Drought dynamics and variability over Bundelkhand region of central India: Past, Present and Future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Saquib Saharwardi ◽  
Aditya Kumar Dubey ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Central India ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Future Projection ◽  
Russian Science ◽  
Regional Drought

<p>In the present study, an evaluation of the past, present, and future variability of droughts in the Bundelkhand region of Central India are analyzed. Bundelkhand is a severe drought-prone region with intense water stress, where in the last five years four were drought. Therefore, understanding the drivers of drought over the region and its future projection is quite crucial for regional water management. The assessment has been made by analyzing the observational dataset from 1951-2018 to understand the regional drought dynamics. The future projection is made using a multi-model ensemble from a regional climate model over the CORDEX South-Asia domain under the highest emission scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) indices are used to understand present drought and its future projection. In addition to this, drought driving parameters like precipitation, temperature, sea-surface temperature wind circulation has been assessed to understand the regional drought dynamics. The composite analysis of drought indicates that the moisture-laden low-level jet from the Arabian Sea branch generally weakened compared to Bay of Bengal branch for monsoon season. Teleconnections of drought over Bundelkhand region shows that nearly half of the droughts are linked to El-Nino events that have become stronger in recent past. The model result reveals that regional climate variability is reasonably captured over the region. In addition, we found increasing drought frequency since the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. The detailed results from the analysis will be shown briefly in the general assembly.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgement: </strong>This work is jointly supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India, grant number DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G and the Russian Science Foundation (Project No.: 19-47-02015). The first author is also thankful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India for providing DST INSPIRE fellowship (Grant No. IF160281).</p>

scholarly journals Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1765-1784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhadeep Halder ◽  
Subodh K. Saha ◽  
Paul A. Dirmeyer ◽  
Thomas N. Chase ◽  
Bhupendra Nath Goswami
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Central India ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Rainfall Events

Abstract. Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. It is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.

scholarly journals Simulation of characteristic features of Asian summer monsoon using a regional climate model

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-230
Author(s):  
O. P. SINGH ◽  
K. RUPA KUMAR ◽  
P. K. MISHRA ◽  
K. KRISHNA KUMAR ◽  
S. K. PATWARDHAN
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Gas Concentration ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Characteristic Features

Lkkj & bl 'kks/k&i= esa HkweaMyh; tyok;q ifjorZu ds ifj.kkeLo:i 'krkCnh ds e/; ¼2041&60½ ds nkSjku ,f’k;kbZ xzh"edkyhu ekulwu ds fof’k"V y{k.kksa dk iwokZuqeku djus ds mÌs’; ls vuqdj.k iz;ksxksa ds ifj.kke izLrqr fd, x, gSaA blds fy, gSMys tyok;q iwokZuqeku vkSj vuqla/kku dsUnz] ;w- ds- dk {ks=h; tyok;q ekWMy gSM vkj- ,e- 2 dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA ,f’k;kbZ {ks= ds fy, 20 o"kksZa dh vof/k ds nks vuqdj.k iz;ksx fd, x, gSa uker% igyk] 1990 Lrjksa ds vuq:i xzhu gkml xSl lkanz.k dh fu/kkZfjr ek=k] ftls dUVªksy ¼lh- Vh- ,y-½ iz;ksx dgk x;k gS vkSj nwljk 1990 ls ysdj 2041&60 rd ds fy, xzhu gkml xSl lkanz.k ds okf"kZd feJ.k esa 1 izfr’kr dh o`f) lesr ftls vkxs xzhu gkml xSl ¼th- ,p- th-½ iz;ksx dgk x;k gSA xzhu gkml xSl lkanz.k esa okf"kZd feJ.k esa 1 izfr’kr dh o`f) tyok;q ifjorZu ds var% ljdkjh iSuy vkbZ- ih- lh- lh- }kjk rS;kj dh xbZ ;kstuk ls yh xbZ gSA bu iz;ksxksa ls 'krkCnh ds e/; ds nkSjku ,f’k;kbZ xzh"edkyhu ekulwu esa ik, tkus okys fof’k"V y{k.kksa esa gksus okys dqN ifjorZuksa dk irk pyk gS ftudk c<+s gq, ekuotfur mRltZdksa ds dkj.k gksuk LokHkkfor gSA lewph ekulwu _rq ds nkSjku Hkkjrh; {ks= ij fuEu {kksHk eaMy ¼850 gSDVkikLdy½ esa ekulwu nzks.kh ¼,e- Vh- ½ dk mRrj dh vksj lkekU; :i ls c<+uk lcls vf/kd egRoiw.kZ ifjorZu izrhr gksrk gSA vuqdj.k ifj.kkeksa ls ekulwu _rq ds nkSjku vjc lkxj esa leqnz Lrj nkc ¼,l- ,y- ih-½ esa yxHkx 1&2 gS- ik- dh o`f) dk irk pyk gS ftlds ifj.kkeLo:i fuEu {kksHk eaMy esa vlkekU; izfrpØokr gksrs gSaA bldk vFkZ ;g gqvk fd fuEu Lrjh; tsV ¼,y- ,y- ts-½ vkSj vjc lkxj esa ekulwu dh /kkjk det+ksj iM+ tkrh gSA ;g ekWMy m".krj leqnz lrg dh fLFkfr;ksa esa fgan egklkxj ds mRrj esa ekulwuh pØokrh; fo{kksHkksa dh vko`fr esa deh dks vuqdfjr djrk gS tks gky gh ds n’kdksa esa ekulwu ds vonkcksa dh vko`fr esa deh dh izo`fr;ksa ds vuq:i ikbZ xbZ gSA bu iz;ksxksa ls ;g irk pyrk gS fd ikfdLrku vkSj mlds lehiorhZ mRrjh if’peh Hkkjr ds Åij Å"ek fuEunkc rhoz gks ldrk gS vkSj ekulwu _rq           ds nkSjku FkksM+k iwoZ dh vksj c<+ ldrh gSA ;g ekWMy] Hkkjrh; leqnz ds nf{k.kh Hkkxksa esa 8° & 10° m- ds chp 100 gS- ik- ¼Vh- bZ- ts- dksj dk Lrj½ ij fo’ks"kdj ekulwu ds iwokZ)Z ds nkSjku m".kdfVca/kh; iwokZfHkeq[kh tsV¼Vh- bZ- ts-½ dks izHkkfor djrk gSA The paper presents the results of simulation experiments aimed at predicting the characteristic features of Asian Summer Monsoon during the middle of the century (2041-60) resulting from global climate change. The model used is HadRM2 regional climate model of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. Two simulation experiments of 20 years length have been performed for the Asian domain, namely, one with a fixed amount of greenhouse gas concentration corresponding to 1990 levels called the 'control' (CTL) experiment and the other with the annual compound increase of 1 % in the greenhouse gas concentration for 2041-60 from 1990 onwards called the 'greenhouse gas' (GHG) experiment. The annual compound increment of 1 %, in the greenhouse gas concentration has been adopted from the projection given by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). The experiments have brought out some of the changes in the characteristic features of mid-century Asian summer monsoons that are expected to occur due to increased anthropogenic emissions. The most significant change seems to be a general northward shift of the monsoon trough (MT) in the lower troposphere (850 hPa) throughout the monsoon season over the Indian region. The simulation results have shown an increase of about 1-2 hPa in the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Arabian Sea during the monsoon resulting in an anomalous anticyclone over there in the lower troposphere. This would mean the weakening of Low Level Jet (LLJ) and the Arabian sea branch of the monsoon current. The model has simulated a decrease in the frequency of the monsoonal cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean under the warmer sea surface conditions which conforms to the observed decreasing trends in the frequency of monsoon depressions in recent decades. The experiments have shown that the Heat Low over Pakistan and adjoining northwest India, may intensify and shift slightly eastward during the monsoon. The model has simulated the strengthening of Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) at          100 hPa (the location of TEJ core ) over the southern parts of Indian sea between 8° - 10° N, especially during the first half of the monsoon season.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

scholarly journals Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 805-820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shun-ichi I. WATANABE ◽  
Akihiko MURATA ◽  
Hidetaka SASAKI ◽  
Hiroaki KAWASE ◽  
Masaya NOSAKA
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Projection

scholarly journals Applying machine learning for drought prediction using data from a large ensemble of climate simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizaveta Felsche ◽  
Ralf Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The North ◽  
Soil Variables ◽  
Drought Prediction

Abstract. There is strong scientific and social interest to understand the factors leading to extreme events in order to improve the management of risks associated with hazards like droughts. In this study, artificial neural networks are applied to predict the occurrence of a drought in two contrasting European domains, Munich and Lisbon, with a lead time of one month. The approach takes into account a list of 30 atmospheric and soil variables as input parameters from a single-model initial condition large ensemble (CRCM5-LE). The data was produced the context of the ClimEx project by Ouranos with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by 50 members of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). Drought occurrence was defined using the Standardized Precipitation Index. The best performing machine learning algorithms managed to obtain a correct classification of drought or no drought for a lead time of one month for around 55–60 % of the events of each class for both domains. Explainable AI methods like SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to gain a better understanding of the trained algorithms. Variables like the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and air pressure one month before the event proved to be of high importance for the prediction. The study showed that seasonality has a high influence on goodness of drought prediction, especially for the Lisbon domain.

scholarly journals Water supply patterns over Germany under climate change conditions

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2959-2972 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. Tölle ◽  
C. Moseley ◽  
O. Panferov ◽  
G. Busch ◽  
A. Knohl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Time Periods

Abstract. A large ensemble of 24 bias-corrected and uncorrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations is used to investigate climate change impacts on water supply patterns over Germany using the seasonal winter and summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on 6-month precipitation sums. The climate change signal is studied comparing SPI characteristics for the reference period 1971–2000 with those of the "near" (2036–2065) and the "far" (2071–2100) future. The spread of the climate change signal within the simulation ensemble of bias-corrected versus non-corrected data is discussed. Ensemble scenarios are evaluated against available observation-based data over the reference period 1971–2000. After correcting the model biases, the model ensemble underestimates the variability of the precipitation climatology in the reference period, but replicates the mean characteristics. Projections of water supply patterns based on the SPI for the time periods 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 show wetter winter months during both future time periods. As a result soil drying may be delayed to late spring extending into the summer period, which could have an important effect on sensible heat fluxes. While projections indicate wetting in summer during 2036–2065, drier summers are estimated towards the south-west of Germany for the end of the 21st century. The use of the bias correction intensifies the signal to wetter conditions for both seasons and time periods. The spread in the projection of future water supply patterns between the ensemble members is explored, resulting in high spatial differences that suggest a higher uncertainty of the climate change signal in the southern part of Germany. It is shown that the spread of the climate change signals between SPIs based on single ensemble members is twice as large as the difference between the mean climate change signal of SPIs based on bias-corrected and uncorrected precipitation. This implies that the sensitivity of the SPI to the modelled precipitation bias is small compared to the range of the climate change signals within our ensemble. Therefore, the SPI is a very useful tool for climate change studies allowing us to avoid the additional uncertainties caused by bias corrections.

scholarly journals Assessing the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Kevin D. Talgo ◽  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Christopher G. Nolte
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Resources Planning

In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to ascertain the added value of dynamical downscaling over the contiguous United States. WRF is used as a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale reanalysis fields to compare values of SPI over drought timescales that have implications for agriculture and water resources planning. The regional climate generated by WRF has the largest improvement over reanalysis for SPI correlation with observations as the drought timescale increases. This suggests that dynamically downscaled fields may be more reliable than larger-scale fields for water resource applications (e.g., water storage within reservoirs). WRF improves the timing and intensity of moderate to extreme wet and dry periods, even in regions with homogenous terrain. This study also examines changes in SPI from the extreme drought of 1988 and three “drought busting” tropical storms. Each of those events illustrates the importance of using downscaling to resolve the spatial extent of droughts. The analysis of the “drought busting” tropical storms demonstrates that while the impact of these storms on ending prolonged droughts is improved by the RCM relative to the reanalysis, it remains underestimated. These results illustrate the importance and some limitations of using RCMs to project drought.

scholarly journals Simulation of Monsoon Precipitation over South-Asia Using RegCM3

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Basit ◽  
S. Shoaib Raza ◽  
N. Irfan ◽  
R. Avila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Parameterization Schemes

The objective of this study is to explore the capability of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), to predict the extreme weather events in south-Asian region with particular reference to precipitation during monsoon season (July, August and September) over northern mountainous and southern plain regions of Pakistan. Different cumulus parameterization schemes in RegCM3 for prediction of convective precipitation are tested for monsoon period during the years 1998 and 2001. The model results are compared with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data and the surface synoptic data of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The year 1998 was a dry year and proved to be the beginning of a severe drought lasted up to the year 2000. While in year 2001 the precipitation over some parts of the country exceeded the normal, especially the northern parts of the country observed exceptionally high rainfall rate. The results indicate that some convective parameterization schemes of RegCM3 well captured the summer monsoon precipitation over Pakistan. However, the schemes need to be selected carefully depending upon the region of interest. It was found that the Grell scheme with both closures: Arakawa-Schubert (AS) and Fritsch-Chappell (FC) satisfactorily captured the monsoon phenomenon in Pakistan specially for the northern mountainous regions.

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