Climate change impacts on the Greek tourism sector

In this study we examine the impacts of climate change on the tourism sector using a number of tailored climate indicators assessing whether climate conditions are suitable for touristic activities such as the Tourism Climate Index -focusing on outdoor activities- and the Beach Climate Index -focusing on beach activities- as well as fire danger indicators such as the Canadian Fire Weather Index, focusing on forest fire risk. To this aim daily or sub-daily data for a number of meteorological variables from a large ensemble member of Regional Climate Models from the EURO-CORDEX data base are used. The data cover the period 1971-2100 under three RCP emissions scenarios, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis is performed for three periods, the 1971-2000 which is used as a reference period and two future periods, the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The results indicate that the robust warming projected on a seasonal basis, under all three climate scenarios, drives the changes on all indicators examined. Regarding the climate suitability indicators for tourism the results indicate a lengthening of the tourist season suitable climate conditions while for the fire danger indicators, an increase in the number of days with high and very high fire danger conditions is projected. The most pronounced changes are evident towards the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 future emissions scenario. This study is performed in the framework of CLIMPACT, a Greek national funded project which aims to immediate integration, harmonization and optimization of existing climate services and early warning systems for climate change-related natural disasters in Greece, including supportive observations from relevant national infrastructure.&#160;

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Assessing the capacity of Earth System Models to simulate spatiotemporal variability in fire weather indicators

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12208 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Carolina Gallo Granizo ◽

Jonathan Eden ◽

Bastien Dieppois ◽

Matthew Blackett

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Spatiotemporal Variability ◽

Global Evaluation ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Earth System ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

System Models ◽

Earth System Models

Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global fire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable areas. At the global scale, fire danger is likely to increase in the near future due to warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, as projected by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There is a need to develop the most reliable projections of future climate-driven fire danger to enable decision makers and forest managers to take both targeted proactive actions and to respond to future fire events.Climate change projections generated by Earth System Models (ESMs) provide the most important basis for understanding past, present and future changes in the climate system and its impacts. ESMs are, however, subject to systematic errors and biases, which are not fully taken into account when developing risk scenarios for wild fire activity. Projections of climate-driven fire danger have often been limited to the use of single models or the mean of multi-model ensembles, and compared to a single set of observational data (e.g. one index derived from one reanalysis).Here, a comprehensive global evaluation of the representation of a series of fire weather indicators in the latest generation of ESMs is presented. Seven fire weather indices from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System were generated using daily fields realisations simulated by 25 ESMs from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). With reference to observational and reanalysis datasets, we quantify the capacity of each model to realistically simulate the variability, magnitude and spatial extent of fire danger. The highest-performing models are identified and, subsequently, the limitations of combining models based on independency and equal performance when generating fire danger projections are discussed. To conclude, recommendations are given for the development of user- and policy-driven model evaluation at spatial scales relevant for decision-making and forest management.

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When the unprecedented becomes precedented: Lessons from Cyclones Idai and Kenneth

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1802 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Karen MacClune ◽

Rachel Norton

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Reduction ◽

Disaster Risk Reduction ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Climate Services ◽

Humanitarian Response ◽

Early Action ◽

Future Events ◽

Climate Hazards

Learning from global disasters &#8212; understanding what happened, the successes that prevented impacts from being worse, and the opportunities to reduce risk to future events &#8212; is critical if we are to protect people from increasingly extreme weather. Population growth is overtaxing ecosystems and climate change is creating new and intensifying existing climate hazards. Proactive and collaborative efforts are needed between all levels, from local to international, and across sectors connecting social science, economics, policy, infrastructure and the environment, to address these challenges. Perhaps most urgently, however, is the need to harness humanitarian response, development, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation to work in concert &#8211; we can no longer afford to deliver these needs in isolation.In March and April 2019 Cyclones Idai and Kenneth &#8211; two of the most destructive and powerful cyclones to ever hit southeast Africa &#8211; resulted in a widespread humanitarian disaster in Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, the impacts of which continue today in terms of livelihoods lost, food insecurity, and loss of permanent shelter for thousands. Damages were intensified by the novel nature of the impacts &#8211; the storms brought with them climate threats that were new to the areas and people impacted, leading to greater failure of existing preparedness and response mechanisms than might have been expected.This talk will present learnings from a study conducted by members of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance on the impacts of Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, highlighting opportunities for building multi-hazard resilience to future events. In particular, we will highlight the opportunities we found for strengthening resilience, even when challenged by entirely new climate hazards, through strengthening early warning systems and climate services, building capacity and resourcing for early action, supporting the construction of resistant homes and development of more diverse farming practices, and, most crucially, by better connecting humanitarian response and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts.These lessons are part of a series of Post-event Review Capability (PERC) learnings conducted by Zurich since 2013. The PERC methodology (available at: https://www.floodresilience.net/perc) supports broad, multi-sectoral resilience learning from global disaster events and identifies key actions for reducing future harm.<div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div>

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Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-610 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Verónica Dankiewicz ◽

Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽

Soledad M. Collazo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Season ◽

Historical Period ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Argentine Patagonia ◽

In Fire

Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies &#8203;&#8203;(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.

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Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/8886316 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Dan-Dan Yu ◽

Shan Li ◽

Zhong-Yang Guo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Index ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

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Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

10.5194/nhess-2020-69 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽

Folmer Krikken ◽

Sophie Lewis ◽

Nicholas J. Leach ◽

Flavio Lehner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Southern Annular Mode ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Fire Season ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically-based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index, long-term observations of heat and drought, and eleven large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor two due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. Finally, we find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the ERA5 reanalysis, and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. The trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes and hence also likely underestimated. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean dipole and Southern Annular Mode. These factors are included in the analysis. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some, but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change.

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Changes in forest fire danger for south-western China in the 21st century

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf13014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 185 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Xiao-rui Tian ◽

Feng-jun Zhao ◽

Li-fu Shu ◽

Ming-yu Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Eastern China ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Western China ◽

Fire Season ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Forest Fire Danger ◽

Extreme Fire

This paper predicts future changes in fire danger and the fire season in the current century for south-western China under two different climate change scenarios. The fire weather index (FWI) system calculated from daily outputs of a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 50×50km was used to assess fire danger. Temperature and precipitation demonstrated a gradually increasing trend for the future. Forest fire statistics for 1987–2011 revealed that the FWI, initial spread index and seasonal severity rating were significantly related to the number of forest fires between 100 and 1000ha in size. Over three future periods, the FWI component indices will increase greatly. The mean FWI value will increase by 0.83–1.85, 1.83–2.91 and 3.33–3.97 in the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The regions with predicted FWI increases are mainly in central and south-eastern China. The fire season (including days with high, very high and extreme fire danger ratings) will be prolonged by 9–13, 18–21 and 28–31 days over these periods. This fire season extension will mainly be due to days with an extreme fire danger rating. Considering predicted future changes in the forest fire danger rating and the fire season, it is suggested that climate change adaptation measures be implemented.

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Options and challenges for collaboration on climate service related activities at KNMI and KMI

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1532 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Janette Bessembinder ◽

Rozemien De Troch

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Service Providers ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Climate Services ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Societal Needs ◽

Climate Service ◽

Meteorological Institute

National meteorological institutes have generally a longstanding scientific expertise in climate research, climatological observations, and state-of-the-art climate modelling. In the context of climate change this expertise and service provision of climatic data, information and knowledge is of crucial importance to meet the societal needs. Furthermore, in each country the provision of climate services is generally arranged differently and strongly determined by governance, the official strategy and tasks of the meteorological institutes, as well as financing.To better align the activities between national climate service providers, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium successfully applied for the ERA4CS action for the exchange of staff, aiming to contribute to the alignment of R&D programmes, tools/instruments and/or climate related agendas of both countries.In the context of climate services, previous interactions between both institutes are mainly related to sporadically contacts between scientists in need of climatological data or information on methods for the definition of e.g. climate scenarios. However, Belgium and the Netherlands are neighbouring, both small countries, and climate change doesn&#8217;t stop at the border. Furthermore, coastal and inland regions along the borders are yet very sensitive to the impacts of climate change, and thus might cause cross-border issues in the future. Therefore, a two-way visit of senior staff responsible for climate services in both institutes is planned for early 2020. The visits aim to identify the differences and similarities on how climate services are currently provided and the broader context in which climate services are developed and delivered (legal mandate, what other organisations deliver climate services, relation with policy e.g. National Adaptation Strategies). More specifically, the services related to both current and future climate conditions (i.e. climate scenarios), the respective impact sectors and users/stakeholders of the climate services and the interaction with them, the used tools and methods for the creation of climate services, and the outreach and communication strategies for climate services will be discussed through informal interactions, meetings and presentations. An overview of these discussions together with conclusions on how climate-service related actions can be aligned and consolidated within future collaborations, will be presented.

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Assessment of future climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.018 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 48 (5) ◽

pp. 1327-1342 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Spyridon Paparrizos ◽

Andreas Matzarakis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Losses ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

The Future

Assessment of future variations of streamflow is essential for research regarding climate and climate change. This study is focused on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece and aims to assess the future response of annual and seasonal streamflow and its impacts on the hydrological regime, in combination with other fundamental aspects of the hydrological cycle in areas with different climate classification. ArcSWAT ArcGIS extension was used to simulate the future responses of streamflow. Future meteorological data were obtained from various regional climate models, and analysed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. In all the examined areas, streamflow is expected to be reduced. Areas characterized by continental climate will face minor reductions by the mid-century that will become very intense by the end and thus these areas will become more resistant to future changes. Autumn season will face the strongest reductions. Areas characterized by Mediterranean conditions will be very vulnerable in terms of future climate change and winter runoff will face the most significant decreases. Reduced precipitation is the main reason for decreased streamflow. High values of actual evapotranspiration by the end of the century will act as an inhibitor towards reduced runoff and partly counterbalance the water losses.

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Indicators to monitor policy progress in health adaptation to climate change: do they really do the job?

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.514 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

G Sanchez Martinez ◽

MC Tirado von der Pahlen ◽

V Kendrovski ◽

C Linares ◽

J Diaz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Environmental Health ◽

Social Protection ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Saharan Dust ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Climate Services

Abstract There is a need for urgent adaptive action to protect human health against climate change. Overall assessments based on a selection of indicators suggest that we are unable to cope with current climate impacts on health and unprepared to respond to increased pressures on climate-sensitive exposures and outcomes. The health sector has been addressing climate adaptation to health, through siloed approaches limited to the health system, which reduces their capacity and effectiveness. Successful strategies for addressing climate and environmental degradation challenges to health, and related issues such as environmental health, nutrition or equity, require integrated adaptation approaches among the health systems, social protection systems, water and sanitation systems, urban planning, environmental health and climate services among others. For example, integrated monitoring and surveillance (human-animal-environmental-ecosystems health) is critical for the early identification of emerging risks, diseases or trends, and for resource planning and evaluation of the adaptation and control strategies. In addition, when climate and health indicators are put to use for prevention, and eventually adaptation, they are also frequently used in isolation, disregarding interactions. For example, early warning systems for the prevention of climate-influenced impacts on health, such as Heat Health Action Plans, air pollution warnings or allergenic pollen information systems are usually activated individually commonly fail to address the synergies across various climate-related or climate-aggravated exposures. Since various of those exposures tend to occur concurrently (e.g. heat, anthropogenic air pollution from thermal inversions, and Saharan dust intrusions), failure to integrate them in prevention efforts could affect their effectiveness and reach. Thus, there is a need to carry out an integrative approach for the multiple effects that climate change has on population health.

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Building synergies in regional climate services for Southeast Asia: The ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15094 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gerald Lim ◽

Aurel Moise ◽

Raizan Rahmat ◽

Bertrand Timbal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Data Analysis ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Services

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a rapidly developing and densely populated region that is home to over 600 million people. This, together with the region&#8217;s high sensitivity, exposure and low adaptive capacities, makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change and extremes such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. While the last decade saw some countries in SEA develop their own climate change projections, studies were largely uncoordinated and most countries still lack the capability to independently produce robust future climate information. Following a proposal from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Association (RA) V working group on climate services, the ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series was conceived in 2017 to bridge these gaps in regional synergies. The ARCDAP series has been organised annually since 2018 by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (hosted by Meteorological Service Singapore) with support from WMO through the Canada-funded Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (Canada-CREWS) initiative.This presentation will cover the activities and outcomes from the first two workshops, as well as the third which will be held in February 2020. The ARCDAP series has so far brought together representatives from ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), climate scientists and end-users from policy-making and a variety of vulnerability and impact assessment (VIA) sectors, to discuss and identify best practices regarding the delivery of climate change information, data usage and management, advancing the science etc. Notable outputs include two comprehensive workshop reports and a significant regional contribution to the HadEX3 global land in-situ-based dataset of temperature and precipitation extremes, motivated by work done with the ClimPACT2 software.The upcoming third workshop will endeavour to encourage the uptake of the latest ensemble of climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using CMIP-endorsed tools such as ESMValTool. This will address the need for ASEAN climate change practitioners to upgrade their knowledge of the latest global climate model database. It is anticipated that with continued support from WMO, the series will continue with the Fourth workshop targeting the assessment of downscaling experiments in 2021.

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