Compound disaster scenarios for risk management assessment in CAREC countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iain Willis ◽  
Amanda Cheong ◽  
Christopher Au ◽  
Anirudh Rao ◽  
Ian Millinship
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Collaborative Study ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Autonomous Region ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Compound Disaster ◽  
The Impact

<p>A compound disaster defines a situation with adverse consequences resulting from different, but related, disaster‐agents (ICLA 1996). These low probability extreme events can correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, resulting in major financial or physical loss (Sadegh et al., 2018). In this study, disaster scenarios involving natural hazards and pandemics were developed to assess the risk and implications of a compound event to member countries of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) area.</p><p>A partnership of 11 countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region; Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region), Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) across Asia, the CAREC countries work together to promote sustainable development, economic growth and reduce poverty. High exposure to flooding and earthquake coupled with low insurance penetration means natural catastrophes are significantly material to the public sector balance sheet. This collaborative study involving multiple hazard modelling agencies assesses the potential impact of natural perils concurrent to pandemic/epidemic outbreaks.</p><p>The compound events developed represent Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) for the specific areas they represent and are based on plausible low-probability, high-consequence events such as the 2015 floods in Tbilisi and the 1905 Bolnai earthquake in Mongolia. The impact of the natural events is then further compounded by modelled infectious disease outbreaks for each given scenario.</p><p>High resolution fluvial and pluvial flood hazard scenario footprints (30m x 30m), earthquake hazard intensity maps and gridded population data (Worldpop) are modelled alongside outbreaks including respiratory (including flu), Nipah and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, to assess the compounded impact. The humanitarian and financial loss potential of these events are then presented in the context of alternative disaster risk financing measures and adaptation strategies aimed at increased resilience.</p><p> </p><p>ICLA (1996), International Conference on Local Authorities Confronting Disasters and Emergencies, Background Documents, Amsterdam.</p><p>Sadegh, M., Moftakhari, H., Gupta, H. V., Ragno, E., Mazdiyasni, O., Sanders, B., ... & AghaKouchak, A. (2018). Multihazard scenarios for analysis of compound extreme events. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(11), 5470-5480.</p>

The Nexus between Financial Development, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in India: A VECM Technique

2020 ◽  
pp. 602-612
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Growth Energy ◽  
The Impact

The demand for energy consumption requires efficient financial development in terms of bank credit. Therefore, this study examines the nexus between Financial Development, Economic Growth, Energy Prices and Energy Consumption in India, utilizing Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique to determine the nature of short and long term relationships from 2010 to 2019. The estimation of results indicates that a one percent increase in bank credits to private sector results in 0.10 percent increase in energy consumption and 0.28 percent increase in energy consumption responses to 1 percent increase in economic growth. It is also observed that the impact of energy price proxied by consumer price index is statistically significant with a negative sign indicating the consistency with the theory.

The Relation between Accounting Information in Debt Covenants and Operating Leases

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 969-996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Gyung H. Paik ◽  
Joyce A. van der Laan Smith ◽  
Brandon Byunghwan Lee ◽  
Sung Wook Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Debt Covenants ◽  
Debt Contracts ◽  
Debt Contracting ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
Operating Leases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Accounting Ratios ◽  
Lease Accounting

SYNOPSIS Proposed changes by the FASB and the IASB to lease accounting standards will substantially change the accounting for operating leases by requiring the capitalization of future lease payments. We consider the impact of these changes on firms' debt covenants by examining the frequency of income-statement- versus balance-sheet-based accounting ratios in debt covenants of firms in high and low Off Balance Sheet (OBS) lease industries. Based on debt contracts from the 1996–2009 period, our results provide evidence that lenders focus on balance sheet (income statement) ratios in designing debt covenants for borrowers in low (high) OBS lease industries. Further, the use of balance-sheet- (income-statement-) based covenants falls (rises) faster in high OBS lease industries than in low OBS lease industries as the use of OBS leasing increases. This evidence indicates that OBS operating leases influence lenders' use of accounting information in covenants, suggesting that creditors consider the impact of OBS leases when structuring debt agreements. These results also suggest that the proposed capitalization of OBS leases may not result in firms violating loan covenants but will make the balance sheet a more complete source of information for debt contracting by removing the need for constructive capitalization of OBS leases.

scholarly journals Exploring Residents’ Perceptions of the Socio-Cultural Benefits of Tourism Development in the Mountain Area

Societies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Iulia C. Muresan ◽  
Rezhen Harun ◽  
Felix H. Arion ◽  
Ava Omar Fatah ◽  
Diana E. Dumitras
Keyword(s):  
Positive Attitude ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Sustainable Tourism Development ◽  
The Impact

Development of tourism affected the socio-cultural environment of many destinations. Previous studies have focused more on analyzing the impact of tourism on all three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environment and socio-cultural); therefore, the present paper examines tourism development’s impact with regard to the socio-cultural benefits that enhance sustainable tourism development. A survey based on a questionnaire was employed in June 2018 in a mountain village in Cluj County, Romania. The collected data were analyzed using principal component analysis, and several statistical tests were conducted. The results indicated that the respondents have a positive attitude towards tourism development and socio-cultural perceived benefits. Older people and those running a business tend to perceive more positively the benefits of tourism development. The findings of the research could contribute to future development strategies, as it is well known that supporting local communities influences the success of tourism destination.

scholarly journals Shift Detection in Hydrological Regimes and Pluriannual Low-Frequency Streamflow Forecasting Using the Hidden Markov Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Rolim ◽  
Francisco de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Hydrologic Time Series ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
The Impact

Improved water resource management relies on accurate analyses of the past dynamics of hydrological variables. The presence of low-frequency structures in hydrologic time series is an important feature. It can modify the probability of extreme events occurring in different time scales, which makes the risk associated with extreme events dynamic, changing from one decade to another. This article proposes a methodology capable of dynamically detecting and predicting low-frequency streamflow (16–32 years), which presented significance in the wavelet power spectrum. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm, the breaks for additive seasonal and trend (BFAST) method, and the hidden Markov model (HMM) were used to identify the shifts in low frequency. The HMM was also used to forecast the low frequency. As part of the results, the regime shifts detected by the BFAST approach are not entirely consistent with results from the other methods. A common shift occurs in the mid-1980s and can be attributed to the construction of the reservoir. Climate variability modulates the streamflow low-frequency variability, and anthropogenic activities and climate change can modify this modulation. The identification of shifts reveals the impact of low frequency in the streamflow time series, showing that the low-frequency variability conditions the flows of a given year.

The impact of extreme events on energy price risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 105308
Author(s):  
Jun Wen ◽  
Xin-Xin Zhao ◽  
Chun-Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Impact hazard monitoring: theory and implementation

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (S318) ◽  
pp. 221-230
Author(s):  
D. Farnocchia
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Yarkovsky Effect ◽  
Monte Carlo Algorithms ◽  
Impact Monitoring ◽  
Successful Technique ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Computationally Intensive ◽  
Orbit Estimation ◽  
Near Earth Asteroids ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe review the most standard impact monitoring techniques. Linear methods are the fastest approach but their applicability regime is limited because of the chaotic dynamics of near-Earth asteroids. Among nonlinear methods, Monte Carlo algorithms are the most reliable ones but also most computationally intensive and so unpractical for routine impact monitoring. In the last 15 years, the Line of Variations method has been the most successful technique thanks to its computational efficiency and capability of detecting low probability events deep in the nonlinear regime. We also present some more recent techniques developed to deal with the new challenges arising in the impact hazard assessment problem. In particular, we describe keyhole maps as a tool to go beyond strongly scattering encounters and how to account for nongravitational perturbations, especially the Yarkovsky effect, when their contribution is the main source of prediction uncertainty. Finally, we discuss systematic ranging to deal with the short-term hazard assessment problem for newly discovered asteroids, when only a short observed arc is available thus leading to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process.

The Influence of Altitude on Erythropoietin Resistance Index in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients: Data from Tibetan Plateau

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Zong-hui Dang ◽  
Liang-ying Gan ◽  
Ciren Luobu ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Resistance Index ◽  
Hemoglobin Concentration ◽  
Maintenance Hemodialysis ◽  
Autonomous Region ◽  
Tibet Autonomous Region ◽  
Dialysis Vintage ◽  
Peking University ◽  
The Impact

Background: It is known that hypoxia influences many of the biologic processes involved in erythropoiesis; therefore, the high-altitude hypoxia may affect erythropoietin (EPO) responsiveness in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of altitude on EPO responsiveness in MHD patients. Methods: In this retrospective study, MHD patients from Tibet Autonomous Region People’s Hospital (3,650 m above sea level) and Peking University People’s Hospital (43.5 m above sea level) were recruited between May 2016 and December 2018. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to altitude. Variables including age, sex, dialysis vintage, dialysis modality, duration of EPO use, EPO doses, and laboratory tests were collected and analyzed. EPO responsiveness was measured in terms of the EPO resistance index (ERI). ERI was defined as the weekly weight-adjusted dose of EPO (IU/kg/week) divided by hemoglobin concentration (g/dL). The association between ERI and altitude was estimated using a multivariable linear regression model. Results: Sixty-two patients from Tibet Autonomous Region People’s Hospital (high-altitude [HA] group) and 102 patients from Peking University People’s Hospital (low-altitude [LA] group) were recruited. The ERI for HA group and LA group was 6.9 ± 5.1 IU w−1 kg−1 (g/dL)−1 and 11.5 ± 6.4 IU w−1 kg−1 (g/dL)−1, respectively. After adjusting for covariates by multivariable regression, altitude was independently associated with ERI (R2 = 0.245, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Altitude had an independent negative correlation with ERI. This result supported the hypothesis that altitude-associated hypoxia improved EPO responsiveness in MHD patients.

New directional wave observations from CFOSAT : impact on ocean/wave coupling in the Southern Ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lotfi Aouf ◽  
Daniele Hauser ◽  
Stephane Law-Chune ◽  
Bertrand chapron ◽  
Alice Dalphinet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Bias Reduction ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Wave Coupling ◽  
Ocean Region ◽  
Directional Wave ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;The Southern ocean is a complex ocean region with uncertainties related to surface wind forcing and fluxes exchanges at the air/sea interface. The improvement of wind wave generation in this ocean region is crucial for climate studies. With CFOSAT satellite mission, the SWIM instrument provides directional wave spectra for wavelengths from 70 to 500 m, which shed light on the role of correcting the wave direction and peak wave number of dominant wave trains in the wind-waves growth phase. This consequently induced a better energy transfer between waves and a significant bias reduction of wave height in the Southern Ocean (Aouf et al. 2020). The objective of this work is to extend the analysis of the impact of the assimilation of wave number components from SWIM wave partitions on the ocean/wave coupling. To this end, coupled simulations of the wave model MFWAM and the ocean model NEMO are performed during the southern winter period of 2019 (May-July). We have examined the MFWAM/NEMO coupling with and without the assimilation of the SWIM mean wave number components. Several coupling processes related to Stokes drift, momentum flux stress and wave breaking inducing turbulence in the ocean mixing layer have been analyzed. We also compared the coupled runs with a control run without wave forcing in order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation. The results of coupled simulations have been validated with satellite Sea Surface Temperature and available surface currents data over the southern ocean. We also investigated the impact of the assimilation during severe storms with unlimited fetch conditions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Further discussions and conclusions will be commented in the final paper.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Aouf L., New directional wave satellite observations : Towards improved wave forecasting and climate description in Southern Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091187 (in production).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt;&lt;/div&gt; &lt;div&gt;What do you want to do ?&lt;/div&gt; New mail&lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;img&gt;&lt;/div&gt;

The Impact of Environmental Pollution on Ethnic Unrest in Xinjiang: A Uyghur Perspective

Modern China ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 504-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nimrod Baranovitch
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Han Chinese ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Autonomous Region ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Ethnic Tension ◽  
Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region ◽  
The Impact

Since the early 1990s, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region has been one of the most restive areas in China, and in recent years, following the July 2009 Urumchi riots, it has experienced frequent incidents of severe ethnic violence. A large body of scholarship has attempted to explain the sources of Uyghur discontent and pointed to various factors, including cultural and religious repression, unemployment, discrimination, and the mass migration of Han Chinese settlers into the region. This article proposes that environmental degradation, a factor that so far has received little attention in the research that focuses on ethnic tension in Xinjiang, is another important contributing factor. Focusing on air and water pollution in Xinjiang, but also addressing other types of environmental degradation, the article examines the attitudes of Uyghurs toward the phenomenon and shows how their perceptions have affected and been affected by their tense relationship with the Chinese government and the Han Chinese settlers in the region.

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