scholarly journals Potential vorticity dynamics of life cycles of blocked weather regimes in the Euro-Atlantic region: A diagnostic framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seraphine Hauser ◽  
Christian M. Grams ◽  
Michael Riemer ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Franziska Teubler
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Medium Range

<p>Quasi-stationary, persistent, and recurrent states of the large-scale extratropical circulation, so-called weather regimes, characterize the atmospheric variability on sub-seasonal timescales of several days to a few weeks. Weather regimes featuring a blocking anticyclone are of particular interest due to their long lifetime and potential for high-impact weather. However, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and climate models struggle to correctly represent blocking life cycles, which results in large forecast errors at the medium-range to sub-seasonal timescale. Despite progress in recent years, we are still lacking a process-based conceptual understanding of blocked regime dynamics, which hinders a better representation of blocks in numerical models. In particular the relative contributions of dry and moist processes in the onset and maintenance of a block remain unclear.</p><p>Here we aim to revisit the dynamics of blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region. To this end we investigate the life cycles of blocked weather regimes from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective in ERA5 reanalysis data (from 1979 to present) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We develop a diagnostic PV framework that allows the tracking of negative PV anomalies associated with blocked weather regimes. Complemented by piecewise PV-tendencies - separated into advective and diabatic PV tendencies - we are able to disentangle different physical processes affecting the amplitude evolution of negative PV anomalies associated with blocked regimes. Most importantly, this approach newly enables us to distinguish between the roles of dry and moist dynamics in the initiation and maintenance of blocked weather regimes in a common framework. A first application demonstrates the functionality of the developed PV framework and corroborates the importance of moist-diabatic processes in the initiation and maintenance of a block in a regime life cycle. </p>

The role of cloud diabatic processes in the life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian M. Grams
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Diabatic Processes

<p>Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, persistent, and recurrent states of the large-scale extratropical circulation. In the Atlantic-European region these explain most of the atmospheric variability on sub-seasonal time scales. However, current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems struggle in correctly predicting weather regime life cycles. Latent heat release in ascending air streams injects air into the upper troposphere, which might ultimately result in blocking. Such diabatic outflow is often linked to warm conveyor belt (WCB) activity and has been shown to be involved in upscale error growth up to the regime scale. This study systematically investigates the role of diabatic outflow in the life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes.</p><p>An extended definition of 7 year-round Atlantic-European weather regimes from 37 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis is used. This is based on an EOF analysis and k-means clustering of normalized low-pass-filtered 500hPa geopotential height anomalies. Furthermore an objective regime life cycle is derived. The role of cloud-diabatic processes in European weather regimes is assessed based on time lag analysis of WCB activity at specific life cycle stages.</p><p>Results indicate that the period prior to regime onset is characterized by important changes in location and frequency of WCB occurrence. Most importantly, prior to the onset of regimes characterized by blocking, WCB activity increases significantly upstream of the incipient blocking even before blocking is detectable and persists over the blocked region later. This suggests that diabatic WCB outflow helps to establish and maintain blocked regimes. Thus it is important to correctly represent cloud-diabatic processes in NWP models across multiple scales in order to predict the large-scale circulation accurately. Ongoing work now systematically investigates the representation of WCB activity in current NWP systems and how this relates to the forecast skill for weather regimes.</p>

scholarly journals Deep learning for bias correction of MJO prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Kim ◽  
Y. G. Ham ◽  
Y. S. Joo ◽  
S. W. Son
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Potential Predictability

AbstractProducing accurate weather prediction beyond two weeks is an urgent challenge due to its ever-increasing socioeconomic value. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a planetary-scale tropical convective system, serves as a primary source of global subseasonal (i.e., targeting three to four weeks) predictability. During the past decades, operational forecasting systems have improved substantially, while the MJO prediction skill has not yet reached its potential predictability, partly due to the systematic errors caused by imperfect numerical models. Here, to improve the MJO prediction skill, we blend the state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts and observations with a Deep Learning bias correction method. With Deep Learning bias correction, multi-model forecast errors in MJO amplitude and phase averaged over four weeks are significantly reduced by about 90% and 77%, respectively. Most models show the greatest improvement for MJO events starting from the Indian Ocean and crossing the Maritime Continent.

A regime perspective on jet and blocking dynamics in CMIP6

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Dorrington
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Jet Structure

<p>Weather over the Euro-Atlantic region during winter is highly variable, with rich and chaotic internal atmospheric dynamics. In particular, the non-linear breaking of Rossby waves irreversibly mixes potential vorticity contours and so triggers shifts in the latitude of the eddy driven jet and establishes persistent anticyclonic blocking events. The concept of atmospheric regimes captures the tendency for blocks – and for the jet – to persist in a small number of preferred locations. Regimes then provide a non-linear basis through which model deficiencies, interdecadal variability and forced trends in the Euro-Atlantic circulation can be studied.</p><p>A drawback of past regime approaches is that they were unable to easily capture both the dynamics of the jet and of blocking anticyclones simultaneously. In this work we apply a recently developed regime framework, which is able to capture both these important aspects while reducing sampling variability, to the CMIP6 climate model ensemble. We analyse both the historical variability and biases of blocking and jet structure in this latest generation of climate models, and make new estimates of the anthropogenic forced trend over the coming century.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals A Theory of the Wind-Driven Beaufort Gyre Variability

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 3263-3278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgy E. Manucharyan ◽  
Michael A. Spall ◽  
Andrew F. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Equilibration Time ◽  
Ekman Pumping ◽  
Beaufort Gyre

AbstractThe halocline of the Beaufort Gyre varies significantly on interannual to decadal time scales, affecting the freshwater content (FWC) of the Arctic Ocean. This study explores the role of eddies in the Ekman-driven gyre variability. Following the transformed Eulerian-mean paradigm, the authors develop a theory that links the FWC variability to the stability of the large-scale gyre, defined as the inverse of its equilibration time. The theory, verified with eddy-resolving numerical simulations, demonstrates that the gyre stability is explicitly controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity. An accurate representation of the halocline dynamics requires the eddy diffusivity of 300 ± 200 m2 s−1, which is lower than what is used in most low-resolution climate models. In particular, on interannual and longer time scales the eddy fluxes and the Ekman pumping provide equally important contributions to the FWC variability. However, only large-scale Ekman pumping patterns can significantly alter the FWC, with spatially localized perturbations being an order of magnitude less efficient. Lastly, the authors introduce a novel FWC tendency diagnostic—the Gyre Index—that can be conveniently calculated using observations located only along the gyre boundaries. Its strong predictive capabilities, assessed in the eddy-resolving model forced by stochastic winds, suggest that the Gyre Index would be of use in interpreting FWC evolution in observations as well as in numerical models.

scholarly journals A parameterisation for the activation of cloud drops including the effects of semi-volatile organics

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2289-2302 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Connolly ◽  
D. O. Topping ◽  
F. Malavelle ◽  
G. McFiggans
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Geometric Standard Deviation ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Volatile Organics ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Aerosol Mass ◽  
Median Diameter

Abstract. We present a parameterisation of aerosol activation, including co-condensation of semi-volatile organics, for warm clouds that has applications in large-scale numerical models. The scheme is based on previously developed parameterisations that are in the literature, but has two main modifications. The first is that the total aerosol mass is modified by the condensation of organic vapours entering cloud base, whereas the second is that this addition of mass acts to modify the median diameter and the geometric standard deviation of the aerosol size distribution. It is found that the scheme is consistent with parcel model calculations of co-condensation under different regimes. Such a parameterisation may find use in evaluating important feedbacks in climate models.

Impact of Coupling with an Ice–Ocean Model on Global Medium-Range NWP Forecast Skill

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory C. Smith ◽  
Jean-Marc Bélanger ◽  
François Roy ◽  
Pierre Pellerin ◽  
Hal Ritchie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Impact

The importance of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean for forecasting on time scales of hours to weeks has been demonstrated for a range of physical processes. Here, the authors evaluate the impact of an interactive air–sea coupling between an operational global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and an ice–ocean forecasting system. This system was developed in the context of an experimental forecasting system that is now running operationally at the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. The authors show that the most significant impact is found to be associated with a decreased cyclone intensification, with a reduction in the tropical cyclone false alarm ratio. This results in a 15% decrease in standard deviation errors in geopotential height fields for 120-h forecasts in areas of active cyclone development, with commensurate benefits for wind, temperature, and humidity fields. Whereas impacts on surface fields are found locally in the vicinity of cyclone activity, large-scale improvements in the mid-to-upper troposphere are found with positive global implications for forecast skill. Moreover, coupling is found to produce fairly constant reductions in standard deviation error growth for forecast days 1–7 of about 5% over the northern extratropics in July and August and 15% over the tropics in January and February. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a statistically significant positive impact of coupling has been shown in an operational global medium-range deterministic numerical weather prediction framework.

scholarly journals The Interaction between Atmospheric Gravity Waves and Large-Scale Flows: An Efficient Description beyond the Nonacceleration Paradigm

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (12) ◽  
pp. 4833-4852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergely Bölöni ◽  
Bruno Ribstein ◽  
Jewgenija Muraschko ◽  
Christine Sgoff ◽  
Junhong Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Simple Wave ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Action Density ◽  
Total Energy Balance ◽  
Flow Interactions

Abstract With the aim of contributing to the improvement of subgrid-scale gravity wave (GW) parameterizations in numerical weather prediction and climate models, the comparative relevance in GW drag of direct GW–mean flow interactions and turbulent wave breakdown are investigated. Of equal interest is how well Wentzel–Kramer–Brillouin (WKB) theory can capture direct wave–mean flow interactions that are excluded by applying the steady-state approximation. WKB is implemented in a very efficient Lagrangian ray-tracing approach that considers wave-action density in phase space, thereby avoiding numerical instabilities due to caustics. It is supplemented by a simple wave-breaking scheme based on a static-instability saturation criterion. Idealized test cases of horizontally homogeneous GW packets are considered where wave-resolving large-eddy simulations (LESs) provide the reference. In all of these cases, the WKB simulations including direct GW–mean flow interactions already reproduce the LES data to a good accuracy without a wave-breaking scheme. The latter scheme provides a next-order correction that is useful for fully capturing the total energy balance between wave and mean flow. Moreover, a steady-state WKB implementation as used in present GW parameterizations where turbulence provides by the noninteraction paradigm, the only possibility to affect the mean flow, is much less able to yield reliable results. The GW energy is damped too strongly and induces an oversimplified mean flow. This argues for WKB approaches to GW parameterization that take wave transience into account.

scholarly journals A parameterisation for the activation of cloud drops including the effects of semi-volatile organics

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 14447-14475 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Connolly ◽  
D. O. Topping ◽  
F. Malavelle ◽  
G. McFiggans
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Geometric Standard Deviation ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Volatile Organics ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Aerosol Mass ◽  
Median Diameter

Abstract. We present a parameterisation of aerosol activation, including co-condensation of semi-volatile organics, for warm clouds that has applications in large-scale numerical models. The scheme is based on previously developed parameterisations that are in the literature, but has two main modifications. The first is that the total aerosol mass is modified by the condensation of organic vapours entering cloud-base, whereas the second is that this addition of mass acts to modify the median diameter and the geometric standard deviation of the aerosol size distribution. It is found that the scheme is consistent with parcel model calculations of co-condensation under different regimes. Such a parameterisation may find use in evaluating important feedbacks in climate models.

Atmospheric Blocking in Observation and Models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Tibaldi ◽  
Franco Molteni
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Amplitude ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Theoretical Studies ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Medium Range

The atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres is usually dominated by westerly winds and by planetary-scale and shorter-scale synoptic waves, moving mostly from west to east. A remarkable and frequent exception to this “usual” behavior is atmospheric blocking. Blocking occurs when the usual zonal flow is hindered by the establishment of a large-amplitude, quasi-stationary, high-pressure meridional circulation structure which “blocks” the flow of the westerlies and the progression of the atmospheric waves and disturbances embedded in them. Such blocking structures can have lifetimes varying from a few days to several weeks in the most extreme cases. Their presence can strongly affect the weather of large portions of the mid-latitudes, leading to the establishment of anomalous meteorological conditions. These can take the form of strong precipitation episodes or persistent anticyclonic regimes, leading in turn to floods, extreme cold spells, heat waves, or short-lived droughts. Even air quality can be strongly influenced by the establishment of atmospheric blocking, with episodes of high concentrations of low-level ozone in summer and of particulate matter and other air pollutants in winter, particularly in highly populated urban areas.Atmospheric blocking has the tendency to occur more often in winter and in certain longitudinal quadrants, notably the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, blocking episodes are generally less frequent, and the longitudinal localization is less pronounced than in the Northern Hemisphere.Blocking has aroused the interest of atmospheric scientists since the middle of the last century, with the pioneering observational works of Berggren, Bolin, Rossby, and Rex, and has become the subject of innumerable observational and theoretical studies. The purpose of such studies was originally to find a commonly accepted structural and phenomenological definition of atmospheric blocking. The investigations went on to study blocking climatology in terms of the geographical distribution of its frequency of occurrence and the associated seasonal and inter-annual variability. Well into the second half of the 20th century, a large number of theoretical dynamic works on blocking formation and maintenance started appearing in the literature. Such theoretical studies explored a wide range of possible dynamic mechanisms, including large-amplitude planetary-scale wave dynamics, including Rossby wave breaking, multiple equilibria circulation regimes, large-scale forcing of anticyclones by synoptic-scale eddies, finite-amplitude non-linear instability theory, and influence of sea surface temperature anomalies, to name but a few. However, to date no unique theoretical model of atmospheric blocking has been formulated that can account for all of its observational characteristics.When numerical, global short- and medium-range weather predictions started being produced operationally, and with the establishment, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, it quickly became of relevance to assess the capability of numerical models to predict blocking with the correct space-time characteristics (e.g., location, time of onset, life span, and decay). Early studies showed that models had difficulties in correctly representing blocking as well as in connection with their large systematic (mean) errors.Despite enormous improvements in the ability of numerical models to represent atmospheric dynamics, blocking remains a challenge for global weather prediction and climate simulation models. Such modeling deficiencies have negative consequences not only for our ability to represent the observed climate but also for the possibility of producing high-quality seasonal-to-decadal predictions. For such predictions, representing the correct space-time statistics of blocking occurrence is, especially for certain geographical areas, extremely important.

scholarly journals The Role of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in Forecast Busts within Global Weather Prediction Systems

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parsons ◽  
Lillo ◽  
Rattray ◽  
Bechtold ◽  
Rodwell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Prediction Systems

Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather predictionsystems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor.These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanationfor bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce theiroccurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe inassociation with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains.Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convectionat Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occurbetween long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossbywave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstreamas an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in somecases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organizeddeep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems thatproduce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream.

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