Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Precipitation Variability Through Compositing in Cloud-defined Weather States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Tselioudis ◽  
Jasmine Remillard
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Precipitation Field ◽  
The Past ◽  
Model Skill ◽  
Model Precipitation

<p>In order to understand the mechanisms determining precipitation variability and to evaluate model skill in simulating those mechanisms, it is important to partition the precipitation field into regimes that include distinct sets of processes. In the past, dynamic fields like omega and SLP have been used to define regimes and study cloud, radiation, and precipitation variability. More recently, cloud-defined weather states were derived and used for similar analyses. Here, we apply a new cloud-defined Weather State dataset derived from the higher-resolution ISCCP-H data to examine precipitation variability at global scales and evaluate CMIP6 model precipitation simulations . In addition, precipitation partitioning using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity is performed, and the differences between the results of the two compositing methodologies are discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Precipitation variability within the West Pacific Warm Pool over the past 120 ka: Evidence from the Davao Gulf, southern Philippines

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 1094-1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Fraser ◽  
Wolfgang Kuhnt ◽  
Ann Holbourn ◽  
Timothé Bolliet ◽  
Nils Andersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warm Pool ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The West ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool

scholarly journals Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1919-1938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Shi ◽  
Sen Zhao ◽  
Zhengtang Guo ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
Qiuzhen Yin
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Western China ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Precipitation Field ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Second Mode ◽  
Grid Points ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. The dominant modes of variability of precipitation for the whole of China over the past millennium and the mechanism governing their spatial structure remain unclear. This is mainly due to insufficient high-resolution proxy records of precipitation in western China. Numerous tree-ring chronologies have recently been archived in publicly available databases through PAGES2k activities, and these provide an opportunity to refine precipitation field reconstructions for China. Based on 479 proxy records, including 371 tree-ring width chronologies, a tree-ring isotope chronology, and 107 drought/flood indices, we reconstruct the precipitation field for China for the past half millennium using the optimal information extraction method. A total of 3631 of 4189 grid points in the reconstruction field passed the cross-validation process, accounting for 86.68 % of the total number of grid points. The first leading mode of variability of the reconstruction shows coherent variations over most of China. The second mode is a north–south dipole in eastern China characterized by variations of the same sign in western China and northern China (except for Xinjiang province). It is likely controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The third mode is a sandwich triple mode in eastern China including variations of the same sign in western China and central China. The last two modes are reproduced by most of the six coupled climate models' last millennium simulations performed in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). In particular, the link of the second mode with ENSO is confirmed by the models. However, there is a mismatch between models and proxy reconstructions in the time development of different modes. This mismatch suggests the important role of internal variability in the reconstructed precipitation mode variations of the past 500 years.

scholarly journals Climate patterns in north central China during the last 1800 yr and its possible driving force

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1029-1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tan ◽  
Y. Cai ◽  
Z. An ◽  
H. Zhang ◽  
S. Qin
Keyword(s):  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Central China ◽  
Historical Document ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
North Central ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Precipitation Record ◽  
Phase Variations

Abstract. We synthesized high-resolution precisely-dated stalagmite records and historical document records from north central China to reconstruct a decadal resolution precipitation record during the last 1800 yr (190–1980 AD). Several notable wet intervals were identified: 190s–290s, 560s–850s, 920s–1000s, 1090s–1130s, 1880s–1910s. The most remarkable dry epoch was inferred in 1330s–1860s, and the driest period was in the first half of the 17th century. Other decade droughts were found in the 300s–310s, 340s, 460s, 880s, 1030s, 1070s, 1210s and 1920s. The precipitation variability shows significant positive correlation with the temperature variability, suggesting a warm-humid or cool-dry pattern in north central China over the past 1800 yr. The abnormal warm-dry climate observed in the late 20th century in this region may suggest that the dominant forcing of climate variability changed from natural to anthropogenic. Solar activity may be the dominant natural force that drove the same-phase variations of the temperature and precipitation in north central China on centennial- to decadal-scale.

scholarly journals Phenological behavior of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) forest to snow and precipitation variability in Boutaleb and Babors Mountains, Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaled Missaoui ◽  
Rachid Gharzouli ◽  
Yamna Djellouli ◽  
Frençois Messner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Cedrus Atlantica ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Missaoui K, Gharzouli R, Djellouli Y, Messner F. 2020. Phenological behavior of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica)  forest to snow and precipitation variability in Boutaleb and Babors Mountains, Algeria. Biodiversitas 21: 239-245. Understanding the changes in snow and precipitation variability and how forest vegetation response to such changes is very important to maintain the long-term sustainability of the forest. However, relatively few studies have investigated this phenomenon in Algeria. This study was aimed to find out the response of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) G.Manetti ex Carrière) forest in two areas (i.e Boutaleb and Babors Mountains) and their response to the precipitation and snow variability. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) generated from satellite images of MODIS time series was used to survey the changes of the Atlas cedar throughout the study area well as dataset of monthly precipitation and snow of the province of Setif (northeast of Algeria) from 2000 to 2018. Descriptive analysis using Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI) showed the wetter years were more frequent in the past than in the last two decades. The NDVI values changes in both areas with high values were detected in Babors Mountains with statistically significant differences. Our findings showed important difference in Atlas cedar phenology from Boutaleb mountains to Babors Mountains which likely related to snow factor.

Precipitation Variability and Extreme Events in Eastern China during the Past 1500 Years

2006 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyun Zheng ◽  
Wei-Chyung Wang ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Zhimin Man ◽  
Piyuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The Past

Tree-ring-based precipitation variability over the past 373 years in the Sayram Lake Basin, Tianshan Mountians

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
秦莉 QIN Li ◽  
袁玉江 YUAN Yujiang ◽  
喻树龙 YU Shulong ◽  
范子昂 FAN Zi'ang ◽  
尚华明 SHANG Huaming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
The Past

scholarly journals Multi-Time-Scale Climatic Variations over Eastern China and Implications for the South–North Water Diversion Project

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Hongbin Liu ◽  
Ziying Chu ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Pan Evaporation ◽  
The South ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Water Diversion Project ◽  
North Water

Abstract Middle and eastern routes of the South–North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°–42°N and 110°–122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50–100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness–wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160–170- and 70–80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100–150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997–2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change—in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP.

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