scholarly journals Sensitivity of air quality modelling to different emission inventories: a case study over Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Thunis ◽  
Monica Crippa ◽  
Cornelis Cuvelier ◽  
Diego Guizzardi ◽  
Alexander De Meij ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Activity Level ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Emission Inventories ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Air Quality Modelling ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Yearly Average ◽  
Global Coverage

Abstract. In this paper we run the EMEP air quality model with 3 different emission inventories at 2015, that is to say using CAMS, EMEP emissions, and EDGAR. The EMEP model has been run for the entire year 2015, and resulting concentration results have been compared with background monitoring stations. Results show that the air quality model, run with the 3 emission inventories, provide similar results despite the emission differences. More in details, EDGAR is providing slightly better validation results for PM2.5, while the EMEP emissions are slightly better to model yearly average NO2. The main differences among the model applications arise in the Eastern part of Europe, where the values between the officially estimated emissions and those independently estimated by EDGAR are higher. Results suggest that EDGAR, despite being a methodology aimed at global coverage, with independent sources for activity level, technologies and emission factors and generic gridding practices, can be effectively used for air quality modelling in Europe. The EDGAR dataset (v5.0) used in this paper is available at: https://doi.org/10.2904/JRC_DATASET_EDGAR (link: EDGAR v5.0 Global Air Pollutant Emissions, Crippa et al., 2020a).

scholarly journals Ensemble Predictions of Air Pollutants in China in 2013 for Health Effects Studies Using WRF/CMAQ Modeling System with Four Emission Inventories

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianlin Hu ◽  
Xun Li ◽  
Lin Huang ◽  
Qi Ying ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Emission Inventories ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Future Health

Abstract. Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effects analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used tools to provide detailed information of spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of pollutants. The accuracy of CTMs' predictions in China is largely affected by the uncertainties of public available emission inventories. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) were used in this study to simulate air quality in China in 2013. Four sets of simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 with the four inventories generally meet the criteria of model performance, but difference exists in different pollutants and different regions among the inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories under the constraint that sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations from all the cities was minimized. The ensemble annual concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFE) of the ensemble predicted annual PM2.5 at the 60 cities are −0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (−0.25–−0.16) and MFE (0.26–0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual 1-hour peak O3 (O3-1 h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06–0.19 and MNE of 0.16–0.22 of the individual predictions. The ensemble predictions agree better with observations with daily, monthly, and annual averaging times in all regions of China for both PM2.5 and O3-1 h. The study demonstrates that ensemble predictions by combining predictions from individual emission inventories can improve the accuracy of predicted temporal and spatial distributions of air pollutants. This study is the first ensemble model study in China using multiple emission inventories and the results are publicly available for future health effects studies.

scholarly journals Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Appel ◽  
G. A. Pouliot ◽  
H. Simon ◽  
G. Sarwar ◽  
H. O. T. Pye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Trace Metals ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Model Version

Abstract. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transformation, transport, and fate of the many different air pollutant species that comprise particulate matter (PM), including dust (or soil). The CMAQ model version 5.0 (CMAQv5.0) has several enhancements over the previous version of the model for estimating the emission and transport of dust, including the ability to track the specific elemental constituents of dust and have the model-derived concentrations of those elements participate in chemistry. The latest version of the model also includes a parameterization to estimate emissions of dust due to wind action. The CMAQv5.0 modeling system was used to simulate the entire year 2006 for the continental United States, and the model estimates were evaluated against daily surface-based measurements from several air quality networks. The CMAQ modeling system overall did well replicating the observed soil concentrations in the western United States (mean bias generally around ±0.5 μg m−3); however, the model consistently overestimated the observed soil concentrations in the eastern United States (mean bias generally between 0.5–1.5 μg m−3), regardless of season. The performance of the individual trace metals was highly dependent on the network, species, and season, with relatively small biases for Fe, Al, Si, and Ti throughout the year at the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites, while Ca, K, and Mn were overestimated and Mg underestimated. For the urban Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) sites, Fe, Mg, and Mn, while overestimated, had comparatively better performance throughout the year than the other trace metals, which were consistently overestimated, including very large overestimations of Al (380%), Ti (370%) and Si (470%) in the fall. An underestimation of nighttime mixing in the urban areas appears to contribute to the overestimation of trace metals. Removing the anthropogenic fugitive dust (AFD) emissions and the effects of wind-blown dust (WBD) lowered the model soil concentrations. However, even with both AFD emissions and WBD effects removed, soil concentrations were still often overestimated, suggesting that there are other sources of errors in the modeling system that contribute to the overestimation of soil components. Efforts are underway to improve both the nighttime mixing in urban areas and the spatial and temporal distribution of dust-related emission sources in the emissions inventory.

scholarly journals Enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity in simulating air quality with updated emission inventories for power plants especially for haze periods over East China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Tianliang Zhao ◽  
Sunling Gong ◽  
Shaofei Kong ◽  
Lili Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Environment ◽  
Pollutant Emission ◽  
East China ◽  
Emission Inventories

Abstract. Air pollutant emissions play a determinant role in deteriorating air quality. However, an uncertainty in emission inventories is still the key problem for modeling air pollution. In this study, an updated emission inventory of coal-fired power plants (UEIPP) based on online monitoring data in Jiangsu province of East China for the year of 2012 was implemented in the widely used Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). By employing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), two simulations were executed to assess the atmospheric environmental change by using the original MEIC emission inventory and the MEIC inventory with the UEIPP. A synthetic analysis shows that (1) compared to the power emissions of MEIC, PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NOx were lower, and CO, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and NMVOCs were higher in the UEIPP, reflecting a large discrepancy in the power emissions over East China; (2) In accordance with the changes of UEIPP, the modeled concentrations were reduced for SO2 and NO2, and increased for most areas of primary OC, BC and CO, whose concentrations in atmosphere are highly dependent on emission changes. (3) Interestingly, when the UEIPP was used, the atmospheric oxidizing capacity significantly reinforced, reflecting by increased oxidizing agents, e.g. O3 and OH, thus directly strengthened the chemical production from SO2 and NOx to sulfate and nitrate, which offset the reduction of primary PM2.5 emissions especially in the haze days. This study indicated the importance of updating air pollutant emission inventories in simulating the complex atmospheric environment changes with the implications on air quality and environmental changes.

scholarly journals Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1859-1899 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Appel ◽  
G. A. Pouliot ◽  
H. Simon ◽  
G. Sarwar ◽  
H. O. T. Pye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Trace Metals ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Model Version

Abstract. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transformation, transport and fate of the many different air pollutant species that comprise particulate matter (PM), including dust (or soil). The CMAQ model version 5.0 (CMAQv5.0) has several enhancements over the previous version of the model for estimating the emission and transport of dust, including the ability to track the specific elemental constituents of dust and have the model-derived concentrations of those elements participate in chemistry. The latest version of the model also includes a parameterization to estimate emissions of dust due to wind action. The CMAQv5.0 modeling system was used to simulate the entire year 2006 for the continental United States, and the model estimates were evaluated against daily surface based measurements from several air quality networks. The CMAQ modeling system generally did well replicating the observed soil concentrations in the western United States; however the model consistently overestimated the observed soil concentrations in the eastern United States, regardless of season. The performance of the individual trace metals was generally good at the rural network sites, with relatively small biases for Fe, Al, Si and Ti throughout the year, while Ca, K and Mn were overestimated and Mg underestimated. For the urban sites, Fe, Mg and Mn, while overestimated, had comparatively better performance throughout the year than the other trace metals, which were consistently overestimated, including very large overestimations of Al, Ti and Si in the fall. An underestimation of nighttime mixing in the urban areas appears to contribute to the overestimation of trace metals. Removing the anthropogenic fugitive dust (AFD) emissions and the effects of wind-blown dust (WBD) lowered the model soil concentrations. However, even with both AFD emissions and WBD effects removed, soil concentrations were still often overestimated, suggesting that there are other sources of errors in the modeling system that contribute to the overestimation of soil components. Efforts are underway to improve both the nighttime mixing in urban areas and the spatial and temporal distribution of dust related emissions sources in the emissions inventory.

scholarly journals ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 263-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Ran ◽  
D. H. Loughlin ◽  
D. Yang ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
B. H. Baek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
County Level ◽  
Air Quality Model

Abstract. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census Division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

Simulation of Air Quality and Pollution Control Countermeasures of Chengdu Urban Agglomeration

2012 ◽  
Vol 610-613 ◽  
pp. 1387-1397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Yong Wang ◽  
Nan Chen ◽  
Xiao Juan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Pollutant Concentration ◽  
Pollutant Emission ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Allowable Limit

The CMAQ model (Community Multiscale Air Quality model) was used to stimulate the atmospheric environmental quality of Chengdu urban agglomeration. The result shows that air pollutant concentration in some zones of the urban agglomeration is higher than the allowable limit of the national grade II standard. Fortunately, such zones only cover a small area. Zones where the average daily and annual PM10 concentration is higher than the allowable limit only account for 4% of the total area of Chengdu urban agglomeration. Less than 1% of the total area has the concentration of other pollutants higher than the limit. Zones with pollutant concentration higher than the limit are mainly distributed in Chengdu City, Mianyang City, and Meishan City. Pollutants emitted from the cities of Chengdu urban agglomeration shift on to and interact with each other. Therefore, the air pollutant concentration of one city is partially attributable to pollutants emitted from its own pollution sources and a part of or even most of it results from pollutants from other cities. For example, regarding PM10 in air of Deyang City, only 12% comes from its own pollution sources, and 55% comes from pollution sources of Chengdu, and the rest 29% comes from pollution sources of Mianyang. Regarding Sulfur dioxide in air of Chengdu, 59% comes from local pollution sources of Chengdu and 23% comes from pollution sources of Deyang. Other pollutants are also subject to such a rule. As in the urban agglomeration, there are zones where pollutant concentration is higher than the allowable limit, the existing pollution sources must be further controlled by setting reduction target according to the total capacity. The pollutant emission should be reduced by means of eliminating backward productivity, adjusting structure and layout of industries, and controlling pollution sources in depth to effectively improve the regional environmental air quality. At the same time, as pollutants emitted from the cities interact with each other, the 5 cities must sign a joint prevention and control agreement to collaborate in control of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, smoke and dust, and organic pollutants.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on air quality in southern California: implications for future control policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 8693-8708
Author(s):  
Zhe Jiang ◽  
Hongrong Shi ◽  
Bin Zhao ◽  
Yu Gu ◽  
Yifang Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Activity Level ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Chemical Compositions ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pm2.5 Concentration

Abstract. In response to the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), California issued statewide stay-at-home orders, bringing about abrupt and dramatic reductions in air pollutant emissions. This crisis offers us an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of emission reductions in terms of air quality. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in combination with surface observations to study the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures on air quality in southern California. Based on activity level statistics and satellite observations, we estimate the sectoral emission changes during the lockdown. Due to the reduced emissions, the population-weighted concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decrease by 15 % in southern California. The emission reductions contribute 68 % of the PM2.5 concentration decrease before and after the lockdown, while meteorology variations contribute the remaining 32 %. Among all chemical compositions, the PM2.5 concentration decrease due to emission reductions is dominated by nitrate and primary components. For O3 concentrations, the emission reductions cause a decrease in rural areas but an increase in urban areas; the increase can be offset by a 70 % emission reduction in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These findings suggest that a strengthened control on primary PM2.5 emissions and a well-balanced control on nitrogen oxides and VOC emissions are needed to effectively and sustainably alleviate PM2.5 and O3 pollution in southern California.

scholarly journals New approach for optimal electricity planning and dispatching with hourly time-scale air quality and health considerations

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (35) ◽  
pp. 10884-10889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Y. Kerl ◽  
Wenxian Zhang ◽  
Juan B. Moreno-Cruz ◽  
Athanasios Nenes ◽  
Matthew J. Realff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Electricity Planning

Integrating accurate air quality modeling with decision making is hampered by complex atmospheric physics and chemistry and its coupling with atmospheric transport. Existing approaches to model the physics and chemistry accurately lead to significant computational burdens in computing the response of atmospheric concentrations to changes in emissions profiles. By integrating a reduced form of a fully coupled atmospheric model within a unit commitment optimization model, we allow, for the first time to our knowledge, a fully dynamical approach toward electricity planning that accurately and rapidly minimizes both cost and health impacts. The reduced-form model captures the response of spatially resolved air pollutant concentrations to changes in electricity-generating plant emissions on an hourly basis with accuracy comparable to a comprehensive air quality model. The integrated model allows for the inclusion of human health impacts into cost-based decisions for power plant operation. We use the new capability in a case study of the state of Georgia over the years of 2004–2011, and show that a shift in utilization among existing power plants during selected hourly periods could have provided a health cost savings of $175.9 million dollars for an additional electricity generation cost of $83.6 million in 2007 US dollars (USD2007). The case study illustrates how air pollutant health impacts can be cost-effectively minimized by intelligently modulating power plant operations over multihour periods, without implementing additional emissions control technologies.

scholarly journals What Can We Expect from Data Assimilation for Air Quality Forecast? Part II: Analysis with a Semi-Real Case

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 1433-1448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertrand Bessagnet ◽  
Laurent Menut ◽  
Florian Couvidat ◽  
Frédérik Meleux ◽  
Guillaume Siour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Vertical Direction ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Air Quality Forecast ◽  
Maximum Benefit

AbstractAssimilation of observational data from ground stations and satellites has been identified as a technique to improve air quality model results. This study is an evaluation of the maximum benefit expected from data assimilation in chemical transport models. Various tests are performed under real meteorological conditions; the injection of various subsets of “simulated observational data” at the initial state of a forecasting period is analyzed in terms of benefit on selected criteria. This observation dataset is generated by a simulation with perturbed input data. Several criteria are defined to analyze the simulations leading to the definition of a “tipping time” to compare the behavior of simulations. Assimilating three-dimensional data instead of ground observations clearly adds value to the forecast. For the studied period and considering the expected best favorable data assimilation experiment, the maximum benefit is higher for particulate matter (PM) with tipping times exceeding 80 h; for ozone (O3) the gain is on average around 30 h. Assimilating O3 concentrations with a delta calculated on the first level and propagated over the vertical direction provides better results on O3 mean concentrations when compared with the expected best experiment corresponding to the injection of the O3 “observations” 3D dataset, but for maximum O3 concentrations the opposite behavior is observed. If data assimilation of secondary pollutant concentrations provides an improvement, assimilation of primary pollutant emissions can have beneficial impacts when compared with an assimilation of concentrations, after several days on secondary pollutants like O3 or nitrate concentrations and more quickly for the emitted primary pollutants. An assimilation of ammonia concentrations has slightly better performances on nitrate, ammonium, and PM concentrations relative to the assimilation of nitrogen or sulfur dioxides.

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