scholarly journals Severe Weather Warnings: impact of an event vs. impact of a warning.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saskia Willemse ◽  
Nathalie Popovic ◽  
Nikolina Fuduric ◽  
Léonie Bisang ◽  
Cécile Zachlod
Keyword(s):  
Design Thinking ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Governance Structure ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Key Accounts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weather Service

<p>The most important question a national weather service should ask itself in connection with its warning task is: "Do our warnings contribute to reducing the impact of extreme weather events?". A perfect impact forecast of an extreme weather event does not necessarily contribute to reduce the impact of the event. Even the most perfect warning, whether based on physical thresholds or on potential impact, is not a guarantee for a reduction of the impact of the warned extreme event. Only If the warning reaches the recipient in time, is understood and action is taken, is there a chance that the impact can be reduced, which means that the warning unfolds an impact. Therefore, if we want the recipient to understand the warnings and to know what action to take, we have to know what his needs are.</p><p>In this contribution we describe a method (“Jobs to be done”) with which we investigated the needs of the authorities in terms of severe weather warnings in Switzerland and we will present the results of this investigation. This method focuses our attention on those processes that are important to the authorities but unsatisfactorily fulfilled. Once isolated, we engage our experts in cooperation with the authorities to find optimal and innovative solutions through design thinking workshops. In the Swiss federal structure, the warning chain extends over all levels of the governance structure: the severe weather warnings are issued at federal level and transmitted to the Cantons, these can decide to add local information, particularly concerning impact, and transmit them to the communities and the population. In our investigation, we concentrated on the administrative authorities and on the cantonal coordination bodies of the fire brigades. The aim of this study is to find indications for optimising the warnings, in terms of content, representation and also distribution.</p><p>The investigation started in January 2021 with a series of interviews with seven natural hazard experts and six fire inspectors of different Cantons. Currently (April 2021) we are running two surveys in all Cantons and in June we plan two workshops with representatives of the Cantons and of the fire brigades together with collaborators of the National Weather Service MeteoSwiss (forecasters, developers and key accounts). </p>

scholarly journals Gênese, Impacto e a Variabilidade das Precipitações de Granizo na Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense, Brasil / Genesis, Impact and Variability of Hail Precipitations in the Central South Mesoregion of the State of Paraná, Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (56) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Felipe da Silva Caldana ◽  
Anderson Paulo Rudke ◽  
Iara Da Silva ◽  
Pablo Ricardo Nitsche ◽  
Paulo Henrique Caramori
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Central South

Condições de tempo e clima são essenciais para a agricultura e o desenvolvimento da sociedade, entretanto, sua dinâmica pouco compreendida pode comprometer algumas atividades humanas. A precipitação de granizo, um evento extremo caracterizado por precipitação de água em estado sólido, tem alta capacidade destrutiva no meio rural e urbano, gerando transtornos e prejuízos frequentes. A Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense (MRCSP) possui uma grande área de produção agrícola e aproximadamente 500 mil habitantes, que podem estar vulneráveis a eventos meteorológicos extremos, sendo necessário estudos que auxiliem o planejamento para auxiliar tomadas de decisão na região. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a gênese, frequência, ocorrência, impactos e a variabilidade de precipitações de granizo na MRCSP, fornecendo suporte para o planejamento e adoção de preventivas de combate ao impacto desse fenômeno na região. Foram utilizadas quatro fontes distintas de dados: estações agrometeorológicas, jornais regionais, imagens de satélite e relatórios de ocorrências, danos e situações de emergência da Defesa Civil. Foram identificados 37 decretos de situação de emergência vinculados a granizo e 395.057 pessoas afetadas na região, em 18 anos de análise. O principal dano observado foi o destelhamento. Em Laranjeiras do Sul observou-se, em média, 5,4 eventos por ano. Os sistemas convectivos e as frentes frias foram identificados como os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na formação de granizo nesta região. Os resultados demonstraram alta frequência de precipitações de granizo em toda região. Com ausência de planejamento para redução da vulnerabilidade, a exposição aos eventos extremos meteorológicos permanece frequente.Palavras–chave: vulnerabilidade, risco climático, eventos extremos, clima urbano.Abstract Weather and climate conditions are essential for agriculture and the development of society; however, their little-understood dynamics can compromise some human activities. Hail precipitation, an extreme event characterised by solid state water precipitation, has high destructive capacity in rural and urban environments, generating frequent disturbances and losses. The Central-South Paraná state Meso-region (MRCSP) in southern Brazil has a large agricultural production area and approximately 500 thousand inhabitants, which may be vulnerable to extreme weather events, and studies are needed to assist in decision making in this region. This work aimed to identify the genesis, frequency, occurrence, impacts and variability of hail precipitation in the MRCSP, providing support for the planning and adoption of preventive measures to combat the impact of this phenomenon. Four different sources of data were used: agrometeorological stations, regional newspapers, satellite images and reports of occurrences, damages and emergencies issued by the Civil Defense. Thirty-seven emergency decrees related to hail and 395,057 people affected in the region were identified in 18 years of analysis. The primary damage observed was roof destruction. In Laranjeiras do Sul, an average of 5.4 events were observed per year. The convective systems and the cold fronts were identified as the central meteorological systems working in the genesis of hail in this region. In the absence of planning for vulnerability reduction, exposure to extreme weather events remains frequent.Keywords: vulnerability, climate risk, extreme events, urban climate.

scholarly journals Gênese, frequência e intensidade das precipitações de granizo nas Mesorregiões Centro Oriental e Sudeste Paranaense, Brasil

GeoTextos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Felipe da Silva Caldana ◽  
Alan Carlos Martelócio
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Genesis Frequency

A precipitação de granizo, um evento extremo caracterizado por precipitação de água em estado sólido, tem alta capacidade destrutiva nos meios rural e urbano, gerando transtornos e prejuízos frequentes. A Mesorregião Centro Oriental Paranaense (MRCOP) e a Mesorregião Sudeste Paranaense (MRSEP) possuem uma grande área de produção agrícola e aproximadamente 900 mil habitantes, que podem estar vulneráveis a eventos meteorológicos extremos, sendo necessários estudos que auxiliem o planejamento e as tomadas de decisão neste recorte específico. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a gênese, a frequência e a intensidade das precipitações de granizo nas Mesorregiões Centro Oriental e Sudeste Paranaense, fornecendo suporte para o planejamento e a adoção de preventivas de combate ao impacto desse fenômeno. Foram utilizadas três fontes distintas de dados: estações agrometeorológicas, imagens de satélite e relatórios de ocorrências, danos e situações de emergência da Defesa Civil. Foram identificados 37 decretos de situação de emergência vinculados a granizo e 372 mil pessoas afetadas nas mesoregiões, em 19 anos de análise. Os sistemas convectivos e as frentes frias foram identificados como os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na formação de granizo nestas mesoregiões. Com ausência de planejamento para redução da vulnerabilidade, a exposição aos eventos extremos meteorológicos permanece frequente. Abstract GENESIS, FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF HAIL PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL-WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PARANÁ STATE, BRAZIL Hail precipitation, an extreme event characterized by solid state water precipitation, has high destructive capacity in rural and urban environments, generating frequent disturbances and losses. The Central-Western Paraná state Meso-region (MRCOP) and The Southeast Paraná state Meso-region (MRSEP) in southern Brazil has a large agricultural production area and approximately 900 thousand inhabitants, which may be vulnerable to extreme weather events, and studies are needed to assist in decision making in these regions. This work aimed to identify the genesis, frequency and intensity of hail precipitation in The Central-Western Paraná state Meso-region (MRCOP) and The Southeast Paraná state Meso-region (MRSEP), providing support for the planning and adoption of preventive measures to combat the impact of this phenomenon. Three different sources of data were used: agrometeorological stations, satellite images and reports of occurrences, damages and emergency situations issued by the Civil Defense. Thirty-seven emergency decrees related to hail and 372 thousand people affected in the regions were identified in 19 years of analysis. The convective systems and the cold fronts were identified as the main meteorological systems working in the genesis of hail in these regions. In the absence of planning for vulnerability reduction, exposure to extreme weather events remains frequent.

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2112087118
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Tim Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Attribution of extreme weather events has expanded rapidly as a field over the past decade. However, deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers of extreme events have led to some concerns over the robustness of climate model–based attribution studies. It has also been suggested that the unconditioned risk-based approach to event attribution may result in false negative results due to dynamical noise overwhelming any climate change signal. The “storyline” attribution framework, in which the impact of climate change on individual drivers of an extreme event is examined, aims to mitigate these concerns. Here we propose a methodology for attribution of extreme weather events using the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) medium-range forecast model that successfully predicted the event. The use of a successful forecast ensures not only that the model is able to accurately represent the event in question, but also that the analysis is unequivocally an attribution of this specific event, rather than a mixture of multiple different events that share some characteristic. Since this attribution methodology is conditioned on the component of the event that was predictable at forecast initialization, we show how adjusting the lead time of the forecast can flexibly set the level of conditioning desired. This flexible adjustment of the conditioning allows us to synthesize between a storyline (highly conditioned) and a risk-based (relatively unconditioned) approach. We demonstrate this forecast-based methodology through a partial attribution of the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.

scholarly journals Impact of Extreme Weather on Healthcare Utilization by People with HIV in Metropolitan Miami

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2442
Author(s):  
Daniel Samano ◽  
Shubhayu Saha ◽  
Taylor Corbin Kot ◽  
JoNell E. Potter ◽  
Lunthita M. Duthely
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.

Does extreme rainfall lead to heavy losses in the food industry?

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-266
Author(s):  
Edimilson Costa Lucas ◽  
Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva ◽  
Gustavo Silva Araujo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Managing the risks associated to world food production is an important challenge for governments. A range of factors, among them extreme weather events, has threatened food production in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of extreme rainfall events on the food industry in Brazil, a prominent player in this industry. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the AR-GARCH-GPD hybrid methodology to identify whether extreme rainfall affects the stock price of food companies. To do so, the authors collected the daily closing price of the 16 food industry companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), in January 2015. Findings The results indicate that these events have a significant impact on stock returns: on more than half of the days immediately following the heavy rain that fell between 28 February 2005 and 30 December 2014, returns were significantly low, leading to average daily losses of 1.97 per cent. These results point to the relevance of the need for instruments to hedge against weather risk, particularly in the food industry. Originality/value Given that extreme weather events have been occurring more and more frequently, financial literature has documented attempts at assessing the economic impacts of weather changes. There is little research, however, into assessing the impacts of these events at corporate level.

scholarly journals Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (15) ◽  
pp. 2799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Danish Khan ◽  
Hong Ha Thi Vu ◽  
Quang Tuan Lai ◽  
Ji Whan Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector’s growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Impacts on Inland Waterways Transport of Yangtze River

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijun Liu ◽  
Yuanqiao Wen ◽  
Youjia Liang ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Tiantian Yang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Inland Waterways ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave > heavy rainfall > wind gust > cold spell > storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.

Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings*

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1412-1429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
Daniel T. Lindsey ◽  
Andrea B. Schumacher ◽  
Jeff Braun ◽  
Steven D. Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Of Day ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Front Range ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract On 22 May 2008, a strong tornado—rated EF3 on the enhanced Fujita scale, with winds estimated between 136 and 165 mi h−1 (61 and 74 m s−1)—caused extensive damage along a 55-km track through northern Colorado. The worst devastation occurred in and around the town of Windsor, and in total there was one fatality, numerous injuries, and hundreds of homes significantly damaged or destroyed. Several characteristics of this tornado were unusual for the region from a climatological perspective, including its intensity, its long track, its direction of motion, and the time of day when it formed. These unusual aspects and the high impact of this tornado also raised a number of questions about the communication and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by decision makers and the public. First, the study examines the meteorological circumstances responsible for producing such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and mesoscale environmental conditions that were favorable for significant tornadoes on 22 May 2008 is presented. Then, a climatology of significant tornadoes (defined as those rated F2 or higher on the Fujita scale, or EF2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita scale) near the Front Range is shown to put the 22 May 2008 event into climatological context. This study also examines the communication and interpretation of severe weather information in an area that experiences tornadoes regularly but is relatively unaccustomed to significant tornadoes. By conducting interviews with local decision makers, the authors have compiled and chronicled the flow of information as the event unfolded. The results of these interviews demonstrate that the initial sources of warning information varied widely. Decision makers’ interpretations of the warnings also varied, which led to different perceptions on the timeliness and clarity of the warning information. The decision makers’ previous knowledge of the typical local characteristics of tornadoes also affected their interpretations of the tornado threat. The interview results highlight the complex series of processes by which severe weather information is communicated after a warning is issued by the National Weather Service. The results of this study support the growing recognition that societal factors are just as important to the effectiveness of weather warnings as the timeliness of and information provided in those warnings, and that these factors should be considered in future research in addition to the investments and attention given to improving detection and warning capabilities.

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