Assessment of droughts and their linkage to environmental flow conditions over a large Indian river basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabyasachi Swain ◽  
Surendra Kumar Mishra ◽  
Ashish Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Entire Duration ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Indian River ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

<p>A robust characterization and risk assessment of meteorological droughts is the need of the hour considering its pervasiveness and consequences; however, their precise physical quantification is a difficult geophysical endeavor. This becomes a serious issue for India, having 18% of the world’s population and 4% of global freshwater, out of which 83% is used in agriculture. In this study, a detailed spatiotemporal assessment of the meteorological droughts characterized by standardized precipitation index (SPI) at annual scale is carried out over the Narmada Basin, India using the monthly rainfall data from 24 stations for 63 years (1951- 2013). The entire duration was divided into two epochs of 31 years (i.e. 1951-1981 and 1982-2012) for a comparative assessment of drought characteristics. The non- parametric Mann- Kendall (MK) test is applied to investigate the trend of droughts. Further, to predict the environmental Flow (EF) conditions from rainfall data only, the linkage of SPI with the average annual flow (%AAF) is examined over four sub-catchments (Mohegaon, Hridaynagar, Manot, and Sher) of the basin. The results reveal that the Narmada basin is prone to droughts with a frequency of once in 3 to 5 years. The frequency and severity of droughts have significantly increased in 1982-2012 as compared to 1951-1981. The severity of recent droughts shows a more widespread aerial extent in the region. The MK test results indicate an increasing trend in the droughts over most of the stations. An exquisite agreement between SPI and %AAF (used to describe the EF condition) is observed with R<sup>2</sup> ranging from 0.757 to 0.988, which shows that coupling SPI with %AAF can be effective for ungauged catchments. This study suggests that appropriate measures must be taken for better management of the water resources in the basin, and also for mitigation droughts, considering the increased risk of the severe drought events in recent decades.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Drought in the Northern Region of Bangladesh Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 199-216
Author(s):  
R Afrin ◽  
F Hossain ◽  
SA Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is an extended period when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used in this study to analyze drought. Northern region of Bangladesh was the area of study. Monthly rainfall data of northern region of Bangladesh was obtained from the Meteorological Department of Bangladesh. Obtained rainfall data was from 1991 to 2011 and values from 2012 to 2026 were generated using Markov model. Then SPI values from 1991 to 2026 were calculated by using SPI formula for analyzing drought. Analysis with SPI method showed that droughts in northern region of Bangladesh varied from moderately dry to severely dry conditions and it may vary from moderately dry to severely dry conditions normally in future but in some cases extreme drought may also take place. From the study, it is observed that the northern region of Bangladesh has already experienced severe drought in 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. The region may experience severe drought in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 and extreme drought in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2023 and 2024. J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 11(1-2): 199-216 2018

scholarly journals Drought and Grain Crop Yields over the East European Plain under Influence of Quasibiennial Oscillation of Global Atmospheric Processes

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Elena Cherenkova ◽  
Inna Semenova ◽  
Mikhail Bardin ◽  
Alexander N. Zolotokrylin
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
East European ◽  
Increased Risk

Monthly precipitation and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to reveal the patterns of rainfall and severe drought frequency over the East European Plain in the period 1953–2011 in the opposite phases of the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). Differences of precipitation and severe drought frequency in May and in June in the westward and eastward phases of the QBO phases are explained by circulation variations. The analysis indicates less frequent severe drought events over Ukraine and at the center of the European part of Russia in May in the westward QBO phase due to the intensification of the storm track over the East European Plain. The weather conditions in May and in June in the years of the westward QBO phase were more favorable for the yield. The difference of spring wheat yield in the westward and eastward QBO phase exceeds the same difference of winter wheat yield in the Central Black Earth region and in the south regions. Ukraine and the region to the east of the Sea of Azov are the most vulnerable areas of increased risk of severe drought during the active growing season at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1042 ◽  
Author(s):  
Varsha Pandey ◽  
Prashant K Srivastava ◽  
Sudhir K Singh ◽  
George P. Petropoulos ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Mall
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Drought hazard mapping and its trend analysis has become indispensable due to the aggravated impact of drought in the era of climate change. Sparse observational networks with minimal maintenance limit the spatio-temporal coverage of precipitation data, which has been a major constraint in the effective drought monitoring. In this study, high-resolution satellite-derived Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data has been used for computation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study was carried out in Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh, India, known for its substantial drought occurrences with poor drought management plans and lack of effective preparedness. Very limited studies have been carried out in assessing the spatio-temporal drought in this region. This study aims to identify district-wide drought and its trend characterization from 1981 to 2018. The run theory was applied for quantitative drought assessment; whereas, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was performed for trend analysis at seasonal and annual time steps. Results indicated an average of nine severe drought events in all the districts in the last 38 years, and the most intense drought was recorded for the Jalaun district (1983–1985). A significant decreasing trend is observed for the SPI1 (at 95% confidence level) during the post-monsoon season, with the magnitude varying from −0.16 to −0.33 mm/month. This indicates the increasing severity of meteorological drought in the area. Moreover, a non-significant falling trend for short-term drought (SPI1 and SPI3) annually and short- and medium-term drought (SPI1, SPI3, and SPI6) in winter months have been also observed for all the districts. The output of the current study would be utilized in better understanding of the drought condition through elaborate trend analysis of the SPI pattern and thus helps the policy makers to devise a drought management plan to handle the water crisis, food security, and in turn the betterment of the inhabitants.

scholarly journals Caracterização e análise das secas na sub-bacia hidrográfica do Rio Taperoá

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1483
Author(s):  
André Aires De Farias ◽  
Francisco de Assis Salviano De Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Social Programs ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Objetivou-se identificar e analisar os períodos de secas na sub-bacia hidrográfica do Rio Taperoá (SBHRT). Dados pluviométricos, série 1963-2014, foram utilizados para analisar a severidade dos anos secos, por meio do índice padronizado de precipitação. Verificou-se que a maioria das secas que ocorreram na SBHRT se enquadram na categoria moderada, seguido por severa e extrema. A SBHRT foi atingida por secas severas e extremas durante todas as décadas analisadas, no entanto, o maior número delas ocorreu nas décadas de 1980, 1990, 2000 e 2010. A seca mais grave foi a de 1998-2000, seguido pela de 1979-1985. A seca de 2012-2014 não foi a mais grave porque a precipitação foi acima da ocorrida no período de 1998-2000 e 1979-1985, houve também maior investimento em ações de convivência com as secas e programas sociais implantados pelos governos.  Characterization and analysis of droughts in sub-basin hydrographic of the Taperoá River  A B S T R A C TThis study aimed to identify and analyze the periods of droughts in sub-basin hydrographic of the Taperoá River (SBHTR). Rainfall data, serie 1963-2014, were used to analyze the severity of the dry years, through the standardized precipitation index (SPI). It was found that most of droughts in SBHTR occurred into the category moderate, following by severe and extreme. The SBHTR was hit by severe and extreme dried for all analyzed decades, however, as many of them occurred in the decades of 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. The most severe drought was the from 1998-2000, followed by 1979-1985. The drought of 2012-2014 was not the more serious because the precipitation was above occurred in 1998-2000 and 1979-1985 period, there was also greater investment in coexistence actions with droughts and social programs implemented by governments.Keywords: category of drought, precipitation regime, severity of drought.

Return Periods of Extreme Meteorological Droughts during Monsoon in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 735 ◽  
pp. 186-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahiuddin Alamgir ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Morteza Mohsenipour ◽  
Kamal Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

The Objective of the Present Study is to Characterize Extreme Droughts during Monsoon (June to September) when Rain-Fed Crops are Grown in Bangladesh. Fifty Years (1963-2012) Rainfall Data Recorded at Twenty-Nine Stations in Bangladesh is Analysed Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to Reconstruct the Historical Droughts during Monsoon with Various Severities. the Extreme Droughts Events are Identified from the Reconstructed SPI Time Series and their Distribution in Time is Recognized by Fitting Various Frequency Distribution Curves. Finally, the Best Fitted Distribution is Used to Calculate the Return Periods of Extreme Droughts. the Results Show that Extreme Droughts during Monsoon Occur once in Every 18 Years in Northwest Bangladesh. it is Expected that the Study will Help in Planning Adaptation Strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of the Droughts.

scholarly journals Water-Sediment Physicochemical Dynamics in a Large Reservoir in the Mediterranean Region under Multiple Stressors

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 707
Author(s):  
Patrícia Palma ◽  
Alexandra Marchã Penha ◽  
Maria Helena Novais ◽  
Sofia Fialho ◽  
Ana Lima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Potentially Toxic Metals ◽  
Large Reservoir ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Mediterranean

Nowadays, the Mediterranean freshwater systems face the threat of water scarcity, along with multiple other stressors (e.g., organic and inorganic contamination, geomorphological alterations, invasive species), leading to the impairment of their ecosystem services. All these stressors have been speeding up, due to climate variability and land cover/ land use changes, turning them into a big challenge for the water management plans. The present study analyses the physicochemical and phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a) dynamics of a large reservoir, in the Mediterranean region (Alqueva reservoir, Southern Portugal), under diverse meteorological conditions and land cover/land use real scenarios (2017 and 2018). The most important stressors were identified and the necessary tools and information for a more effective management plan were provided. Changes in these parameters were further related to the observed variations in the meteorological conditions and in the land cover/land use. The increase in nutrients and ions in the water column, and of potentially toxic metals in the sediment, were more obvious in periods of severe drought. Further, the enhancement of nutrients concentrations, potentially caused by the intensification of agricultural activities, may indicate an increased risk of water eutrophication. The results highlight that a holistic approach is essential for a better water resources management strategy.

scholarly journals Impact of Large-Scale Climate Indices on Meteorological Drought of Coastal Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Martin Addi ◽  
Kofi Asare ◽  
Samuel Kofi Fosuhene ◽  
Theophilus Ansah-Narh ◽  
Kenneth Aidoo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Dry Seasons

The devastating effects of drought on agriculture, water resources, and other socioeconomic activities have severe consequences on food security and water resource management. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk management. In this study, meteorological droughts over six coastal synoptic stations were investigated using three-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The dry seasons of November-December-January (NDJ), December-January-February (DJF), and January-February-March (JFM) were the focal seasons for the study. Trends of dry seasons SPIs were evaluated using seasonal Mann–Kendall test. The relationship between drought SPI and ocean-atmosphere climate indices and their predictive ability were assessed using Pearson correlation and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) stepwise regression method to select best climate indices at lagged timestep that fit the SPI. The SPI exhibited moderate to severe drought during the dry seasons. Accra exhibited a significant increasing SPI trend in JFM, NDJ, and DJF seasons. Besides, Saltpond during DJF, Tema, and Axim in NDJ season showed significant increasing trend of SPI. In recent years, SPIs in dry seasons are increasing, an indication of weak drought intensity, and the catchment areas are becoming wetter in the traditional dry seasons. Direct (inverse) relationship was established between dry seasons SPIs and Atlantic (equatorial Pacific) ocean's climate indices. The significant climate indices modulating drought SPIs at different time lags are a combination of either Nino 3.4, Nino 4, Nino 3, Nino 1 + 2, TNA, TSA, AMM, or AMO for a given station. The AIC stepwise regression model explained up to 48% of the variance in the drought SPI and indicates Nino 3.4, Nino 4, Nino 3, Nino 1 + 2, TNA, TSA, AMM, and AMO have great potential for seasonal drought prediction over Coastal Ghana.

Drought dynamics and variability over Bundelkhand region of central India: Past, Present and Future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Saquib Saharwardi ◽  
Aditya Kumar Dubey ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Central India ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Future Projection ◽  
Russian Science ◽  
Regional Drought

<p>In the present study, an evaluation of the past, present, and future variability of droughts in the Bundelkhand region of Central India are analyzed. Bundelkhand is a severe drought-prone region with intense water stress, where in the last five years four were drought. Therefore, understanding the drivers of drought over the region and its future projection is quite crucial for regional water management. The assessment has been made by analyzing the observational dataset from 1951-2018 to understand the regional drought dynamics. The future projection is made using a multi-model ensemble from a regional climate model over the CORDEX South-Asia domain under the highest emission scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) indices are used to understand present drought and its future projection. In addition to this, drought driving parameters like precipitation, temperature, sea-surface temperature wind circulation has been assessed to understand the regional drought dynamics. The composite analysis of drought indicates that the moisture-laden low-level jet from the Arabian Sea branch generally weakened compared to Bay of Bengal branch for monsoon season. Teleconnections of drought over Bundelkhand region shows that nearly half of the droughts are linked to El-Nino events that have become stronger in recent past. The model result reveals that regional climate variability is reasonably captured over the region. In addition, we found increasing drought frequency since the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. The detailed results from the analysis will be shown briefly in the general assembly.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgement: </strong>This work is jointly supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India, grant number DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G and the Russian Science Foundation (Project No.: 19-47-02015). The first author is also thankful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India for providing DST INSPIRE fellowship (Grant No. IF160281).</p>

scholarly journals Elucidating Diverse Drought Characteristics from Two Meteorological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI) in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1513-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingcheng Li ◽  
Dunxian She ◽  
Hui Zheng ◽  
Peirong Lin ◽  
Zong-Liang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Drought Characteristics

AbstractThis study elucidates drought characteristics in China during 1980–2015 using two commonly used meteorological drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that SPEI characterizes an overall increase in drought severity, area, and frequency during 1998–2015 compared with those during 1980–97, mainly due to the increasing potential evapotranspiration. By contrast, SPI does not reveal this phenomenon since precipitation does not exhibit a significant change overall. We further identify individual drought events using the three-dimensional (i.e., longitude, latitude, and time) clustering algorithm and apply the severity–area–duration (SAD) method to examine the drought spatiotemporal dynamics. Compared to SPI, SPEI identifies a lower drought frequency but with larger total drought areas overall. Additionally, SPEI identifies a greater number of severe drought events but a smaller number of slight drought events than the SPI. Approximately 30% of SPI-detected drought grids are not identified as drought by SPEI, and 40% of SPEI-detected drought grids are not recognized as drought by SPI. Both indices can roughly capture the major drought events, but SPEI-detected drought events are overall more severe than SPI. From the SAD analysis, SPI tends to identify drought as more severe over small areas within 1 million km2 and short durations less than 2 months, whereas SPEI tends to delineate drought as more severe across expansive areas larger than 3 million km2 and periods longer than 3 months. Given the fact that potential evapotranspiration increases in a warming climate, this study suggests SPEI may be more suitable than SPI in monitoring droughts under climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation of temporal drought variation and projection in a tropical river basin of Kerala

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 115-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Jincy Rose ◽  
N. R. Chithra
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Tropical River ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Temperature is an indispensable parameter of climate that triggers evapotranspiration and has vital importance in aggravating drought severity. This paper analyses the existence and persistence of drought conditions which are said to prevail in a tropical river basin which was once perennial. Past observed data and future climate projections of precipitation and temperature were used for this purpose. The assessment and projection of this study employ the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) compared with that of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate the existence of drought in the past and the drought conditions that may persist in the future according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The past drought years identified in the study were compared with the drought declared years in the state and were found to be matching. The evaluation of the future scenarios unveils the occurrence of drought in the basin ranging from mild to extreme conditions. It has been noted that the number of moderate and severe drought months has increased based on SPEI compared to SPI, indicating the importance of temperature in drought studies. The study can be considered as a plausible scientific remark helpful in risk management and application decisions.

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