scholarly journals Declining risk of ozone impacts on vegetation in Europe 1990–2050 due to reduced precursor emissions in a changed climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 625-655
Author(s):  
J. Klingberg ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
P. E. Karlsson ◽  
J. Langner ◽  
H. Pleijel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ozone Exposure ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Ozone Uptake ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Ozone Precursor

Abstract. The impacts of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emission on ozone exposure (AOT40) of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. In addition, meteorological conditions influencing stomatal uptake of ozone were analysed to find out if climate change is likely to affect the risk for ozone damage to vegetation. Climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario were combined with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemical Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. Provided that the climate projections are realistic and the emission reductions of the emission scenario are undertaken, the ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe will be significantly reduced between the two time periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059. This decline in AOT40 is larger than the reduction in average ozone concentrations. The reduction is driven by the emission reductions assumed by the RCP4.5 emission scenario, rather than changes in the climate. Higher temperatures in a future climate will result in a prolonged growing season over Europe as well as larger temperature sums during the growing season. Both the extended growing season and higher temperatures may enhance ozone uptake by plants in colder parts of Europe. The future climate suggested by the regional climate model will be dryer in terms of higher vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and lower soil moisture in southern Europe, which may reduce ozone uptake. VPD and soil moisture was not projected to change in north and north-west Europe to an extent that would influence ozone uptake by vegetation. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the risk for ozone effects on vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.

scholarly journals European summer surface ozone 1990–2100

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 10097-10105 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Langner ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
C. Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emission on summer surface ozone in Europe was studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O3 and reduced European emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations. The European O3 precursor emission reductions in RCP4.5 are substantial and it remains to be seen if these reductions can be achieved. There is substantial decadal variability in the simulations forced by climate variability which is important to consider when looking at changes in surface O3 concentrations, especially until the first half of the 21st century. In order to account for changes in background O3 future regional model studies should couple global (hemispheric) and regional CTMs forced by a consistent set of meteorological and precursor emission data.

scholarly journals Declining ozone exposure of European vegetation under climate change and reduced precursor emissions

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 5269-5283 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Klingberg ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
P. E. Karlsson ◽  
J. Langner ◽  
H. Pleijel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Exposure ◽  
Critical Levels ◽  
Eu Directive ◽  
Model Match ◽  
The Future ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. The impacts of changes in ozone precursor emissions as well as climate change on the future ozone exposure of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. The ozone exposure is expressed as AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb O3) as well as PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold Y). A new method is suggested to express how the length of the period during the year when coniferous and evergreen trees are sensitive to ozone might be affected by climate change. Ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were combined with climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. The ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe expressed as AOT40 was projected to be substantially reduced between the periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059 to levels which are well below critical levels used for vegetation in the EU directive 2008/50/EC as well as for crops and forests used in the LRTAP convention, despite that the future climate resulted in prolonged yearly ozone sensitive periods. The reduction in AOT40 was mainly driven by the emission reductions, not changes in the climate. For the toxicologically more relevant POD1 index the projected reductions were smaller, but still significant. The values for POD1 for the time period 2040–2059 were not projected to decrease to levels which are below critical levels for forest trees, represented by Norway spruce. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the future risk for ozone effects on the European vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of ocean acidification on our future climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3965-3983 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Matear ◽  
A. Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Biogeochemical Cycles ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Ocean acidification (OA) is the consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and it is occurring in conjunction with global warming. Observational studies show that OA will impact ocean biogeochemical cycles. Here, we use an Earth system model under the RCP8.5 emission scenario to evaluate and quantify the first-order impacts of OA on marine biogeochemical cycles, and its potential feedback on our future climate. We find that OA impacts have only a small impact on the future atmospheric CO2 (less than 45 ppm) and global warming (less than a 0.25 K) by 2100. While the climate change feedbacks are small, OA impacts may significantly alter the distribution of biological production and remineralisation, which would alter the dissolved oxygen distribution in the ocean interior. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of OA will not be through its impact on climate change, but on how it impacts the flow of energy in marine ecosystems, which may significantly impact their productivity, composition and diversity.

scholarly journals Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2183) ◽  
pp. 20200188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Dentener ◽  
Lisa Emberson ◽  
Stefano Galmarini ◽  
Giovanni Cappelli ◽  
Anisoara Irimescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
International Shipping ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Ozone Precursor

We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30% and 50% for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80% for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12  ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50% global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2% and 8%. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Growing Season in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (33) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel E. Christiansen ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
Lauren E. Hay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Total Length

AbstractUnderstanding the effects of climate change on the vegetative growing season is key to quantifying future hydrologic water budget conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey modeled changes in future growing season length at 14 basins across 11 states. Simulations for each basin were generated using five general circulation models with three emission scenarios as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, watershed model developed to simulate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on watershed response. PRMS was modified to include a growing season calculation in this study. The growing season was examined for trends in the total length (annual), as well as changes in the timing of onset (spring) and the end (fall) of the growing season. The results showed an increase in the annual growing season length in all 14 basins, averaging 27–47 days for the three emission scenarios. The change in the spring and fall growing season onset and end varied across the 14 basins, with larger increases in the total length of the growing season occurring in the mountainous regions and smaller increases occurring in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast regions. The Clear Creek basin, 1 of the 14 basins in this study, was evaluated to examine the growing season length determined by emission scenario, as compared to a growing season length fixed baseline condition. The Clear Creek basin showed substantial variation in hydrologic responses, including streamflow, as a result of growing season length determined by emission scenario.

scholarly journals The impacts of future climate change and sulphur emission reductions on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, Ontario

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 3027-3054
Author(s):  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. N. Futter ◽  
P. J. Dillon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Plastic Lake

Abstract. Climate-induced drought events have a significant influence on sulphate export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying the recovery of surface waters from acidification. In the current study, a model chain that employed a statistical downscaling model, a hydrological model and two hydrochemical models was used to forecast the chemical recovery of Plastic Lake sub-catchment 1 (PC1) from acidification under proposed deposition reductions and the A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Any predicted recovery in stream acid neutralising capacity and pH owing to deposition reductions were clearly offset by large acid effluxes from climate-induced drought events. By 2100, ANC is predicted to show large variations ranging between 10 and −30 μmolc L−1. Similarly, predicted pH in 2100 is lower (>0.05 of a pH unit) than the value simulated for 2000 (pH 4.35). Despite emission reductions, the future scenario paints a bleak picture of reacidification at PC1 to levels commensurate with those of the late 1970s. The principal process behind this reacidification is the oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur compounds in wetlands during periods of low-flow (or drought), with subsequent efflux of sulphate upon re-wetting. Simulated catchment runoff under the A2 emissions scenario predictes increased intensity and frequency of low-flow events from approximately 2030 onwards. The Integrated Catchments model for Carbon indicated that stream DOC concentrations at PC1 will also increase under the future climate scenario, with temperature being the principal driver. Despite the predicted (significant) increase in DOC, pH is not predicted to further decline (beyond the climate-induced oxidation scenario), instead pH shows greater variability throughout the simulation. As echoed by many recent studies, hydrochemical models and model frameworks need to incorporate the drivers and mechanisms (at appropriate time-scales) that affect the key biogeochemical processes to reliably predict the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals European summer surface ozone 1990–2100

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 7705-7726 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Langner ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
C. Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emissions on summer surface ozone in Europe were studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O3 and reduced emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations, although on the British Isles the combined effect is an increase. Due to substantial decadal variability in the simulations it is important to study averages over sufficiently long time periods in order to be able to extract robust signals of climate change impacts on surface O3 concentrations.

SPAGETTA Weather Generator Linked with Climate Models May Produce Weather Series for Future Climate 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Dubrovsky ◽  
Ondrej Lhotka ◽  
Jiri Miksovsky ◽  
Petr Stepanek ◽  
Jan Meitner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Stochastic weather generators (WGs) are tools for producing weather series, which are statistically similar to the real world weather series. The synthetic series may represent both present and changed (not only the future) climate. In the latter case, WG parameters derived from the observed weather series are modified with climate change scenario, which is typically based on RCM or GCM simulations. As the GCM/RCM simulations are very demanding on computer resources, the numbers of simulations made for individual possible emission scenarios are limited, especially for some (mostly the less probable ones) emission scenarios (e.g. RCP 2.6). Still, many climate change impact studies try to give projections of the CC impacts assuming uncertainties coming from all possible sources, including the modeling uncertainty and  uncertainties in emissions & climate sensitivity. To allow generation of weather series fitting the projection of any GCM forced by any emission scenario, we use a pattern scaling approach, in which the standardized climate change scenario (consisting of changes in climatic characteristic related to 1ºC change in global mean temperature) derived from a given GCM is multiplied by a change in global mean temperature (dTg) projected (for a selected emission scenario and climate sensitivity) by a simple climate model MAGICC.</p><p>In our contribution, we will demonstrate the use of the generator (using SPAGETTA WG, which is our multi-site multi-variate parametric daily WG) in probabilistic projection of future changes in selected climatic characteristics of temperature (T) and precipitation (P); we will focus on spatial hot/cold/dry/wet/hot-dry/hot-wet/cold-dry/cold-wet spells). Standardized climate change scenarios will be derived from multiple GCMs (taken from CMIP5 database) and scaled by dTg projected by MAGICC. Effects of the three above-named sources of uncertainty, as well as the effects of changes in individual statistical characteristics (the means & the site-specific variabilities & the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variability of both T and P) will be assessed.</p><p>Acknowledgements: Projects GRIMASA (Czech Science Foundation, project no. 18-15958S) and SustES (European Structural and Investment Funds, project no. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797).</p>

scholarly journals Climate change scenario analysis for Baro-Akobo river basin, Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teressa Negassa Muleta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Background Several water resources projects are under planning and implementation in the Baro-Akobo basin. Currently, the planning and management of these projects is relied on historical data. So far, hardly any study has addressed water resources management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change in the basin. The main bottleneck to this has been lack of future climate change scenario base data over the basin. The current study is aimed at developing future climate change scenario for the basin. To this end, Regional Climate Model (RCM) downscaled data for A1B emission scenario was employed and bias corrected at basin level using observed data. Future climate change scenario was developed using the bias corrected RCM output data with the basic objective of producing baseline data for sustainable water resources development and management in the basin. Result The projected future climate shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures; however, for the case of precipitation it does not manifest a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in the next century. The projected mean annual temperature increases from the baseline period by an amount of 1 °C and 3.5 °C respectively, in 2040s and 2090s. Similarly, evapotranspiration has been found to increase to an extent of 25% over the basin. The precipitation is predicted to experience a mean annual decrease of 1.8% in 2040s and an increase of 1.8% in 2090s over the basin for the A1B emission scenario. Conclusion The study resulted in a considerable future change in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) on the monthly and seasonal basis. These have an implication on hydrologic extremes-drought and flooding, and demands dynamic water resources management. Hence the study gives a valuable base information for water resources planning and managers, particularly for modeling reservoir inflow-climate change relations, to adapt reservoir operation rules to the real-time changing climate.

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