scholarly journals Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the <i>lig127k</i> simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Esther C. Brady ◽  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris M. Brierley ◽  
Yarrow Axford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Paleoclimate Modeling ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Esther C. Brady ◽  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris Brierley ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Last Interglacial

&lt;p&gt;The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.3&amp;#176;C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June-July-August and a much-reduced minimum (August-September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the <i>lig127k</i> simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Esther C. Brady ◽  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris Brierley ◽  
Yarrow Axford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Last Interglacial

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.6 °C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June–July–August and a much-reduced minimum (August–September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka. New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.

scholarly journals Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 3155-3174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor J. Burke ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Gerhard Krinner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Soil Profile ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Northern High Latitude ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10 %–40 %∘C-1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.

scholarly journals The sea ice model component of HadGEM3-GC3.1

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 713-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff K. Ridley ◽  
Edward W. Blockley ◽  
Ann B. Keen ◽  
Jamie G. L. Rae ◽  
Alex E. West ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Coupling Scheme ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Component ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Ice Model

Abstract. A new sea ice configuration, GSI8.1, is implemented in the Met Office global coupled configuration HadGEM3-GC3.1 which will be used for all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations. The inclusion of multi-layer thermodynamics has required a semi-implicit coupling scheme between atmosphere and sea ice to ensure the stability of the solver. Here we describe the sea ice model component and show that the Arctic thickness and extent compare well with observationally based data.

scholarly journals Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
Paul J. Durack ◽  
Alistair J. Adcroft ◽  
V. Balaji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Experimental Protocol ◽  
Diagnostic Protocol ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses these aims in two complementary manners: (A) by providing an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing, (B) by providing a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) offering details for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows that of the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II have become the standard method to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP (Scenario MIP), as well as the ocean-sea ice OMIP simulations. The bulk of this paper offers scientific rationale for saving these diagnostics.

Greenhouse-gas contribution to Arctic sea-ice loss

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeon-Hee Kim ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Detection Analysis ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

&lt;p&gt;Arctic sea-ice area (ASIA) has been declining rapidly throughout the year during recent decades, but a formal quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) contribution remains limited. This study conducts an attribution analysis of the observed ASIA changes from 1979 to 2017 by comparing three satellite observations with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations using an optimal fingerprint method. The observed ASIA exhibits overall decreasing trends across all months with stronger trends in warm seasons. CMIP6 anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL) simulations and GHG-only forcing simulations successfully capture the observed temporal trend patterns. Results from detection analysis show that ALL signals are detected robustly for all calendar months for three observations. It is found that GHG signals are detectable in the observed ASIA decrease throughout the year, explaining most of the ASIA reduction, with a much weaker contribution by other external forcings. We additionally find that the Arctic Ocean will occur ice-free in September around the 2040s regardless of the emission scenario.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1705-1714 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Xu ◽  
L. Zhao ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5), although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR) exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the uncertainty in the Antarctic is the largest. In addition, note that the reanalyses show the largest uncertainty in the lower tropical stratosphere, and the CMIP3 simulations show the largest uncertainty in both the south and north polar regions.

scholarly journals Ice Algae Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (IAMIP2)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hakase Hayashida ◽  
Meibing Jin ◽  
Nadja S. Steiner ◽  
Neil C. Swart ◽  
Eiji Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Ice Algae ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Ice algae play a fundamental role in shaping polar marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. This role can be investigated by field observations, however the influence of ice algae at the regional and global scales remains unclear due to limited spatial and temporal coverage of observations, and because ice algae are typically not included in current Earth System Models. To address this knowledge gap, we introduce a new model intercomparison project (MIP), referred to here as the Ice Algae Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (IAMIP2). IAMIP2 is built upon the experience from its previous phase, and expands its scope to global coverage (both Arctic and Antarctic) and centennial timescales (spanning the mid-twentieth century to the end of the twenty-first century). Participating models are three-dimensional regional and global coupled sea ice–ocean models that incorporate sea-ice ecosystem components. These models are driven by the same initial conditions and atmospheric forcing datasets by incorporating and expanding the protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, an endorsed MIP of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Doing so provides more robust estimates of model bias and uncertainty, and consequently advances the science of polar marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. A diagnostic protocol is designed to enhance the reusability of the model data products of IAMIP2. Lastly, the limitations and strengths of IAMIP2 are discussed in the context of prospective research outcomes.

scholarly journals Recurrence Spectra of European Temperature in Historical Climate Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 166 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Alvarez-Castro ◽  
Davide Faranda ◽  
Thomas Noël ◽  
Pascal Yiou
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
European Temperature Extremes ◽  
Cold Extremes

We analyse and quantify the recurrences of European temperature extremes using 32 historical simulations (1900–1999) of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 8 historical simulations (1971–2005) from the EUROCORDEX experiment. We compare the former simulations to the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv2c) dataset to compute recurrence spectra of temperature in Europe. We find that, (1) the spectra obtained by the model ensemble mean are generally consistent with those of 20CR; (2) spectra biases have a strong regional dependence; (3) the resolution does not change the order of magnitude of spectral biases between models and reanalysis, (4) the spread in recurrence biases is larger for cold extremes. Our analysis of biases provides a new way of selecting a subset of the CMIP5 ensemble to obtain an optimal estimate of temperature recurrences for a range of time-scales.

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