EVALUATION OF IMPACT ON WATER USE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOLO RIVER BASIN, INDONESIA

Author(s):  
Hitoshi UMINO ◽  
Maksym GUSYEV ◽  
Akira HASEGAWA ◽  
Yoji CHIDA
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Peter Kishiwa ◽  
Joel Nobert ◽  
Victor Kongo ◽  
Preksedis Ndomba

Abstract. This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16–18 % in 2050s relative to 1980–1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 ∘C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.


Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiwan Lee ◽  
Chunggil Jung ◽  
Sehoon Kim ◽  
Seongjoon Kim

This study was to evaluate the groundwater-level behavior in Geum River Basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea with HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios and future groundwater use data using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Before evaluating future groundwater behavior, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the daily inflows and storage of two dams (DCD and YDD) in the basin for 11 years (2005–2015), the daily groundwater-level observation data at five locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, and BYBY), and the daily inflow and storage of three weir locations (SJW, GJW, and BJW) for three years and five months (August 2012 to December 2015). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of two dam inflows was 0.55–0.70 and 0.67–0.75. For the inflows of the three weirs, NSE was 0.57–0.77 and R2 was 0.62–0.81. The average R2 value for the groundwater levels of the five locations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. After verifying the SWAT for hydrologic components, we evaluated the behavior of future groundwater levels by future climate change scenarios and estimated future ground water use by Korean water vision 2020 based on ground water use monitoring data. The future groundwater-level decreased by −13.0, −5.0, and −9.0 cm at three upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, and BEMR) among the five groundwater-level observation locations and increased by +3.0 and +1.0 cm at two downstream locations (CASS and BYBY). The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge, which was dependent on the seasonal and spatial precipitations in the basin.


Author(s):  
Farzad Emami ◽  
Manfred Koch

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.


2020 ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
D.KH. DOMULLODZHANOV ◽  
◽  
R. RAHMATILLOEV

The article presents the results of the field studies and observations that carried out on the territory of the hilly, low-mountain and foothill agro landscapes of the Kyzylsu-yuzhnaya (Kyzylsu-Southern) River Basin of Tajikistan. Taking into account the high-altitude location of households and the amount of precipitation in the river basin, the annual volumes of water accumulated with the use of low-cost systems of collection and storage of precipitation have been clarified. The amount of water accumulated in the precipitation collection and storage systems has been established, the volume of water used for communal and domestic needs,the watering of livestock and the amount of water that can be used to irrigate crops in the have been determined. Possible areas of irrigation of household plots depending on the different availability of precipitation have been determined. It has been established that in wet years (with precipitation of about 10%) the amount of water collected using drip irrigation will be sufficient for irrigation of 0.13 hectares, and in dry years (with 90% of precipitation) it will be possible to irrigate only 0.03 ha of the household plot. On the basis of the basin, the total area of irrigation in wet years can be 4497 ha, and in dry years only 1087 ha. Taking into account the forecasts of population growth by 2030 and an increase in the number of households, the total area of irrigation of farmlands in wet years may reach 5703 hectares,and in dry years – 1379 hectares. Growing crops on household plots under irrigation contributes to a significant increase in land productivity and increases the efficiency of water use of the Kyzylsu-yuzhnaya basin.


2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Shandas ◽  
Meenakshi Rao ◽  
Moriah McSharry McGrath

Social and behavioral research is crucial for securing environmental sustainability and improving human living environments. Although the majority of people now live in urban areas, we have limited empirical evidence of the anticipated behavioral response to climate change. Using empirical data on daily household residential water use and temperature, our research examines the implications of future climate conditions on water conservation behavior in 501 households within the Portland (OR) metropolitan region. We ask whether and how much change in ambient temperatures impact residential household water use, while controlling for taxlot characteristics. Based on our results, we develop a spatially explicit description about the changes in future water use for the study region using a downscaled future climate scenario. The results suggest that behavioral responses are mediated by an interaction of household structural attributes, and magnitude and temporal variability of weather parameters. These findings have implications for the way natural resource managers and planning bureaus prepare for and adapt to future consequences of climate change.


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