scholarly journals Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 661-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Klein ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Mark A. J. Curran ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
Sentia Goursaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Past ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ18O–temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ18O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east–west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.

scholarly journals Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past two millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Klein ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Mark A. J. Curran ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
Sentia Goursaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weak Link ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Past ◽  
Recent Warming ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: 1) the number of high resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the Antarctic Plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; 2) the short instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; 3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial and time scales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential of reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last two millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows in theory taking into account changes in the δ18O-temperature link through time and space. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical ones that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. The reconstruction skill is however higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ18O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared to the simulations without data assimilation, especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows reconciling models and direct observations by reconstructing the East-West contrast regarding the recent temperature trends, indicating that internal variability likely plays a major role in driving this heterogeneous recent warming. This is further supported by the large spread of individual PMIP/CMIP model realizations regarding the recent warming pattern. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the produced time series. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical one have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm it in a realistic setup.

scholarly journals Characteristics of ice rises and ice rumples in Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land, Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (260) ◽  
pp. 1064-1078
Author(s):  
Vikram Goel ◽  
Kenichi Matsuoka ◽  
Cesar Deschamps Berger ◽  
Ian Lee ◽  
Jørgen Dall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Past ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractIce rises and rumples, locally grounded features adjacent to ice shelves, are relatively small yet play significant roles in Antarctic ice dynamics. Their roles generally depend upon their location within the ice shelf and the stage of the ice-sheet retreat or advance. Large, long-stable ice rises can be excellent sites for deep ice coring and paleoclimate study of the Antarctic coast and the Southern Ocean, while small ice rises tend to respond more promptly and can be used to reveal recent changes in regional mass balance. The coasts of Dronning Maud Land (DML) and Enderby Land in East Antarctica are abundant with these features. Here we review existing knowledge, presenting an up-to-date status of research in these regions with focus on ice rises and rumples. We use regional datasets (satellite imagery, surface mass balance and ice thickness) to analyze the extent and surface morphology of ice shelves and characteristic timescales of ice rises. We find that large parts of DML have been changing over the past several millennia. Based on our findings, we highlight ice rises suitable for drilling ice cores for paleoclimate studies as well as ice rises suitable for deciphering ice dynamics and evolution in the region.

scholarly journals Air Temperature and Snow Accumulation in the Antarctic Peninsula During the Past 50 Years (Abstract)

1988 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 207-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Peel ◽  
Robert Mulvaney
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Noise Factors

Trends in climate affecting the West Antarctic ice sheet may be detected first in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Although the area contains the most comprehensive weather records for any part of Antarctica, reliable snow-accumulation data are lacking.Mainly as a result of the large snow-accumulation rate in the region (typically in the range 4.0–10.0 kg m−2 a−1), stratigraphie evidence of climate derived from ice cores can be resolved in much greater detail than is possible over most of the continent. Ice cores have been drilled at two sites, representing the extremes of climate type encountered in the region. A 133 m core has been obtained from Dolleman Island (70°35.2′S, 60°55.5′W) to represent the continental-type climate of the Weddell coast region, and an 87 m core has been obtained from the Palmer Land plateau (74°01′S, 70°38′W) to represent the more maritime regime of the west coast and central areas. Replicated cores were obtained at both sites in order to assess the contribution of local noise factors to the climatic signal preserved in the cores. Climatic trends during the period 1938–86 have been assessed on the basis of stable-isotope analysis of the top 47 m of the Palmer Land core and of the top 32 m of the Dolleman Island core.A statistical analysis of derived profiles of mean annual δ18O and accumulation rate indicates that the local noise factors at these sites are sufficiently small that data averaged over periods as short as 5 years should reveal climatic shifts at the level of 0.2% and 5% respectively. These changes are much smaller than trends that have actually occurred during the past 50 years.The most notable trend over the past 30 years is an increase of more than 30% in the snow-accumulation rate that has occurred in parallel with an overall temperature increase of 0.06°C/a during the same period. Increases of similar magnitude can be inferred from studies in East Antarctica, and may be related to a significant increase in precipitation rate that has been documented recently at mid-to high-latitude stations in the Northern Hemisphere. The finding may have relevance to studies of the possible consequences of a CO2-induced climate change. More extensive accumulation time series are now required from Antarctica, if satisfactory models of the long-term balance of the ice sheet are to be derived.

scholarly journals Antarctic Winds: Pacemaker of Global Warming, Global Cooling, and the Collapse of Civilizations

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
W. Davis ◽  
W. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Wind Pattern ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Cooling ◽  
Wind Cycle ◽  
The Antarctic

We report a natural wind cycle, the Antarctic Centennial Wind Oscillation (ACWO), whose properties explain milestones of climate and human civilization, including contemporary global warming. We explored the wind/temperature relationship in Antarctica over the past 226 millennia using dust flux in ice cores from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C (EDC) drill site as a wind proxy and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in ice cores from EDC and ten additional Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. The ACWO wind cycle is coupled 1:1 with the temperature cycle of the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO), the paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), at all eleven drill sites over all time periods evaluated. Such tight coupling suggests that ACWO wind cycles force ACO/AAO temperature cycles. The ACWO is modulated in phase with the millennial-scale Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM) temperature cycle. Each AIM cycle encompasses several ACWOs that increase in frequency and amplitude to a Wind Terminus, the last and largest ACWO of every AIM cycle. This historic wind pattern, and the heat and gas exchange it forces with the Southern Ocean (SO), explains climate milestones including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Contemporary global warming is explained by venting of heat and carbon dioxide from the SO forced by the maximal winds of the current positive phase of the ACO/AAO cycle. The largest 20 human civilizations of the past four millennia collapsed during or near the Little Ice Age or its earlier recurrent homologs. The Eddy Cycle of sunspot activity oscillates in phase with the AIM temperature cycle and therefore may force the internal climate cycles documented here. Climate forecasts based on the historic ACWO wind pattern project imminent global cooling and in ~4 centuries a recurrent homolog of the Little Ice Age. Our study provides a theoretically-unified explanation of contemporary global warming and other climate milestones based on natural climate cycles driven by the Sun, confirms a dominant role for climate in shaping human history, invites reconsideration of climate policy, and offers a method to project future climate.

scholarly journals Air Temperature and Snow Accumulation in the Antarctic Peninsula During the Past 50 Years (Abstract)

1988 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 207 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Peel ◽  
Robert Mulvaney
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Noise Factors

Trends in climate affecting the West Antarctic ice sheet may be detected first in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Although the area contains the most comprehensive weather records for any part of Antarctica, reliable snow-accumulation data are lacking. Mainly as a result of the large snow-accumulation rate in the region (typically in the range 4.0–10.0 kg m−2 a−1), stratigraphie evidence of climate derived from ice cores can be resolved in much greater detail than is possible over most of the continent. Ice cores have been drilled at two sites, representing the extremes of climate type encountered in the region. A 133 m core has been obtained from Dolleman Island (70°35.2′S, 60°55.5′W) to represent the continental-type climate of the Weddell coast region, and an 87 m core has been obtained from the Palmer Land plateau (74°01′S, 70°38′W) to represent the more maritime regime of the west coast and central areas. Replicated cores were obtained at both sites in order to assess the contribution of local noise factors to the climatic signal preserved in the cores. Climatic trends during the period 1938–86 have been assessed on the basis of stable-isotope analysis of the top 47 m of the Palmer Land core and of the top 32 m of the Dolleman Island core. A statistical analysis of derived profiles of mean annual δ18O and accumulation rate indicates that the local noise factors at these sites are sufficiently small that data averaged over periods as short as 5 years should reveal climatic shifts at the level of 0.2% and 5% respectively. These changes are much smaller than trends that have actually occurred during the past 50 years. The most notable trend over the past 30 years is an increase of more than 30% in the snow-accumulation rate that has occurred in parallel with an overall temperature increase of 0.06°C/a during the same period. Increases of similar magnitude can be inferred from studies in East Antarctica, and may be related to a significant increase in precipitation rate that has been documented recently at mid-to high-latitude stations in the Northern Hemisphere. The finding may have relevance to studies of the possible consequences of a CO2-induced climate change. More extensive accumulation time series are now required from Antarctica, if satisfactory models of the long-term balance of the ice sheet are to be derived.

scholarly journals Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (15) ◽  
pp. 5365-5392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joëlle Gergis ◽  
Raphael Neukom ◽  
Ailie J. E. Gallant ◽  
David J. Karoly
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Paleoclimate Records

Abstract Multiproxy warm season (September–February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land–ocean region of Australasia (0°–50°S, 110°E–180°) covering 1000–2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the amplitude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985–2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks—R28, R3, and R2). The reconstructed twentieth-century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone using GISS-E2-R. In this climate model, anthropogenic forcing is required to produce the rate and magnitude of post-1950 warming observed in the Australasian region. These paleoclimate results are consistent with other studies that attribute the post-1950 warming in Australian temperature records to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

scholarly journals Novel automated inversion algorithm for temperature reconstruction using gas isotopes from ice cores

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 763-788
Author(s):  
Michael Döring ◽  
Markus C. Leuenberger
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Problem ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Heat Diffusion ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Temperature History ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Target Data

Abstract. Greenland past temperature history can be reconstructed by forcing the output of a firn-densification and heat-diffusion model to fit multiple gas-isotope data (δ15N or δ40Ar or δ15Nexcess) extracted from ancient air in Greenland ice cores using published accumulation-rate (Acc) datasets. We present here a novel methodology to solve this inverse problem, by designing a fully automated algorithm. To demonstrate the performance of this novel approach, we begin by intentionally constructing synthetic temperature histories and associated δ15N datasets, mimicking real Holocene data that we use as “true values” (targets) to be compared to the output of the algorithm. This allows us to quantify uncertainties originating from the algorithm itself. The presented approach is completely automated and therefore minimizes the “subjective” impact of manual parameter tuning, leading to reproducible temperature estimates. In contrast to many other ice-core-based temperature reconstruction methods, the presented approach is completely independent from ice-core stable-water isotopes, providing the opportunity to validate water-isotope-based reconstructions or reconstructions where water isotopes are used together with δ15N or δ40Ar. We solve the inverse problem T(δ15N, Acc) by using a combination of a Monte Carlo based iterative approach and the analysis of remaining mismatches between modelled and target data, based on cubic-spline filtering of random numbers and the laboratory-determined temperature sensitivity for nitrogen isotopes. Additionally, the presented reconstruction approach was tested by fitting measured δ40Ar and δ15Nexcess data, which led as well to a robust agreement between modelled and measured data. The obtained final mismatches follow a symmetric standard-distribution function. For the study on synthetic data, 95 % of the mismatches compared to the synthetic target data are in an envelope between 3.0 to 6.3 permeg for δ15N and 0.23 to 0.51 K for temperature (2σ, respectively). In addition to Holocene temperature reconstructions, the fitting approach can also be used for glacial temperature reconstructions. This is shown by fitting of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ15N data for two Dansgaard–Oeschger events using the presented approach, leading to results comparable to other studies.

Testing the ideal ice-core record for past temperature reconstructions using combined isotope and impurity analyses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Münch ◽  
Maria Hörhold ◽  
Johannes Freitag ◽  
Melanie Behrens ◽  
Thomas Laepple
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
True Temperature ◽  
Impurity Species ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Isotope Record ◽  
Ice Core Record

<p>Ice cores represent one of the most important palaeoclimate archives, which record, among many other parameters, changes in stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition and soluble ionic impurities. While impurities serve, for example, as proxies for sea ice, marine biological activity and volcanism, records of isotopic composition are the major proxy for the reconstruction of natural polar temperature variability. The latter is based on the temperature-dependent distillation and fractionation of the isotopic composition of water vapour along its atmospheric pathway and empirically determined relationships thereof.</p><p>However, temperature is by far not the only driver of isotopic composition changes. A single isotopic ice-core record will comprise variations caused by a multitude of processes, from variable atmospheric circulation and moisture pathways to the intermittency of precipitation and finally to the mixing and re-location of surface snow by wind drift (stratigraphic noise). Taken together, these additional processes constitute a large amount of noise in the single isotope record, which masks the true temperature-related variability. Averaging a sufficient number of records to reduce overall noise is one means to allow for quantitative reconstructions, but its effectiveness depends on the spatial scales of the involved processes. Here, we discuss an alternative approach. Assuming that major impurity species exhibit a seasonal cycle and are mainly also, along with the isotopic composition, deposited by precipitation and redistributed by wind, a large portion of their interannual variability should be linked, which would offer the possibility of using the impurities to correct the variability of the isotopic records.</p><p>In this contribution, we present the "ideal" dataset for testing this idea. We sampled and analysed isotopic composition and major impurity species on a four metre deep and 50 metre long trench at Kohnen Station, East Antarctica. This enables us to study the two-dimensional structure and relationship of both proxies to learn about their deposition mechanisms, their seasonality, and to test the ability of a combined isotope–impurity approach to reconstruct local temperatures by comparing so obtained temperature reconstructions with the local weather station data.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (22) ◽  
pp. eabc1379
Author(s):  
Pengfei Liu ◽  
Jed O. Kaplan ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley ◽  
Yang Li ◽  
Nathan J. Chellman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Fire Activity

Fire plays a pivotal role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems and the chemical composition of the atmosphere and thus influences Earth’s climate. The trend and magnitude of fire activity over the past few centuries are controversial, which hinders understanding of preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative forcing. Here, we present evidence from records of 14 Antarctic ice cores and 1 central Andean ice core, suggesting that historical fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) exceeded present-day levels. To understand this observation, we use a global fire model to show that overall SH fire emissions could have declined by 30% over the 20th century, possibly because of the rapid expansion of land use for agriculture and animal production in middle to high latitudes. Radiative forcing calculations suggest that the decreasing trend in SH fire emissions over the past century largely compensates for the cooling effect of increasing aerosols from fossil fuel and biofuel sources.

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