to high resolution prediction of rainfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rilwan A. Adewoyin ◽  
Peter Dueben ◽  
Peter Watson ◽  
Yulan He ◽  
Ritabrata Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractClimate models (CM) are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the risk of floods and heavy precipitation events. However, these numerical simulators produce outputs with low spatial resolution that exhibit difficulties representing precipitation events accurately. This is mainly due to computational limitations on the spatial resolution used when simulating multi-scale weather dynamics in the atmosphere. To improve the prediction of high resolution precipitation we apply a Deep Learning (DL) approach using input data from a reanalysis product, that is comparable to a climate model’s output, but can be directly related to precipitation observations at a given time and location. Further, our input excludes local precipitation, but includes model fields (weather variables) that are more predictable and generalizable than local precipitation. To this end, we present TRU-NET (Temporal Recurrent U-Net), an encoder-decoder model featuring a novel 2D cross attention mechanism between contiguous convolutional-recurrent layers to effectively model multi-scale spatio-temporal weather processes. We also propose a non-stochastic variant of the conditional-continuous (CC) loss function to capture the zero-skewed patterns of rainfall. Experiments show that our models, trained with our CC loss, consistently attain lower RMSE and MAE scores than a DL model prevalent in precipitation downscaling and outperform a state-of-the-art dynamical weather model. Moreover, by evaluating the performance of our model under various data formulation strategies, for the training and test sets, we show that there is enough data for our deep learning approach to output robust, high-quality results across seasons and varying regions.

scholarly journals Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with deep persistent slab avalanches in the western United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 757-774
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Schauer ◽  
Jordy Hendrikx ◽  
Karl W. Birkeland ◽  
Cary J. Mock
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Synoptic Type ◽  
Additional Tool ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Unique Distribution ◽  
In The Beginning

Abstract. Deep persistent slab avalanches are capable of destroying infrastructure and are usually unsurvivable for those who are caught. Formation of a snowpack conducive to deep persistent slab avalanches is typically driven by meteorological conditions occurring in the beginning weeks to months of the winter season, and yet the avalanche event may not occur for several weeks to months later. While predicting the exact timing of the release of deep persistent slab avalanches is difficult, onset of avalanche activity is commonly preceded by rapid warming, heavy precipitation, or high winds. This work investigates the synoptic drivers of deep persistent slab avalanches at three sites in the western USA with long records: Bridger Bowl, Montana; Jackson, Wyoming; and Mammoth Mountain, California. We use self-organizing maps to generate 20 synoptic types that summarize 5899 daily 500 mbar geopotential height maps for the winters (November–March) of 1979/80–2017/18. For each of the three locations, we identify major and minor deep persistent slab avalanche seasons and analyze the number of days represented by each synoptic type during the beginning (November–January) of the major and minor seasons. We also examine the number of days assigned to each synoptic type during the 72 h preceding deep persistent slab avalanche activity for both dry and wet slab events. Each of the three sites exhibits a unique distribution of the number of days assigned to each synoptic type during November–January of major and minor seasons and for the 72 h period preceding deep persistent slab avalanche activity. This work identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns contributing to deep persistent slab instabilities and the patterns that commonly precede deep persistent slab avalanche activity. By identifying these patterns, we provide an improved understanding of deep persistent slab avalanches and an additional tool to anticipate the timing of these difficult-to-predict events.

scholarly journals African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin: 11 year characterization of atmospheric circulation patterns and dust source areas

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 5495-5533 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Salvador ◽  
S. Alonso ◽  
J. Pey ◽  
B. Artíñano ◽  
J. J. de Bustos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
African Dust ◽  
Western Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Impact Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The occurrence of African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin were identified on an 11 year period (2001–2011). PM10 daily data from nine regional background air quality monitoring sites across the study area were compiled and the net dust load transported during each event was estimated. Then, the main atmospheric circulation patterns causing the transport of African air masses, were characterized by mean of an objective classification methodology of atmospheric variables fields. Next, the potential source areas of mineral dust, associated to each circulation pattern were identified by trajectory statistical methods. Finally, an impact index was calculated to estimate the incidence of the African dust outbreaks produced during each circulation pattern, on the levels of dust load in PM10 concentrations recorded in the different regions. Our results indicate that the values of the impact index and the areas affected by African dust, strongly depended on the atmospheric circulation pattern. Four circulation types were obtained by the classification procedure. Two of them (CT-1 and CT-4) occurred predominantly during the warm season, bringing dust from areas of Algeria, Tunisia, Western Sahara, western Libya and Mauritania. African dust outbreaks produced during the CT-4 were the most frequent across the period of study, generating the highest impact index over southern, central and eastern regions of the Iberian Peninsula as well as over the Balearic Islands. Conversely, the events caused by the CT-1 encompassed the highest impact index over the western areas of the Iberian Peninsula. The two remaining circulation types (CT-2 and CT-3) were more frequently observed during the spring season. The prevailing flows generated by these two atmospheric circulation patterns, carried mineral dust from areas of Algeria, Tunisia and Western Sahara, giving rise to higher values of the impact index from eastern to western areas of the western Mediterranean basin.

scholarly journals Investigating changes in atmospheric circulation patterns connected to extreme precipitation in Norway

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karianne Ødemark ◽  
Malte Müller ◽  
Ole Einar Tveito ◽  
Cyril Palerme
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Good Description ◽  
Construction Technique ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Extreme precipitation events that lead to excess surface water and flood are becoming an amplifying societal cost as a result of both the increasing precipitation amounts in recent years and urbanization. Knowledge about extreme precipitation events is important for the ability to predict them, but also to know how often they occur with various intensities in order to estimate design values for constructions and critical infrastructure. A good description of extreme precipitaton is a challenge since observation networks are often too sparse to describe the spatial structure of precipitation, and the highest amounts are most likely not captured by a precipitation gauge. For the study of extreme precipitation events by means of statistical analysis, long timesteries are required, which is a major challenge when using conventional or new observational data records.  Here, a data set constructed from the numerical seasonal prediction system at ECMWF, SEAS5, has been applied to evaluate mechanisms controlling extreme precipitation events. The construction technique gives the ability to increase the event sample size compared to conventional data sets. We analyze 3-day  maximum precipitation events in the September-October-November season for an area on the west coast of Norway, an area subject to the largest precipitation amounts in Europe. A principal component analysis of the 500 hPa geopotential anomaly has been performed to identify atmospheric circulation patterns related to the extreme precipitation events. We find that two of the EOFs are related to precipitation with high return values for the selected area. These two EOFs have a significant trend over the data period, but with opposing signs. We also investigate the connection between both sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration in the Barents-Kara sea and the occurrence of extreme precipitation.</p>

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