scholarly journals Climate Models Accumulated Cyclone Energy Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Warming Scenario

Looking at the connection between tropical cyclones and climate changes due to anthropogenic and natural effects, this work aims for information on understanding and how physical aspects of tropical cyclones may change, with a focus on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), in a global warming scenario. In the present climate evaluation, reasonable results were obtained for the ACE index; the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with lower horizontal and vertical resolution showed more difficulties in representing the index, while Max Planck Institute model demonstrated ability to simulate the climate with more accurate, presenting values of both ACE and maximum temperature close to NCEP Reanalysis 2. The MPI-ESM1-2-HR projections suggest that the seasons and their interannual variations in cyclonic activity will be affected by the forcing on the climate system, in this case, under the scenario of high GHG emissions and high challenges to mitigation SSP585. The results indicate to a future with more chances of facing more tropical cyclone activity, plus the mean increase of 3.1°C in maximum daily temperatures, and more heavy cyclones and stronger storms with more frequency over the North Atlantic Ocean may be experimented, as indicated by other studies.

scholarly journals Climate Projections Over Different Climatic Regions of Afghanistan for Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naser Sediqi ◽  
Vempi Satriya Adi Hendrawan ◽  
Daisuke Komori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract The global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used spatiotemporal projections of precipitation and temperature over Afghanistan for three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5 and 5-8.5) and two future time horizons, early (2020-2059) and late (2060-2099). The Compromise Programming (CP) approach was employed to order the GCMs based on their skill to replicate precipitation and temperature climatology for the reference period (1975-2014). Three models, namely ACCESS-CM2, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and FIO-ESM-2-0, showed the highest skill in simulating all three variables, and therefore, were chosen for the future projections. The ensemble mean of the GCMs showed an increase in maximum temperature by 1.5-2.5oC, 2.7-4.3 oC, and 4.5-5.3 oC and minimum temperature by 1.3-1.8 oC, 2.2-3.5 oC, and 4.6-5.2 oC for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively in the later period. Meanwhile, the changes in precipitation in the range of -15-18%, -36-47% and -40-68% for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The temperature and precipitation were projected to increase in the highlands and decrease over the deserts, indicating dry regions would be drier and wet regions wetter.

scholarly journals Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Freychet ◽  
G. Hegerl ◽  
D. Mitchell ◽  
M. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Emergent Constraint

AbstractIn a warming world, temperature extremes are expected to show a distinguishable change over much of the globe even at 1.5 °C warming, and in many regions this change has already been detected in observations. Although many studies predict an increase in heat extreme events, the magnitude of the change varies greatly among different models even for the same mean warming. This uncertainty has been linked to differences in land–atmosphere feedback across models. Here we show that a significant constraint for future projections can be based on the ability of climate models to accurately simulate the present day variability of daily surface maximum temperature. An emergent constraint on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) models, applied to ERA5 reanalysis, indicates that the best estimate in hot extreme changes by the end of the century could be worse than previously estimated, mostly for tropical and subtropical regions as well as South and East Asia.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Performance of Climate Models in Simulating Global Tropical Cyclones

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yixuan Shen ◽  
Yuan Sun ◽  
Zhong Zhong ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Original Method ◽  
New Method ◽  
Comprehensive Method ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The capability to reproduce tropical cyclones (TCs) realistically is important for climate models. A recent study proposed a method for quantitative evaluation of climate model simulations of TC track characteristics in a specific basin, which can be used to rank multiple climate models based on their performance. As an extension of this method, we propose a more comprehensive method here to evaluate the capability of climate models in simulating multi-faceted characteristics of global TCs. Compared with the original method, the new method considers the capability of climate models in simulating not only TC tracks but also TC intensity and frequency. Moreover, the new method is applicable to the global domain. In this study, we apply this method to evaluate the performance of eight climate models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. It is found that, for the overall performance of global TC simulations, the CSIRO Mk3.6.0 model performs the best, followed by GFDL CM3, MPI-ESM-LR, and MRI-CGCM3 models. Moreover, the capability of each of these models in simulating global TCs differs substantially over different ocean basins.

scholarly journals Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Sgubin ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Sybren Drijfhout ◽  
Yannick Mary ◽  
Amine Bennabi
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Adaptation Policy ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.

scholarly journals Narrowing the spread in CMIP5 model projections of air-sea CO2 fluxes

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Jianbin Huang ◽  
Yong Luo ◽  
Zongci Zhao
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Constrained Estimation ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Ocean Carbon

Abstract Large spread appears in the projection of air-sea CO2 fluxes using the latest simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Here, two methods are applied to narrow this spread in 13 CMIP5 models. One method involves model selection based on the ability of models to reproduce the observed air-sea CO2 fluxes from 1980 to 2005. The other method involves constrained estimation based on the strong relationship between the historical and future air-sea CO2 fluxes. The estimated spread of the projected air-sea CO2 fluxes is effectively reduced by using these two approaches. These two approaches also show great agreement in the global ocean and three regional oceans of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, including the average state and evolution characteristics. Based on the projections of the two approaches, the global ocean carbon uptake will increase in the first half of the 21st century then remain relatively stable and is projected to be 3.68–4.57 PgC/yr at the end of 21st century. The projections indicate that the increase in the CO2 uptake by the oceans will cease at the year of approximately 2070.

scholarly journals NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy M. Klavans ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Amy C. Clement ◽  
Lisa N. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill

AbstractThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models.

scholarly journals Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7187-7197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Cheng ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Dongxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.

scholarly journals Advances in Collaborative Documentation Support for CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Pascoe ◽  
David Hassell ◽  
Martina Stockhause ◽  
Mark Greenslade
Keyword(s):  
Science Communication ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Automatic Generation ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Data Citation ◽  
On Line ◽  
Intercomparison Project

<div>The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project aims to nurture an ecosystem of tools & services in support of Earth System documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. Such an ecosystem enables the scientific community to better understand and utilise Earth system model data.</div><div>The ES-DOC infrastructure for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) modelling groups to describe their climate models and make the documentation available on-line has been available for 18 months, and more recently the automatic generation of documentation of every published simulation has meant that every CMIP6 dataset within the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is now immediately connected to the ES-DOC description of the entire workflow that created it, via a “further info URL”.</div><div>The further info URL is a landing page from which all of the relevant CMIP6 documentation relevant to the data may be accessed, including experimental design, model formulation and ensemble description, as well as providing links to the data citation information.</div><div>These DOI landing pages are part of the Citation Service, provided by DKRZ. Data citation information is also available independently through the ESGF Search portal or in the DataCite search or Google’s dataset search. It provides users of CMIP6 data with the formal citation that should accompany any use of the datasets that comprise their analysis.</div><div>ES-DOC services and the Citation Service form a CMIP6 project  collaboration, and depend upon structured documentation provided by the scientific community. Structured scientific metadata has an important role in science communication, however it’s creation and collation exacts a cost in time, energy and attention.  We discuss progress towards a balance between the ease of information collection and the complexity of our information handling structures.</div><div> </div><div>CMIP6: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/</div><div>ES-DOC: https://es-doc.org/</div><div>Further Info URL: https://es-doc.org/cmip6-ensembles-further-info-url</div><div> <p>Citation Service: http://cmip6cite.wdc-climate.de</p> </div>

scholarly journals Comparing dynamical, stochastic and combined downscaling approaches – lessons from a case study in the Mediterranean region

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 9847-9884
Author(s):  
N. Guyennon ◽  
E. Romano ◽  
I. Portoghese ◽  
F. Salerno ◽  
S. Calmanti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Quantile Transform

Abstract. Various downscaling techniques have been developed to bridge the scale gap between global climate models (GCMs) and finer scales required to assess hydrological impacts of climate change. Such techniques may be grouped into two downscaling approaches: the deterministic dynamical downscaling (DD) and the stochastic statistical downscaling (SD). Although SD has been traditionally seen as an alternative to DD, recent works on statistical downscaling have aimed to combine the benefits of these two approaches. The overall objective of this study is to examine the relative benefits of each downscaling approach and their combination in making the GCM scenarios suitable for basin scale hydrological applications. The case study presented here focuses on the Apulia region (South East of Italy, surface area about 20 000 km2), characterized by a typical Mediterranean climate; the monthly cumulated precipitation and monthly mean of daily minimum and maximum temperature distribution were examined for the period 1953–2000. The fifth-generation ECHAM model from the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology was adopted as GCM. The DD was carried out with the Protheus system (ENEA), while the SD was performed through a monthly quantile-quantile transform. The SD resulted efficient in reducing the mean bias in the spatial distribution at both annual and seasonal scales, but it was not able to correct the miss-modeled non-stationary components of the GCM dynamics. The DD provided a partial correction by enhancing the trend spatial heterogeneity and time evolution predicted by the GCM, although the comparison with observations resulted still underperforming. The best results were obtained through the combination of both DD and SD approaches.

scholarly journals Projections of Cold Air Outbreaks In CMIP6 Earth System Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik T. Smith ◽  
Scott Sheridan
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Complex Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Cold Air Outbreaks

Abstract Historical and future simulated temperature data from five climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparing Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to understand how climate change might alter cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the future. Three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP 1 – 2.6, SSP 2 – 4.5, and SSP 5 – 8.5 are examined to identify potential fluctuations in CAOs across the globe between 2015 and 2054. Though CAOs may remain persistent or even increase in some regions through 2040, all five climate models show CAOs disappearing by 2054 based on current climate percentiles. Climate models were able to accurately simulate the spatial distribution and trends of historical CAOs, but there were large errors in the simulated interannual frequency of CAOs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Fluctuations in complex processes, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, may be contributing to each model’s inability to simulate historical CAOs in these regions.

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