Influence of ENSO on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry-ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ohad Harari ◽  
Chaim garfinkel ◽  
Shlomi Ziskin
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Tropical Troposphere ◽  
Cold Point

<p>The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, El Niño Southern<br>Oscillation (ENSO), and entry of stratospheric water vapor, is analyzed in a set of the model simulations archived for the<br>Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the<br>models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models also agree<br> on the zonal structure of the response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor with consensus<br>is that La Niña leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Niño and for other seasons there are significant<br>differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Niña in the winter of the<br>event reverses in spring and summer, other models find that this moistening persists, while some show a nonlinear response<br>with both El Niño and La Niña leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. A moistening in the spring<br> following El Niño events, perhaps the strongest signal in observations, is simulated by only half of the models. Focusing on<br>Central Pacific ENSO versus East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere as compared to temperatures near the<br>surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the<br>cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is<br>too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of interannual<br>variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to biased cold point temperatures in some models, but others appear to<br>be missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability near the cold point</p>

Understanding the Changes of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Coupled Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (10) ◽  
pp. 3278-3291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Oman ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh ◽  
Steven Pawson ◽  
Richard S. Stolarski ◽  
J. Eric Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
Methane Concentrations

Past and future climate simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM), with specified boundary conditions for sea surface temperature, sea ice, and trace gas emissions, have been analyzed to assess trends and possible causes of changes in stratospheric water vapor. The simulated distribution of stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s compares well with observations. Changes in the cold point temperatures near the tropical tropopause can explain differences in entry stratospheric water vapor. The average saturation mixing ratio of a 20° latitude by 15° longitude region surrounding the minimum tropical saturation mixing ratio is shown to be a useful diagnostic for entry stratospheric water vapor and does an excellent job reconstructing the annual average entry stratospheric water vapor over the period 1950–2100. The simulated stratospheric water vapor increases over the 50 yr between 1950 and 2000, primarily because of changes in methane concentrations, offset by a slight decrease in tropical cold point temperatures. Stratospheric water vapor is predicted to continue to increase over the twenty-first century, with increasing methane concentrations causing the majority of the trend to midcentury. Small increases in cold point temperature cause increases in the entry water vapor throughout the twenty-first century. The increasing trend in future water vapor is tempered by a decreasing contribution of methane oxidation owing to cooling stratospheric temperatures and by increased tropical upwelling, leading to a near-zero trend for the last 30 yr of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 3725-3740
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Ohad Harari ◽  
Shlomi Ziskin Ziv ◽  
Jian Rao ◽  
Olaf Morgenstern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Tropical Troposphere ◽  
Cold Point

Abstract. The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the entry of stratospheric water vapor is analyzed in a set of model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models and observations also agree on the zonal structure of the temperature response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor response with consensus in both models and observations is that La Niña leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Niño and for other seasons, there are significant differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Niña in the winter of the event reverses in spring and summer, some models find that this moistening persists, and some show a nonlinear response, with both El Niño and La Niña leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. A moistening in the spring following El Niño events, the signal focused on in much previous work, is simulated by only half of the models. Focusing on Central Pacific ENSO vs. East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere compared with temperatures near the surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of the interannual variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to biased cold-point temperatures in some models, but others appear to be missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability near the cold point.

scholarly journals Influence of ENSO on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry-ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim Israel Garfinkel ◽  
Ohad Harari ◽  
Shlomi Ziskin ◽  
Jian Rao ◽  
Olaf Morgenstern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Tropical Troposphere ◽  
Cold Point

Abstract. The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and entry of stratospheric water vapor, is analyzed in a set of the model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models also agree on the zonal structure of the response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor with consensus is that La Nina leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Nino and for other seasons there are significant differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Nina in the winter of the event reverses in spring and summer, other models find that this moistening persists, while some show a nonlinear response with both El Nino and La Nina leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. Focusing on Central Pacific ENSO versus East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere as compared to temperatures near the surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of interannual variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability in cold point temperatures.

scholarly journals Impacts of Ozone Changes in the Tropopause Layer on Stratospheric Water Vapor

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 291
Author(s):  
Jinpeng Lu ◽  
Fei Xie ◽  
Hongying Tian ◽  
Jiali Luo
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tropopause Temperature

Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) changes play an important role in regulating global climate change, and its variations are controlled by tropopause temperature. This study estimates the impacts of tropopause layer ozone changes on tropopause temperature by radiative process and further influences on lower stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). It is found that a 10% depletion in global (mid-low and polar latitudes) tropopause layer ozone causes a significant cooling of the tropical cold-point tropopause with a maximum cooling of 0.3 K, and a corresponding reduction in LSWV with a maximum value of 0.06 ppmv. The depletion of tropopause layer ozone at mid-low latitudes results in cooling of the tropical cold-point tropopause by radiative processes and a corresponding LSWV reduction. However, the effect of polar tropopause layer ozone depletion on tropical cold-point tropopause temperature and LSWV is opposite to and weaker than the effect of tropopause layer ozone depletion at mid-low latitudes. Finally, the joint effect of tropopause layer ozone depletion (at mid-low and polar latitudes) causes a negative cold-point tropopause temperature and a decreased tropical LSWV. Conversely, the impact of a 10% increase in global tropopause layer ozone on LSWV is exactly the opposite of the impact of ozone depletion. After 2000, tropopause layer ozone decreased at mid-low latitudes and increased at high latitudes. These tropopause layer ozone changes at different latitudes cause joint cooling in the tropical cold-point tropopause and a reduction in LSWV. Clarifying the impacts of tropopause layer ozone changes on LSWV clearly is important for understanding and predicting SWV changes in the context of future global ozone recovery.

scholarly journals Impact of convectively lofted ice on the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xun Wang ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler ◽  
Mark R. Schoeberl ◽  
Wandi Yu ◽  
Tao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Asian Monsoon Region ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Trajectory Model ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Important Region

Abstract. We use a forward Lagrangian trajectory model to diagnose mechanisms that produce the tropical lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor seasonal cycle observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and reproduced by the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We confirm in both the MLS and GEOSCCM that the seasonal cycle of water vapor is primarily determined by the seasonal cycle of TTL temperatures. However, we find that the seasonal cycle of temperature predicts a smaller seasonal cycle of LS water vapor between 10° N–40° N than observed by MLS. We show that including evaporation of convectively lofted ice in the trajectory model increases the simulated maximum value in the 10° N–40° N water vapor seasonal cycle by 1.9 ppmv (47 %) and increases the seasonal amplitude by 1.26 ppmv (123 %), which improves the prediction of LS water vapor annual cycle. We conclude that the moistening effect from convective ice evaporation in the TTL plays a key role regulating and maintaining the tropical LS water vapor seasonal cycle. Most of the convective moistening in the 10° N–40° N range comes from convective ice evaporation occurring at the same latitudes. A small contribution to the moistening comes from convective ice evaporation occurring between 10° S–10° N. Within 10° N–40° N, the Asian monsoon region is the most important region for convective ice evaporation and convective moistening during boreal summer and autumn.

scholarly journals The impact of temperature vertical structure on trajectory modeling of stratospheric water vapor

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 3517-3526 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Wang ◽  
A. E. Dessler ◽  
M. R. Schoeberl ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
J.-E. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract. Lagrangian trajectories driven by reanalysis meteorological fields are frequently used to study water vapor (H2O) in the stratosphere, in which the tropical cold-point temperatures regulate the amount of H2O entering the stratosphere. Therefore, the accuracy of temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is of great importance for understanding stratospheric H2O abundances. Currently, most reanalyses, such as the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective – analysis for Research and Applications), only provide temperatures with ~ 1.2 km vertical resolution in the TTL, which has been argued to miss finer vertical structure in the tropopause and therefore introduce uncertainties in our understanding of stratospheric H2O. In this paper, we quantify this uncertainty by comparing the Lagrangian trajectory prediction of H2O using MERRA temperatures on standard model levels (traj.MER-T) to those using GPS temperatures at finer vertical resolution (traj.GPS-T), and those using adjusted MERRA temperatures with finer vertical structures induced by waves (traj.MER-Twave). It turns out that by using temperatures with finer vertical structure in the tropopause, the trajectory model more realistically simulates the dehydration of air entering the stratosphere. But the effect on H2O abundances is relatively minor: compared with traj.MER-T, traj.GPS-T tends to dry air by ~ 0.1 ppmv, while traj.MER-Twave tends to dry air by 0.2–0.3 ppmv. Despite these differences in absolute values of predicted H2O and vertical dehydration patterns, there is virtually no difference in the interannual variability in different runs. Overall, we find that a tropopause temperature with finer vertical structure has limited impact on predicted stratospheric H2O.

scholarly journals Interannual Variations of Stratospheric Water Vapor in MLS Observations and Climate Model Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (11) ◽  
pp. 4072-4085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshio Kawatani ◽  
Jae N. Lee ◽  
Kevin Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Interannual Fluctuations

Abstract By analyzing the almost-decade-long record of water vapor measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the NASA Aura satellite and by detailed diagnostic analysis of the results from state-of-the art climate model simulations, this study confirmed the conceptual picture of the interannual variation in equatorial stratospheric water vapor discussed in earlier papers (e.g., Geller et al.). The interannual anomalies in water vapor are strongly related to the dynamical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and this study presents the first QBO composite of the time–height structure of the equatorial water vapor anomalies. The anomalies display upward propagation below about 10 hPa in a manner analogous to the annual “tape recorder” effect, but at higher levels they show clear downward propagation. This study examined these variations in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)-AGCM and in four models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that simulate realistic QBOs. Diagnostic budget analysis of the MIROC-AGCM data and comparisons among the CMIP5 model results demonstrate (i) the importance of temperature anomalies at the tropopause induced by the QBO for lower-stratospheric water vapor variations and (ii) that upper-stratospheric water vapor anomalies are largely driven by advection of the mean vertical gradient of water content by the QBO interannual fluctuations in the vertical wind.

scholarly journals The Tropical Tropopause Layer 1960–2100

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1621-1637 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gettelman ◽  
T. Birner ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Basic Structure ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Cold Point

Abstract. The representation of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) in 13 different Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) designed to represent the stratosphere is analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 and 1980–2100 are analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 are compared to reanalysis model output. CCMs are able to reproduce the basic structure of the TTL. There is a large (10 K) spread in annual mean tropical cold point tropopause temperatures. CCMs are able to reproduce historical trends in tropopause pressure obtained from reanalysis products. Simulated historical trends in cold point tropopause temperatures are not consistent across models or reanalyses. The pressure of both the tropical tropopause and the level of main convective outflow appear to have decreased (increased altitude) in historical runs as well as in reanalyses. Decreasing pressure trends in the tropical tropopause and level of main convective outflow are also seen in the future. Models consistently predict decreasing tropopause and convective outflow pressure, by several hPa/decade. Tropical cold point temperatures are projected to increase by 0.09 K/decade. Tropopause anomalies are highly correlated with tropical surface temperature anomalies and with tropopause level ozone anomalies, less so with stratospheric temperature anomalies. Simulated stratospheric water vapor at 90 hPa increases by up to 0.5–1 ppmv by 2100. The result is consistent with the simulated increase in temperature, highlighting the correlation of tropopause temperatures with stratospheric water vapor.

scholarly journals Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (20) ◽  
pp. 12743-12778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean M. Davis ◽  
Michaela I. Hegglin ◽  
Masatomo Fujiwara ◽  
Rossana Dragani ◽  
Yayoi Harada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Weak Constraints ◽  
The Vertical Distribution

Abstract. Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

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