On the role of tropical waves triggering extreme rainfall and flood in Sulawesi, Indonesia: a multi-scale interaction perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beata Latos ◽  
Thierry Lefort ◽  
Maria Flatau ◽  
Donaldi Permana ◽  
Piotr Flatau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
The South ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
Rain Events

<p>On January 22, 2019 extreme rainfall in the South-Western Sulawesi, Indonesia, triggered a massive, deadly flood, the most devastating one ever reported. This happened during an interaction of a robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) and Equatorial Rossby Wave (ER). Potential causes of a flood include Madden Julian-Oscillation active phase, rainy season with monsoonal flow in the Karimata Strait, positive sea surface temperature anomalies supportive of convection, and synoptic-scale weather systems. All these factors can contribute to extreme rainfall and a flood development. Nonetheless, here we show that in this particular case enhancement of low-level westerlies led to convergence and forced ascend of moist air over orographic features of the south-western Sulawesi. This chain of processes was a result of a propagation of a CCKW, with contribution from an ER. Satellite and radar data analysis, as well as in-situ observations reveal that convergence and strong westerlies in the Java Sea, forced by the CCKW, resulted in the rain events in Jeneberang River Basin and the devastating flood in the city of Makassar.</p><p>Additional analysis of 20 years of the flood database together with in situ observations and satellite data support our hypothesis, based on this case study, of a significance of an enhanced westerlies as a precursor of extreme rain events and floods in Makassar, the capital and most populous city in Sulawesi.</p>

scholarly journals An algorithm for detecting <i>Trichodesmium</i> surface blooms in the South Western Tropical Pacific

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 5653-5689 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dupouy ◽  
D. Benielli-Gary ◽  
J. Neveux ◽  
Y. Dandonneau ◽  
T. K. Westberry
Keyword(s):  
Total Surface Area ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
Western Tropical Pacific ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Monthly Distribution ◽  
C And N ◽  
In Situ Observations

Abstract. Trichodesmium, a major colonial cyanobacterial nitrogen fixer, forms large blooms in NO3-depleted tropical oceans and enhances CO2 sequestration by the ocean due to its ability to fix dissolved dinitrogen. Thus, its importance in C and N cycles requires better estimates of its distribution at basin to global scales. However, existing algorithms to detect them from satellite have not yet been successful in the South Western Tropical Pacific (SWTP). Here, a novel approach based on radiance anomaly spectra (RAS) observed in SeaWiFS imagery is used to detect Trichodesmium during the austral summertime in the SWTP. Selected pixels are characterized by a restricted range of parameters quantifying RAS spectra quantitative parameters (e.g. slope, intercept, curvature). The fraction of valid pixels identified as Trichodesmium surface blooms in the region 5° S–25° S 160° E–190° E is low (between 0.01 and 0.2 %), but is about 100 times higher than suggested by previous algorithms. This represents a total surface area which varies from 1500 to 20 000 km2. A monthly distribution of Trichodesmium surface accumulations in the SWTP is presented which demonstrates that the number of selected pixels peaks in November–February each year, consistent with field observations. This approach was validated with in situ observations of Trichodesmium surface accumulations for the period 1998–2010.

Application of SpectralWeather to prediction of flood and extreme rain events in the Maritime Continent

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beata Latos ◽  
Thierry Lefort ◽  
Maria K. Flatau ◽  
Piotr J. Flatau ◽  
Dariusz B. Baranowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Tropical Weather

&lt;p&gt;Monitoring of equatorial wave activity and understanding their nature is of high priority for scientists, weather forecasters and policy makers because these waves and their interactions can serve as precursors for weather-driven natural hazards, such as extreme rain and flood events. We studied such precursors of the January 2019 heavy rain and deadly flood in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system. The latest developed over the Java Sea and propagated onshore, resulting in extreme rain and devastating flood.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For the analysis of the January 2019 flood, we explored large datasets and detected interesting features to find multivariate relationships through visualization. We used SpectralWeather &amp;#8211; a new tool supporting tropical weather training, research and forecasting, easily accessible at https://www.spectralweather.com. Extending Cameron Beccario's earth.nullschool.net project, SpectralWeather focuses on spectral decomposition of meteorological and oceanic fields into equatorial waves &amp;#8211; CCKW, MJO, CCERW and Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves. SpectralWeather uses ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at several levels, NASA GPM rainfall datasets, OMI OLR index, NEMO SST, AVISO sea surface height, and OSCAR currents.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This new visualization tool can help to quantify and understand factors triggering natural hazards in the global tropics. We will discuss its interface and available features, based on the example of the January 2019 Sulawesi flood and other flood and extreme rain events in the Maritime Continent.&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

The Lightning and Dual-Polarization Radar Characteristics of Three Hail-Accumulating Thunderstorms

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 1583-1603
Author(s):  
Robinson Wallace ◽  
Katja Friedrich ◽  
Wiebke Deierling ◽  
Evan A. Kalina ◽  
Paul Schlatter
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Optimal Combination ◽  
Front Range ◽  
Dual Polarization ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Maximum Accumulation ◽  
In Situ Observations

AbstractThunderstorms that produce hail accumulations at the surface can impact residents by obstructing roadways, closing airports, and causing localized flooding from hail-clogged drainages. These storms have recently gained an increased interest within the scientific community. However, differences that are observable in real time between these storms and storms that produce nonimpactful hail accumulations have yet to be documented. Similarly, the characteristics within a single storm that are useful to quantify or predict hail accumulations are not fully understood. This study uses lightning and dual-polarization radar data to characterize hail accumulations from three storms that occurred on the same day along the Colorado–Wyoming Front Range. Each storm’s characteristics are verified against radar-derived hail accumulation maps and in situ observations. The storms differed in maximum accumulation, either producing 22 cm, 7 cm, or no accumulation. The magnitude of surface hail accumulations is found to be dependent on a combination of in-cloud hail production, storm translation speed, and hailstone melting. The optimal combination for substantial hail accumulations is enhanced in-cloud hail production, slow storm speed, and limited hailstone melting. However, during periods of similar in-cloud hail production, lesser accumulations are derived when storm speed and/or hailstone melting, identified by radar presentation, is sufficiently large. These results will aid forecasters in identifying when hail accumulations are occurring in real time.

scholarly journals The Energy Budget of the Polar Atmosphere in MERRA

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard I. Cullather ◽  
Michael G. Bosilovich
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Polar Cap ◽  
The South ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
Energy Convergence ◽  
South Polar

Abstract Components of the atmospheric energy budget from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in polar regions for the period 1979–2005 and compared with previous estimates, in situ observations, and contemporary reanalyses. Closure of the budget is reflected by the analysis increments term, which indicates an energy surplus of 11 W m−2 over the North Polar cap (70°–90°N) and 22 W m−2 over the South Polar cap (70°–90°S). Total atmospheric energy convergence from MERRA compares favorably with previous studies for northern high latitudes but exceeds the available previous estimate for the South Polar cap by 46%. Discrepancies with the Southern Hemisphere energy transport are largest in autumn and may be related to differences in topography with earlier reanalyses. For the Arctic, differences between MERRA and other sources in top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative fluxes are largest in May. These differences are concurrent with the largest discrepancies between MERRA parameterized and observed surface albedo. For May, in situ observations of the upwelling shortwave flux in the Arctic are 80 W m−2 larger than MERRA, while the MERRA downwelling longwave flux is underestimated by 12 W m−2 throughout the year. Over grounded ice sheets, the annual mean net surface energy flux in MERRA is erroneously nonzero. Contemporary reanalyses from the Climate Forecast Center (CFSR) and the Interim Re-Analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I) are found to have better surface parameterizations; however, these reanalyses also disagree with observed surface and TOA energy fluxes. Discrepancies among available reanalyses underscore the challenge of reproducing credible estimates of the atmospheric energy budget in polar regions.

scholarly journals Increasing Trend of Synoptic Activity and Its Relationship with Extreme Rain Events over Central India

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1004-1013 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Ajayamohan ◽  
William J. Merryfield ◽  
Viatcheslav V. Kharin
Keyword(s):  
Activity Index ◽  
Central India ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Strong Connection ◽  
Activity Increase ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events

Abstract The nature of the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record of the paths and intensities of monsoon synoptic disturbances, a synoptic activity index (SAI) is defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that in the number of ERE, demonstrating a strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows a rising trend that is statistically indistinguishable from that in ERE, indicating that the increasing frequency of ERE is likely attributable to a rising trend in synoptic activity. This synoptic activity increase results from a rising trend in relatively weak low pressure systems (LPS), and it outweighs a declining trend in stronger LPS.

scholarly journals Remote Sensing of <i>Trichodesmium</i> spp. mats in the Western Tropical South Pacific

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rousset ◽  
Florian De Boissieu ◽  
Christophe E. Menkes ◽  
Jérôme Lefèvre ◽  
Robert Frouin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Correction ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
False Positive Detection ◽  
Modis Imagery ◽  
In Situ Observations

Abstract. Trichodesmium is the main nitrogen-fixing species in the South Pacific region, a hotspot for diazotrophy. Due to the paucity of in situ observations, methods for detecting Trichodesmium presence on a large scale have been investigated to assess the regional-to-global impact of these species on primary production and carbon cycling. A number of satellite-derived algorithms have been developed to identify Trichodesmium surface blooms, but determining with confidence their accuracy has been difficult, chiefly because of the scarcity of sea-truth information at time of satellite overpass. Here, we use a series of new cruises as well as airborne observational surveys in the South Pacific to quantify statistically the ability of these algorithms to discern correctly Trichodesmium surface blooms in the satellite imagery. The evaluation, performed on MODIS data at 250 m and 1 km resolution acquired over the South West Pacific, shows limitations due to spatial resolution, clouds, and atmospheric correction. A new satellite-based algorithm is designed to alleviate some of these limitations, by exploiting optimally spectral features in the atmospherically corrected reflectance at 531, 645, 678, 748, and 869 nm. This algorithm outperforms former ones near clouds, limiting false positive detection, and allowing regional scale automation. Compared with observations, 80 % of the detected mats are within a 2 km range, demonstrating the good statistical skill of the new algorithm. Application to MODIS imagery acquired during the February–March 2015 OUTPACE campaign reveals the presence of surface blooms Northwest and East of New Caledonia and near 20° S–172° W in qualitative agreement with measured nitrogen fixation rates. The new algorithm, however, fails to detect sub-surface booms evidenced in trichome counts. Improving Trichodesmium detection requires measuring ocean color at higher spectral and spatial (

Updraft Vertical Velocity Observations and Uncertainties in High Plains Supercells Using Radiosondes and Radars

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (11) ◽  
pp. 4435-4452
Author(s):  
Peter J. Marinescu ◽  
Patrick C. Kennedy ◽  
Michael M. Bell ◽  
Aryeh J. Drager ◽  
Leah D. Grant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Convective Cloud ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
High Plains ◽  
State University ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Storm Dynamics ◽  
In Situ Observations

AbstractObservations of the air vertical velocities (wair) in supercell updrafts are presented, including uncertainty estimates, from radiosonde GPS measurements in two supercells. These in situ observations were collected during the Colorado State University Convective Cloud Outflows and Updrafts Experiment (C3LOUD-Ex) in moderately unstable environments in Colorado and Wyoming. Based on the radiosonde accelerations, instances when the radiosonde balloon likely bursts within the updraft are determined, and adjustments are made to account for the subsequent reduction in radiosonde buoyancy. Before and after these adjustments, the maximum estimated wair values are 36.2 and 49.9 m s−1, respectively. Radar data are used to contextualize the in situ observations and suggest that most of the radiosonde observations were located several kilometers away from the most intense vertical motions. Therefore, the radiosonde-based wair values presented likely underestimate the maximum values within these storms due to these sampling biases, as well as the impacts from hydrometeors, which are not accounted for. When possible, radiosonde-based wair values were compared to estimates from dual-Doppler methods and from parcel theory. When the radiosondes observed their highest wair values, dual-Doppler methods generally produced 15–20 m s−1 lower wair for the same location, which could be related to the differences in the observing systems’ resolutions. In situ observations within supercell updrafts, which have been limited in recent decades, can be used to improve our understanding and modeling of storm dynamics. This study provides new in situ observations, as well as methods and lessons that could be applied to future field campaigns.

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