scholarly journals ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE-INDUCED RISK IN SUB-SAHARAN RAINFED AGRICULTURE: LESSONS LEARNED

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. COE ◽  
R. D. STERN

SUMMARYA defining characteristic of many rainfed tropical agricultural systems is their vulnerability to weather variability. There is now increased attention paid to climate-agriculture links as the world is focused on climate change. This has shown the need for increased understanding of current and future climate and the links to agricultural investment decisions, particularly farmers’ decisions, and that integrated strategies for coping with climate change need to start with managing current climate risk. Research, largely from an Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) project to demonstrate the value of such increased understanding, is presented in this issue of the journal. Key lessons from this research are as follows: 1.Statistical methods of analysis of historical climate data that are relevant to agriculture need not be complex. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming (such as the date of the start of a rainy season) rather than simple standard measures (such as annual total rainfall).2.Analysis requires access to relevant data, tools and expertise. Daily climate data, both current and historical, are primarily the responsibility of national meteorological services (NMS). Accessing such data, particularly daily data, is not always easy. Including staff from the NMS as research partners, not just data providers, can reduce this problem.3.Farmers’ perceptions of climate variation, risk and change are complex. They are keenly aware of variability, but there is evidence that they over-estimate risks of negative impacts and thereby fail to make use of good conditions when they occur. There is also evidence that multiple causes of changes are confounded, so farmers who observe decreasing crop production may not be distinguishing between rainfall change and declining soil fertility or other conditions. Hence any project working with farmers’ coping and adaptation to climate must also have access to analyses of observed climate data from nearby recording stations.4.Mechanisms for reducing and coping with risks are exemplified in pastoral systems that exist in the most variable environments. New approaches to risk transfer, such as index-based insurance, show potential for positive impact.5.Skilful seasonal forecasts, which give a better indication of the coming season than a simple average, would help farmers take decisions for the coming cropping season. Increasing meteorological knowledge shows that such forecasting is possible for parts of Africa. There are institutional barriers to farmers accessing and using the forecast information. Furthermore, the skill of the forecasts is currently limited so that there are maybe still only a few rational choices for a farmer to make on the basis of a forecast.With the justified current interest in climate and agriculture, all stakeholders including researchers, data providers, policy developers and extension workers will need to work together to ensure that interventions are based on a correct interpretation of a valid analysis of relevant data.

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (12) ◽  
pp. eaat4343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea ◽  
Erwin Knippenberg ◽  
Robert G. Chambers

A pressing question for climate change adaptation is whether ongoing transformations of the agricultural sector affect its ability to cope with climatic variations. We examine this question in the United States, where major increases in productivity have fueled most of agricultural production growth over the past half-century. To quantify the evolving climate sensitivity of the sector and identify its sources, we combine state-level measures of agricultural productivity with detailed climate data for 1960–2004. We find that agriculture is growing more sensitive to climate in Midwestern states for two distinct but compounding reasons: a rising climatic sensitivity of nonirrigated cereal and oilseed crops and a growing specialization in crop production. In contrast, other regions specialize in less climate-sensitive production such as irrigated specialty crops or livestock. Results suggest that reducing vulnerability to climate change should consider the role of policies in inducing regional specialization.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Anny Mulyani ◽  
Mamat Haris Suwanda

<p><strong>Abstrak</strong>. Wilayah Nusa Tenggara mempunyai lahan kering beriklim kering seluas 4,9 juta ha dengan curah hujan &lt;2.000 mm/tahun dan bulan kering 5-10 bulan, bersolum tanah dangkal dan berbatu. Sebagian lahan tersebut sudah dimanfaatkan menjadi lahan pertanian terutama jagung, akibatnya produktivitas tanaman jagung rendah dibandingkan potensi genetiknya, yaitu sekitar 2,5 ton/ha di NTT dan 5,3 ton/ha di NTB dibanding dengan potensi genetiknya 9 ton/ha. Sejak tahun 2010-2015, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian telah mengembangkan inovasi teknologi pengelolaan lahan kering beriklim kering dan berbatu di beberapa kabupaten di NTT dan NTB, meliputi penyediaan sumberdaya air (dam parit, embung, tampung renteng mini, sumur dangkal), pengenalan varietas unggul baru dan budidaya tanaman pangan. Pembelajaran yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa penyediaan air menjadi titik ungkit untuk meningkatkan indeks pertanaman dan produktivitas tanaman. Inovasi teknologi yang dibutuhkan petani adalah, mudah diterapkan, biaya murah, dan efisien tenaga kerja mendorong berlanjutnya teknologi tersebut meskipun progam tersebut telah selesai. Pada tahun 2014-2018 telah dilaksanakan kegiatan pertanian konservasi melalui dana hibah barang dan jasa yang dikelola FAO. Prinsip dasar pertanian konservasi terdiri atas 3 pilar, yaitu olah tanah terbatas berupa lubang olah permanen, penutupan permukaan tanah, rotasi/tumpangsari. Lubang tanam tersebut diberi pupuk kandang atau kompos, dan ditanami jagung pada 4 penjuru lubang, dan ditumpangsarikan dengan berbagai kacang-kacangan atau tanaman merambat seperti labu kuning yang berfungsi sebagai penutup tanah dan penghasilan tambahan dari kacang-kacangan berumur pendek. Berdasarkan hasil analisis tanah sebelum dan sesudah implementasi pertanian konservasi menunjukkan bahwa pertanian konservasi dapat meningkatkan kesuburan tanah, retensi air dan meningkatkan produksi tanaman jagung.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Abstract</strong>. The Nusa Tenggara region has upland area with dry climate of 4.9 million ha, less than 2,000 mm annual rainfall, 5-10 dry months, shallow and rocky soils. Some of the land has been used for agricultural development, especially corn, resulting in low corn productivity of around 2.5 tons / ha in NTT and 5.3 tons / ha in NTB as compared to it genetic potential 9 tons /ha. Since 2010-2015, Indonesian Agency of Agricultural Research and Development has developed innovation of soil management technology for upland with dry climates and and rocky soils in several districts in NTT and NTB. The innovation includes the provision of water resources (dam trenches, reservoirs, mini catchments, and shallow wells), introduction of new high yielding varieties and cultivation crops. The lessons learned show that water supply is the initial point to increase cropping index and crop productivity. Technological innovations needed by farmers are easy to implement, low cost, and labor efficient thereby encourage the continuation of the technology even though the program has been completed. In 2014-2018, conservation agriculture activities were carried out through grants of goods and services managed by Food Agriculture Organization (FAO). The basic principle of conservation agriculture consists of 3 pillars, namely limited tillage in the form of permanent planting holes, cover crops, rotation / intercropping. The planting hole is given manure or compost, and planted with corn in 4 corners, and intercropped with various nuts or vines such as pumpkin that serves as a soil cover and additional income from short-lived beans. Based on the results of soil analysis before and after the implementation of conservation agriculture, it shows that conservation agriculture can increase soil fertility, water retention and increase corn crop production.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adria Rubio-Martin ◽  
Hector Macian-Sorribes ◽  
Esther Lopez-Perez ◽  
Alberto Garcia-Prats ◽  
Juan Manzano-Juarez ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;The Requena-Utiel aquifer in the Jucar River Basin (Mediterranean Spain) is mined mainly for the irrigation of vineyards (Denominaci&amp;#243;n de Origen Utiel-Requena), and some olive and nut trees. It has been recently declared as in bad quantitative status by the Jucar River Basin Agency (Confederaci&amp;#243;n Hidrogr&amp;#225;fica del J&amp;#250;car, CHJ). Among the measures taken to control water abstraction, a pumping cap for the irrigation season (May-September) has been agreed between the CHJ and the groundwater user association. This limit depends on the cumulative precipitation from December to April (classifying the year in wet, normal or dry), although that irrigation amount is in any case below the crop requirements. Consequently, predicting the type of year beforehand is a piece of valuable information for the water users in order to optimally schedule groundwater pumping and foresee crop production.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study analyses the ability of seasonal meteorological forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to anticipate the type of year in the agricultural areas of the Requena Utiel aquifer considering different periods ahead. The following seasonal forecasting services were used: ECMWF SEAS5, UKMO GloSEA5, M&amp;#233;t&amp;#233;oFrance System, DWD GCFS, and CMCC SPS. Seasonal forecasts issued between November 1&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; and April 1&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; were downloaded and post-processed using a month-dependent linear scaling against historical records. Once post-processed, the skill of seasonal forecasts to predict the type of year has been evaluated for the 1995-2015 period, depending on the anticipation time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Results show that, on a broader view, the type of year cannot be safely anticipated before April 1&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt;. However, we have identified that, for particular types of year and forecasting services, the anticipation time can be enlarged (e.g predicting wet years in December). Furthermore, we have found a direct relationship between the strength of the signal (number of ensemble members that predict the same type of year) and the forecasting skill, meaning that seasonal forecasts showing a strong signal, if properly identified, could offer valuable information months in advance to the beginning of the irrigation season.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Acknowledgements:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study has received funding from the eGROUNDWATER project (GA n. 1921), part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union&amp;#8217;s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. It has been also supported by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain and with EU FEDER funds.&lt;/p&gt;


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoying Wang

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climatic variation around current normals on crop yields and explore corresponding adaptation effects in Arizona, using a unique panel data. The empirical results suggest that both fertilizer use and irrigation are important adaptations to climate change in crop production. Fertilizer use has a positive impact on crop yields as expected. When accounting for irrigation and its interaction with temperature, a moderate temperature increase tends to be beneficial to both cotton and hay yields. The empirical model in this paper features with two methodological innovations, identifying the effects of temperature change conditional on adaptations and incorporating potential spatial spillover effects among input use.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Kai Huang ◽  
Phatchaya Piriyathanasak ◽  
Witsanu Attavanich ◽  
Chengcheng J. Fei ◽  
Doo Bong Han ◽  
...  

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between rice yields, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We integrate gridded climate data in the growing seasons and Asian rice yield data reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization with free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experimental data. Using those data, we estimate prediction models of rice yields that evolve over time and decompose effects of climate, CO2, and technological progress. The results show that atmospheric CO2 has significantly increased rice yields, with the contribution accounting for 29% to 33% of the observed yield growth. The results also reveal that increases in temperature decrease rice yields in parts of Asia, implying that both CO2 mitigation and climate change are yield growth depressing factors. The finding suggests a potential need for more agricultural research and development investment to offset CO2 mitigation and climate change effects.


1970 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad H Mondal

Crop agriculture in Bangladesh is constrained every year by challenges, such as a) Loss of Arabie Land, b) Population Growth, c) Climate Changes, d) Inadequate Management Practices, e) Unfair Price of Produces, and f) Insufficient Investment in Research. In Bangladesh, about 80,000 ha of arable land are going out of production every year. The loss is alarming and needs to be addressed immediately. The land use policy of the government should be updated and implemented immediately to stop further loss of arable land. Another problem to agriculture is the increase in the growth of population. The twin problem of arable land loss and population growth needs to be addressed simultaneously to ensure sustainable crop production. Country's crop production is also affected frequently by flood, drought, and salinity. Varieties/technologies tolerant to these natural hazards need to be developed. Renewable energy, reduction in the use of fossil fuels, and afforestation are recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. To sustain crop production, chemical fertilizers must be integrated with organic manure and costly non-urea fertilizers should continue to be subsidized. Incidence of pests and diseases has lately become severe due to climate change impacts. Therefore, more varieties resistant to the pests should be evolved. Small and marginal farmers of Bangladesh have limited access to institutional credit. They are not eligible for microcredit of NGOs either. Establishment of a new institution/foundation in line with PKSF is recommended to meet their needs. These farmers do not have farmers' associations or cooperatives to bargain for fair price of their produces. Government might encourage establishment of farmers' cooperatives to ensure fair price of their produces. To make such cooperatives successful, top-down approach by the influentials must be avoided. Investment in agricultural research should as well be raised to at least 2% of GDP to help generate technologies to cope with climate change hazards and disseminate such technologies at farmer's level. Keywords: Crop agriculture; challenges; opportunities. DOI: 10.3329/bjar.v35i2.5886Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 35(2) : 235-245, June 2010


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blas Lajarín ◽  
Nieves Peña ◽  
Jorge Paz ◽  
Edward P. Morris ◽  
Greta C. Vega ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a&amp;#160;Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)&amp;#160;contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Espa&amp;#241;ola de Cambio Clim&amp;#225;tico.&lt;/p&gt;


Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 457
Author(s):  
Michalia Sakellariou ◽  
Basil E. Psiloglou ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos ◽  
Photini V. Mylona

Agriculture terraces constitute a significant element of the Mediterranean landscape, enabling crop production on steep slopes while protecting land from desertification. Despite their ecological and historical value, terrace cultivation is threatened by climate change leading to abandonment and further marginalization of arable land imposing serious environmental and community hazards. Re-cultivation of terraced landscapes could be an alternative strategy to mitigate the climate change impacts in areas of high vulnerability encouraging a sustainable agroecosystem to ensure food security, rural development and restrain land desertification. The article presents the case study of abandoned terrace re-cultivation in the Aegean Island of Andros, using a climate smart agriculture system, which involves the establishment of an extensive meteorological network to monitor the local climate and hydrometeorological forecasting. Along with terrace site mapping and soil profiling the perfomance of cereal and legume crops was assessed in a low-input agriculture system. The implementation of a land stewardship (LS) plan was indispensable to overcome mainly land fragmentation issues and to transfer know-how. It was found that climate data are key drivers for crop cultivation and production in the island rainfed farming system. The study revealed that terrace soil quality could be improved through cultivation to support food safety and stall land degradation. In line with global studies this research suggest that cultivation of marginal terraced land is timely through a climate smart agriculture system as a holistic approach to improve land quality and serve as means to combat climate change impacts. The study also discusses land management and policy approaches to address the issue of agricultural land abandonment and the benefits gained through cultivation to the local community, economy and environment protection and sustainability.


Author(s):  
Abdelrahman S. Zaky ◽  
Claudia E. Carter ◽  
Fanran Meng ◽  
Christopher E. French

Bioethanol has many environmental and practical benefits as a transportation fuel. It is one of the best alternatives to replace fossil fuels due to its liquid nature which is similar to petrol and diesel fuels traditionally used in transportation. In addition, bioethanol production technology has the capacity for negative carbon emissions which is vital for solving the current global warming dilemma. However, conventional bioethanol production takes place based on an inland site and relies on freshwater and edible crops (or land suitable for edible crop production) for production, which has led to the food vs fuel debate. Establishing a coastal marine biorefinery (CMB) system for bioethanol production that is based on coastal sites and relies on marine resources (seawater, marine biomass and marine yeast) could be the ultimate solution. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the environmental impact of using seawater for bioethanol production at coastal locations as a step towards the evaluation of a CMB system. Hence, a life cycle assessment for bioethanol production was conducted using the proposed scenario named Coastal-Seawater and compared to the conventional scenario, named Inland-Freshwater (IF). The impact of each scenario in relation to climate change, water depletion, land use and fossil depletion was studied for comparison. The coastal-seawater scenario demonstrated an improvement upon the conventional scenario in all the selected impact categories. In particular, the use of seawater in the process had a significant effect on water depletion showing an impact reduction of 31.2%. Furthermore, reductions are demonstrated in natural land transformation, climate change and fossil depletion of 5.5%, 3.5% and 4.2% respectively. This indicates the positive impact of using seawater and coastal locations for bioethanol production and encourages research to investigate the CMB system.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angel Alos ◽  
Baudouin Raoult ◽  
James Varndell ◽  
Edward Comyn-Platt ◽  
Chiara Cagnazzo

&lt;p&gt;The Climate (CDS) and Atmosphere (ADS) Data Stores are instances of a common &amp;#160;underlaying infrastructure historically referred as CDS. Data Stores supports the implementation of the Climate Change (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) Services under the auspices of Copernicus, the European Union's Earth Observation Programme and entrusted for implementation to the&amp;#160;European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). &amp;#160;Both are highly visible web-based services currently gathering a vibrant community of users, including policymakers, businesses and scientists, helping them to investigate and tackle climate change and atmosphere monitoring challenges.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;CDS infrastructure is designed as a distributed system and an open framework which provides web-based and API-based retrieve facilities to a wide and expanding catalogue of datasets, applications and other digital information. It also provides a development platform (Toolbox) which allow the creation of web-based applications operating on the datasets and products available in the catalogue. These applications are subsequently made available to end-users. Infrastructure is hosted in a dedicated in-house Cloud environment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Having grown at steady rate in terms of users, functionality, workload and available content since their official opening the infrastructure is now looking forward to be further improved in the coming phase of Copernicus driven by the following objectives:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;capitalize operational experience, user feedback, lessons learned and know-how from current Data Stores to move into a modern, more reliable and interoperable platform;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;uptake modernised technologies and standards which have evolved since the initial implementation of the current infrastructure;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;evolve the system architecture as to take full advantage of cloud computing technologies and underlaying cloud infrastructure as containerization.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;embrace open source scientific software and ensure compatibility with state-of-the-art solutions such as machine learning, data cubes and interactive notebooks;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;strengthen synergies with DIAS WEkEO platform and improve the capacity, efficiency, interoperability and reliability of shared interfaces and resources;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;provide improved and flexible access to data and toolbox capabilities from multiple development platforms;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;One of the components at the core of this reengineering exercise will be the Toolbox. &amp;#160;The foundation of this future toolbox implementation will be a suite of quality-assured, open source Python libraries for performing scientific analysis and visualisation, ensuring compatibility with a broader range of Python tools already familiar to the scientific community. Implementation will support two different functioning modes. In one hand a toolbox integrated&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;within the &lt;em&gt;Data Store &lt;/em&gt;web portal, providing fast and efficient access to catalogued data by taking full advantage of available computation resources and functionalities provided by the in-house Cloud infrastructure. An in the other a standalone version which will allow users to install and run toolbox software locally.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Platforms mentioned above can be accessed here: Climate Data Store (http://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/), Atmosphere Data Store (http://ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/ ), DIAS WEkEO (https://www.wekeo.eu/).&lt;/p&gt;


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