scholarly journals The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1653-1673 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Davies ◽  
H. Renssen ◽  
M. Blaschek ◽  
F. Muschitiello

Abstract. Since the start of the Holocene, temperatures in the Arctic have steadily declined. This has been accredited to the orbitally forced decrease in summer insolation reconstructed over the same period. However, we present climate modelling results here that indicate that up to 42% of the cooling in the Arctic, over the period 9–0 ka was a direct result of the desertification that occurred in the Sahara. Through a land–atmosphere teleconnection, increasing surface albedo in the Sahara leads to a regional increase in surface pressure, a weakening of the trade winds, the westerlies and the polar easterlies, which in turn reduces the meridional heat transported by the atmosphere to the Arctic. Additionally, through a series of targeted sensitivity experiments we explored the affects that using a modern cloud data set has upon mid and early Holocene climate simulations, and show that despite an apparent weakness in our model our original conclusions are robust. We conclude that interglacial climate is sensitive to changes in Sahara vegetation type, which has significance in the future debate of the response of the Sahara to climate change, considering the uncertainty surrounding future precipitation projections for this region.

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 571-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Davies ◽  
H. Renssen ◽  
M. Blaschek ◽  
F. Muschitiello

Abstract. Since the start of the Holocene, temperatures in the Arctic have steadily declined. This has been accredited to the orbitally forced decrease in summer insolation reconstructed over the same period. However, here we present climate modelling results from an Earth model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) that indicate that 17–40% of the cooling in the Arctic, over the period 9–0 ka, was a direct result of the desertification that occurred in the Sahara after the termination of the African Humid Period. We have performed a suite of sensitivity experiments to analyse the impact of different combinations of forcings, including various vegetation covers in the Sahara. Our simulations suggest that over the course of the Holocene, a strong increase in surface albedo in the Sahara as a result of desertification led to a regional increase in surface pressure, a weakening of the trade winds, the westerlies and the polar easterlies, which in turn reduced the meridional heat transported by the atmosphere to the Arctic. We conclude that during interglacials, the climate of the Northern Hemisphere is sensitive to changes in Sahara vegetation type.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2745-2761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Xie ◽  
François Counillon ◽  
Laurent Bertino ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Kaleschke

Abstract. An observation product for thin sea ice thickness (SMOS-Ice) is derived from the brightness temperature data of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. This product is available in near-real time, at daily frequency, during the cold season. In this study, we investigate the benefit of assimilating SMOS-Ice into the TOPAZ coupled ocean and sea ice forecasting system, which is the Arctic component of the Copernicus marine environment monitoring services. The TOPAZ system assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), altimetry data, temperature and salinity profiles, ice concentration, and ice drift with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The conditions for assimilation of sea ice thickness thinner than 0.4 m are favorable, as observations are reliable below this threshold and their probability distribution is comparable to that of the model. Two parallel Observing System Experiments (OSE) have been performed in March and November 2014, in which the thicknesses from SMOS-Ice (thinner than 0.4 m) are assimilated in addition to the standard observational data sets. It is found that the root mean square difference (RMSD) of thin sea ice thickness is reduced by 11 % in March and 22 % in November compared to the daily thin ice thicknesses of SMOS-Ice, which suggests that SMOS-Ice has a larger impact during the beginning of the cold season. Validation against independent observations of ice thickness from buoys and ice draft from moorings indicates that there are no degradations in the pack ice but there are some improvements near the ice edge close to where the SMOS-Ice has been assimilated. Assimilation of SMOS-Ice yields a slight improvement for ice concentration and degrades neither SST nor sea level anomaly. Analysis of the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) indicates that the SMOS-Ice has a comparatively small impact but it has a significant contribution in constraining the system (> 20 % of the impact of all ice and ocean observations) near the ice edge. The areas of largest impact are the Kara Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Baffin Bay, Beaufort Sea and Greenland Sea. This study suggests that the SMOS-Ice is a good complementary data set that can be safely included in the TOPAZ system.


The Holocene ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 458-473
Author(s):  
Krystyna Milecka ◽  
Joanna Mirosław-Grabowska ◽  
Edyta Zawisza ◽  
Grzegorz Kowalewski

During the Holocene, multiple thermal changes commonly occurred in the northern hemisphere. They are well-recorded in lakes with minimum human impact from the Arctic Circle area. The development of these lakes reflects ecological and climatic changes occurring from the formation of the lakes until present-day times. All environmental fluctuations affect biodiversity and are reflected in the number and composition of species. The goals of this study were to detect the ecological changes in a small Finnish lake using pollen, Cladocera and geochemical analyses. The research area is located within the northern zone of boreal coniferous forest and is the most sparsely populated region of Finland. The lake is located in Kuusamo uplands, E Finland, near the polar circle and over 20 km from the Russian border. Indicators of cold water were found only during the initial stage, after the 8.2 ka event and then the temperature was higher. Trophy was high at the beginning of the lake development and then a significant increase in trophy was found after 2600 BP. The impact of human activity is hardly traceable in Arctic Circle Finland throughout the Holocene Thermal Maximum. During the late-Holocene (after 4200 yr cal. BP), this impact is still weak and, even as late as the 20th century, only a few traces of human activity are recorded. General conclusion is that long-term climatic shift has been the most important factor driving changes in the limnology of Lake Talvilampi.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Xie ◽  
Francois Counillon ◽  
Laurent Bertino ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Kaleschke

Abstract. An observation product for thin sea ice thickness (SMOS-Ice) is derived from the brightness temperature data of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Mission, and available in real-time at daily frequency during the winter season. In this study, we investigate the benefit of assimilating SMOS-Ice into the TOPAZ system. TOPAZ is a coupled ocean-sea ice forecast system that assimilates SST, altimetry data, temperature and salinity profiles, ice concentration, and ice drift with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The conditions for assimilation of sea ice thickness thinner than 0.4 m are favorable, as observations are reliable below this threshold and their probability distribution is comparable to that of the model. Two paralleled runs of TOPAZ have been performed respectively in March and November 2014, with assimilation of thin sea ice thickness (thinner than 0.4 m) in addition to the standard ice and ocean observational data sets. It is found that the RMSD of thin sea-ice thickness is reduced by 11 % in March and 22 % in November suggesting that SMOS-Ice has a larger impact during the beginning of freezing season. There is a slight improvement of the ice concentration and no degradation of the ocean variables. The Degrees of Freedom for Signal (DFS) indicate that the SMOS-Ice contents important information (> 20 % of the impact of all observations) for some areas in the Arctic. The areas of largest impact are the Kara Sea, the Canadian archipelago, the Baffin Bay, the Beaufort Sea and the Greenland Sea. This study suggests that SMOS-Ice is a good complementary data set that can be safely included in the TOPAZ system as it improves the ice thickness and the ice concentration but does not degrade other quantities. Keywords: SMOS-Ice; EnKF; OSE; thin sea-ice thickness; DFS;


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1629-1640 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Mizielinski ◽  
M. J. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
R. Schiemann ◽  
M.-E. Demory ◽  
...  

Abstract. The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3) atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km), N216 (60 km) and N96 (130 km) as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS), and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA) for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE data set. This data set is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Hetzinger ◽  
Jochen Halfar ◽  
Zoltan Zajacz ◽  
Marco Möller ◽  
Max Wisshak

AbstractThe Arctic cryosphere is changing rapidly due to global warming. Northern Svalbard is a warming hotspot with a temperature rise of ~ 6 °C over the last three decades. Concurrently, modelled data suggest a marked increase in glacier runoff during recent decades in northern Svalbard, and runoff is projected to increase. However, observational data from before anthropogenic influence are sparse and the potential effects on the surface ocean are unclear. Here, we present a 200-year record of Ba/Ca ratios measured in annual increment-forming coralline algae from northern Spitsbergen as a proxy for past glacier-derived meltwater input. Our record shows a significant increasing trend in algal Ba/Ca ratios from the late-1980s onwards matching modelled regional runoff data, suggesting a drastic increase in land-based runoff. The rate of increase is unprecedented during the last two centuries and captures the impact of amplified warming on the coastal surface ocean in the high Arctic. The algal Ba/Ca runoff proxy offers an opportunity to reconstruct past land-based runoff variability in Arctic settings in high resolution, providing important data for validating and improving climate modelling studies.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Beena Balan Sarojini ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Hao Zuo ◽  
Frederic Vitart ◽  
...  

<p>A substantial amount of subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice variability is potentially predictable, but improved model biases and initialization techniques are needed to realize this potential. Forecasts for other Earth System components can be expected to benefit from improved sea-ice forecasts as well, because the presence of sea ice drastically alters exchanges of heat and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. Here, we present the impact of initializing subseasonal forecasts with observed sea-ice thickness. The newly developed sea-ice thickness data set CS2SMOS that we use is derived from radar altimetry and L-band radiance satellite observations. It allows for the first time a spatially complete view of pan-Arctic ice thickness on a near-daily basis during the freezing season. The ingestion of this data into the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system improves subseasonal forecasts of the Arctic ice edge during the melting season by up to 10%. Sea-surface temperature forecasts at high latitudes are also significantly improved during the melting season, because an improved prediction of ice-free date allows an improved forecast of the amount of seasonal warming. These results illustrate the potential for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions by initializing the sea-ice thickness.</p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 13817-13867 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. Kramer ◽  
D. Helmig ◽  
J. F. Burkhart ◽  
A. Stohl ◽  
S. Oltmans ◽  
...  

Abstract. Measurements of atmospheric NOx (NOx = NO + NO2), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), NOy and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) were taken at the GEOSummit Station, Greenland (72.34° N, 38.29° W, 3212 m.a.s.l) from July 2008 to July 2010. The data set represents the first year-round concurrent record of these compounds sampled at a high latitude Arctic site in the free troposphere. Here, the study focused on the seasonal variability of these important ozone (O3) precursors in the Arctic free troposphere and the impact from transported anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions. Our analysis shows that PAN is the dominant NOy species in all seasons at Summit, varying from 49% to 78%, however, we find that odd NOy species (odd NOy = NOy − PAN-NOx) contribute a large amount to the total NOy speciation with monthly means of up to 95 pmol mol−1 in the winter and ∼40 pmol mol−1 in the summer, and that the level of odd NOy species at Summit during summer is greater than that of NOx. We hypothesize that the source of this odd NOy is most likely alkyl nitrates from transported pollution, and photochemically produced species such as HNO3 and HONO. FLEXPART retroplume analysis and tracers for anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, were used to identify periods when the site was impacted by polluted air masses. Europe contributed the largest source of anthropogenic emissions during the winter and spring months, with up to 82% of the simulated anthropogenic black carbon originating from this region between December 2009 and March 2010, whereas, North America was the primary source of biomass burning emissions. Polluted air masses were typically aged, with median transport times to the site from the source region of 11 days for anthropogenic events in winter, and 14 days for BB plumes. Overall we find that the transport of polluted air masses to the high altitude Arctic typically resulted in high variability in levels of O3 and O3 precursors. During winter, plumes originating from mid-latitude regions and transported in the lower troposphere to Summit often result in lower O3 mole fractions than background levels. However, plumes transported at higher altitudes can result in positive enhancements in O3 levels. It is therefore likely that the air masses transported in the mid-troposphere were mixed with air from stratospheric origin. Similar enhancements in O3 and its precursors were also observed during periods when FLEXPART indicated that biomass burning emissions impacted Summit. The analysis of anthropogenic events over summer show that emissions of anthropogenic origin have a greater impact on O3 and precursor levels at Summit than biomass burning sources during the measurement period, with enhancements above background levels of up to 16 nmol mol−1 for O3 and 237 pmol mol−1 and 205 pmol mol−1, 28 pmol mol−1 and 1.0 nmol mol−1 for NOy, PAN, NOx and ethane, respectively.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 6827-6849 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. Kramer ◽  
D. Helmig ◽  
J. F. Burkhart ◽  
A. Stohl ◽  
S. Oltmans ◽  
...  

Abstract. Measurements of atmospheric nitrogen oxides NOx (NOx = NO + NO2), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), NOy, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) were taken at the Greenland Environmental Observatory at Summit (GEOSummit) station, Greenland (72.34° N, 38.29° W; 3212 m a.s.l.), from July 2008 to July 2010. The data set represents the first year-round concurrent record of these compounds sampled at a high latitude Arctic site. Here, the study focused on the seasonal variability of these important ozone (O3) precursors in the Arctic troposphere and the impact from transported anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions. Our analysis shows that PAN is the dominant NOy species in all seasons at Summit, varying from 42 to 76 %; however, we find that odd NOy species (odd NOy = NOy − PAN − NOx) contribute a large amount to the total NOy speciation. We hypothesize that the source of this odd NOy is most likely alkyl nitrates and nitric acid (HNO3) from transported pollution, and photochemically produced species such as nitrous acid (HONO). FLEXPART retroplume analyses and black carbon (BC) tracers for anthropogenic and biomass burning (BB) emissions were used to identify periods when the site was impacted by polluted air masses. Europe contributed the largest source of anthropogenic emissions during the winter months (November–March) with 56 % of the total anthropogenic BC tracer originating from Europe in 2008–2009 and 69 % in 2009–2010. The polluted plumes resulted in mean enhancements above background levels up to 334, 295, 88, and 1119 pmol mol−1 for NOy, PAN, NOx, and ethane, respectively, over the two winters. Enhancements in O3 precursors during the second winter were typically higher, which may be attributed to the increase in European polluted air masses transported to Summit in 2009–2010 compared to 2008–2009. O3 levels were highly variable within the sampled anthropogenic plumes with mean ΔO3 levels ranging from −6.7 to 7.6 nmol mol−1 during the winter periods. North America was the primary source of biomass burning emissions during the summer; however, only 13 BB events were observed as the number of air masses transported to Summit, with significant BB emissions, was low in general during the measurement period. The BB plumes were typically very aged, with median transport times to the site from the source region of 14 days. The analyses of O3 and precursor levels during the BB events indicate that some of the plumes sampled impacted the atmospheric chemistry at Summit, with enhancements observed in all measured species.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inger Bij de Vaate ◽  
Amey Vasulkar ◽  
Cornelis Slobbe ◽  
Martin Verlaan

<p>The impact of Arctic sea ice decline on future global tidal and storm surge extreme water levels is unknown. Regional studies show that the impact can be substantial; causing increased erosion and posing higher risks to fragile Arctic ecosystems in low-lying areas. Since Arctic tides and surges influence global water levels, consequences of Arctic sea ice decline will be noticed across the globe. In the ongoing FAST4Nl project, an Arctic Total Water Level model will be used to quantify this impact. The model will be developed as an extension of the operational Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) and includes the effect of sea ice on tides.</p><p>Here we present the results of a study on the seasonal variability of the M<sub>2</sub> tide with respect to differences in sea ice cover. The effect of sea ice on the M<sub>2</sub> amplitude was modelled for minimal and maximal sea ice configurations. In addition, tidal harmonic analysis was performed on a global tide gauge data set, supplemented by SAR altimeter derived water levels from the Arctic region. The high along-track resolution of SAR altimeters (300 m) enables to derive water levels from leads in the sea ice. Here, the retrieved sea surface heights within a given region were stacked, in order to obtain a sufficiently large data set for analysis of the predominantly ice-covered areas. This allowed to gain insight in the seasonal modulation of both local and global tides and directly relate these processes to variations in sea ice.</p>


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