Forecasting groundwater pumping cap in an overexploited Mediterranean aquifer using seasonal meteorological forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service

The Requena-Utiel aquifer in the Jucar River Basin (Mediterranean Spain) is mined mainly for the irrigation of vineyards (Denominaci&#243;n de Origen Utiel-Requena), and some olive and nut trees. It has been recently declared as in bad quantitative status by the Jucar River Basin Agency (Confederaci&#243;n Hidrogr&#225;fica del J&#250;car, CHJ). Among the measures taken to control water abstraction, a pumping cap for the irrigation season (May-September) has been agreed between the CHJ and the groundwater user association. This limit depends on the cumulative precipitation from December to April (classifying the year in wet, normal or dry), although that irrigation amount is in any case below the crop requirements. Consequently, predicting the type of year beforehand is a piece of valuable information for the water users in order to optimally schedule groundwater pumping and foresee crop production.This study analyses the ability of seasonal meteorological forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to anticipate the type of year in the agricultural areas of the Requena Utiel aquifer considering different periods ahead. The following seasonal forecasting services were used: ECMWF SEAS5, UKMO GloSEA5, M&#233;t&#233;oFrance System, DWD GCFS, and CMCC SPS. Seasonal forecasts issued between November 1st and April 1st were downloaded and post-processed using a month-dependent linear scaling against historical records. Once post-processed, the skill of seasonal forecasts to predict the type of year has been evaluated for the 1995-2015 period, depending on the anticipation time.Results show that, on a broader view, the type of year cannot be safely anticipated before April 1st. However, we have identified that, for particular types of year and forecasting services, the anticipation time can be enlarged (e.g predicting wet years in December). Furthermore, we have found a direct relationship between the strength of the signal (number of ensemble members that predict the same type of year) and the forecasting skill, meaning that seasonal forecasts showing a strong signal, if properly identified, could offer valuable information months in advance to the beginning of the irrigation season.Acknowledgements:This study has received funding from the eGROUNDWATER project (GA n. 1921), part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union&#8217;s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. It has been also supported by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain and with EU FEDER funds.

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ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE-INDUCED RISK IN SUB-SAHARAN RAINFED AGRICULTURE: LESSONS LEARNED

Experimental Agriculture ◽

10.1017/s001447971100010x ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 395-410 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

R. COE ◽

R. D. STERN

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Agricultural Research ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Central Africa ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

List Type ◽

Climate Data ◽

Seasonal Forecasts ◽

Pastoral Systems

SUMMARYA defining characteristic of many rainfed tropical agricultural systems is their vulnerability to weather variability. There is now increased attention paid to climate-agriculture links as the world is focused on climate change. This has shown the need for increased understanding of current and future climate and the links to agricultural investment decisions, particularly farmers’ decisions, and that integrated strategies for coping with climate change need to start with managing current climate risk. Research, largely from an Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) project to demonstrate the value of such increased understanding, is presented in this issue of the journal. Key lessons from this research are as follows: 1.Statistical methods of analysis of historical climate data that are relevant to agriculture need not be complex. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming (such as the date of the start of a rainy season) rather than simple standard measures (such as annual total rainfall).2.Analysis requires access to relevant data, tools and expertise. Daily climate data, both current and historical, are primarily the responsibility of national meteorological services (NMS). Accessing such data, particularly daily data, is not always easy. Including staff from the NMS as research partners, not just data providers, can reduce this problem.3.Farmers’ perceptions of climate variation, risk and change are complex. They are keenly aware of variability, but there is evidence that they over-estimate risks of negative impacts and thereby fail to make use of good conditions when they occur. There is also evidence that multiple causes of changes are confounded, so farmers who observe decreasing crop production may not be distinguishing between rainfall change and declining soil fertility or other conditions. Hence any project working with farmers’ coping and adaptation to climate must also have access to analyses of observed climate data from nearby recording stations.4.Mechanisms for reducing and coping with risks are exemplified in pastoral systems that exist in the most variable environments. New approaches to risk transfer, such as index-based insurance, show potential for positive impact.5.Skilful seasonal forecasts, which give a better indication of the coming season than a simple average, would help farmers take decisions for the coming cropping season. Increasing meteorological knowledge shows that such forecasting is possible for parts of Africa. There are institutional barriers to farmers accessing and using the forecast information. Furthermore, the skill of the forecasts is currently limited so that there are maybe still only a few rational choices for a farmer to make on the basis of a forecast.With the justified current interest in climate and agriculture, all stakeholders including researchers, data providers, policy developers and extension workers will need to work together to ensure that interventions are based on a correct interpretation of a valid analysis of relevant data.

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Climate change impact on water resources of the Desna river basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6327 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Valeriy Osypov ◽

Natalia Osadcha ◽

Volodimir Osadchyi ◽

Oleh Speka

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Soil Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Crop Production ◽

Continental Scale ◽

Change Impact ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

A river basin management plan has to consider climate change impact because global warming influences the water cycle explicitly. For Ukraine, only continental-scale studies or(and) global hydrological models reflect the climate change impact on water resources. Such resolution is insufficient to develop confident adaptation strategies.This study aims to assess changes in the river runoff, water flow formation, and soil water of the Desna river basin under future climate. The Desna supply Kyiv, Ukraine&#8217;s capital, with fresh water. Moreover, soil water capacity across the basin is critical for crop production, the leading sector of the region.The framework consists of the process-based ecohydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution (~12 km) regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till the end of the XXI century. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated on water discharge from 12 gauges across the basin, then it was driven by each climate model to achieve a range of possible future scenarios. This approach better represents the hydrological processes and achieves more confident results than in previous studies.Seven of eight models project warmer and wetter climate in the near future (2021-2050), and all models project the same in the far future (2071-2100). According to the ensemble mean, the air temperature will increase by 1.1&#176;C under RCP4.5 and 1.2&#176;C under RCP8.5 in the near future, and by 2.2&#176;C under RCP4.5 and 4.2&#176;C under RCP8.5 in the far future. Precipitation surplus will reach 5% (range from -6% to 16%) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near future, and 8% (from 2% to 17%) under RCP4.5 and 14% (from 3% to 23%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. The discharge will likely increase (mean signal 6-8% in the near future and 10-14% in the far future) mostly due to higher groundwater inflow.Intra-annual changes could be very unfavorable for plant growth because of lower soil water content and higher temperature stress during the vegetation period. The models agree about precipitation surplus during the cold period but, in summer, all directions of change are almost equally possible.We consider that, among other vulnerabilities of the Desna basin, the water stress for crops will be the main issue because of the high dependence of the economy on crop production. Attention should also be paid to forest fires, eutrophication, and the concentration of organic substances in the stream

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Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.029 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 442 ◽

pp. 405-419 ◽

Cited By ~ 102

Author(s):

Alireza Gohari ◽

Saeid Eslamian ◽

Jahangir Abedi-Koupaei ◽

Alireza Massah Bavani ◽

Dingbao Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climate Change Impacts

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Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources in the Danube River Basin and Possibilities to Adapt – The Way to an Adaptation Strategy and its Update

Journal of Environmental Geography ◽

10.2478/jengeo-2018-0009 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (3-4) ◽

pp. 13-24

Author(s):

Roswitha Stolz ◽

Monika Prasch ◽

Michael Weber ◽

Franziska Koch ◽

Ruth Weidinger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Danube River ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Precipitation Trend ◽

The European Union ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Danube River ◽

Danube River Basin

Abstract As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2013, climate change will have significant impacts on all water sectors. Since water is essential for live, culture, economy and ecosystems, climate change adaptation is crucial. Therefore, a legal and political framework was established by the commissions of the European Union, the United Nations and on national levels. For the Danube River Basin (DRB), the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River got the mandate to develop an adaptation strategy in 2012 and to update this strategy in 2018. The natural science basis on which the adaptation strategy and its update are based on are two studies, conducted in 2011/2012 and updated and revised in 2017/18. Numerous documents from actual research and development projects and studies dealing with climate change and its impacts on water related issues were analysed in detail and the results summarised. It is agreed that temperature will increase basin-wide. The precipitation trend shows a strong northwest-southeast gradient and significant changes in seasonality. Runoff patterns will change and extreme weather events will intensify. However, the magnitude of the results shows a strong spatial variability due to the heterogeneity of the DRB., It is assessed that these changes will have mostly negative impacts on all water related sectors. Based on the scientific findings an approach for an improved basin-wide strategy on adaptation to climate change is developed. It includes guiding principles and five categories of adaptation measures targeting different objectives.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in West Africa: An Assessment for the Oueme River Basin in Benin

Water Resources Management ◽

10.1007/s11269-011-9931-x ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 26 (2) ◽

pp. 553-579 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

B. G. J. S. Sonneveld ◽

M. A. Keyzer ◽

P. Adegbola ◽

S. Pande

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

West Africa ◽

River Basin ◽

Crop Production ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-11-643-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 643-657 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

S. Quiroga ◽

L. Garrote ◽

A. Iglesias ◽

Z. Fernández-Haddad ◽

J. Schlickenrieder ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Crop Production ◽

Economic Value ◽

River Basin Management ◽

Accurate Information ◽

River Basin Management Plans ◽

Management Plans ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract. Drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity due to climate change, thereby affecting crop production. Information about drought is valuable for river basin authorities and the farmers affected by their decisions. The economic value of this information and the resulting decisions are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and to the information providers. Understanding the dynamics of extreme events, including droughts, in future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean is being improved continuously. This paper analyses the economic value of information on drought events taking into account the risk aversion of water managers. We consider the effects of drought management plans on rice production in the Ebro river basin. This enables us to compute the willingness to compensate the river basin authority for more accurate information allowing for better decision-making. If runoff is reduced, river basin planners can consider the reduction of water allocation for irrigation in order to eliminate the risk of water scarcity. Alternately, river basin planners may decide to maintain water allocation and accept a reduction of water supply reliability, leaving farmers exposed to drought events. These two alternatives offer different risk levels for crop production and farmers' incomes which determine the value of this information to the river basin authority. The information is relevant for the revision of River Basin Management Plans of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) within the context of climate change.

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