Health-relevant, concurrent ground-level ozone and temperature events in recent and future European climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Jahn ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
European Climate

<p>Temperature extremes like hot days or prolonged episodes of high air temperature like heat waves can cause adverse human health effects. Heat-related mortality only represents the extreme end of a variety of possible health outcomes like heat exhaustion or heat stroke.</p><p>Exposure to ground-level ozone provokes negative impacts on human health primarily affecting the cardio-pulmonary system causing respiratory or cardiovascular diseases. These diseases include, but are not limited to, lung inflammation and tissue damage, asthma, heart attacks or heart failure.</p><p>High levels of ozone and temperature often coincide due to the underlying ozone formation characteristics. As synergistic effects lead to a risk beyond the sum of their individual effects, the co-occurrence of elevated levels of air temperature and ground-level ozone concentrations represents an even intensified human health risk.</p><p>The current contribution deals with statistical models and analysis of the interplay between large-scale meteorological and synoptic conditions, prevailing air pollution levels and combined ozone and temperature events under present and future climatic conditions. In this context, meteorological mechanisms representing main drivers of these concurrent ozone and temperature events were identified. Large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and their relationships with ground-level ozone and temperature conditions were evaluated.</p><p>The methodological focus was primary on statistical modeling approaches and different machine learning methods. Self-Organizing Maps, an artificial neural network algorithm based on unsupervised machine learning, were used to classify synoptic types based on daily mean sea level pressure reanalysis data. The resulting synoptic types were evaluated with regard to the European ozone and temperature characteristics in order to identify types associated with high ozone and temperature. Regression analyses with e.g. shrinking methods were used to identify main predictors for concurrent ozone and temperature events. Due to data availability and research foci, two varying time windows from 1993 to 2012 as well as from 2004 to 2018 were used within the study. The European area built the regional focus.</p><p>Anthropogenic-induced global climate change affects not only mean but also extreme temperatures as well as associated ground-level ozone concentrations due to changing synoptic circulation and chemical environment conditions. Future frequency changes of concurrent ozone and temperature events were evaluated exemplarily for Central Europe. Statistical downscaling projections until the end of the twenty-first century were assessed by using the output of seven models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). A sharp increase was projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario assumptions. Respective multi-model mean changes amounted to 8.94% and 16.84% as well as 13.33% and 37.52% for mid- (2031–2050) and late-century (2081–2100) European climate, respectively (Jahn and Hertig 2020). Hotspot regions with more frequent occurrences of these combined events in Central Europe were identified for which, due to their associated individual and combined health effects, a higher future vulnerability can be expected.</p>

scholarly journals Current and future occurrences of health-relevant, compound heat and ozone pollution events in six European ozone-temperature regions 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Jahn ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Elevated Ozone

<p>Air pollution and heat events present two major health risks, both already independently posing a significant threat to human health and life. High levels of ground-level ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and air temperature often coincide due to the underlying physical relationships between both variables. The most severe health outcome is in general associated with the co-occurrence of both hazards (e.g. Hertig et al. 2020), since concurrent elevated levels of temperature and ozone concentrations represent a twofold exposure and can lead to a risk beyond the sum of the individual effects. Consequently, in the current contribution, a compound approach considering both hazards simultaneously as so-called ozone-temperature (o-t-)events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe.</p><p>Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying synoptic and meteorological drivers with one or both of these health stressors as well as the correlation between both variables vary with the location of sites and seasons (e.g. Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). Therefore, a hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to objectively divide the study domain in regions of homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics (o-t-regions). Statistical models to assess the synoptic and large-scale meteorological mechanisms which represent main drivers of concurrent o-t-events are developed for each identified o-t-region.</p><p>Compound elevated ozone concentration and air temperature events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change in many parts of Europe (e.g. Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Statistical projections of potential frequency shifts of compound o-t-events until the end of the twenty-first century are assessed using the output of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).</p><p><em>Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z</em></p><p><em>Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271</em></p><p><em>Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health‐relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869‐020‐009610</em></p><p><em>Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005</em></p>

Compound heat and ozone pollution events relevant for human health

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elke Hertig ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Ricardo Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
South Europe

<p>Temperature extremes and air pollution pose a significant threat to human health. A specific concern applies to heat events and elevated ground-level ozone concentrations, due to the physical relationships between these variables, the single and combined effects of both variables on human health and the anticipated substantial changes in the scope of climate change.</p><p>The present contribution addresses relationships between air temperature and ground-level ozone, the association of these variables with atmospheric circulation patterns, the anticipated changes under future climate change as well as their association with human morbidity (i.e. myocardial infarction frequencies, Hertig et al. 2019) and mortality. The focus is on two climatically different regions in Europe, i.e., Bavaria (Central Europe) and Portugal (South Europe).</p><p>In general, a strong relationship between air temperature and ozone formation became evident. Due to the non-linear nature of the relationship, higher temperatures usually led to substantially enhanced ozone concentrations. In the scope of climate change, considerable increases of maximum temperatures were assessed for Bavaria until the end of the century. Also, future ozone concentrations were projected to rise (Hertig 2020). With respect to spell-length related extremes (heat waves and/ or ozone pollution waves), heat waves were identified as the most frequent wave type for the two European regions under investigation. Waves were associated with in-situ built-up as well as with advection of air masses. Despite different climate settings, a comparable exposure to heat and ozone waves was found in Central and South Europe. In view of excess mortality, the most severe impacts were always associated with compound heat-ozone waves (Hertig et al. 2020).</p><p>Research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under project number 408057478.</p><p>Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020): Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271</p><p>Hertig, E. (2020): Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z</p><p>Hertig, E., Schneider, A., Peters, A., von Scheidt, W., Kuch, B., Meisinger, Ch. (2019): Association of ground-level ozone, meteorological factors and weather types with daily myocardial infarction frequencies in Augsburg, Southern Germany. Atmos. Environment. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.116975</p>

Considerations on Ambient Levels of Ozone Concentrations and Relationship with NOx in an Urban Environment

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 824-829
Author(s):  
Cornel Ianache ◽  
Laurentiu Predescu ◽  
Mirela Predescu ◽  
Dumitru Dumitru
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Oxides ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Distinct Pattern ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Monitoring Site ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations

The serious air pollution problem has determined public concerns, worldwide. One of the main challenges for countries all over the world is caused by the elevated levels of ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations and its anthropogenic precursors. Ploiesti city, as one of the major urban area of Romania, is facing the same situation. This research aims to investigate spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of O3 in relationship with nitrogen oxides (NOx) using statistical analysis methods. Hourly O3 and NOx measurements were collected during 2014 year in Ploiesti. The results obtained showed that the ozone spatial distribution was non-normal for each month in 2014. The diurnal cycle of ground-level ozone concentrations showed a mid-day peak, while NOx diurnal variations presented 2 daily peaks, one in the morning (7:00 a.m.) and one in the afternoon (between 5:00 and 7:00 p.m.). In addition, it was observed a distinct pattern of weekly variations for O3 and NOx. Like in many other urban areas, the results indicated the presence of the �ozone weekend effect� in Ploiesti during the 2014 year, ozone concentrations being slightly higher on weekends compared to weekdays. For the same monitoring site, the nitrogen oxides were less prevalent on Saturdays and Sundays, probably due to reducing of road traffic and other pollution-generating activities on weekends than during the week.

scholarly journals Spatial–Temporal Distribution Variation of Ground-Level Ozone in China’s Pearl River Delta Metropolitan Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 872
Author(s):  
An Zhang ◽  
Jinhuang Lin ◽  
Wenhui Chen ◽  
Mingshui Lin ◽  
Chengcheng Lei
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
The North

Long-term exposure to ozone pollution will cause severe threats to residents’ physical and mental health. Ground-level ozone is the most severe air pollutant in China’s Pearl River Delta Metropolitan Region (PRD). It is of great significance to accurately reveal the spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of ozone pollution exposure patterns. We used the daily maximum 8-h ozone concentration data from PRD’s 55 air quality monitoring stations in 2015 as input data. We used six models of STK and ordinary kriging (OK) for the simulation of ozone concentration. Then we chose a better ozone pollution prediction model to reveal the ozone exposure characteristics of the PRD in 2015. The results show that the Bilonick model (BM) model had the highest simulation precision for ozone in the six models for spatial–temporal kriging (STK) interpolation, and the STK model’s simulation prediction results are significantly better than the OK model. The annual average ozone concentrations in the PRD during 2015 showed a high spatial variation in the north and east and low in the south and west. Ozone concentrations were relatively high in summer and autumn and low in winter and spring. The center of gravity of ozone concentrations tended to migrate to the north and west before moving to the south and then finally migrating to the east. The ozone’s spatial autocorrelation was significant and showed a significant positive correlation, mainly showing high-high clustering and low-low clustering. The type of clustering undergoes temporal migration and conversion over the four seasons, with spatial autocorrelation during winter the most significant.

scholarly journals Statistical evaluation of ozone concentrations on open plots in a submountain beech ecosystem in the Western Carpathians Mts.

Beskydy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
Daniela Kellerová ◽  
Rastislav Janík
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Statistical Evaluation ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Carpathian Region ◽  
Beech Stand ◽  
Research Period

The research was conducted on two plots without forest cover situated in the Štiavnické vrchy (A) Mts and in the Kremnické vrchy (B) Mts (Western Carpathian region) and a plot covered with several-year-old naturally regenerated beech stand (C) in the Kremnické vrchy Mts. The highest average value of 71 µg m-3 was recorded in 2007 for all plots; the lowest one was 45 µg m-3 recorded in 2009. Maximum values of ground level ozone concentrations ranging from 124 to 144 µg m-3 were recorded in spring 2008 on all study plots. The values were displaying fairly high variability over the whore research period, with minima in years 2007 and 2008 on the plot covered with forest stand at the time. Statistically significant differences were distinct especially between the years 2007 and 2009.

scholarly journals The impacts of precursor reduction and meteorology on ground-level ozone in the Greater Toronto Area

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 8197-8207 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. Pugliese ◽  
J. G. Murphy ◽  
J. A. Geddes ◽  
J. M. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Health Hazard ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Greater Toronto Area ◽  
High Solar Radiation ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Human Health Hazard ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a major component of photochemical smog and is a known human health hazard, as well as a damaging factor for vegetation. Its precursor compounds, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), have a variety of anthropogenic and biogenic sources and exhibit non-linear effects on ozone production. As an update to previous studies on ground-level ozone in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), we present an analysis of NO2, VOC and O3 data from federal and provincial governmental monitoring sites in the GTA from 2000 to 2012. We show that, over the study period, summertime 24 h VOC reactivity and NO2 midday (11:00–15:00) concentrations at all sites decreased significantly; since 2000, all sites experienced a decrease in NO2 of 28–62% and in measured VOC reactivity of at least 53–71%. Comparing 2002–2003 to 2011–2012, the summed reactivity of OH towards NO2 and a suite of measured VOCs decreased from 8.6 to 4.6 s−1. Ratios of reactive VOC pairs indicate that the effective OH concentration experienced by primary pollutants in the GTA has increased significantly over the study period. Despite the continuous decrease in precursor levels, ozone concentrations are not following the same pattern at all stations; it was found that the Canada-wide Standard for ozone continues to be exceeded at all monitoring stations. Additionally, while the years 2008–2011 had consistently lower ozone levels than previous years, 2012 experienced one of the highest recorded summertime ozone concentrations and a large number of smog episodes. We demonstrate that these high ozone observations in 2012 may be a result of the number of days with high solar radiation, the number of stagnant periods and the transport of high ozone levels from upwind regions.

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