Efficient ensemble generation for uncertain correlated parameters
in atmospheric chemical models
Abstract. Atmospheric chemical forecasts highly rely on various model parameters, which are often insufficiently known, as emission rates and deposition velocities. However, a reliable estimation of resulting uncertainties by an ensemble of forecasts is impaired by the high-dimensionality of the system. This study presents a novel approach to efficiently perturb atmospheric-chemical model parameters according to their leading coupled uncertainties. The algorithm is based on the idea that the forecast model acts as a dynamical system inducing multi-variational correlations of model uncertainties. The specific algorithm presented in this study is designed for parameters which depend on local environmental conditions and consists of three major steps: (1) an efficient assessment of various sources of model uncertainties spanned by independent sensitivities, (2) an efficient extraction of leading coupled uncertainties using eigenmode decomposition, and (3) an efficient generation of perturbations for high-dimensional parameter fields by the Karhunen-Loéve expansion. Due to their perceived simulation challenge the method has been applied to biogenic emissions of five trace gases, considering state-dependent sensitivities to local atmospheric and terrestrial conditions. Rapidly decreasing eigenvalues state high spatial- and cross-correlations of regional biogenic emissions, which are represented by a low number of dominating components. Consequently, leading uncertainties can be covered by low number of perturbations enabling ensemble sizes of the order of 10 members. This demonstrates the suitability of the algorithm for efficient ensemble generation for high-dimensional atmospheric chemical parameters.