scholarly journals From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: MAGICC (v7.5.1) – MESMER (v0.8.1) coupling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lea Beusch ◽  
Zebedee Nicholls ◽  
Lukas Gudmundsson ◽  
Mathias Hauser ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Spatially Resolved ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Uncertainty Space

Abstract. Producing targeted climate information at the local scale, including major sources of climate change projection uncertainty for diverse emissions scenarios, is essential to support climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the first chain of computationally efficient Earth System Model (ESM) emulators allowing to rapidly translate greenhouse gas emission pathways into spatially resolved annual-mean temperature anomaly field time series, accounting for both forced climate response and natural variability uncertainty at the local scale. By combining the global-mean, emissions-driven emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, ESM-specific as well as constrained probabilistic emulated ensembles can be derived. This emulation chain can hence build on and extend large multi-ESM ensembles such as the ones produced within the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The main extensions are threefold. (i) A more thorough sampling of the forced climate response and the natural variability uncertainty is possible with millions of emulated realizations being readily created. (ii) The same uncertainty space can be sampled for any emission pathway, which is not the case in CMIP6, where some of the most societally relevant strong mitigation scenarios have been run by only a small number of ESMs. (iii) Other lines of evidence to constrain future projections, including observational constraints, can be introduced, which helps to refine projected future ranges beyond the multi-ESM ensemble's estimates. In addition to presenting results from the coupled MAGICC-MESMER emulator chain, we carry out an extensive validation of MESMER, which is trained on and applied to multiple emission pathways for the first time in this study. The newly developed MAGICC-MESMER coupled emulator will allow unprecedented assessments of the implications of manifold emissions pathways at regional scale.

scholarly journals Coffee, Migration and Climatic Changes: Challenging Adaptation Dichotomic Narratives in a Transborder Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 323
Author(s):  
Celia Ruiz-de-Oña ◽  
Patricia Rivera-Castañeda ◽  
Yair Merlín-Uribe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Central American ◽  
Adaptation Policy ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Coffee Farmers

The narratives of migration as adaptation and in situ adaptation are well established in mainstream adaptation policy and are usually presented as independent and opposing trends of action. A common and fundamental element of such narratives is the depoliticized conception of both migration and adaptation. Using a trans-scalar approach, we address the migration–coffee–climate change nexus: first at a regional scale, at the conflictive border of Guatemala–Mexico, to show the contradiction between the current Central American migratory crisis and the narrative of migration as adaptation; second, at a local scale and from an ethnographic perspective, we focus on the process of in situ adaptation in shade-grown coffee plots of smallholder coffee farmers in the Tacaná Volcano cross-border region, between Chiapas and Guatemala. We argue that the dichotomy “in situ adaptation” versus “migration as adaptation” is not useful to capture the intertwined and political nature of both narratives, as illustrated in the case of the renovation of smallholders’ coffee plots in a context of climatic changes. We provide elements to contribute towards the repolitization of adaptation from an integral perspective.

A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 4618-4636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengpeng Sun ◽  
Daniel B. Walton ◽  
Alex Hall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Using the hybrid downscaling technique developed in part I of this study, temperature changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2000) in the greater Los Angeles region are downscaled for two future time slices: midcentury (2041–60) and end of century (2081–2100). Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered, corresponding to greenhouse gas emission reductions over coming decades (RCP2.6) and to continued twenty-first-century emissions increases (RCP8.5). All available global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are downscaled to provide likelihood and uncertainty estimates. By the end of century under RCP8.5, a distinctly new regional climate state emerges: average temperatures will almost certainly be outside the interannual variability range seen in the baseline. Except for the highest elevations and a narrow swath very near the coast, land locations will likely see 60–90 additional extremely hot days per year, effectively adding a new season of extreme heat. In mountainous areas, a majority of the many baseline days with freezing nighttime temperatures will most likely not occur. According to a similarity metric that measures daily temperature variability and the climate change signal, the RCP8.5 end-of-century climate will most likely be only about 50% similar to the baseline. For midcentury under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and end of century under RCP2.6, these same measures also indicate a detectable though less significant climatic shift. Therefore, while measures reducing global emissions would not prevent climate change at this regional scale in the coming decades, their impact would be dramatic by the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Conservation Agriculture: An Agroecological Approach to Adapting and Mitigating Climate Change Impacts on Malawi’s Agriculture

2020 ◽  
pp. 88-96
Author(s):  
Adewale M. Ogunmodede
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Nutrient Use Efficiency ◽  
Conservation Agriculture ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

Although Africa’s contribution to the world’s greenhouse gas emission is the smallest compared to other continents, yet they tend to be affected most by the variability in Climate. Malawi is not an exception to this climate change, as they are not just faced with rising temperatures and variable rainfall patterns, but with reoccurring droughts and severe flooding. Agriculture has been noted to contribute significantly to not only climate change but also has significant impacts on global warming through its greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, not all farming systems impact negatively on climate change. Conservation Agriculture is a farming system that encourages no or minimum soil disturbance, maintenance of a permanent soil cover, and diversification of crop species. These three interlinked principles combined with good agricultural practices promote biodiversity and normal biotic processes, both on and under the ground surface, thereby increasing the productivity and nutrient use efficiency of water, into a more resilient farming system which will help sustain and improve agricultural production. This review looks at Conservation Agriculture practices in the Machinga Agricultural Development Division of Malawi and its role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper shows that Conservation Agriculture has played an active role in the adaptation and mitigation of climate change effect by reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions but suggested there is a need for the government to formulate a CA framework that is founded on the three interlinked principles and not just based on soil and water conservation principles which are currently being advocated and practised.

scholarly journals Can Regional-Scale Governance and Planning Support Transformative Adaptation? A Study of Two Places

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 6978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikael Granberg ◽  
Karyn Bosomworth ◽  
Susie Moloney ◽  
Ann-Catrin Kristianssen ◽  
Hartmut Fünfgeld
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Transformative Change ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Governance Processes ◽  
Transformative Adaptation

The idea that climate change adaptation is best leveraged at the local scale is a well-institutionalized script in both research and formal governance. This idea is based on the argument that the local scale is where climate change impacts are “felt” and experienced. However, sustainable and just climate futures require transformations in systems, norms, and cultures that underpin and reinforce our unsustainable practices and development pathways, not just “local” action. Governance interventions are needed to catalyse such shifts, connecting multilevel and multiscale boundaries of knowledge, values, levels and organizational remits. We critically reflect on current adaptation governance processes in Victoria, Australia and the Gothenburg region, Sweden to explore whether regional-scale governance can provide just as important leverage for adaptation as local governance, by identifying and addressing intersecting gaps and challenges in adaptation at local levels. We suggest that regional-scale adaptation offers possibilities for transformative change because they can identify, connect, and amplify small-scale (local) wins and utilize this collective body of knowledge to challenge and advocate for unblocking stagnated, institutionalized policies and practices, and support transformative change.

scholarly journals Spatial Planning of Green Infrastructure for Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change at a Regional Scale

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10525
Author(s):  
Andrés M. García ◽  
Inés Santé ◽  
Xurxo Loureiro ◽  
David Miranda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Infrastructure Planning ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Multi Criteria Evaluation ◽  
Protected Natural Areas

Green infrastructure has acquired greater importance in recent years in relation to climate change adaptation. Green infrastructure planning has been identified as a new and innovative means of land planning that can contribute to preventing the impacts of climate change. However, this has been explored more thoroughly in urban areas than at the regional scale. The present study proposes a methodology including multi-criteria evaluation techniques for assessing the ESS involved in the fight against climate change and for the spatial planning of multifunctional green infrastructure areas based on the results of this assessment. Application of the methodology for green infrastructure planning aimed at confronting climate change at landscape level in the region of Galicia (NW Spain) successfully delimited multifunctional green infrastructure zones. Results show that delimited zones have a higher provision potential for more ESS than protected natural areas and areas that are not part of the green infrastructure.

Rescaling political ecology? World regional approaches to climate change in the Asia Pacific

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona P. Miller ◽  
Andrew McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Political Ecology ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Single Issue ◽  
Climate Politics ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Political Approach ◽  
Potential Benefits

The potential benefits of developing a research agenda that explicitly reconstructs a world regional political ecology are explored through a focus on climate change mitigation and adaptation in the Asia Pacific. Through an examination of scale in political ecology, world regional political ecology is identified as a promising analytical and political approach to understanding and addressing the current challenges associated with climate change. In light of this, political ecology scholarship in the region is reviewed to identify current strengths and lacunae. Whilst there is indeed a rich tradition of political ecology research across the Asia Pacific, much of this research focuses upon local/national/global dynamics with relatively little attention devoted to supra-national processes, missing important social, political, financial and material processes constructed at the world regional scale. It is argued that a world regional political ecology of climate change should build upon strengths in previous political ecology work yet extend these in three generative directions: comparative analysis of place-based, single issue research; generation of diverse counter-narratives at the regional scale; and consideration of flows and networks. We argue a rescaled political ecology that incorporates world regional scales opens a range of possibilities for practicing and pursuing more just and progressive climate politics and initiatives.

scholarly journals Role of Biogas in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31
Author(s):  
Anjana Sharma ◽  
Raju Laudari ◽  
Kedar Rijal ◽  
Lokendra Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Fuel Wood ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Index Value ◽  
Change Mitigation

The study was carried out to analyze the role of biogas in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The study is based on the perception of 108 households of Muralibhanjyang VDC of Dhading district, Nepal. The study showed that amount of greenhouse gas emission was reduced by 3.82 tons per household per year of carbon dioxide equivalent by reducing 65.10% of fuel wood consumption per household per year. It was found that biogas has an effective role in climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gases emission. On installing 352 biogas plants, the number of trees saved in VDC was estimated to be 4083 per year which helps in mitigation and adaptation too. Adaptive capacity was determined on the basis of five different assets by giving the index value for each indicator ranging from one to four, which indicates low to very high value. The indicators of adaptive capacity for human, natural and social assets were obtained with values 2, 3.2, 3 and 1.2, 2.3, 2.1 for biogas users and non-users respectively. The physical and financial assets were obtained similar for both users and non-users (i.e. 3). There was significant difference between the adaptive capacity of biogas users and non-users where the average adaptive capacity value for biogas users was found to be 3.24 (high) and that of non-users was 2.8 (medium to high). It can be said that biogas plays a significant role in climate change adaptation by increasing adaptive capacity.

scholarly journals Robustness of Future Changes in Local Precipitation Extremes

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (17) ◽  
pp. 4280-4297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
David P. Rowell ◽  
Richard G. Jones ◽  
Erasmo Buonomo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Noise

Abstract Reliable projections of future changes in local precipitation extremes are essential for informing policy decisions regarding mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this paper, the extent to which the natural variability of the climate affects one’s ability to project the anthropogenically forced component of change in daily precipitation extremes across Europe is examined. A three-member ensemble of the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3H) is used and a statistical framework is applied to estimate the uncertainty due to the full spectrum of climate variability. In particular, the results and understanding presented here suggest that annual to multidecadal natural variability may contribute significant uncertainty. For this ensemble projection, extreme precipitation changes at the grid-box level are found to be discernible above climate noise over much of northern and central Europe in winter, and parts of northern and southern Europe in summer. The ability to quantify the change to a reasonable level of accuracy is largely limited to regions in northern Europe. In general, where climate noise has a significant component varying on decadal time scales, single 30-yr climate change projections are insufficient to infer changes in the extreme tail of the underlying precipitation distribution. In this context, the need for ensembles of integrations is demonstrated and the relative effectiveness of spatial pooling and averaging for generating robust signals of extreme precipitation change is also explored. The key conclusions are expected to apply more generally to other models and forcing scenarios.

Linking stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways for policy making in human-water systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Alizadeh ◽  
Jan Adamowski ◽  
Azhar Inam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Environmental Problems ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The World ◽  
Narrative Storylines

<p>Climate change has caused many environmental problems, as well as water and food insecurity, and health and social impacts in many parts of the world, and especially in the world’s vulnerable regions such as developing countries. Studies have demonstrated the impacts of socio-economic and climate changes and how they result in water and environmental problems at global and regional scales. Socio-economic variation and climatic change influence the dynamic interaction of human and water systems, and our ability to address environmental problems at sub-regional scales. From this perspective, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as a form of alternative development scenarios, were recently introduced to help decision-makers to cope with uncertain futures and improve their policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To take advantage of SSP scenarios for policy guidance at regional and national scales, it is necessary to explore the socio-economic feedbacks and water management policies informed by different sub-regional knowledge sharing through stakeholders’ narratives. In this study, we link SSP scenarios developed with regional stakeholders using a coupled socio-economic and environmental model, in conjunction with stakeholder-generated narrative storylines for a sub-region of Pakistan. The framework allows for linking corresponding scenarios across different uncertainty levels to improve regional scale policy making, while providing knowledge regarding the future of human-water systems under a range of plausible future climate and socio-economic scenarios.</p>

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