Decadal Prediction of Marine Heatwaves in MPI-ESM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Hövel ◽  
Sebastian Brune ◽  
Johanna Baehr
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Decadal Predictability

<p>Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are Sea Surface Temperature (SST) extremes that can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems but can also impact circulation patterns in the ocean and the atmosphere. The variability of MHWs has been studied in historical observations and longterm climate projections, but predictability has only been analyzed on seasonal timescales. Here, we we present the first attempt to study the decadal predictability of MHW days per year in an ensemble of decadal hindcasts based on the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR).</p><p>Our results show that there are strong regional differences in prediction skill. While many regions show little to no skill, we find in the Subpolar North Atlantic correlation coefficients up to 0.7 for MHW days up to lead year 8. We demonstrate that these correlations mainly arise from correctly predicting the absence of MHWs in individual years. MHW days per year might be successfully predicted by only using yearly mean SST as a proxy, which also demonstrates that in the Subpolar North Atlantic, any increase in SST is accompanied by more MHWs and vice versa.</p>

scholarly journals North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6973-6991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura M. Ciasto ◽  
Camille Li ◽  
Justin J. Wettstein ◽  
Nils Gunnar Kvamstø
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Version ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract This study investigates the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to future changes in local and global sea surface temperature (SST) and highlights the role of SST changes remote to the North Atlantic. Results are based on three related coupled climate models: the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 1 (intermediate resolution) (NorESM1-M). Analysis reveals noticeable intermodel differences in projected storm-track changes from the coupled simulations [i.e., the difference in 200-hPa eddy activity between the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and historical scenarios]. In the CCSM4 coupled simulations, the North Atlantic storm track undergoes a poleward shift and eastward extension. In CESM1(CAM5), the storm-track change is dominated by an intensification and eastward extension. In NorESM1-M, the storm-track change is characterized by a weaker intensification and slight eastward extension. Atmospheric experiments driven only by projected local (North Atlantic) SST changes from the coupled models fail to reproduce the magnitude and structure of the projected changes in eddy activity aloft and zonal wind from the coupled simulations. Atmospheric experiments driven by global SST and sea ice changes do, however, reproduce the eastward extension. Additional experiments suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations do not directly influence storm-track changes in the coupled simulations, although they do through GHG-induced changes in SST. The eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track is hypothesized to be linked to western Pacific SST changes that influence tropically forced Rossby wave trains, but further studies are needed to isolate this mechanism from other dynamical adjustments to global warming.

Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Summer Temperature Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard Borchert ◽  
Holger Pohlmann ◽  
Johanna Baehr ◽  
Nele-Charlotte Neddermann ◽  
Laura Suarez Gutierrez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
System Model ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Warm Summer

<p>We use a decadal prediction system with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 version of the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to predict the probability of occurrence for extremely warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere. An assimilation run with Max Planck Institute Earth System Model shows a robust response of summer temperature extremes in northern Europe and northeast Asia to North Atlantic sea surface temperature via a circumglobal Rossby wavetrain. When the North Atlantic is warm, warm summer temperature extremes occur with a probability of 20% and 24% in northern Europe and northeast Asia, respectively. In a cold North Atlantic phase, these probabilities are 0% and 8%. A similar dependence of the probability of occurrence for summer temperature extremes in these regions to North Atlantic SST can be found in observations.<br>To examine this effect in decadal predictions, we pool all available realizations for any given year in the decadal prediction system. Using 10 ensemble members and 10 lead years, we therefore end up with 100 realizations for any year between 1970 and 2018. We find that the probability of occurrence for summer temperature extremes in the pooled initialized climate predictions shows good agreement with the observations and the assimilation run. This agreement is related to high skill of the model system in predicting North Atlantic SST. Consequently, the likelihood of a warm summer temperature extreme occurring in the examined regions in the next 10 years can be inferred from predictions of North Atlantic temperature.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison of ocean vertical mixing schemes in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2)

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2317-2349
Author(s):  
Oliver Gutjahr ◽  
Nils Brüggemann ◽  
Helmuth Haak ◽  
Johann H. Jungclaus ◽  
Dian A. Putrasahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
Mixing Schemes ◽  
Mean State

Abstract. For the first time, we compare the effects of four different ocean vertical mixing schemes on the mean state of the ocean and atmosphere in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2). These four schemes are namely the default Pacanowski and Philander (1981) (PP) scheme, the K-profile parameterization (KPP) from the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMix) library, a recently implemented scheme based on turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and a recently developed prognostic scheme for internal wave dissipation, energy, and mixing (IDEMIX) to replace the often assumed constant background diffusivity in the ocean interior. In this study, the IDEMIX scheme is combined with the TKE scheme (collectively called the TKE+IDEMIX scheme) to provide an energetically more consistent framework for mixing, as it does not rely on the unwanted effect of creating spurious energy for mixing. Energetic consistency can have implications on the climate. Therefore, we focus on the effects of TKE+IDEMIX on the climate mean state and compare them with the first three schemes that are commonly used in other models but are not energetically consistent. We find warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas using KPP or TKE(+IDEMIX), which is related to 10 % higher overflows that cause a stronger and deeper upper cell of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thereby an enhanced northward heat transport and higher inflow of warm and saline water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic. Saltier subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas lead to increased deep convection and thus to the increased overflows. Due to the warmer SSTs, the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere become warmer with TKE(+IDEMIX), weakening the meridional gradient and thus the jet stream. With KPP, the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere also become warmer without weakening the jet stream. Using an energetically more consistent scheme (TKE+IDEMIX) produces a more heterogeneous and realistic pattern of vertical eddy diffusivity, with lower diffusivities in deep and flat-bottom basins and elevated turbulence over rough topography. IDEMIX improves in particular the diffusivity in the Arctic Ocean and reduces the warm bias in the Atlantic Water layer. We conclude that although shortcomings due to model resolution determine the global-scale bias pattern, the choice of the vertical mixing scheme may play an important role for regional biases.

The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation-Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of Earth System Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamas Bodai ◽  
Gabor Drotos ◽  
Matyas Herein ◽  
Frank Lunkeit ◽  
Valerio Lucarini
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Turn Of The Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Max Planck

<p>We study the teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in large ensemble simulations, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We characterize ENSO by the JJA Niño 3 box-average SST and the IM by the JJAS average precipitation over India, and define their teleconnection in a changing climate as an ensemble-wise correlation. To test robustness, we also consider somewhat different variables that can characterize ENSO and the IM. We utilize ensembles converged to the system’s snapshot attractor for analyzing possible <em>changes in the teleconnection</em>. Our main finding is that the teleconnection strength is typically increasing on the long term in view of appropriately revised ensemble-wise indices. Indices involving a more western part of the Pacific reveal, furthermore, a short-term but rather strong increase in strength followed by some decrease at the turn of the century. Using the station-based SOI as opposed to area-based indices leads to the identification of somewhat more erratic trends, but the turn-of-the-century “bump” is well-detectable with it. All this is in contrast, if not in contradiction, with the discussion in the literature of a weakening teleconnection in the late 20<sup>th</sup> century. We show here that this discrepancy can be due to any of three reasons: ensemble-wise and temporal correlation coefficients used in the literature are different quantities; the temporal moving correlation has a high statistical variability but possibly also persistence; MPI-ESM does not represent the Earth system faithfully.</p>

scholarly journals Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period using the NASA/GISS ModelE2-R Earth System Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 2811-2842 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Chandler ◽  
L. E. Sohl ◽  
J. A. Jonas ◽  
H. J. Dowsett
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Future Global Warming

Abstract. Climate reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bear many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In particular, marine and terrestrial paleoclimate data point to high latitude temperature amplification, with associated decreases in sea ice and land ice and altered vegetation distributions that show expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. NASA GISS climate models have been used to study the Pliocene climate since the USGS PRISM project first identified that the mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were anomalously warm. Here we present the most recent simulations of the Pliocene using the AR5/CMIP5 version of the GISS Earth System Model known as ModelE2-R. These simulations constitute the NASA contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. We provide discussion of features that show considerable improvement compared with simulations from previous versions of the NASA GISS models, improvement defined here as simulation results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene climate. In some regions even qualitative agreement between model results and paleodata are an improvement over past studies, but the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea in these new simulations is by far the most accurate portrayal ever of this key geographic region by the GISS climate model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterizations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

scholarly journals Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1519-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
T. Sueyoshi ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
T. Hajima ◽  
S. Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Precipitation Enhancement

Abstract. The importance of evaluating models through paleoclimate simulations is becoming more recognized in efforts to improve climate projection. To evaluate an integrated Earth System Model, MIROC-ESM, we performed simulations in time-slice experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 yr before present, 6 ka) and preindustrial (1850 AD, 0 ka) periods under the protocol of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3. We first give an overview of the simulated global climates by comparing with simulations using a previous version of the MIROC model (MIROC3), which is an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. We then comprehensively discuss various aspects of climate change with 6 ka forcing and how the differences in the models can affect the results. We also discuss the representation of the precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa. The precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa according to MIROC-ESM does not differ greatly from that obtained with MIROC3, which means that newly developed components such as dynamic vegetation and improvements in the atmospheric processes do not have significant impacts on the representation of the 6 ka monsoon change suggested by proxy records. Although there is no drastic difference between the African monsoon representations of the two models, there are small but significant differences in the precipitation enhancement over the Sahara in early summer, which can be related to the representation of the sea surface temperature rather than the vegetation coupling in MIROC-ESM. Because the oceanic parts of the two models are identical, the difference in the sea surface temperature change is ultimately attributed to the difference in the atmospheric and/or land modules, and possibly the difference in the representation of low-level clouds.

scholarly journals Comparison of ocean vertical mixing schemes in the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Gutjahr ◽  
Nils Brüggemann ◽  
Helmuth Haak ◽  
Johann H. Jungclaus ◽  
Dian A. Putrasahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
Mixing Schemes ◽  
Mean State

Abstract. We compare the effects of four different ocean vertical mixing schemes on the ocean mean state simulated by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) in the framework of the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMix) library. Besides the PP and KPP scheme, we implemented the TKE scheme and a recently developed prognostic scheme for internal wave energy and its dissipation (IDEMIX) to replace the often assumed constant background diffusivity in the ocean interior. We analyse in particular the effects of IDEMIX on the ocean mean state, when combined with TKE (TKE+IDEMIX). In general, we find little sensitivity of the ocean surface, but considerable effects for the interior ocean. Overall, we cannot classify any scheme as superior, because they modify biases that vary by region or variable, but produce a similar pattern on the global scale. However, using a more realistic and energetically consistent scheme (TKE+IDEMIX) produces a more heterogeneous pattern of vertical diffusion, with lower diffusivity in deep and flat-bottom basins and elevated turbulence over rough topography. In addition, TKE+IDEMIX improves the circulation in the Nordic Seas and Fram Strait, thus reducing the warm bias of the Atlantic water (AW) layer in the Arctic Ocean to a similar extent as has been demonstrated with eddy-resolving ocean models. We conclude that although shortcomings due to model resolution determine the global-scale bias pattern, the choice of the vertical mixing scheme may play an important role for regional biases.

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