Space and Time Characteristics of Droughts in Kabul River Basin.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadeem Tariq ◽  
Akif Rahim ◽  
Farhan Aziz ◽  
Muhammad Yousaf
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Kabul River

<p>Drought is a complex and less understandable natural phenomenon. Historical characteristics of droughts helps to understand the dynamics of the regional drought patterns. Numerous studies have predicted that the Chitral-Kabul River Basin (CKRB) is prone poses to serious threat due to global warming. This may endanger 10 million in habitants. The aim of this study is to revisit the characteristics of droughts in Kabul watershed, shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan. The monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) grided data (0.5<sup>o</sup> 0.5<sup>o</sup>) generated by climate research unit (CRU)version 4 has been used for study during the period 1901–2018. The four characteristics features i.e.  Areal extend, Frequency, Duration and Severity has been studied on spatial and temporal scale. The results show that the Kabul Basin has experienced an increasing extent of severe drought between 1940 and 1960, which increased further after the year 2000. The frequency of drought events in the northern part of the basin is much higher than in the southern part of the basin. Whereas the duration of the drought shows a declining trend in the northern part of the basin. The southern and western parts of the basin experienced a growing trend in the severity drought. At the same time, the incidence of consecutive droughts in the Kabul River basin has also increased. This study suggests that dry conditions in Kabul river basin have been enhanced in recent years. Overall, this study confirms the importance of SPEI for assessing the effects of regional drought.</p><p><strong>Keywords: Drought analysis, Frequency, Severity, Duration, Kabul river basin</strong></p>

scholarly journals Copula-Based Drought Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: A Case Study in the Yellow River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Wang ◽  
Zongmin Wang ◽  
Haibo Yang ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Zezhong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

Drought is a complex natural phenomenon that occurs throughout the world. Analyzing and grasping the occurrence and development of drought events is of great practical significance for preventing drought disasters. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was adopted as a drought index to quantitatively analyze the temporal evolution, spatial distribution, and gridded trend characteristics of drought in the Yellow River basin (YRB) during 1961–2015. The duration and severity of drought events were extracted based on run theory, and the best-fitted Copula models were used to combine the drought duration and severity to analyze the drought return period. The results indicated that: (1) the drought showed a non-significant upward trend in the YRB from 1961 to 2015, and drought events became more serious after the 1990s; (2) the month and season with the most serious drought was June and summer, with an average SPEI value of −0.94 and −0.70; (3) the seasons with an increasing drought trend were spring, summer, and autumn; (4) the most serious drought lasted for 16 months in the YRB, with drought severity of 12.44 and drought return period of 115.18 years; and (5) Frank-copula was found to be the best-fitted one in the YRB. The research results can reveal the evolution characteristics of drought, and provide reference and basis for drought resistance and reduction in the YRB.

scholarly journals Drought or Wet Assessment of Daily Rainfall Pattern of the Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal: Standardized Precipitation Index Approach using Probabilistic Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 57-72
Author(s):  
Rajendra Man Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Rainfall Pattern ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Chi Square

Background: Rainfall is a natural phenomenon. Dramatic changes in the rainfall pattern lead to extreme climatic or hydrological events like flash floods, or floods, landslides or severe drought events at any parts of the world. Objective: The objective of this study aims to perform analysis of drought/ wet for fifteen meteorological /hydrological stations distributed over the Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal. Materials and Methods: The Kolmogorov-Simonov test, Anderson-Darling test and Chi-square test are used for testing of the hypothesis of goodness of fit supported by the q-q plot (or p-p plot), cumulative distribution function plot and probability density function plot. The standardized precipitation index is a widely used to develop the index to monitor the dryness/wetness in a given day. Results: Johnson SB distribution and Weibull distribution were fitted to the daily rainfall across the fifteen stations. Conclusion: There were some episodes of moderate drought events across six stations. Similarly, there were a moderate type of wetness across five stations. The rest of the stations had a majority of near normal days out of 13514 days. Supplementary Material avialable here https://doi.org/10.3126/njs.v4i0.33499

Economical exposition to drought events (1980-2001)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chloé Meyer
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
East Anglia ◽  
Gis Modeling ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Year 2000

Estimation of the annual economical exposition to drought based on Standardized Precipitation Index. It is based on three sources: 1) A global monthly gridded precipitation dataset obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Anglia). 2) A GIS modeling of global Standardized Precipitation Index based on Brad Lyon (IRI, Columbia University) methodology. 3) A Global Domestic Product grid for the year 2010, provided by the World Bank. Unit is expected average annual GDP (2007 as the year of reference) exposed in (US $, year 2000 equivalent). For more information, visit: http://preview.grid.unep.ch/ Cost Drought Exposure Risk

scholarly journals Investigating the Spatio-Temporal Variation of Soil Moisture and Agricultural Drought towards Supporting Water Resources Management in the Red River Basin of Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4926
Author(s):  
Nguyen Duc Luong ◽  
Nguyen Hoang Hiep ◽  
Thi Hieu Bui
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Red River ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Red River Basin ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The increasing serious droughts recently might have significant impacts on socioeconomic development in the Red River basin (RRB). This study applied the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to investigate spatio-temporal dynamics of soil moisture in the northeast, northwest, and Red River Delta (RRD) regions of the RRB part belongs to territory of Vietnam. The soil moisture dataset simulated for 10 years (2005–2014) was utilized to establish the soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI) for assessing intensity of agricultural drought. Soil moisture appeared to co-vary with precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration, and various features of land cover, topography, and soil type in three regions of the RRB. SMAPI analysis revealed that more areas in the northeast experienced severe droughts compared to those in other regions, especially in the dry season and transitional months. Meanwhile, the northwest mainly suffered from mild drought and a slightly wet condition during the dry season. Different from that, the RRD mainly had moderately to very wet conditions throughout the year. The areas of both agricultural and forested lands associated with severe drought in the dry season were larger than those in the wet season. Generally, VIC-based soil moisture approach offered a feasible solution for improving soil moisture and agricultural drought monitoring capabilities at the regional scale.

Projection of Future Drought Characteristics under Multiple Drought Indices

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1238
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Khan ◽  
Xingye Zhu ◽  
Xiaoping Jiang ◽  
Qaisar Saddique ◽  
Muhammad Saifullah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Series Data ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Songhua River ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Drought is a natural phenomenon caused by the variability of climate. This study was conducted in the Songhua River Basin of China. The drought events were estimated by using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which are based on precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. Furthermore, drought characteristics were identified for the assessment of drought trends in the study area. Short term (3 months) and long term (12 months) projected meteorological droughts were identified by using these drought indices. Future climate precipitation and temperature time series data (2021–2099) of various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were estimated by using outputs of the Global Circulation Model downscaled with a statistical methodology. The results showed that RCP 4.5 have a greater number of moderate drought events as compared to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Moreover, it was also noted that RCP 8.5 (40 events) and RCP 4.5 (38 events) showed a higher number of severe droughts on 12-month drought analysis in the study area. A severe drought conditions projected between 2073 and 2076 with drought severity (DS-1.66) and drought intensity (DI-0.42) while extreme drying trends were projected between 2097 and 2099 with drought severity (DS-1.85) and drought intensity (DI-0.62). It was also observed that Precipitation Decile predicted a greater number of years under deficit conditions under RCP 2.6. Overall results revealed that more severe droughts are expected to occur during the late phase (2050–2099) by using RDI and SPI. A comparative analysis of 3- and 12-month drying trends showed that RDI is prevailing during the 12-month drought analysis while almost both drought indices (RDI and SPI) indicated same behavior of drought identification at 3-month drought analysis between 2021 and 2099 in the research area. The results of study will help to evaluate the risk of future drought in the study area and be beneficial for the researcher to make an appropriate mitigation strategy.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Management with Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics in the Kabul River Basin

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1513
Author(s):  
Yar M. Taraky ◽  
Yongbo Liu ◽  
Ed McBean ◽  
Prasad Daggupati ◽  
Bahram Gharabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Transboundary Water ◽  
Transboundary Water Management ◽  
Kabul River

The Kabul River, while having its origin in Afghanistan, has a primary tributary, the Konar River, which originates in Pakistan and enters Afghanistan near Barikot-Arandu. The Kabul River then re-enters Pakistan near Laalpur, Afghanistan making it a true transboundary river. The catastrophic flood events due to major snowmelt events in the Hindu Kush mountains occur every other year, inundating many major urban centers. This study investigates the flood risk under 30 climate and dam management scenarios to assess opportunities for transboundary water management strategy in the Kabul River Basin (KRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed-scale hydraulic modeling tool that was employed to forecast peak flows to characterize flood inundation areas using the river flood routing modelling tool Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System -HEC-RAS for the Nowshera region. This study shows how integrated transboundary water management in the KRB can play a vital catalyst role with significant socio-economic benefits for both nations. The study proposes a KRB-specific agreement, where flood risk management is a significant driver that can bring both countries to work together under the Equitable Water Resource Utilization Doctrine to save lives in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The findings show that flood mitigation relying on collaborative efforts for both upstream and downstream riparian states is highly desirable.

scholarly journals Multi-Criteria Performance Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Products in Data-Sparse Regions

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1597
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Mohammed Lawal ◽  
Douglas Bertram ◽  
Christopher John White ◽  
Ahmad Hussaini Jagaba ◽  
Ibrahim Hassan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Princeton University ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Inadequate climate data stations often make hydrological modelling a rather challenging task in data-sparse regions. Gridded climate data can be used as an alternative; however, their accuracy in replicating the climatology of the region of interest with low levels of uncertainty is important to water resource planning. This study utilised several performance metrics and multi-criteria decision making to assess the performance of the widely used gridded precipitation and temperature data against quality-controlled observed station records in the Lake Chad basin. The study’s findings reveal that the products differ in their quality across the selected performance metrics, although they are especially promising with regards to temperature. However, there are some inherent weaknesses in replicating the observed station data. Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing precipitation showed the worst performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.13–0.50, a mean modified index of agreement of 0.68, and a similarity coefficient SU = 0.365, relative to other products with satisfactory performance across all stations. There were varying degrees of mismatch in unidirectional precipitation and temperature trends, although they were satisfactory in replicating the hydro-climatic information with a low level of uncertainty. Assessment based on multi-criteria decision making revealed that the Climate Research Unit, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Centre precipitation data and the Climate Research Unit and Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing temperature data exhibit better performance in terms of similarity, and are recommended for application in hydrological impact studies—especially in the quantification of projected climate hazards and vulnerabilities for better water policy decision making in the Lake Chad basin.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document