scholarly journals Evaluation of daily forecasts by the coupled Terrestrial Systems Modelling Platform (TSMP) over a small convection-permitting model domain in Central Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maksim Iakunin ◽  
Niklas Wagner ◽  
Alexander Graf ◽  
Klaus Görgen ◽  
Stefan Kollet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Model Domain ◽  
Wide Range

<p>In many of today’s resource management and climate change adaptation challenges, versatile and  reliable numerical model simulations are the basis for informed decision making. The integration of multiple compartmental  models into simulation platforms allows us to reproduce interacting geosystem processes and thereby solve a wide range of problems in a variety of applications. The Terrestrial System Modelling Platform (TSMP, https://www.terrsysmp.org) is an integrated regional Earth system model that simulates processes from the groundwater across the land surface to the top of the atmosphere on multiple spatio-temporal scales. TSMP consists of the COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) atmospheric model, the CLM (Community Land Model), and the hydrologic model ParFlo, coupled through OASIS3-MCT. TSMP is used in various studies from climate change simulations to near-real time forecasting and monitoring. Here we present the results of the evaluation of the TSMP in a monitoring setup, providing daily forecasts with a lead time of 10days of the atmospheric, surface, and groundwater states and fluxes for a heterogeneous mid mountain-ranges area in Western Germany. The model domain covers an area of 150km x 150km at 1km (atmosphere) and 0.5km (land surface and subsurface) resolution. The simulated data is compared with observations from the TERENO (Terrestrial Environmental Observatories, https://www.tereno.net) Eifel/Lower Rhine Valley network. This TERENO observatory comprises a total area of 2354 km² and provides data from a very dense measurement network of 12 climate stations, 6 eddy covariance stations, 6 lysimeter stations, and 13 cosmic-ray neutron stations. To assess the quality and suitability of the TSMP as a monitoring system of the geosystem’s state and evolution with agricultural applications in mind,  forecasts from July 2019 to October 2020 are analyzed with reference to the observations. Results show that the TSMP can well represent the main subsurface hydrological and relevant meteorological features.</p>

Establishment of a network of soil moisture and cosmic ray neutron sensors for data assimilation and optimization of high-resolution, real-time predictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrizia Ney ◽  
Alexandre Belleflamme ◽  
Maksim Iakunin ◽  
Niklas Wagner ◽  
Sebastian Bathiany ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Direct Access ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Community Land Model

<p>Climate change and its impacts at local scales, such as the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events like droughts or floods, pose an increasing problem for agriculture. Our aim is to support farmers with soil condition and weather forecasting products that provide the basis for optimal adaptation to short-term weather variability and extremes as well as to long-term, regional climate change.</p><p>For this purpose, a prototypical monitoring and real-time forecasting system was established. The monitoring networks consist of a novel cosmic ray neutron sensor (Styx Neutronica), soil moisture and temperature sensors in four depths between 5 and 60 cm (SoilNet) and an all-in-one weather station (ATMOS-41, METER Environment) to measure the atmospheric conditions including air temperature, humidity, pressure, solar irradiance, wind speed and precipitation at 2 meter height above ground. The observation data are transmitted in real time to a cloud server via the cellular solution NBIoT (Narrow Band Internet of Things). After data post-processing the meteorological and hydrological parameters measured on site are directly assimilated into the fully coupled multi-physical numerical model system TSMP (Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, www.terrsysmp.org) at Forschungszentrum Jülich. ParFlow hydrologic model (www.parflow.org) is used in combination with the Community Land Model (CLM) to predict hourly, high-resolution (near plot level) information on soil moisture or other soil and meteorological parameters for the next 10 days. A special feature here is the prediction on the temporal development of plant-available water between 0-60cm depth for the sites of our monitoring network partners.</p><p>Observation data as well as the forecasting products are published in near real time on the digital product platform www.adapter-projekt.de. Users thus have direct access to relevant information that support them in planning agricultural management, e.g. irrigation and fertilization requirements, trafficability or workability.</p>

scholarly journals Continental Runoff into the Oceans (1950–2008)

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1502-1520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Clark ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
Michelle T. H. van Vliet ◽  
Bart Nijssen ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Continental Runoff

Abstract A common term in the continental and oceanic components of the global water cycle is freshwater discharge to the oceans. Many estimates of the annual average global discharge have been made over the past 100 yr with a surprisingly wide range. As more observations have become available and continental-scale land surface model simulations of runoff have improved, these past estimates are cast in a somewhat different light. In this paper, a combination of observations from 839 river gauging stations near the outlets of large river basins is used in combination with simulated runoff fields from two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model to estimate continental runoff into the world’s oceans from 1950 to 2008. The gauges used account for ~58% of continental areas draining to the ocean worldwide, excluding Greenland and Antarctica. This study estimates that flows to the world’s oceans globally are 44 200 (±2660) km3 yr−1 (9% from Africa, 37% from Eurasia, 30% from South America, 16% from North America, and 8% from Australia–Oceania). These estimates are generally higher than previous estimates, with the largest differences in South America and Australia–Oceania. Given that roughly 42% of ocean-draining continental areas are ungauged, it is not surprising that estimates are sensitive to the land surface and hydrologic model (LSM) used, even with a correction applied to adjust for model bias. The results show that more and better in situ streamflow measurements would be most useful in reducing uncertainties, in particular in the southern tip of South America, the islands of Oceania, and central Africa.

scholarly journals Correction of systematic model forcing bias of CLM using assimilation of cosmic-ray Neutrons and land surface temperature: a study in the Heihe Catchment, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 615-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Han ◽  
H.-J. H. Franssen ◽  
R. Rosolem ◽  
R. Jin ◽  
X. Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Independent Field

Abstract. The recent development of the non-invasive cosmic-ray soil moisture sensing technique fills the gap between point-scale soil moisture measurements and regional-scale soil moisture measurements by remote sensing. A cosmic-ray probe measures soil moisture for a footprint with a diameter of ~ 600 m (at sea level) and with an effective measurement depth between 12 and 76 cm, depending on the soil humidity. In this study, it was tested whether neutron counts also allow correcting for a systematic error in the model forcings. A lack of water management data often causes systematic input errors to land surface models. Here, the assimilation procedure was tested for an irrigated corn field (Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research – HiWATER, 2012) where no irrigation data were available as model input although for the area a significant amount of water was irrigated. In the study, the measured cosmic-ray neutron counts and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) products were jointly assimilated into the Community Land Model (CLM) with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter. Different data assimilation scenarios were evaluated, with assimilation of LST and/or cosmic-ray neutron counts, and possibly parameter estimation of leaf area index (LAI). The results show that the direct assimilation of cosmic-ray neutron counts can improve the soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) estimation significantly, correcting for lack of information on irrigation amounts. The joint assimilation of neutron counts and LST could improve further the ET estimation, but the information content of neutron counts exceeded the one of LST. Additional improvement was achieved by calibrating LAI, which after calibration was also closer to independent field measurements. It was concluded that assimilation of neutron counts was useful for ET and soil moisture estimation even if the model has a systematic bias like neglecting irrigation. However, also the assimilation of LST helped to correct the systematic model bias introduced by neglecting irrigation and LST could be used to update soil moisture with state augmentation.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling in Northwest Mexico Reveals the Links between Runoff Mechanisms and Evapotranspiration

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 785-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustín Robles-Morua ◽  
Enrique R. Vivoni ◽  
Alex S. Mayer
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Limited Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A distributed hydrologic model is used to evaluate how runoff mechanisms—including infiltration excess (RI), saturation excess (RS), and groundwater exfiltration (RG)—influence the generation of streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) in a mountainous region under the influence of the North American monsoon (NAM). The study site, the upper Sonora River basin (~9350 km2) in Mexico, is characterized by a wide range of terrain, soil, and ecosystem conditions obtained from best available data sources. Three meteorological scenarios are compared to explore the impact of spatial and temporal variations of meteorological characteristics on land surface processes and to identify the value of North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) forcing products in the NAM region. The following scenarios are considered for a 1-yr period: 1) a sparse network of ground-based stations, 2) raw forcing products from NLDAS, and 3) NLDAS products adjusted using available station data. These scenarios are discussed in light of spatial distributions of precipitation, streamflow, and runoff mechanisms during annual, seasonal, and monthly periods. This study identified that the mode of runoff generation impacts seasonal relations between ET and soil moisture in the water-limited region. In addition, ET rates at annual and seasonal scales were related to the runoff mechanism proportions, with an increase in ET when RS was dominant and a decrease in ET when RI was more important. The partitioning of runoff mechanisms also helps explain the monthly progression of runoff ratios in these seasonally wet hydrologic systems. Understanding the complex interplay between seasonal responses of runoff mechanisms and evapotranspiration can yield information that is of interest to hydrologists and water managers.

Are mangroves in Victoria (south-eastern Australia) already responding to climate change?

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 2366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul I. Boon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Plant Vigour ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
South Eastern Australia

The distribution and productivity of mangroves is directly affected by a wide range of climatic drivers, including temperature, frost, rainfall, evaporation and storm activity, which, in turn, influence a suite of secondary drivers, including changes in freshwater run-off and sediment supply, groundwater dynamics and inter-species competitiveness. The highest-latitude expression of mangroves globally is at Millers Landing, Victoria (38°45′S), and because the vigour and productivity of mangroves across much of Victoria is thought to be limited by low winter temperatures and the incidence and severity of frosts, it is likely that mangroves will be among the first plant communities to be affected by climate change in coastal south-eastern Australia. An increase in plant vigour is likely, but there are almost no historical data with which to compare current rates of primary production. An extension of mangroves to higher latitudes on the mainland is impossible because of the geomorphology of the land that lies further to the south. Small-scale changes in distribution, including the progressive encroachment of mangroves into coastal saltmarsh, are likely to be among the clearest indications of the response of mangroves to a warming climate. Increased effort into tracking changes in mangrove vigour, productivity and distribution is clearly warranted.

Global Land Surface Temperature from historical NOAA AVHRR datasets (1981-2000)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Ma ◽  
Ji Zhou ◽  
Frank-Michael Göttsche ◽  
Shaofei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Microwave Remote Sensing ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Noaa Avhrr

<p>As one of the most important indicators in the energy exchange between land and atmosphere, Land Surface Temperature (LST) plays an important role in the research of climate change and various land surface processes. In contrast to <em>in-situ</em> measurements, satellite remote sensing provides a practical approach to measure global and local land surface parameters. Although passive microwave remote sensing offers all-weather observation capability, retrieving LST from thermal infra-red data is still the most common approach. To date, a variety of global LST products have been published by the scientific community, e.g. MODIS and (A)ASTR /SLSTR LST products, and used in a broad range of research fields. Several global and regional satellite retrieved LSTs are available since 1995. However, the temporal-spatial resolution before 2000 is generally considerably lower than that after 2000. According to the latest IPCC report, 1983 – 2012 are the warmest 30 years for nearly 1400 years. Therefore, for global climate change research, it is meaningful to extend the time series of global LST products with a relatively higher temporal-spatial resolution to before 2000, e.g. that of NOAA AVHRR. In this study, global daily NOAA AVHRR LST products with 5-km spatial resolution were generated for 1981-2000. The LST was retrieved using an ensemble of RF-SWAs (Random Forest and Split-Window Algorithm). For a maximum uncertainty in emissivity and water vapor content of 0.04 and 1.0 g/cm<sup>2</sup>, respectively, the training and testing with simulated datasets showed a retrieval accuracy with MBE of less than 0.1 K and STD of 1.1 K. The generated RF-SWA LST product was also evaluated against <em>in-situ</em> measurements: for water sites of the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) between 1981 and 2000, it showed an accuracy similar to that for the simulated data, with a small MBE of less than 0.1 K and a STD between 0.79 K and 1.02 K. For SURFRAD data collected between 1995 and 2000, the MBE is -0.03 K with a range of -1.20 K – 0.54 K and a STD with a mean of 2.55 K and a range of 2.08 K – 3.0 K (site dependent). As a new global historical dataset, the RF-SWA LST product can help to close the gap in long-term LST data available to climate research. Furthermore, the data can be used as input to land surface process models, e.g. the Community Land Model (CLM). In support of the scientific research community, the RF-SWA LST product will be freely available at the National Earth System Science Data Center of China (http://www.geodata.cn/).</p>

scholarly journals Climate Impacts of Making Evapotranspiration in the Community Land Model (CLM3) Consistent with the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB)

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 374-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Lawrence ◽  
Thomas N. Chase
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Surface Hydrology ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Biosphere Model ◽  
Surface Parameterizations

Abstract In recent climate sensitivity experiments with the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), a wide range of studies have found that the Community Land Model, version 3 (CLM3), simulates mean global evapotranspiration with low contributions from transpiration (15%), and high contributions from soil and canopy evaporation (47% and 38%, respectively). This evapotranspiration partitioning is inconsistent with the consensus of other land surface models used in GCMs. To understand the high soil and canopy evaporation and the low transpiration observed in the CLM3, select individual components of the land surface parameterizations that control transpiration, canopy and soil evaporation, and soil hydrology are compared against the equivalent parameterizations used in the Simple Biosphere Model, versions 2 and 3 (SiB2 and SiB3), and against more recent developments with CLM. The findings of these investigations are used to develop new parameterizations for CLM3 that would reproduce the functional dynamics of land surface processes found in SiB and other alternative land surface parameterizations. Global climate sensitivity experiments are performed with the new land surface parameterizations to assess how the new SiB, consistent CLM land surface parameterizations, influence the surface energy balance, hydrology, and atmospheric fluxes in CLM3, and through that the larger-scale climate modeled in CCSM3. It is found that the new parameterizations enable CLM to simulate evapotranspiration partitioning consistently with the multimodel average of other land surface models used in GCMs, as evaluated by Dirmeyer et al. (2005). The changes in surface fluxes also resulted in a number of improvements in the simulation of precipitation and near-surface air temperature in CCSM3. The new model is fully coupled in the CCSM3 framework, allowing a wide range of climate modeling investigations without the surface hydrology issues found in the current CLM3 model. This provides a substantially more robust framework for performing climate modeling experiments investigating the influence of land cover change and surface hydrology in CLM and CCSM than the existing CLM3 parameterizations. The study also shows that changes in land surface hydrology have global scale impacts on model climatology.

scholarly journals Evaluating the value of a network of cosmic-ray probes for improving land surface modelling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Baatz ◽  
Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen ◽  
Xujun Han ◽  
Tim Hoar ◽  
Heye R. Bogena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Lower Boundary Condition ◽  
Soil Map ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Verification Period ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Soil Hydraulic

Abstract. Land surface models can model matter and energy fluxes between the land surface and atmosphere, and provide a lower boundary condition to atmospheric circulation models. For these applications, accurate soil moisture quantification is highly desirable but not always possible given limited observations and limited subsurface data accuracy. Cosmic-ray probes (CRPs) offer an interesting alternative to indirectly measure soil moisture and provide an observation that can be assimilated into land surface models for improved soil moisture prediction. Synthetic studies have shown the potential to estimate subsurface parameters of land surface models with the assimilation of CRP observations. In this study, the potential of a network of CRPs for estimating subsurface parameters and improved soil moisture states is tested in a real-world case scenario using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the Community Land Model. The potential of the CRP network was tested by assimilating CRP-data for the years 2011 and 2012 (with or without soil hydraulic parameter estimation), followed by the verification year 2013. This was done using (i) the regional soil map as input information for the simulations, and (ii) an erroneous, biased soil map. For the regional soil map, soil moisture characterization was only improved in the assimilation period but not in the verification period. For the biased soil map, soil moisture characterization improved in both periods strongly from a ERMS of 0.11 cm3/cm3 to 0.03 cm3/cm3 (assimilation period) and from 0.12 cm3/cm3 to 0.05 cm3/cm3 (verification period) and the estimated soil hydraulic parameters were after assimilation closer to the ones of the regional soil map. Finally, the value of the CRP network was also evaluated with jackknifing data assimilation experiments. It was found that the CRP network is able to improve soil moisture estimates at locations between the assimilation sites from a ERMS of 0.12 cm3/cm3 to 0.06 cm3/cm3 (verification period), but again only if the initial soil map was biased.

scholarly journals ESM-Tools Version 4.0: A modular infrastructure for stand-alone and coupled Earth System Modelling (ESM)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Barbi ◽  
Nadine Wieters ◽  
Paul Gierz ◽  
Fatemeh Chegini ◽  
Sara Khosravi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Runtime Infrastructure ◽  
Earth System Modelling

Abstract. Earth system and climate modelling involves the simulation of processes on a wide range of scales and within and across various components of the Earth system. In practice, component models are often developed independently by different research groups and then combined using a dedicated coupling software. This procedure not only leads to a strongly growing number of available versions of model components and coupled setups but also to model- and system-dependent ways of obtaining and operating them. Therefore, implementing these Earth System Models (ESMs) can be challenging and extremely time-consuming, especially for less experienced modellers, or scientists aiming to use different ESMs as in the case of inter-comparison projects. To assist researchers and modellers by reducing avoidable complexity, we developed the ESM-Tools software, which provides a standard way for downloading, configuring, compiling, running and monitoring different models - coupled ESMs and stand-alone models alike - on a variety of High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems. (The ESM-Tools are equally applicable and helpful for stand-alone as for coupled models. In fact, the ESM-Tools are used as standard compile and runtime infrastructure for FESOM2, and currently also applied for ECHAM and ICON standalone simulations. As coupled ESMs are technically the more challenging tasks, we will focus on coupled setups, always implying that stand-alone models can benefit in the same way.) With the ESM-Tools, the user is only required to provide a short script consisting of only the experiment specific definitions, while the software executes all the phases of a simulation in the correct order. The software, which is well documented and easy to install and use, currently supports four ocean models, three atmosphere models, two biogeochemistry models, an ice sheet model, an isostatic adjustment model, a hydrology model and a land-surface model. ESM-Tools has been entirely re-coded in a high-level programming language (Python) and provides researchers with an even more user-friendly interface for Earth system modelling lately. The ESM-Tools were developed within the framework of the project Advanced Earth System Model Capacity, supported by the Helmholtz Association.

scholarly journals Interstellar and intergalactic dynamos

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (S294) ◽  
pp. 225-236
Author(s):  
M. Hanasz ◽  
D. Woltanski ◽  
K. Kowalik
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Galactic Rotation ◽  
Galaxy Mergers ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractWe review recent developments of amplification models of galactic and intergalactic magnetic field. The most popular scenarios involve variety of physical mechanisms, including turbulence generation on a wide range of physical scales, effects of supernovae, buoyancy as well as the magnetorotational instability. Other models rely on galaxy interaction, which generate galactic and intergalactic magnetic fields during galaxy mergers. We present also global galactic-scale numerical models of the Cosmic Ray (CR) driven dynamo, which was originally proposed by Parker (1992). We conduct a series of direct CR+MHD numerical simulations of the dynamics of the interstellar medium (ISM), composed of gas, magnetic fields and CR components. We take into account CRs accelerated in randomly distributed supernova (SN) remnants, and assume that SNe deposit small-scale, randomly oriented, dipolar magnetic fields into the ISM. The amplification timescale of the large-scale magnetic field resulting from the CR-driven dynamo is comparable to the galactic rotation period. The process efficiently converts small-scale magnetic fields of SN-remnants into galactic-scale magnetic fields. The resulting magnetic field structure resembles the X-shaped magnetic fields observed in edge-on galaxies.

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