Biases in the Tropical Atlantic in Seasonal Forecast System GloSea5

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Collier ◽  
Jamie Kettleborough ◽  
Adam Scaife ◽  
Leon Hermanson ◽  
Philip Davis
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

<p>It is well known that climate models commonly show biases in the Tropical Atlantic including reduced cold tongue development in the boreal summer. This work investigates whether these biases are present in the Met Office Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) at seasonal lead times and the impact they have on teleconnections to the North Atlantic, a key area for forecasting for Northern Europe.</p><p>GloSea5 hindcasts covering the period 1993 – 2016 are analysed for winter and summer start dates and biases are calculated with comparison to ERA Interim for sea surface temperature, near surface winds and upper tropospheric winds, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) for Rainfall Rate. In contrast to fully developed climate model biases, enhanced cold tongue development is found in the summer months, and a general cold bias occurs in the SST in both winter and summer. This shows that biases in initialised forecasts do not simply asymptote to the climate model error but show more complex behaviour including a change in the sign of the bias. Easterly winds are found to be strengthened throughout and signs of a double Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are observed in the winter season. The ITCZ in both seasons is shown to be a narrower band of heavier rain in GloSea5 compared to the GPCP.  We investigate how these tropical biases propagate into the North Atlantic and change the forecast biases there.</p>

Extratropical Atmospheric Response to Equatorial Atlantic Cold Tongue Anomalies

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2076-2091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reindert J. Haarsma ◽  
Wilco Hazeleger
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Maximum Amplitude ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
The North ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The extratropical atmospheric response to the equatorial cold tongue mode in the Atlantic Ocean has been investigated with the coupled ocean–atmosphere model, Speedy Ocean (SPEEDO). Similar to the observations, the model simulates a lagged covariability between the equatorial cold tongue mode during late boreal summer and the east Atlantic pattern a few months later in early winter. The equatorial cold tongue mode attains its maximum amplitude during late boreal summer. However, only a few months later, when the ITCZ has moved southward, it is able to induce a significant upper-tropospheric divergence that is able to force a Rossby wave response. The lagged covariability is therefore the result of the persistence of the cold tongue anomaly and a favorable tropical atmospheric circulation a few months later. The Rossby wave energy is trapped in the South Asian subtropical jet and propagates circumglobally before it reaches the North Atlantic. Due to the local increase of the Hadley circulation, forced by the cold tongue anomaly, the subtropical jet over the North Atlantic is enhanced. The resulting increase in the vertical shear of the zonal wind increases the baroclinicity over the North Atlantic. This causes the nonlinear growth of the anomalies due to transient eddy feedbacks to be largest over the North Atlantic, resulting in an enhanced response over that region.

scholarly journals The Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Bergen Climate Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 2361-2375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliette Mignot ◽  
Claude Frankignoul
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The link between the interannual to interdecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the atmospheric forcing is investigated using 200 yr of a control simulation of the Bergen Climate Model, where the mean circulation cell is rather realistic, as is also the location of deep convection in the northern North Atlantic. The AMOC variability has a slightly red frequency spectrum and is primarily forced by the atmosphere. The maximum value of the AMOC is mostly sensitive to the deep convection in the Irminger Sea, which it lags by about 5 yr. The latter is mostly forced by a succession of atmospheric patterns that induce anomalous northerly winds over the area. The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas is represented realistically, but its influence on the AMOC is limited to the interannual time scale and is primarily associated with wind forcing. The tropical Pacific shows a strong variability in the model, with too strong an influence on the North Atlantic. However, its influence on the tropical Atlantic is realistic. Based on lagged correlations and the release of fictitious Lagrangian drifters, the tropical Pacific seems to influence the AMOC with a time lag of about 40 yr. The mechanism is as follows: El Niño events induce positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the tropical Atlantic that are advected northward, circulate in the subtropical gyre, and then subduct. In the ocean interior, part of the salinity anomaly is advected along the North Atlantic current, eventually reaching the Irminger and Labrador Seas after about 35 yr where they destabilize the water column and favor deep convection.

Preaching and Sermons

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Ellison
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Religious Revival ◽  
Early Nineteenth Century ◽  
Denominational Identity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Prompted by the convulsions of the late eighteenth century and inspired by the expansion of evangelicalism across the North Atlantic world, Protestant Dissenters from the 1790s eagerly subscribed to a millennial vision of a world transformed through missionary activism and religious revival. Voluntary societies proliferated in the early nineteenth century to spread the gospel and transform society at home and overseas. In doing so, they engaged many thousands of converts who felt the call to share their experience of personal conversion with others. Though social respectability and business methods became a notable feature of Victorian Nonconformity, the religious populism of the earlier period did not disappear and religious revival remained a key component of Dissenting experience. The impact of this revitalization was mixed. On the one hand, growth was not sustained in the long term and, to some extent, involvement in interdenominational activity undermined denominational identity; on the other hand, Nonconformists gained a social and political prominence they had not enjoyed since the middle of the seventeenth century and their efforts laid the basis for the twentieth-century explosion of evangelicalism in Africa, Asia, and South America.

scholarly journals The use of a flow field correction technique for alleviating the North Atlantic cold bias with application to the Kiel Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 1079-1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Drews ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch ◽  
Hui Ding ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
Flow Field ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
The North ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
The North Atlantic

Subpolar Gyre – AMOC – Atmosphere Interactions on Multidecadal Timescales in a Version of the Kiel Climate Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Sun ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>There is a controversy about the nature of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic (NA) region, concerning the roles of ocean circulation and atmosphere-ocean coupling. Here we describe NA multidecadal variability from a version of the Kiel Climate Model, in which both subpolar gyre (SPG)-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and atmosphere-ocean coupling are essential. The oceanic barotropic streamfuntions, meridional overturning streamfunctions, and sea level pressure are jointly analyzed to derive the leading mode of Atlantic variability. This mode accounting for about 23.7 % of the total combined variance is oscillatory with an irregular periodicity of 25-50 years and an e-folding time of about a decade. SPG and AMOC mutually influence each other and together provide the delayed negative feedback necessary for maintaining the oscillation. An anomalously strong SPG, for example, drives higher surface salinity and density in the NA’s sinking region. In response, oceanic deep convection and AMOC intensify, which, with a time delay of about a decade, reduces SPG strength by enhancing upper-ocean heat content. The weaker gyre circulation leads to lower surface salinity and density in the sinking region, which eventually reduces deep convection and AMOC strength. There is a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback between the sea surface temperature and low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Greenland area, with related wind stress changes reinforcing SPG changes, thereby maintaining the (damped) multidecadal oscillation against dissipation. Stochastic surface heat-flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation drives the eigenmode.</p>

REGIONAL SECURITY DYNAMICS IN NORTHERN EUROPE (ON THE EXAMPLE OF NORWAY) IN THE LIGHT OF RECENT CHANGES

2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
D. Kalibekuly ◽  
◽  
Y.S. Chukubayev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Member Country ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Security System ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the dynamics of regional security in Norway as a part of Northern Europe. Being a political and geographical part of the Euro-Atlantic security system. Northern Europe, in its turn, is experiencing the impact of the confrontation between Russia and NATO. Norway's security policy analyzed from the perspective of a regional leader, as a NATO member country participating in the operations of the North Atlantic Alliance and as NATO's northern wing.

scholarly journals External forcing mechanisms controlling the North Atlantic coastal upwelling regime during the mid-Holocene

Geology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armand Hernández ◽  
Mário Cachão ◽  
Pedro Sousa ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coastal Upwelling ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
The North ◽  
New Findings ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Eastern North Atlantic ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

Nearshore upwelling along the eastern North Atlantic margin regulates regional marine ecosystem productivity and thus impacts blue economies. While most global circulation models show an increase in the intensity and duration of seasonal upwelling at high latitudes under future human-induced warmer conditions, projections for the North Atlantic are still ambiguous. Due to the low temporal resolution of coastal upwelling records, little is known about the impact of natural forcing mechanisms on upwelling variability. Here, we present a microfossil-based proxy record and modeling simulations for the warmest period of the Holocene (ca. 9–5 ka) to estimate the contribution of the natural variability in North Atlantic upwelling via atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. We found that more frequent high-pressure conditions in the eastern North Atlantic associated with solar activity and orbital parameters triggered upwelling variations at multidecadal and millennial time scales, respectively. Our new findings offer insights into the role of external forcing mechanisms in upwelling changes before the Anthropocene, which must be considered when producing future projections of midlatitude upwelling activity.

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