scholarly journals Country-resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1005-1040
Author(s):  
Johannes Gütschow ◽  
M. Louise Jeffery ◽  
Annika Günther ◽  
Malte Meinshausen
Keyword(s):  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Climate policy analysis needs reference scenarios to assess emission targets and current trends. When presenting their national climate policies, countries often showcase their target trajectories against fictitious so-called baselines. These counterfactual scenarios are meant to present future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of climate policy. These so-called baselines presented by countries are often of limited use, as they can be exaggerated and as the methodology used to derive them is usually not transparent. Scenarios created by independent modeling groups using integrated assessment models (IAMs) can provide different interpretations of several socio-economic storylines and can provide a more realistic backdrop against which the projected target emission trajectory can be assessed. However, the IAMs are limited in regional resolution. This resolution is further reduced in intercomparison studies, as data for a common set of regions are produced by aggregating the underlying smaller regions. Thus, the data are not readily available for country-specific policy analysis. This gap is closed by downscaling regional IAM scenarios to the country level. The last of such efforts has been performed for the SRES (“Special Report on Emissions Scenarios”) scenarios, which are over a decade old by now. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) scenarios have been downscaled to a grid; however they cover only a few combinations of forcing levels and SSP storylines with only a single model per combination. Here, we provide up-to-date country scenarios, downscaled from the full RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) and SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathway) scenario databases, using results from the SSP GDP (gross domestic product) country model results as drivers for the downscaling process. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3638137 (Gütschow et al., 2020).

scholarly journals Country resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the RCP and SSP scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Gütschow ◽  
M. Louise Jeffery ◽  
Annika Günther ◽  
Malte Meinshausen
Keyword(s):  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract. Climate policy analysis needs reference scenarios to assess emissions targets and current trends. When presenting their national climate policies, countries often showcase their target trajectories against fictitious so-called baselines. These counterfactual scenarios are meant to present future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of climate policy. These so-called baselines presented by countries are often of limited use as they can be exaggerated and the methodology used to derive them is usually not transparent. Scenarios created by independent modeling groups using integrated assessment models (IAMs) can provide different interpretations of several socio-economic storylines and can provide a more realistic backdrop against which the projected target emission trajectory can be assessed. However, the IAMs are limited in regional resolution. This resolution is further reduced in intercomparison studies as data for a common set of regions are produced by aggregating the underlying smaller regions. Thus, the data are not readily available for country-specific policy analysis. This gap is closed by downscaling regional IAM scenarios to country-level. The last of such efforts has been performed for the SRES scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), which are over a decade old by now. CMIP6 scenarios have been downscaled to a grid, however they cover only a few combinations of forcing levels and SSP storylines with only a single model per combination. Here, we provide up to date country scenarios, downscaled from the full RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenario databases, using results from the SSP GDP (Gross Domestic Product) country model results as drivers for the downscaling process. The data is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3638137 (Gütschow et al., 2020).

scholarly journals Experimental protocol for sealevel projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Ice Sheet Modeling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice-sheet-climate models and standalone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea-level change projections to be performed with standalone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea-level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice-ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, as well as present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 6844-6858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan P. Gillett ◽  
Vivek K. Arora ◽  
Damon Matthews ◽  
Myles R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Policy ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Cumulative Co2 Emissions ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract The ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. It is therefore a potentially important tool for climate mitigation policy. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE), defined as the ratio of global-mean warming to cumulative emissions at CO2 doubling in a 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiment, ranges from 0.8 to 2.4 K EgC−1 in 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)—a somewhat broader range than that found in a previous generation of carbon–climate models. Using newly available simulations and a new observational temperature dataset to 2010, TCRE is estimated from observations by dividing an observationally constrained estimate of CO2-attributable warming by an estimate of cumulative carbon emissions to date, yielding an observationally constrained 5%–95% range of 0.7–2.0 K EgC−1.

scholarly journals Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 2331-2368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Anthony J. Payne ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Ice Sheet Modeling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in the Modelling Process; Future Extreme Flood Event Projections Across the UK

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Cameron Ellis ◽  
Annie Visser-Quinn ◽  
Gordon Aitken ◽  
Lindsay Beevers
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Model Chain

With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty.

scholarly journals Is There a Link between Welfare Regime and Attitudes toward Climate Policy Instruments?

2021 ◽  
pp. 073112142199005
Author(s):  
Jukka Sivonen ◽  
Iida Kukkonen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Welfare Regime ◽  
Climate Politics ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Policy Attitudes ◽  
The Relationship

We explore the relationship between welfare regime and climate policy attitudes. The synergy hypothesis suggests that social and environmental policies can reinforce each other. Thus, more universal and generous welfare state model (i.e., welfare regime) is said to provide especially fertile ground for advancing climate policies. Using multilevel modeling and European Social Survey Round 8 data (including 23 countries in Europe and Israel), we test whether this hypothesis applies at the attitudinal level. Moreover, we hypothesize that country-level political trust predicts support for climate policy instruments. The study focuses on three instruments: fossil fuel taxation, subsidizing renewable energy, and banning energy-inefficient household appliances. The results indicate that welfare regime is significantly related to attitudes toward taxation, but less significantly toward subsidizing and banning. Political trust predicted support for all instruments, but the effect was particularly strong for taxation. The results highlight the importance of welfare structures in climate politics.

scholarly journals The EU ETS Top Ten Polluters List as a Policy Tool of Climate Action Organisations

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Andrei Zimakov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Eu Ets ◽  
Common Reference ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Eu

The EU ETS is one of the most important EC instruments to curb CO2 emissions. Various climate action organisations use verified emissions data from EU ETS to calculate top EU polluters lists. These shortlists are actively used in their advocacy strategies as an evidence of national or EU-wide climate policies (under)performance to influence policymaking. However, there is no official EU ETS top ten list released by the EC what weakens the political power of this tool. Addressing possible reasons for EC’s reluctance the paper investigates the correlation between the presence of national enterprises in the EU ETS top ten list and the national climate policy actions over 2008-2019 timeframe. Despite different limitations, the EU ETS top ten is adequately reflecting main developments in national efforts to curb GHG emissions and is pointing out underperforming countries and industries covered by the EU ETS. In the variety of hard and soft EU climate policy instruments, the EU ETS top ten polluters list could feature as an information tool. It is especially important for climate action organizations, providing them with an officially released rating as a common reference point that they could use in their evaluations and political campaigns.

Is 1.5 °C of global warming inevitable and if so, when?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Milinski ◽  
Erich Fischer ◽  
Piers Forster ◽  
John C. Fyfe ◽  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Core ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
New Framework

<p>The likelihood of exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming relative to preindustrial depends on the warming observed so far, anthropogenic warming that may occur in the future, and the degree to which internal variability will either temporarily amplify or attenuate future anthropogenic warming.  Here, we introduce a new framework that estimates the likelihood of exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming wherein uncertainties in each one of these factors is explicitly accounted for.</p><p>In this new framework, we estimate the historical warming, and its uncertainty, from preindustrial to present using the recently-minted HadCRUT5 dataset. Future anthropogenic warming is estimated using an energy balance model tuned to an assessed range of climate sensitivity and applied to each of the core emissions scenarios (i.e. SSPs) underlying the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Finally, we estimate the influence of internal variability using a large ensemble of initial condition simulations. On this basis, we find that the largest uncertainty in estimates of the likelihood of exceeding 1.5°C of global warming is due to model-to-model differences in estimates of future anthropogenic warming, followed by historical warming uncertainty, and then uncertainty due to internal variability.</p><p>Based on our analysis, we find that the earliest time for crossing 1.5 °C of global warming, here defined as the 5% likelihood, is approximately emissions-scenario independent. We define the 1.5 °C threshold without any overshoot: if a time series warms by more than 1.5 °C during any 20-year period before 2100, it is counted as having crossed 1.5 °C. In each considered scenario except SSP5-8.5, the 20-year average period that crosses the 1.5 °C threshold with a 5% likelihood is 2013 to 2032. On the other hand, the 50% likelihood does depend on the scenario, with the SSP5-8.5 crossing occurring in 2018 to 2037 and SSP1-1.9 crossing in 2022 to 2041. All scenarios except SSP1-1.9 have a likelihood close to 100% to cross 1.5 °C global warming before 2100. Even in SSP1-1.9, the scenario with the strongest emission reductions, there is a 71% likelihood to cross 1.5 °C by the end of this century. This implies that even in SSP1-1.9, the world may stay below 1.5 °C only if both climate sensitivity and historical warming are near the lower end of their respective distributions.</p><p>These estimates, with their associated uncertainties, may have major implications for policy decisions.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Models Accumulated Cyclone Energy Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Warming Scenario

Looking at the connection between tropical cyclones and climate changes due to anthropogenic and natural effects, this work aims for information on understanding and how physical aspects of tropical cyclones may change, with a focus on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), in a global warming scenario. In the present climate evaluation, reasonable results were obtained for the ACE index; the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with lower horizontal and vertical resolution showed more difficulties in representing the index, while Max Planck Institute model demonstrated ability to simulate the climate with more accurate, presenting values of both ACE and maximum temperature close to NCEP Reanalysis 2. The MPI-ESM1-2-HR projections suggest that the seasons and their interannual variations in cyclonic activity will be affected by the forcing on the climate system, in this case, under the scenario of high GHG emissions and high challenges to mitigation SSP585. The results indicate to a future with more chances of facing more tropical cyclone activity, plus the mean increase of 3.1°C in maximum daily temperatures, and more heavy cyclones and stronger storms with more frequency over the North Atlantic Ocean may be experimented, as indicated by other studies.

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