Improving heavy precipitation forecasting over the western Mediterranean: Benefits of stochastic techniques for model error sampling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hermoso ◽  
Victor Homar ◽  
Robert Plant
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations

<p>The western Mediterranean region is frequently disrupted by heavy precipitation and flash flood episodes. Designing convection-permitting ensembles capable of accurately forecasting socially relevant aspects of these natural hazards such as timing, location, and intensity at basin scales of the order of a few hundred of squared kilometers is an extremely challenging effort. The usual forecast underdispersion prevailing at these scales motivates the research of sampling methodologies which are able to provide an adequate representation of the uncertainties in the initial atmospheric state and its time-integration by means of numerical models. This work investigates the skill of multiple techniques to sample model uncertainty in the context of heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean. The performance of multiple stochastic schemes is analyzed for a singular event occurred on 12 and 13 September 2019 in València, Murcia, and Almería (eastern Spain). This remarkable and enlightening episode caused seven casualties, the flooding of hundreds of homes and economic exceeding 425 million EUR.</p><p>Stochastic methods are compared to the popular multiphysics strategy in terms of both diversity and skill. The considered techniques include stochastic parameterization perturbation tendencies of state variables and perturbations to specific and influential parameters within the microphysics scheme (cloud condensation nuclei, fall speed factors, saturation percentage for cloud formation). The introduction of stochastic perturbations to the microphysics parameters results in an increased ensemble spread throughout the entire simulation. A conclusion of special relevance for the western Mediterranean, where local topography and deep moist convection play an essential role, is that stochastic methods significantly outperform the multiphysics-based ensemble, indicating a clear potential of stochastic parameterizations for the short-range forecast of high-impact events in the region.</p>

The sequence of heavy precipitation and flash flooding of 12 and 13 September 2019 in eastern Spain. Part II: A hydro-meteorological predictability analysis based on convection-permitting ensemble strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Amengual ◽  
A. Hermoso ◽  
D. S. Carrió ◽  
V. Homar
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
Flood Warning

AbstractOn 12 and 13 September 2019, widespread flash flooding caused devastating effects across eastern Spain. Within the framework of the HyMeX program, this study examines predictability of the long-lasting heavy precipitation episode (HPE) conducive to flash flooding. A set of short-range, convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is built to cope with different sources of meteorological uncertainty. Specifically, the performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter, tailored bred vectors and stochastic model parameterizations is compared to more standard ensemble generation techniques such as dynamical downscaling and multiple physics. Results indicate EPS focusing on sampling model uncertainties related to parameterization of subgrid process are skillful, especially when deep convection and its interaction with complex orography are important. Furthermore, representation of small-scale thermodynamical aspects is improved through data assimilation, leading to an enhanced forecasting skill as well. Nevertheless, predictability remains relatively low at the catchment scale in terms of exceedance probabilities in cumulative precipitation and peak discharge. The analysis presented herein could serve as a basis for the future implementation of real-time flash flood warning systems based on skillful meteorological EPSs over small-to-medium, semi-arid watersheds in eastern Spain and, by extension, over the flood-prone Western Mediterranean region.

scholarly journals A Convection Parameterization for Low-CAPE Environments

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (12) ◽  
pp. 4917-4941
Author(s):  
Ron McTaggart-Cowan ◽  
Paul A. Vaillancourt ◽  
Leo Separovic ◽  
Shawn Corvec ◽  
Ayrton Zadra
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Cumulus Convection ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Flux Parameterization ◽  
Convection Schemes ◽  
Convection Parameterization

AbstractNumerical models that are unable to resolve moist convection in the atmosphere employ physical parameterizations to represent the effects of the associated processes on the resolved-scale state. Most of these schemes are designed to represent the dominant class of cumulus convection that is driven by latent heat release in a conditionally unstable profile with a surplus of convective available potential energy (CAPE). However, an important subset of events occurs in low-CAPE environments in which potential and symmetric instabilities can sustain moist convective motions. Convection schemes that are dependent on the presence of CAPE are unable to depict accurately the effects of cumulus convection in these cases. A mass-flux parameterization is developed to represent such events, with triggering and closure components that are specifically designed to depict subgrid-scale convection in low-CAPE profiles. Case studies show that the scheme eliminates the “bull’s-eyes” in precipitation guidance that develop in the absence of parameterized convection, and that it can represent the initiation of elevated convection that organizes squall-line structure. The introduction of the parameterization leads to significant improvements in the quality of quantitative precipitation forecasts, including a large reduction in the frequency of spurious heavy-precipitation events predicted by the model. An evaluation of surface and upper-air guidance shows that the scheme systematically improves the model solution in the warm season, a result that suggests that the parameterization is capable of accurately representing the effects of moist convection in a range of low-CAPE environments.

scholarly journals Systematic errors analysis of heavy precipitating events prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Ponzano ◽  
Bruno Joly ◽  
Laurent Descamps ◽  
Philippe Arbogast
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Local Variation ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Parametrization Scheme ◽  
Errors Analysis

Abstract. The western Mediterranean region is prone to devastating flash-flood induced by heavy precipitation events (HPEs), which are responsible for considerable human and material damage. Quantitative precipitation forecasts have improved dramatically in recent years to produce realistic accumulated rainfall estimations. Nevertheless, challenging issues remain in reducing uncertainties in the initial conditions assimilation and the modeling of physical processes. In this study, the spatial errors resulting from a 30-year (1981–2010) ensemble hindcast which implement the same physical parametrizations as in the operational Météo-France short-range ensemble prediction system, Prévision d'Ensemble ARPEGE (PEARP), are analysed. The hindcast consists of a 10-member ensemble reforecast, run every 4-days, covering the period from September to December. 24-hour precipitation fields are classified in order to investigate the local variation of spatial properties and intensities of rainfall fields, with particular focus on the HPEs. The feature-based quality measure SAL is then performed on the model forecast and reference rainfall fields, which shows that both the amplitude and structure components are basically driven by the deep convection parametrization. Between the two main deep convection schemes used in PEARP, we qualify that the PCMT parametrization scheme performs better than the B85 scheme. A further analysis of spatial features of the rainfall objects to which the SAL metric pertains shows the predominance of large objects in the verification measure. It is for the most extreme events that the model has the best representation of the distribution of object integrated rain.

scholarly journals A Rational Numerical Method for Simulation of Drop-Impact Dynamics of Oleo-Pneumatic Landing Gear

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4136
Author(s):  
Rosario Pecora
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Method ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Impact Load ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Landing Gear ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Impact Dynamics ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Adopted Model ◽  
The Impact

Oleo-pneumatic landing gear is a complex mechanical system conceived to efficiently absorb and dissipate an aircraft’s kinetic energy at touchdown, thus reducing the impact load and acceleration transmitted to the airframe. Due to its significant influence on ground loads, this system is generally designed in parallel with the main structural components of the aircraft, such as the fuselage and wings. Robust numerical models for simulating landing gear impact dynamics are essential from the preliminary design stage in order to properly assess aircraft configuration and structural arrangements. Finite element (FE) analysis is a viable solution for supporting the design. However, regarding the oleo-pneumatic struts, FE-based simulation may become unpractical, since detailed models are required to obtain reliable results. Moreover, FE models could not be very versatile for accommodating the many design updates that usually occur at the beginning of the landing gear project or during the layout optimization process. In this work, a numerical method for simulating oleo-pneumatic landing gear drop dynamics is presented. To effectively support both the preliminary and advanced design of landing gear units, the proposed simulation approach rationally balances the level of sophistication of the adopted model with the need for accurate results. Although based on a formulation assuming only four state variables for the description of landing gear dynamics, the approach successfully accounts for all the relevant forces that arise during the drop and their influence on landing gear motion. A set of intercommunicating routines was implemented in MATLAB® environment to integrate the dynamic impact equations, starting from user-defined initial conditions and general parameters related to the geometric and structural configuration of the landing gear. The tool was then used to simulate a drop test of a reference landing gear, and the obtained results were successfully validated against available experimental data.

A Simple, Efficient Solution of Flux–Profile Relationships in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Pleim
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Iterative Solution ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Simple Scheme ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Stable Regime ◽  
Stability Functions ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Aerodynamic Roughness

Abstract This note describes a simple scheme for analytical estimation of the surface-layer similarity functions from state variables. What distinguishes this note from the many previous papers on this topic is that this method is specifically targeted for numerical models in which simplicity and economic execution are critical. In addition, it has been in use in a mesoscale meteorological model for several years. For stable conditions, a very simple scheme is presented that compares well to the iterative solution. The stable scheme includes a very stable regime in which the slope of the stability functions is reduced to permit significant fluxes to occur, which is particularly important for numerical models in which decoupling from the surface can be an important problem. For unstable conditions, simple schemes generalized for varying ratios of aerodynamic roughness to thermal roughness (z0/z0h) are less satisfactory. Therefore, a simple scheme has been empirically derived for a fixed z0/z0h ratio, which represents quasi-laminar sublayer resistance.

scholarly journals Atmospheric ionization and cloud radiative forcing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Svensmark ◽  
Jacob Svensmark ◽  
Martin Bødker Enghoff ◽  
Nir J. Shaviv
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Cloud Radiative Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Ionization

AbstractAtmospheric ionization produced by cosmic rays has been suspected to influence aerosols and clouds, but its actual importance has been questioned. If changes in atmospheric ionization have a substantial impact on clouds, one would expect to observe significant responses in Earth’s energy budget. Here it is shown that the average of the five strongest week-long decreases in atmospheric ionization coincides with changes in the average net radiative balance of 1.7 W/m$$^2$$ 2 (median value: 1.2 W/m$$^2$$ 2 ) using CERES satellite observations. Simultaneous satellite observations of clouds show that these variations are mainly caused by changes in the short-wave radiation of low liquid clouds along with small changes in the long-wave radiation, and are almost exclusively located over the pristine areas of the oceans. These observed radiation and cloud changes are consistent with a link in which atmospheric ionization modulates aerosol's formation and growth, which survive to cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately affect cloud formation and thereby temporarily the radiative balance of Earth.

scholarly journals Can the Impact of Aerosols on Deep Convection be Isolated from Meteorological Effects in Atmospheric Observations?

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (10) ◽  
pp. 3347-3363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech W. Grabowski
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Meteorological Effects

Influence of pollution on dynamics of deep convection continues to be a controversial topic. Arguably, only carefully designed numerical simulations can clearly separate the impact of aerosols from the effects of meteorological factors that affect moist convection. This paper argues that such a separation is virtually impossible using observations because of the insufficient accuracy of atmospheric measurements and the fundamental nature of the interaction between deep convection and its environment. To support this conjecture, results from numerical simulations are presented that apply modeling methodology previously developed by the author. The simulations consider small modifications, difficult to detect in observations, of the initial sounding, surface fluxes, and large-scale forcing tendencies. All these represent variations of meteorological conditions that affect deep convective dynamics independently of aerosols. The setup follows the case of daytime convective development over land based on observations during the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (LBA) field project in Amazonia. The simulated observable macroscopic changes of convection, such as the surface precipitation and upper-tropospheric cloudiness, are similar to or larger than those resulting from changes of cloud condensation nuclei from pristine to polluted conditions studied previously using the same modeling case. Observations from Phase III of the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) are also used to support the argument concerning the impact of the large-scale forcing. The simulations suggest that the aerosol impacts on dynamics of deep convection cannot be isolated from meteorological effects, at least for the daytime development of unorganized deep convection considered in this study.

Evaluating the conservation of energy variables in simulations of deep moist convection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Peters ◽  
Daniel R. Chavas
Keyword(s):  
Heat Capacity ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Conservation Of Energy ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
Hydrostatic Balance ◽  
Latent Heats

AbstractIt is often assumed in parcel theory calculations, numerical models, and cumulus parameterizations that moist static energy (MSE) is adiabatically conserved. However, the adiabatic conservation of MSE is only approximate because of the assumption of hydrostatic balance. Two alternative variables are evaluated here: MSE −IB and MSE +KE, wherein IB is the path integral of buoyancy (B) and KE is kinetic energy. Both of these variables relax the hydrostatic assumption and are more precisely conserved than MSE. This article quantifies the errors that result from assuming that the aforementioned variables are conserved in large eddy simulations (LES) of both disorganized and organized deep convection. Results show that both MSE −IB and MSE +KE better predict quantities along trajectories than MSE alone. MSE −IB is better conserved in isolated deep convection, whereas MSE −IB and MSE +KE perform comparably in squall line simulations. These results are explained by differences between the pressure perturbation behavior of squall lines and isolated convection. Errors in updraft B diagnoses are universally minimized when MSE−IB is assumed to be adiabatically conserved, but only when moisture dependencies of heat capacity and temperature dependency of latent heating are accounted for. When less accurate latent heat and heat capacity formulae were used, MSE−IB yielded poorer B predictions than MSE due to compensating errors. Our results suggest that various applications would benefit from using either MSE −IB or MSE +KE instead of MSE with properly formulated heat capacities and latent heats.

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