Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly

There has recently been a large focus on identifying the mechanisms responsible for Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, decadal-scale variability embedded within the AMV has received less attention, despite being a prominent feature of observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and important for the climate of adjacent continents. These decadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean are also a key source of skill in decadal climate predictions. However, the mechanisms underlying decadal SST variability remain to be fully understood. This study isolates the mechanisms driving North Atlantic SST variability on decadal time scales using low-frequency component analysis, which identifies the spatial and temporal structure of low-frequency variability. Based on observations, large ensemble historical simulations and pre-industrial control simulations, we identify a decadal mode of atmosphere-ocean variability in the North Atlantic with a dominant time scale of 13-18 years. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies drive SST anomalies both through contemporaneous air-sea heat fluxes and through delayed ocean circulation changes, the latter involving both the meridional overturning circulation and the horizontal gyre circulation. The decadal SST anomalies alter the atmospheric meridional temperature gradient, leading to a reversal of the initial atmospheric circulation anomaly. The time scale of variability is consistent with westward propagation of baroclinic Rossby waves across the subtropical North Atlantic. The temporal development and spatial pattern of observed decadal SST variability are consistent with the recent observed cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. This strongly suggests that the recent cold anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic is, in part, a result of decadal SST variability, and that we might expect it to become less pronounced over the next few years.

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Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-0464.1 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-52

Author(s):

Marius Ǻrthun ◽

Robert C. J. Wills ◽

Helen L. Johnson ◽

Léon Chafik ◽

Helene R. Langehaug

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Time Scale ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

The North ◽

Sst Variability ◽

Cold Anomaly ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Sst Anomalies

AbstractDecadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean influence climate over adjacent land areas and are a major source of skill in climate predictions. However, the mechanisms underlying decadal SST variability remain to be fully understood. This study isolates the mechanisms driving North Atlantic SST variability on decadal time scales using low-frequency component analysis, which identifies the spatial and temporal structure of low-frequency variability. Based on observations, large ensemble historical simulations and pre-industrial control simulations, we identify a decadal mode of atmosphere-ocean variability in the North Atlantic with a dominant time scale of 13-18 years. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies drive SST anomalies both through contemporaneous air-sea heat fluxes and through delayed ocean circulation changes, the latter involving both the meridional overturning circulation and the horizontal gyre circulation. The decadal SST anomalies alter the atmospheric meridional temperature gradient, leading to a reversal of the initial atmospheric circulation anomaly. The time scale of variability is consistent with westward propagation of baroclinic Rossby waves across the subtropical North Atlantic. The temporal development and spatial pattern of observed decadal SST variability are consistent with the recent observed cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. This suggests that the recent cold anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic is, in part, a result of decadal SST variability.

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Co-variability of salinity and temperature changes in the North Atlantic

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5324 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Levke Caesar ◽

Gerard McCarthy

Keyword(s):

Ocean Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Climate Model ◽

Surface Fluxes ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Geophysical Research ◽

Overturning Circulation ◽

The North ◽

Cold Anomaly ◽

The North Atlantic

While there is increasing paleoclimatic evidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened over the last one to two hundred years (Caesar et al., 2018; Thornalley et al., 2018), this is not confirmed by climate model simulations. Instead, the new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a slight strengthening of the multimodel mean AMOC from 1850 until about 1985 (Menary et al., 2020), attributed to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Arguing for a recent weakening of the AMOC, some studies attribute the emergence of the North Atlantic warming hole as a sign of the reduced meridional heat transport associated with a weaker AMOC (e.g. Caesar et al., 2018), yet this cold anomaly has also been interpreted as being aerosol-forced (Booth et al., 2012) and therefore not necessarily a sign of a weakening AMOC but rather a possible driver of a strengthening of the AMOC.Looking beyond temperature, a fresh anomaly has recently emerged in the subpolar North Atlantic (Holliday et al., 2020). While a strengthening AMOC has been linked with an increase in salinity in the subpolar gyre region (Menary et al., 2013), an AMOC weakening would, due to the salt-advection feedback, likely lead to a reduction in salinity in the North Atlantic region. To shed some light on the question of whether the cold anomaly is internally (AMOC) or externally (aerosol-forced) driven we consider the co-variability of salinity and temperature in the North Atlantic in respect of changes in surface fluxes or alternate drivers.&#160;ReferencesBooth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Halloran, P.R., Andrews, T. and Bellouin, N., 2012. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature, 484(7393): 228&#8211;232.Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G. and Saba, V., 2018. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature, 556(7700): 191-196.Holliday, N.P., Bersch, M., Berx, B., Chafik, L., Cunningham, S., Florindo-L&#243;pez, C., H&#225;t&#250;n, H., Johns, W., Josey, S.A., Larsen, K.M.H., Mulet, S., Oltmanns, M., Reverdin, G., Rossby, T., Thierry, V., Valdimarsson, H. and Yashayaev, I., 2020. Ocean circulation causes the largest freshening event for 120 years in eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Nature Communications, 11(1): 585.Menary, M.B., Roberts, C.D., Palmer, M.D., Halloran, P.R., Jackson, L., Wood, R.A., M&#252;ller, W.A., Matei, D. and Lee, S.-K., 2013. Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(4): 2087-2096.Menary, M.B., Robson, J., Allan, R.P., Booth, B.B.B., Cassou, C., Gastineau, G., Gregory, J., Hodson, D., Jones, C., Mignot, J., Ringer, M., Sutton, R., Wilcox, L. and Zhang, R., 2020. Aerosol-Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14): e2020GL088166.Thornalley, D.J.R., Oppo, D.W., Ortega, P., Robson, J.I., Brierley, C.M., Davis, R., Hall, I.R., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Rose, N.L., Spooner, P.T., Yashayaev, I. and Keigwin, L.D., 2018. Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature, 556(7700): 227-230.

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Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-5-551-2009 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 551-570 ◽

Cited By ~ 62

Author(s):

M. Kageyama ◽

J. Mignot ◽

D. Swingedouw ◽

C. Marzin ◽

R. Alkama ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Indian Monsoon ◽

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Climate Variations ◽

Climatic Response ◽

The North ◽

Meridional Overturning ◽

The North Atlantic

Abstract. Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv) resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv) AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv) are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the Indian monsoon weakening appears to be connected to the North Atlantic cooling via that of the troposphere over Eurasia. Such an understanding of these teleconnections and their timing could be useful for paleodata interpretation.

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Global Monsoon Responses to Decadal Sea Surface Temperature Variations during the Twentieth Century: Evidence from AGCM Simulations

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0890.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (22) ◽

pp. 7675-7695 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Jie Jiang ◽

Tianjun Zhou

Keyword(s):

Twentieth Century ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Monsoon Precipitation ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Sst Anomalies

Abstract Multidecadal variations in the global land monsoon were observed during the twentieth century, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955 that was followed by a decreasing trend up to 1990, but the mechanisms governing the above changes remain inconclusive. Based on the outputs of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) covering the twentieth century, supplemented with AGCM simulations forced by idealized SST anomalies representing different conditions of the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific, evidence shows that the observed changes can be partly reproduced, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) domain, demonstrating the modulation of decadal SST changes on the long-term variations in monsoon precipitation. Moisture budget analysis is performed to understand the interdecadal changes in monsoon precipitation, and the dynamic term associated with atmospheric circulation changes is found to be prominent, while the contribution of the thermodynamic term associated with humidity changes can lead to coincident wetting over the NHSM domain. The increase (decrease) in NHSM land precipitation during 1901–55 (1956–90) is associated with the strengthening (weakening) of NHSM circulation and Walker circulation. The multidecadal scale changes in atmospheric circulation are driven by SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and the Pacific. A warmer North Atlantic together with a colder eastern tropical Pacific and a warmer western subtropical Pacific can lead to a strengthened meridional gradient in mid-to-upper-tropospheric thickness and strengthened trade winds, which transport more water vapor into monsoon regions, leading to an increase in monsoon precipitation.

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Predictability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation and Associated Surface Patterns in Two CCSM3 Climate Change Ensemble Experiments

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2011jcli4207.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (23) ◽

pp. 6054-6076 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Haiyan Teng ◽

Grant Branstator ◽

Gerald A. Meehl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Subpolar Gyre ◽

Overturning Circulation ◽

The North ◽

Surface Patterns ◽

The Mean ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Sst Anomalies

Abstract Predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated oceanic and atmospheric fields on decadal time scales in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) at T42 resolution is quantified with a 700-yr control run and two 40-member “perfect model” climate change experiments. After taking into account both the mean and spread about the mean of the forecast distributions and allowing for the possibility of time-evolving modes, the natural variability of the AMOC is found to be predictable for about a decade; beyond that range the forced predictability resulting from greenhouse gas forcing becomes dominant. The upper 500-m temperature in the North Atlantic is even more predictable than the AMOC by several years. This predictability is associated with subsurface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that propagate in an anticlockwise direction along the subpolar gyre and tend to be prominent during the 10 yr following peaks in the amplitude of AMOC anomalies. Predictability in the North Atlantic SST mainly resides in the ensemble mean signals after three to four forecast years. Analysis suggests that in the CCSM3 the subpolar gyre SST anomalies associated with the AMOC variability can influence the atmosphere and produce surface climate predictability that goes beyond the ENSO time scale. However, the resulting initial-value predictability in the atmosphere is very weak.

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Asian Origin of Interannual Variations of Summer Climate over the Extratropical North Atlantic Ocean

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00617.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 25 (19) ◽

pp. 6594-6609 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Ping Zhao ◽

Song Yang ◽

Renguang Wu ◽

Zhiping Wen ◽

Junming Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atlantic Ocean ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Land Surface ◽

North Atlantic Ocean ◽

Tropospheric Temperature ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Eurasian Region ◽

Sst Anomalies

Abstract The authors have identified an interannual relationship between Asian tropospheric temperature and the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during summer (May–September) and discussed the associated features of atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic–Eurasian region. When tropospheric temperature is high (low) over Asia, positive (negative) SST anomalies appear in the extratropical North Atlantic. This relationship is well supported by the changes in background atmospheric circulation and ocean–atmosphere–land thermodynamic processes. When heat transfer from the land surface to the atmosphere over Asia strengthens, local tropospheric temperature increases and positive temperature anomalies propagate westward from Asia to the North Atlantic, leading to an increase in summer tropospheric temperature over the Atlantic–Eurasian region. Accordingly, a deep anomalous ridge occurs over the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean, with low-level southerly anomalies over the western portion of the ocean. Sensitivity experiments with climate models show that the interannual variations of the North Atlantic–Eurasian atmospheric circulation may not be forced by the extratropical Atlantic SST. Instead, experiments with changing Asian land surface heating capture the above observed features of atmospheric circulation anomalies, westward propagation of tropospheric anomalies, and Atlantic SST anomalies. The consistency between the observational and model results indicates a possible impact of Asian land heating on the development of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over the Atlantic–Eurasian region.

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Why Does a Colder (Warmer) Winter Tend to Be Followed by a Warmer (Cooler) Summer over Northeast Eurasia?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-0036.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (17) ◽

pp. 7255-7274

Author(s):

Shangfeng Chen ◽

Renguang Wu ◽

Wen Chen ◽

Kai Li

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Wave Train ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Atmospheric Wave ◽

Anomaly Pattern ◽

Sst Anomaly ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Sst Anomalies

AbstractThis study reveals a pronounced out-of-phase relationship between surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over northeast Eurasia in boreal winter and the following summer during 1980–2017. A colder (warmer) winter over northeast Eurasia tends to be followed by a warmer (cooler) summer of next year. The processes for the out-of-phase relation of winter and summer SAT involve the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean, and a Eurasian anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern induced by the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Winter negative AO/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like atmospheric circulation anomalies lead to continental cooling over Eurasia via anomalous advection and a tripolar SST anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic SST anomaly pattern switches to a dipolar pattern in the following summer via air–sea interaction processes and associated surface heat flux changes. The summer North Atlantic dipolar SST anomaly pattern induces a downstream atmospheric wave train, including large-scale positive geopotential height anomalies over northeast Eurasia, which contributes to positive SAT anomalies there via enhancement of downward surface shortwave radiation and anomalous advection. Barotropic model experiments verify the role of the summer North Atlantic SST anomalies in triggering the atmospheric wave train over Eurasia. Through the above processes, a colder winter is followed by a warmer summer over northeast Eurasia. The above processes apply to the years when warmer winters are followed by cooler summers except for opposite signs of SAT, atmospheric circulation, and SST anomalies.

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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and sea surface temperature in the Bay of Biscay and adjacent regions

Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom ◽

10.1017/s0025315410002134 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 92 (2) ◽

pp. 213-234 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

Carlos Garcia-Soto ◽

Robin D. Pingree

Keyword(s):

North Atlantic ◽

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Bay Of Biscay ◽

The North ◽

Sst Variability ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Climate Mode ◽

Sst Anomalies

The sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the Bay of Biscay and adjacent regions (1854–2010) has been examined in relation to the evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a major climate mode. The AMO index explains ~25% of the interannual variability of the annual SST during the last 150 years, while different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) explain ≤1% of the long-term record. NAO is a high frequency climate mode while AMO can modulate low frequency changes. Sixty per cent of the AMO variability is contained in periods longer than a decade. The basin-scale influence of NAO on SST over specific years (1995 to 1998) is presented and the SST anomalies explained. The period analysed represents an abrupt change in NAO and the North Atlantic circulation state as shown with altimetry and SST data. Additional atmospheric climate data over a shorter ~60 year period (1950–2008) show the influence on the Bay of Biscay SST of the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and the Scandinavia (SCA) pattern. These atmospheric teleconnections explain respectively ~25% and ~20% of the SST variability. The winter SST in the shelf-break/slope or poleward current region is analysed in relation to AMO. The poleward current shows a trend towards increasing SSTs during the last three decades as a result of the combined positive phase of AMO and global warming. The seasonality of this winter warm flow in the Iberian region is related to the autumn/winter seasonality of south-westerly (SW) winds. The SW winds are strengthened along the European shelf-break by the development of low pressure conditions in the region to the north of the Azores and therefore a negative NAO. AMO overall modulates multidecadal changes (~60% of the AMO variance). The long-term time-series of SST and SST anomalies in the Bay of Biscay show AMO-like cycles with maxima near 1870 and 1950 and minima near 1900 and 1980 indicating a period of 60–80 years during the last century and a half. Similar AMO-like variability is found in the Russell cycle of the Western English Channel (1924–1972). AMO relates at least to four mesozooplankton components of the Russell cycle: the abundance of the chaetognaths Parasagitta elegans and Parasagitta setosa (AMO −), the amount of the species Calanus helgolandicus (AMO −), the amount of the larvae of decapod crustaceans (AMO −) and the number of pilchard eggs (Sardine pilchardus; AMO +). In addition to AMO, the decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in the number of sunspots is analysed for the last 300 years. Several periodicities and a multi-secular linear increase are presented. There are secular minima near 1710, 1810, 1910 and 2010. The long term variability (>11 years) of the solar sunspot activity explains ~50% of the variance of the SST of the Bay of Biscay with periods longer than 11 years. AMO is finally compared with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the leading principal component of North Pacific SST anomalies.

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Strengthened Linkage between November/December North Atlantic Oscillation and Subsequent January European Precipitation after the Late 1980s

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0662.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (19) ◽

pp. 8281-8300

Author(s):

Yang Liu ◽

Shengping He

Keyword(s):

North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Storm Track ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Early Winter ◽

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽

Internal Climate Variability ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic

AbstractThis work investigates the nonsynchronous relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter European precipitation. The results indicate that the linkage between early-winter (November and December) NAO and the following January precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and European sectors became statistically significant after the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s, January precipitation and atmospheric circulation are weakly correlated with early-winter NAO. After the late 1980s, by contrast, the positive phase of the early-winter NAO is generally followed by an anomalous meridional dipole pattern with barotropic structure over the North Atlantic, which provides conditions for more (less) precipitation south of Iceland (east of the Azores). Further analysis elucidates that this regime shift may be partly attributed to the change of early-winter NAO, which is concurrent with significant change in the intensity of the synoptic and low-frequency eddy interaction over the Atlantic–European sectors. Anomalous positive sea level pressure and geopotential height, along with zonal wind anomalies associated with a positive early-winter NAO over the North Atlantic, are more significant and extend more northeastward after the late 1980s, which may be induced by an intensified transient eddy feedback after the late 1980s, as well as the enhanced storm-track activity over the North Atlantic. Thus, early-winter NAO can induce significant ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic after the late 1980s, which extend downward into the middle parts of the thermocline and persist until the following January to trigger NAO-like atmospheric circulation patterns. Analyses from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble simulations indicate the effects of internal climate variability on such a strengthened linkage.

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Assessing temperature fingerprints for the Atlantic overturning in the past two millennia

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6918 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Reyhan Shirin Ermis ◽

Paola Moffa-Sánchez ◽

Alexandra Jahn ◽

Kira Rehfeld

Keyword(s):

Time Scales ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Time Scale ◽

Deep Ocean ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

The North ◽

Surface Temperatures ◽

Temperature Reconstructions ◽

The North Atlantic

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is essential to maintain the temperate climates of Europe and North America. It redistributes heat from the tropics, and stores carbon in the deep ocean. Yet, its variability and evolution are largely unknown due to the lack of long-term direct circulation measurements. Previous studies suggest a connection between the variability of the AMOC strength and a temperature dipole in the North Atlantic. These results suggest a substantial decline in the strength of the overturning at the onset of the industrial era.&#160;Here we compare temperature reconstructions from four sediment cores in the North Atlantic with model simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) as well as the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) over the Common Era. By examining the correlation between the surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the strength of the overturning we test the robustness of previously used temperature fingerprints. Analysing variability in the surface and subsurface temperatures as well as the overturning strength in models we assess possible drivers of variability in ocean circulation. We compare the persistence times and the time scale dependent variability of the AMOC, the surface and ocean temperatures in the model with those in the temperature reconstructions. The sub-surface reconstructions match with the 200m ocean temperatures in persistence times but not with the AMOC in the models. The surface temperatures in the models show persistence times similar to those obtained for the AMOC. However, time scale dependent variabilities in the surface temperatures do not match those found the AMOC. Therefore, temperature fingerprints might not be a reliable basis to reconstruct the ocean overturning strength.Due to the systematic comparison of two models on different time scales and an assessment of surface to sub-surface temperatures this study could provide new insights into the variability of Atlantic overturning on decadal time scales and beyond.

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