Influence of regional anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late Holocene (~2500 years before present)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ram Singh ◽  
Allegra N. LeGrande ◽  
Kostas Tsigaridis
Keyword(s):  
Late Holocene ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Before Present ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
River Floodplains ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
The Impact

<p>The societal impacts of climate change during the late Holocene leads to regional anthropogenic changes over the Nile region floodplain and could have acted in tandem with natural factors like major volcanic eruptions on the regional climate system to magnify the local climatic impacts. This study aims to explore and investigate the sensitivity of climatic changes to the regional anthropogenic changes due to various factors over the Nile river floodplains during the late-Holocene (2.5K years before present). The GISS ModelE Earth system model will be used to simulate the various scenarios of regional increasing/decreasing river fraction, changes in vegetation type and cover, along with changes in land surface type against the no-changes scenario in absence of volcanic eruptions. The spatial coverage of the Nile river basin is estimated using the GIS shapefile based on elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at 3 Arc-seconds (approx. 90-meter) horizontal resolution. The extent of flooding in the model grid (2.0°x2.5° in latitude and longitude) is estimated using the existing high-resolution (0.125°x0.125°) gridded topographic elevation information and mapped over the Nile river floodplains. This study also focuses on evaluating the NASA GISS ModelE for resolving the climate feedbacks and response on climate system due to anthropogenic changes and volcanic eruptions. It is also aimed to analyze and quantify the impact of various anthropogenic factors over the African monsoon system and rainfall over the region, which feeds the Nile River.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Illing ◽  
Christopher Kadow ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the time scale of a few years; but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the question emerges how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean, to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase among other things. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over four years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm/day, is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger than in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Illing ◽  
Christopher Kadow ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day−1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

Urbanization of fauna on the example of marsh frog (Pelophylax ridibundus)

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 116-123
Author(s):  
A. P. Korzh ◽  
T. V. Zahovalko
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Cognitive Modeling ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Cellular Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Migration Routes ◽  
Corrective Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Recently, the number of published works devoted to the processes of synanthropization of fauna, is growing like an avalanche, which indicates the extreme urgency of this theme. In our view, the process of forming devices to coexist with human and the results of his life reflects the general tandency of the modern nature evolution. Urbanization is characteristic for such a specific group of animals like amphibians, the evidence of which are numerous literature data. Many researchers use this group to assess the bioindicative quality of the environment. For this aim a variety of indicators are used: from the cellular level of life of organization up to the species composition of the group in different territories. At the same time, the interpretation of the results is not always comparable for different areas and often have significantly different interpretations by experts. Urban environment, primarily due to the contamination is extremely aggressive to amphibians. As a consequence, the urban populations of amphibians may be a change in the demographic structure, affecting the reproductive ability of the population, the disappearance of the most sensitive species or individuals, resizing animals, the appearance of abnormalities in the development, etc. At the same time play an important amphibians in the ecosystems of cities, and some species in these conditions even feel relatively comfortable. Therefore, it is interesting to understand the mechanisms of self-sustaining populations of amphibians in urban environments. To assess the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on the development of amphibian populations were used cognitive modeling using the program Vensim PLE. Cognitive map of the model for urban and suburban habitat conditions were the same. The differences concerned the strength of connections between individual factors (migration, fertility, pollution) and their orientation. In general, factors like pollution, parasites, predators had negative impact on the population, reducing its number. The birth rate, food and migration contributed to raising number of individuals. Some of the factors affected on the strength to of each other as well: the majority of the factors affected the structure of the population, had an influence on the fertility. Thanks to it the model reflects the additive effect of complex of factors on the subsequent status of the population. Proposed and analyzed four scenarios differing strength and duration of exposure. In the first scenario, a one-time contamination occurs and not subsequently repeated. The second and third scenario assumes half board contamination, 1 year (2 scenario) and two years (scenario 3). In the fourth scenario, the pollution affected the population of amphibians constantly. In accordance with the results of simulation, much weaker than the natural populations respond to pollution - have them as an intensive population growth and its disappearance at constant pollution is slow. Changes to other parameters of the model showed that this pollution is the decisive factor -only the constant action leads to a lethal outcome for the populations. All other components of the model have a corrective effect on the population dynamics, without changing its underlying trand. In urban areas due to the heavy impact of pollution maintaining the population is only possible thanks to the migration process – the constant replenishment of diminishing micropopulations of natural reserves. This confirms the assumption that the form of existence metapopulations lake frog in the city. In order to maintain the number of amphibians in urban areas at a high level it is necessary to maintain existing migration routes and the creation of new ones. Insular nature of the placement of suitable habitats in urban areas causes the metapopulation structure of the types of urbanists. Therefore, the process of urbanization is much easier for those species whicht are capable of migration in conditions of city. In the initial stages of settling the city micropopulationis formed by selective mortality of the most susceptible individuals to adverse effects. In future, maintaining the categories of individuals is provided mainly due to migration processes metapopulisation form of the species of existence is supported). It should be noted that the changes in the previous levels are always saved in future. In the case of reorganizations of individuals we of morphology can assume the existence of extremely adverse environmental conditions that threaten the extinction of the micropopulations. 

Анализ «Методики разработки нормативов допустимых сбросов веществ и микроорганизмов в водные объекты для водопользователей» в общем контексте водоохранного законодательства (в порядке обсуждения)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Saakian ◽  
Aleksandr, Grigor’ev ◽  
E. Kravets ◽  
E. Rudakov ◽  
A. Faddeev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Water Protection ◽  
Best Available Technologies ◽  
Process Indicators ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Quality Of Water ◽  
Protection Legislation ◽  
The Impact

Выполнен анализ действующей редакции Методики разработки нормативов допустимых сбросов веществ и микроорганизмов в водные объекты для водопользователей , утвержденной приказом Минприроды России от 17 декабря 2007 г. 333, на предмет непротиворечивости и соответствия нормам водоохранного законодательства. Выявлена неопределенность применения Методики в условиях воздействия на качество воды природных и антропогенных факторов, не зависящих от конкретного водопользователя. Положения Методики противоречат принципам нормирования воздействия на водные объекты на основе наилучших доступных технологий, что было показано на примерах утвержденных технологических показателей содержания загрязняющих веществ в сточных водах различных отраслей промышленности. Анализ системы нормирования допустимых воздействий на водные объекты и географической дифференциации нормативов качества воды в пределах Российской Федерации вместе с системой целевых показателей качества воды также показал несоответствие Методики основным принципам водоохранного законодательства.The analysis of the current edition of the Methods of developing standards for permissible discharges of substances and microorganisms into water bodies for water users , approved by the Order of the Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia dated December 17, 2007 No. 333 for consilience and compliance with the regulations of the water protection legislation, is carried out. Uncertainty of the application of the Methods in the conditions of the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors that are independent of a specific water user on the quality of water has been identified. The provisions of the Methods contradict the principles of regulating the impact on water bodies based on the best available technologies shown on the examples of approved process indicators of the concentrations of various industrial pollutants in wastewater. An analysis of the system of regulating the permissible impact on water bodies and the geographical differentiation of water quality standards within the boundaries of the Russian Federation, together with the system of water quality targets, also showed that the Methods do not comply with the basic principles of the water protection legislation.

scholarly journals Seaweeds As a “Palatable” Challenge between Innovation and Sustainability: A Systematic Review of Food Safety

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7652
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Cavallo ◽  
Chiara Lorini ◽  
Giuseppe Garamella ◽  
Guglielmo Bonaccorsi
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Food System ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Novel Foods ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
Polluted Sites ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

Moderate or severe food insecurity affect 2 billion people worldwide. The four pillars of food security (availability, access, use and stability) are in danger due to the impact of climatic and anthropogenic factors which impact on the food system. Novel foods, like seaweeds, have the potential to increase food yields so that to contribute in preventing or avoiding future global food shortages. The purpose of this systematic review was to assess microbiological, chemical, physical, and allergenic risks associated with seaweed consumption. Four research strings have been used to search for these risks. Preferred Reporting Item for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines were applied. Finally, 39 articles met the selected criteria. No significant hazards for microbiological, allergenic, and physical risks were detected. Regarding chemical risk, algae can accumulate various heavy metals, especially when harvested in polluted sites. Cultivating seaweeds in a controlled environment allows to avoid this risk. Periodic checks will be necessary on the finished products to monitor heavy metals levels. Since the consumption of algae seems to be on the rise everywhere, it seems to be urgent that food control authorities establish the safety levels to which eating algae does not represent any risk for human health.

scholarly journals Geoinformation Technologies in Support of Environmental Hazards Monitoring under Climate Change: An Extensive Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Andreas Tsatsaris ◽  
Kleomenis Kalogeropoulos ◽  
Nikolaos Stathopoulos ◽  
Panagiota Louka ◽  
Konstantinos Tsanakas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Monitoring ◽  
Environmental Hazards ◽  
Geographic Information ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Geospatial Technologies ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
The Impact

Human activities and climate change constitute the contemporary catalyst for natural processes and their impacts, i.e., geo-environmental hazards. Globally, natural catastrophic phenomena and hazards, such as drought, soil erosion, quantitative and qualitative degradation of groundwater, frost, flooding, sea level rise, etc., are intensified by anthropogenic factors. Thus, they present rapid increase in intensity, frequency of occurrence, spatial density, and significant spread of the areas of occurrence. The impact of these phenomena is devastating to human life and to global economies, private holdings, infrastructure, etc., while in a wider context it has a very negative effect on the social, environmental, and economic status of the affected region. Geospatial technologies including Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing—Earth Observation as well as related spatial data analysis tools, models, databases, contribute nowadays significantly in predicting, preventing, researching, addressing, rehabilitating, and managing these phenomena and their effects. This review attempts to mark the most devastating geo-hazards from the view of environmental monitoring, covering the state of the art in the use of geospatial technologies in that respect. It also defines the main challenge of this new era which is nothing more than the fictitious exploitation of the information produced by the environmental monitoring so that the necessary policies are taken in the direction of a sustainable future. The review highlights the potential and increasing added value of geographic information as a means to support environmental monitoring in the face of climate change. The growth in geographic information seems to be rapidly accelerated due to the technological and scientific developments that will continue with exponential progress in the years to come. Nonetheless, as it is also highlighted in this review continuous monitoring of the environment is subject to an interdisciplinary approach and contains an amount of actions that cover both the development of natural phenomena and their catastrophic effects mostly due to climate change.

scholarly journals Reservoir-Induced Land Deformation: Case Study from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Yu Chen ◽  
Mohamed Ahmed ◽  
Natthachet Tangdamrongsub ◽  
Dorina Murgulet
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Vertical Displacement ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Reservoir Volume ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Land Deformation ◽  
Large Scale Land ◽  
The Impact

The Nile River stretches from south to north throughout the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Northeast Africa. Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile originates, has begun the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will be used to generate electricity. However, the impact of the GERD on land deformation caused by significant water relocation has not been rigorously considered in the scientific research. In this study, we develop a novel approach for predicting large-scale land deformation induced by the construction of the GERD reservoir. We also investigate the limitations of using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE-FO) mission to detect GERD-induced land deformation. We simulated three land deformation scenarios related to filling the expected reservoir volume, 70 km3, using 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios. The results indicated: (i) trends in downward vertical displacement estimated at −17.79 ± 0.02, −8.90 ± 0.09, and −5.94 ± 0.05 mm/year, for the 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios, respectively; (ii) the western (eastern) parts of the GERD reservoir are estimated to move toward the reservoir’s center by +0.98 ± 0.01 (−0.98 ± 0.01), +0.48 ± 0.00 (−0.48 ± 0.00), and +0.33 ± 0.00 (−0.33 ± 0.00) mm/year, under the 5-, 10- and 15-year filling strategies, respectively; (iii) the northern part of the GERD reservoir is moving southward by +1.28 ± 0.02, +0.64 ± 0.01, and +0.43 ± 0.00 mm/year, while the southern part is moving northward by −3.75 ± 0.04, −1.87 ± 0.02, and −1.25 ± 0.01 mm/year, during the three examined scenarios, respectively; and (iv) the GRACE-FO mission can only detect 15% of the large-scale land deformation produced by the GERD reservoir. Methods and results demonstrated in this study provide insights into possible impacts of reservoir impoundment on land surface deformation, which can be adopted into the GERD project or similar future dam construction plans.

scholarly journals Response of simulated burned area to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors: a comparison of seven fire models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3883-3910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Teckentrup ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Angelika Heil ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers on simulated burned area, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2 concentration, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1921. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trends in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the largest uncertainties in simulating global historical burned area are related to the representation of anthropogenic ignitions and suppression and effects of land use on vegetation and fire. In line with previous studies this highlights the need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire within Earth system model applications. Only two models show a strong response to atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on fire are complex and quantitative information of how fuel loads and how flammability changes due to this factor is missing. The response to lightning on global scale is low. The response of burned area to climate is spatially heterogeneous and has a strong inter-annual variation. Climate is therefore likely more important than the other factors for short-term variations and extremes in burned area. This study provides a basis to understand the uncertainties in global fire modelling. Both improvements in process understanding and observational constraints reduce uncertainties in modelling burned area trends.

scholarly journals On the diverse and opposing effects of nutrition on pathogen virulence

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1906) ◽  
pp. 20191220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria L. Pike ◽  
Katrina A. Lythgoe ◽  
Kayla C. King
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Immune System ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Pathogen Virulence ◽  
Disease Outcomes ◽  
Host Nutrition ◽  
Opposing Effects ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and anthropogenic activity are currently driving large changes in nutritional availability across ecosystems, with consequences for infectious disease. An increase in host nutrition could lead to more resources for hosts to expend on the immune system or for pathogens to exploit. In this paper, we report a meta-analysis of studies on host–pathogen systems across the tree of life, to examine the impact of host nutritional quality and quantity on pathogen virulence. We did not find broad support across studies for a one-way effect of nutrient availability on pathogen virulence. We thus discuss a hypothesis that there is a balance between the effect of host nutrition on the immune system and on pathogen resources, with the pivot point of the balance differing for vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. Our results suggest that variation in nutrition, caused by natural or anthropogenic factors, can have diverse effects on infectious disease outcomes across species.

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