Volcanic impact on the tropical hydrological cycle 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta D'Agostino ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Monsoon Area ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical precipitation is investigated in a new set of sensitivity experiments within Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble framework. Five ensembles are created, each containing 100 realizations for an idealized tropical volcanic eruption located at the equator, analogous the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, with emissions covering a range of 2.5 - 40 Tg S. The ensembles provide an excellent database to disentangle the influence of volcanic forcing on regional monsoons and tropical hydroclimate over the wide spectrum of the climate internal variability. Monsoons are generally weaker during the two years after volcanic eruptions and their weakening is a function of emissions: the strongest the volcanic eruption, the weakest are the land monsoons. The extent of rain belt is also affected: the monsoon area is overall narrower than the unperturbed control simulation. While the position of main ascents does not change, the idealised tropical volcanic eruption supports the shrinking of Hadley Cell's ascent and the narrowing of the ITCZ. We investigate this behavior by analysing the changes in Hadley/Walker circulation, net energy input and energy budget to find analogies/differences with global warming.</p>

Impact of the 536/540 CE double volcanic eruption event on the 6th-7th century climate using model and proxy data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelien van Dijk ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Stephan Lorenz ◽  
Manon Bajard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
The Impact

<p>The mid of the 6<sup>th</sup> century is an outstanding period and started with an unusual cold period that lasted several years to decades, due to the 536/540 CE double eruption event, with the strongest decadal volcanic forcing in the last 2000 years. Evidence from multiple tree ring records from the Alps to the Altai Mountains in Russia identified a centennial cooling lasting from 536 up to 660 CE. A previous Earth System Model (ESM) study with reconstructed volcanic forcing covering 535-550 CE like conditions already found that the double eruption led to a global decrease in temperature and an increase in Arctic sea-ice for at least a decade. However, the simulations were too short to fully investigate the multi-decadal cooling event and the atmospheric forcing from this double volcanic eruption alone may not be enough to sustain such a prolonged cooling. To better understand forced versus internal decadal climate variability in the first millennium we have performed mid 6<sup>th</sup> century ensemble simulations with the MPI-ESM1.2 for the 520-680 CE period. The ensemble consists of 10 realizations, which were branched of the MPI-ESM1.2 PMIP4 Past2k run, including the evolv2k volcanic forcing.</p><p>Here, we present results of this new set of the 6<sup>th</sup>-7<sup>th</sup> century MPI-ESM simulations in comparison to paleo-proxies. Summer surface temperatures are analyzed and compared with available tree-ring data, which fits very well for the entire 160 year period. As part of the VIKINGS project, special focus is placed on the impact of the 536/540 CE double volcanic eruption event on the surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Scandinavia, Northern Europe and Siberia. The goal is to also compare the model data with new tree-ring and lake sediment proxies from southeastern Norway. Detailed comparison with proxy data will allow us to better understand the regional and seasonal climate variations of the 6<sup>th</sup>-7<sup>th</sup> century. Duration, strength and the possible mechanism for a long lasting volcanic induced cooling will be discussed.</p>

On the dependency of simulated volcanically-forced variability to model configuration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Davide Zanchettin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Intrinsic Variability ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Coupled Climate Models ◽  
Volcanic Forcing

<p>Several uncertainties affect the simulation of the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing by coupled climate models, which primarily stem from model specificities and intrinsic variability. To better understand the relative contribution of both sources of uncertainties, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has been initiated as part of the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments with prescription of the same volcanic forcing and coherent sampling of initial conditions to be performed to the different participating coupled climate models. However, as the VolMIP effort focuses on comparison across different models, an open question remains about how different configurations of the same model affect the comparability of results.</p><p> Here, we present first results of CMIP6 VolMIP simulations performed with the MPIESM1.2 in two resolutions. The low resolution (LR) configuration employs an atmospheric resolution of T63 (~200 km), and nominal ocean resolution of 1.5°. The high resolution (HR) configuration employs twice of the horizontal resolution of its atmospheric component (T127 ~100 km)   with a spontaneously generated QBO, and an eddy-permitting ocean resolution of  0.4°.</p><p>In this contribution we illustrate results from the volc-pinatubo experiments, which focus on the assessment of uncertainty in the seasonal-to-interannual climatic response to an idealized 1991 Pinatubo-like eruption, and from the volc-long experiments, which are designed to investigate the long-term dynamical climate response to volcanic eruptions. We compare responses of different climate variables, e.g. near-surface air temperature, precipitation and sea ice on global and regional scale.  Special emphasis will be placed on the volcanic impact on the tropical hydrological cycle.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 6565-6591
Author(s):  
Clarissa Alicia Kroll ◽  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Alon Azoulay ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Power Functions ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Point Temperature ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Increasing the temperature of the tropical cold-point region through heating by volcanic aerosols results in increases in the entry value of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and subsequent changes in the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5, 160] %. However, for single ensemble members, the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation-based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5±2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear-sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W m−2, ranging between [2.5, 4] % of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold-point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to aerosol optical depth (AOD) nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold-point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases of 12 % per Kelvin increase in mean cold-point temperature. For yearly averages, power functions are fitted to the cold-point warming and SWV forcing with increasing AOD.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Illing ◽  
Christopher Kadow ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the time scale of a few years; but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the question emerges how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean, to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase among other things. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over four years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm/day, is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger than in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

scholarly journals Assessment of Temporal Effects of a Mud Volcanic Eruption on the Bacterial Community and Their Predicted Metabolic Functions in the Mud Volcanic Sites of Niaosong, Southern Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 2315
Author(s):  
Ho-Chuan Hsu ◽  
Jung-Sheng Chen ◽  
Viji Nagarajan ◽  
Bashir Hussain ◽  
Shih-Wei Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Diversity ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Temporal Effects ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Animal Pathogens ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Southern Taiwan ◽  
The Impact

The microbial communities inhabiting mud volcanoes have received more attention due to their noteworthy impact on the global methane cycle. However, the impact of temporal effects of volcanic eruptions on the microbial community’s diversity and functions remain poorly characterized. This study aimed to underpin the temporal variations in the bacterial community’s diversity and PICRUSt-predicted functional profile changes of mud volcanic sites located in southern Taiwan using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The physicochemical analysis showed that the samples were slightly alkaline and had elevated levels of Na+, Cl−, and SO42−. Comparatively, the major and trace element contents were distinctly higher, and tended to be increased in the long-period samples. Alpha diversity metrics revealed that the bacterial diversity and abundance were lesser in the initial period, but increased over time. Instead, day 96 and 418 samples showed reduced bacterial abundance, which may have been due to the dry spell that occurred before each sampling. The initial-period samples were significantly abundant in haloalkaliphilic marine-inhabiting, hydrocarbon-degrading bacterial genera such as Marinobacter, Halomonas, Marinobacterium, and Oceanimonas. Sulfur-reducing bacteria such as Desulfurispirillum and Desulfofarcimen were found dominant in the mid-period samples, whereas the methanogenic archaeon Methanosarcina was abundant in the long-period samples. Unfortunately, heavy precipitation encountered during the mid and long periods may have polluted the volcanic site with animal pathogens such as Desulfofarcimen and Erysipelothrix. The functional prediction results showed that lipid biosynthesis and ubiquinol pathways were significantly abundant in the initial days, and the super pathway of glucose and xylose degradation was rich in the long-period samples. The findings of this study highlighted that the temporal effects of a mud volcanic eruption highly influenced the bacterial diversity, abundance, and functional profiles in our study site.

scholarly journals The Impact of Volcanic Eruptions of Different Magnitude on Stratospheric Water Vapour in the Tropics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Alicia Kroll ◽  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Alon Azoulay ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Point Temperature ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions increase the stratospheric water vapour (SWV) entry via long wave heating through the aerosol layer in the cold point region, and this additional SWV alters the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different eruption strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5,160] %, while for single ensemble members the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for the eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5 ± 2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume, but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W/m2, ranging between [2.5, 4] percent of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to AOD nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights, and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases with a 12 % increase per Kelvin increase in mean cold point temperature, and yearly averages show an approximately linear behaviour in the cold point warming and SWV forcing with respect to the AOD.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Illing ◽  
Christopher Kadow ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day−1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

scholarly journals Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Zanchettin ◽  
O. Bothe ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
J. Bader ◽  
A. Beitsch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Volcanic Forcing

Abstract. The decadal evolution of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice following strong volcanic eruptions is investigated in four climate simulation ensembles performed with the COSMOS-Mill version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The ensembles differ in the magnitude of the imposed volcanic perturbations, with sizes representative of historical tropical eruptions (1991 Pinatubo and 1815 Tambora) and of tropical and extra-tropical "supervolcano" eruptions. A post-eruption Arctic sea-ice expansion is robustly detected in all ensembles, while Antarctic sea ice responds only to supervolcano eruptions, undergoing an initial short-lived expansion and a subsequent prolonged contraction phase. Strong volcanic forcing therefore emerges as a potential source of inter-hemispheric interannual-to-decadal climate variability, although the inter-hemispheric signature is weak in the case of eruptions comparable to historical eruptions. The post-eruption inter-hemispheric decadal asymmetry in sea ice is interpreted as a consequence mainly of the different exposure of Arctic and Antarctic regional climates to induced meridional heat transport changes and of dominating local feedbacks that set in within the Antarctic region. Supervolcano experiments help to clarify differences in simulated hemispheric internal dynamics related to imposed negative net radiative imbalances, including the relative importance of the thermal and dynamical components of the sea-ice response. Supervolcano experiments could therefore serve the assessment of climate models' behavior under strong external forcing conditions and, consequently, favor advancements in our understanding of simulated sea-ice dynamics.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Climate Extremes Using CMIP5 Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5333-5349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungmok Paik ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study analyzes extreme temperature and precipitation responses over the global land to five explosive tropical volcanic eruptions that occurred since the 1880s, using CMIP5 multimodel simulations. Changes in annual extreme indices during posteruption years are examined using a composite analysis. First, a robust global decrease in extreme temperature is found, which is stronger than the internal variability ranges (estimated from random bootstrap sampling). Intermodel correlation analysis shows a close relationship between annual extreme and mean temperature responses to volcanic forcing, indicating a similar mechanism at work. The cooling responses exhibit strong intermodel correlation with a decrease in surface humidity, consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Second, extreme and mean precipitation reductions are observed during posteruption years, especially in Northern and Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon regions, with good intermodel agreement. The precipitation decreases are also larger than the internal variability ranges and are dominated by the monsoon regions. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that most of the precipitation decrease over the monsoon regions is explained by evaporation decrease, as well as dynamic and thermodynamic contributions. Interestingly, the dynamic effect is found to have a large influence on intermodel spread in precipitation responses, with high intermodel correlation with mean and extreme precipitation changes. These model-based results are largely supported by an observational analysis based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Extremes Index 2 (HadEX2) dataset for the recent three volcanic eruptions. Our results demonstrate that temperature and precipitation extremes significantly respond to volcanic eruptions, largely resembling mean climate responses, which have important implications for geoengineering based on solar radiation management.

scholarly journals Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Zanchettin ◽  
O. Bothe ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
J. Bader ◽  
A. Beitsch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Volcanic Forcing

Abstract. The decadal evolution of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice following strong volcanic eruptions is investigated in four climate simulation ensembles performed with the COSMOS-Mill version of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model. The ensembles differ in the magnitude of the imposed volcanic perturbations, with sizes representative of historical tropical eruptions (1991 Pinatubo and 1815 Tambora) and of tropical and extra-tropical "supervolcano" eruptions. A post-eruption Arctic sea-ice expansion is robustly detected in all ensembles, while Antarctic sea ice responds only to "supervolcano" eruptions, undergoing an initial short-lived expansion and a subsequent prolonged contraction phase. Strong volcanic forcing therefore emerges as a potential source of inter-hemispheric interannual-to-decadal climate variability, although the inter-hemispheric signature is weak in the case of historical-size eruptions. The post-eruption inter-hemispheric decadal asymmetry in sea ice is interpreted as a consequence mainly of different exposure of Arctic and Antarctic regional climates to induced meridional heat transport changes and of dominating local feedbacks that set in within the Antarctic region. "Supervolcano" experiments help clarifying differences in simulated hemispheric internal dynamics related to imposed negative net radiative imbalances, including the relative importance of the thermal and dynamical components of the sea-ice response. "Supervolcano" experiments could therefore serve the assessment of climate models' behavior under strong external forcing conditions and, consequently, favor advancements in our understanding of simulated sea-ice dynamics.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document