Loss of climatic suitability for durum wheat production

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrej Ceglar ◽  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Matteo Zampieri ◽  
Conxita Royo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Durum Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Durum wheat (<em>Triticum durum Desf.</em>) is a minor cereal crop of key importance for making pasta, couscous, puddings, bread, and many other traditional foods, due to its physical and chemical characteristics. Durum wheat currently represents around 8% of the total wheat crop production, with the main cultivation region being concentrated in few suitable areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, the North American Great Plains, and the former USSR. The global demand for high-quality food made of durum wheat has been increasing, which poses a challenge in the face of climate change. The major share of durum wheat production is currently located in semi-arid climates, where the risk of climate extremes such as drought and heat stress will likely substantially increase in the future. </p><p>We develop a global climate suitability model for durum wheat growth based on Support Vector Machines. We use CMIP6 data to assess the impact of climate change on future suitability for growing durum wheat globally. The total share of global arable land, climatically suitable for growing rainfed durum wheat, currently represents roughly 13% of the global arable land. However, climate change may decrease this suitable area of 19% by mid-century and of 48% by the end of the century, considering also the gain of suitable land areas, where durum wheat is not cultivated today. This net loss of suitable areas requires the development and the future adoption of effective and sustainable strategies to stabilize production and adapt the entire food supply chain.</p>

scholarly journals How will future climate depending agronomic management impact the yield risk of wheat cropping systems? A regional case study of Eastern Denmark

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
J. Macholdt ◽  
J. Glerup Gyldengren ◽  
E. Diamantopoulos ◽  
M. E. Styczen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Catch Crops ◽  
Agronomic Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
Management Factors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

scholarly journals Impact of High Temperature and Drought Stresses on Chickpea Production

Agronomy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viola Devasirvatham ◽  
Daniel Tan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Residual Soil ◽  
Germplasm Collections ◽  
Legume Crop ◽  
Terminal Drought ◽  
The Impact

Global climate change has caused severe crop yield losses worldwide and is endangering food security in the future. The impact of climate change on food production is high in Australia and globally. Climate change is projected to have a negative impact on crop production. Chickpea is a cool season legume crop mostly grown on residual soil moisture. High temperature and terminal drought are common in different regions of chickpea production with varying intensities and frequencies. Therefore, stable chickpea production will depend on the release of new cultivars with improved adaptation to major events such as drought and high temperature. Recent progress in chickpea breeding has increased the efficiency of assessing genetic diversity in germplasm collections. This review provides an overview of the integration of new approaches and tools into breeding programs and their impact on the development of stress tolerance in chickpea.

P6146Atmospheric front patterns and acute cardiovascular diseases, a new perspective in the cardiovascular threat of global climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Boussoussou ◽  
M Boussoussou ◽  
M Rakovics ◽  
L Entz ◽  
A Nemes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Parameters ◽  
Atmospheric Front ◽  
Warm Front ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background There is substantial evidence that the health threat of global climate change is real and it could be a medical emergency. The impact of climate change on health is mediated through atmospheric parameters which are direct environmental stressors on the human body and have a potential cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality effect. Acute cardiovascular diseases (ACVDs) are already major public health issues and in the future unfavourable atmospheric situations, such as increasingly volatile fronts and their negative effects can further increase this problem. Despite evidence about the importance of different atmospheric parameters on health outcomes, there have been few results for atmospheric front patterns' CV effects. Weather fronts are the most complex atmospheric phenomena therefore these atmospheric parameters might have the greatest influence on ACVDs. Purpose We aimed to explore the effects of atmospheric front patterns on ACVDs. Methods A time series Poisson-regression analysis was used to analyse 6499 ACVD hospital admissions, during a five-year period (2009–2013), in light of front patterns. Covariates were three-day (target day and the two previous days) front sequence patterns comprised of the five major front types (no front, warm front, occluded front, cold front, stationary front). Relative risk (RR) estimates for front effects were adjusted for seasonality. The relationship on all ACVDs combined and separately on patient groups by major CV risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, previous CV diseases) was examined. Results We found that in general, front patterns containing warm front days had a detrimental effect. A warm front, when followed by two days with no fronts present, increased RR by 46% (CI: 4–89%, p=0,015). Cold fronts however were protective. A no front – cold front – occluded front pattern corresponded to a 28% (CI: 8–49%, p=0,037) decrease in RR, with this pattern being present in 1.1% of all days of the study period. Out of the group specific results an occluded front, following days with no fronts present, showed to have the largest effect on hyperlipidaemic patients, increasing RR by 144% (CI: 51–295%, p<0.001). Conclusions This work provides both independent evidence of front patterns' CV effects and a novel tool to investigate and help the understanding of complex associations between atmospheric fronts and ACVDs. The importance of our findings is growing in the context that extreme atmospheric conditions and changes are likely to become more common in the future as a result of climate change. Medical meteorology may open up a new horizon and become an important field of preventive cardiology in the future. In conclusion, a better understanding of atmospheric front effects is of particular importance in order to help identify possible targets for future prevention strategies.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the influence of climate change on the productivity of millet in the central part of Ukraine

2018 ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
N. V. Danilova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Perennial Grass ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Eating Quality ◽  
Winter Crops ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is a change of climatic conditions in the global atmosphere and on the Earth in general (or within its individual zones or territories) caused directly or indirectly due by the human activity on the planet, which are overlaid on the natural climatic variations (fluctuations) and ob-served during comparable periods of time.    Both the climate of Ukraine and the global climate are changing, but warming within our terri-tory progresses even faster than in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Ukraine in general and southern regions in particular are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change – droughts, extremely high temperatures, inefficient precipitation, reduced irrigated area cause of precipitation amount and regime, severer and more long-lasting droughts, reduced water availability. The majority of arable land in Ukraine are located in zones of unstable and insufficient humidity, it is quite possible that for plant growing, especially for growing winter crops and early spring crops, climate change will rather have a positive effect than negative one. Among the main types of cereals millet is the most common one. It is valuable for its groats, which is known by its high eating quality. Millet as a fast-growing crop having a certain agrotechnical importance: it is used as a backup crop for re-sowing dead winter crops and is suitable for stubble and post-harvest sowing, it also can be used as a cover culture for perennial grass. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops. It is able to withstand heat injuries which is very important in arid areas and during dry years, when other grain crops have reduced yield. Millet suffers less from pests and diseases than other crops. The task was to evaluate the agro-climatic conditions of millet crops formation in the central part of Ukraine under conditions of climate change. The study of the impact of climate change on the formation of millet productivity for different time intervals was performed by comparing the data of the RCP scenario and the average long-term climatic and agro-climatic parameters. The in-fluence of agroclimatic conditions on the dynamics of increase of agroecological yield of different levels is also assessed.

scholarly journals Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi ◽  
Hamideh Kazemi ◽  
P. Ranjan Sarukkalige
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The application of two distinctively different hydrologic models, (conceptual-HBV) and (distributed-BTOPMC), was compared to simulate the future runoff across three unregulated catchments of the Australian Hydrologic Reference Stations (HRSs), namely Harvey catchment in WA, and Beardy and Goulburn catchments in NSW. These catchments have experienced significant runoff reduction during the last decades due to climate change and human activities. The Budyko-elasticity method was employed to assign the influences of human activities and climate change on runoff variations. After estimating the contribution of climate change in runoff reduction from the past runoff regime, the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of eight global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate the future daily runoff at the three HRSs for the mid-(2046–2065) and late-(2080–2099) 21st-century. Results show that the conceptual model performs better than the distributed model in capturing the observed streamflow across the three contributing catchments. The performance of the models was relatively compatible in the overall direction of future streamflow change, regardless of the magnitude, and incompatible regarding the change in the direction of high and low flows for both future climate scenarios. Both models predicted a decline in wet and dry season's streamflow across the three catchments.

scholarly journals Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

scholarly journals Geographic Distribution Shift of Invasive Plant Austroeupatorium inulifolium in the Future Climate Projection

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Angga Yudaputra ◽  
Izu Andry Fijridiyanto ◽  
Inggit Puji Astuti ◽  
Rizmoon Nurul Zulkarnaen ◽  
Ade Yuswandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Invasive Plant Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Occurrence Records

Aims: This study aims to predict the future geographic distribution shift of invasive plant species Austroeupathorium inulifolium as the impact of global climate change. Study Design: The rising temperature and precipitation change lead to the geographic distribution shift of organisms. A. inulifolium belongs to invasive plant species that often causes a substantial economic loss and ecological degradation in the invaded areas. Modelling of species distribution using the climate-based model could be used to understand the geographic distribution shift of invasive species in the future scenario under global climate change. Place and Duration of Study: Center for Plant Conservation and Botanic Gardens – LIPI and 6 months. Methodology: The total 2228 of occurrence records were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The seven climatic variables were selected from 19 variables using a pairwise correlation test (vifcor) with a threshold >0.7. The ensemble model was used by combining Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Results: Both two models are well-performed either using AUC or TSS evaluation methods. RF and SVM have AUC >0.95, and TSS >0.8. The predicted current distribution tends to have larger distribution areas compared to observed occurrence records. The predicted future distribution seems to be shifted in several parts of North America and Europe. Conclusion: The geographic distribution of invasive plant species A. inulifolium will be shifted to the Northern part of globe in 2090. Mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter are the two most important variables that determine the distribution pattern of the A. inulifolium. The predictive distribution pattern of invasive plant A. inulifolium would be important to provide information about the impact of climate change to the geographic distribution shift of this species.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshepo S. Masipa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Food Items ◽  
The Impact

This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (in)security. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

scholarly journals Current Evidence and Future Projections: a Comparative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Critical Climate-Sensitive Areas of Papua New Guinea

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 229
Author(s):  
Patrick S. Michael
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Sensitive Areas ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is a global concern arising from spatial or temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and greenhouse gases. The impacts of this on critical climate-sensitive areas are largely on land, marine resources, forestry and agriculture, and their biodiversity and ecosystems. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), the mainstay (85%) of the rural people is on land and agriculture, compared to resources obtained from the marine areas and forest. Productivity on land depends on climatic factors and a compromised climate affects land, which in turn affects forestry, agriculture and the marine environment (resources and ecosystems). Because of this, a lot of resources have been invested in climate change to understand the impacts; however, much is yet to be achieved, especially in the developing nations. In PNG, understanding the types of changes in climate that will be experienced is important to be resilient, to mitigate and to adapt. In this review, the potential impact of global climate change on climate of PNG and the impact of the new (future) climate on land, marine and forest resources and their biodiversity and ecosystems are analyzed. Moreover, the impacts on crop agriculture are discussed. Analysis of available data shows that the temporal and spatial changes in precipitation and temperature projections of the future climate are within current optimum crop production ranges, at least up to 2090. Since most staple and plantation crops in PNG are C<sub>3</sub> plants, an increase in CO<sub>2</sub> levels will have a fertilizing effect on productivity. The plastic effects on certain crops may benefit some farmers as temperature, precipitation and CO<sub>2</sub> levels change.

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