scholarly journals Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1233-1244 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Multsch ◽  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
M. Kirby ◽  
N. R. Viney ◽  
H.-G. Frede ◽  
...  

Abstract. Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 7525-7558
Author(s):  
S. Multsch ◽  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
M. Kirby ◽  
N. R. Viney ◽  
H.-G. Frede ◽  
...  

Abstract. Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.


Author(s):  
Javad Gilanipour ◽  
Bahram Gholizadeh

In this paper, Rice water requirement and irrigation water requirement in Amol agro meteorological Station in 2016-2045 are forecasted based on the projected meteorological data of Hadcm3 under A2 scenario. Rice water requirements are estimated by using crop coefficient approach. Reference evapotranspiration are calculated by FAO Penman-Monteith method. Moreover, the irrigation water requirements are simulated by calibrated CROPWAT model using the meteorological parameters. The results show that both crop water requirement and irrigation water requirement present downward trend in the future. In 2016-2045, the rice water requirement and irrigation water requirement decrease by more than 9.9% under A2 scenario, respectively. Furthermore, the precipitation rise may be the main reason for the decrease in crop water requirement, while significant decrease of irrigation water requirement should be attributed to combined action of rising precipitation and a slight increase in temperature.


2013 ◽  
Vol 340 ◽  
pp. 961-965
Author(s):  
Xin Hua Wang ◽  
Mei Hua Guo ◽  
Hui Mei Liu

According to Kunming 1980-2010 monthly weather data and CROPWAT software and the corresponding crop data, crop water requirements and irrigation water use are calculated. By frequency analysis, irrigation water requirement was get for different guaranteed rate. The results show that: corn, potatoes, tobacco, and soybeans average crop water requirements were 390.7mm, 447.9mm, 361.8mm and 328.4mm, crop water dispersion coefficient is small, period effective rainfall during crop growth in most of the year can meet the crop water requirements, so irrigation water demand is small. While the multi-year average crop water requirements were 400.8mm, 353.5mm, 394.3mm for small spring crops of wheat, beans, rape. Because the effective rainfall for these crops during growth period is relative less, crop irrigation water requirements for small spring crop is much. Vegetables and flowers are plant around the year, so the crop water and irrigation water requirements are the largest.


2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 2059-2081
Author(s):  
Richard G. Allen ◽  
Clarence W. Robison ◽  
Justin Huntington ◽  
James L. Wright ◽  
Ayse Kilic

HighlightsThe FAO-56 dual crop coefficient procedure was applied over the entire agricultural areas of Idaho and Nevada to determine evapotranspiration (ET) and net irrigation water requirements (IWR).Basal crop coefficients were expressed as functions of normalized cumulative growing degree days.ET during dormant seasons was included in the estimates.The procedure was applied to a U.S. West-wide study of climate change effects on ET and IWR.Abstract. The FAO-56 dual crop coefficient procedure was used to determine evapotranspiration (ET) and net irrigation water requirements for all agricultural areas of the states of Idaho and Nevada and in a western U.S. study on effects of climate change on future irrigation water requirements. The products of the applications are for use by state governments for water rights management, irrigation system planning and design, wastewater application system design and review, hydrologic water balances, and groundwater modeling. The products have been used by the U.S. federal government for assessing impacts of current and future climate change on irrigation water demands. The procedure was applied to data from more than 200 weather station locations across the state of Idaho, 200 weather station locations across the state of Nevada, and eight major river basins in the western U.S. for available periods of weather records. Estimates were made over daily, monthly, and annual time intervals. Methods from FAO-56 were employed for calculating reference ET and crop coefficients (Kc), with ET calculations performed for all times of the calendar year including winter. Expressing Kc as a function of thermal-time units allowed application across a wide range of local climates and elevations. The ET estimates covered a wide range of agricultural crops grown in the western U.S. plus a number of native plant systems, including wetlands, rangeland, and riparian trees. Evaporation was estimated for three types of open-water surfaces ranging from deep reservoirs to small farm ponds. Keywords: Consumptive use, Dual crop coefficient, Evapotranspiration, FAO-56, Irrigation water requirements.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-68
Author(s):  
Hanan Shalsabillah ◽  
Khairul Amri ◽  
Gusta Gunawan

The Irrigation Area of Air Nipis is located in Regency of South Bengkulu at Bengkulu Province with irrigation area 3.116 Ha. Planning and management of irrigation systems is one of the important steps to determine the irrigation water requirement as a whole. The purpose of this research is aim to analyze the water requirement to get value prediction of minimum and maximum irrigation water requirement in irrigation area of Air Nipis using the CROPWAT Version 8.0 method. Irrigation water requirements obtained from CROPWAT Version 8.0 are based on climate data, soil data and plants.The parameters that were reference plant evapotranspiration, effective rainfall, soil treatment, soil data, and plants. The results of the research showed that the maximum irrigation requirement for calculation using CROPWAT 8.0 software occurred in the first 10 days of December (14,49 m3/sec), while the minimum irrigation water requirements for CROPWAT 8.0 occurs in mid to end March (0,04 m3/sec).


Author(s):  
Pavel Spitz ◽  
Ivo Hemerka

The supposed climatic change in the Czech republic has be expressed with an increased occurence of unfavourable extreme phenomenons – floods and drought. This paper is dedicated to the agricultural drought. Irrigation is the most effective protection of crops against drought. The paper presents results of the calculations of the irrigation water requirements (for sprinkler irrigation) with the method of retrospective moisture balance (RVB) for representatives of main sorts of crops, i.e. cereals, technical crops, root-crops, fodder crops, vegetables (concretely perennial wheat, sugar-beet, new petatoes, alfaalfa, cucumbers) in the semiarid regions of the Czech republic (Southern Moravia, South-East Moravia, Middle Moravia, Žatecko and Lounsko, Litoměřicko, Middle Bohemia and Easter Bohemia) represented with 10 technical series (see tab. II) for recent years 1961 – 2000 and to the time horizons of years 2025, 2050 and 2075 with respect to a possible climatic change. The input meteorological data changes (average daily temperatures, daily precipitations and average daily air humidity) for calculations of irrigation water requirements to the introduced time horizons were realized by the help of the outputs of the scenarios for Bohemia and Moravia ascertained with the model of a climatic change HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3). The results of the calculations for an average and a drought year (in tab. III) were the base for the determination of development trends of an irrigation water requirement for choosen crops to the year time horizons 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075. These trends were generally analysed for the all monitored semiarid regions of Bohemia and Moravia by means of regression straight lines (an example is shown in fig. 2). The results gained by means of the regress analysis are in tab. IV. They reflect the fact that the irrigation water requirement has an advancing development trend at all of chosen crops for an average and a dry year with an increase in a future time horizon. Simultaneously it is evident that values of the irrigation water requirements are in an average and a drought year for semiarid areas in Moravia, excepting insignificant exemptions, mostly bigger than these values for semiarid areas in Bohemia. The obtained results show, if irrigation will be expanded in the Czech republic, it´s necessary, by taking into an account all the time more accurate informations concerning the climatic change, to dedicate the permanent attention to the irrigation water requirements in semiarid areas of the Czech Republic, not only for separate crops but also for the whole cropping structures. The knowledge of the irrigation water requirements is an important base above all for the assesment of irrigation areas and the size of irrigation water resources.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 2859-2866

The rapid increase of desertification’s degradation is one of the worst environmental and economic threats for dry areas. Climate changes, very year impacts thousands of areas across the globe. The high cost of electricity and diesel-based fuel affects photovoltaic water pumping requirements for irrigation in many parts of the world. Solar irradiance in every dry place is extremely high due the drought increase. Thus, using solar energy for water pumping is a promising alternative sources of energy. Undertaking irrigation for a particular place and crop requires not only skills in the irrigation planning but also in the power requirement of the entire system. A reliable and accurate estimation of ET rate and irrigation water requirement (IWR) are soundly important in irrigation field. This sought to accurately estimate the irrigation power requirement by using PVsyst software on nine different pumps technologies combinations with different type of converters at 100m, 150m, 180m, and 200m of Total dynamic Head (TDH). The study has been conducted in four sections, the first section dealt with the assessment of the collected data, the second section with the simulations, the third one with the irrigation water requirement and finally irrigation water requirement. The results found in study show that IPR of a crop is majorly depend on the TDH. Among the nine combinations, results show that the Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) technology is the best in terms of power requirement of selected the crop. Furthermore, the maximum and minimum values of the irrigation water requirement for millet crop was found to be 12.9 mm/day and 4.9mm/day respectively.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 412-421
Author(s):  
Mahendra Rizqi ◽  
Muhammad Yasar Yasar ◽  
Dewi Sri Jayanti

Abstrak. Salah satu usaha peningkatan produksi pangan khususnya padi adalah tersedianya air irigasi di areal sawah sesuai dengan kebutuhan. Kebutuhan air yang diperlukan  pada areal irigasi besarnya bervariasi sesuai keadaan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan evapotranspirasi, kehilangan air, kebutuhan air untuk tanaman dengan memperhatikan jumlah air yang diberikan oleh alam melalui hujan dan kontribusi air tanah. Pengaplikasian CROPWAT 8.0 ini sangat membantu dalam pengelolaan data sehingga menghasilkan data yang dapat digunakan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menghitung kebutuhan air irigasi pada Daerah Irigasi Krueng Jreu dengan menggunakan software CROPWAT 8.0. Metode penelitian adalah menentukan parameter, pengumpulan data dan pengolahan data.  Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data luas areal yang dialiri, data-data untuk menghitung evapotranspirasi meliputi temperatur, kelembaban relatif, kecepatan angin, lama penyinaran matahari, curah hujan, pola dan jadwal tanam yang dianjurkan di daerah penelitian. Hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan diperoleh  Nilai evapotranspirasi potensial (ET0)  rata-rata  di Daerah Irigasi Krueng Jreu adalah sebesar 3,75 mm/hari, curah hujan efektif (Re) rata-rata di Daerah Irigasi Krueng Jreu adalah sebesar 3,09 mm/hari, kebutuhan air untuk penyiapan lahan adalah sebesar 11,35 mm/hari untuk Bulan November dan sebesar 11,71 mm/hari untuk Bulan Mei, kebutuhan bersih air di sawah (NFR) untuk padi rendeng dan padi gadu yaitu sebesar  11,22 mm/hari dan 25,34 mm/hari, dan kebutuhan air pada pintu pengambilan (DR) untuk padi rendeng dan padi gadu yaitu sebesar 17,27 mm/hari dan 38,98 mm/hari. Kebutuhan air irigasi di Darah Irigasi Krueng Jreu dengan total luas area sebesar 3.287 ha dengan kebutuhan air irigasi pola tanam padi-padi yang dimulai awal pengolahan lahan pada awal Bulan November maka didapatkan kebutuhan air irigasi maksimal yaitu terjadi pada Bulan Juli dengan perhitungan CROPWAT yaitu sebesar 14,9 m3/detik dan untuk perhitungan manual yaitu sebesar 6,26 m3/detik. Kebutuhan air irigasi minimum yaitu terjadi pada Bulan Desember dengan perhitungan CROPWAT yaitu sebesar 0,00 m3/detik dan perhitungan manual yaitu sebesar 0,45 m3/detik.Analysis of Irrigation Water Requirement Using CROPWAT 8.0 in Krueng Jreu Irrigation Area  of Aceh Besar RegencyAbstract. One of the efforts to increase food production, especially rice, is the availability of irrigation water in paddy fields according to their needs. The required water needs in the area of irrigation varies according the State needs for evapotranspiration, water loss, water needs for plants with attention to the amount of water given by nature through the rain and the contribution of groundwater. The application of  Cropwat 8.0 is very helpful in managing data so as to produce data that can be used. The purpose of this study was to calculate irrigation water requirements in the Krueng Jreu Irrigation Area using Cropwat 8.0 software. The research method is determining parameters, data collection and data processing. The data used in this study is the data area that is flowed, the data for calculating evapotranspiration include: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, duration of solar radiation, rainfall, patterns, and planting schedules recommended in the study area. Based on the results of the research that has been carried out, it can be concluded as follows: the average evapotranspiration value (ET0) in the Krueng Jreu Irrigation Area is 3,75 mm/day, the effective rainfall (Re) in the Krueng Jreu Irrigation Area is amounting to 3,09 mm/day, water requirements for land preparation of 11,35 mm/day in November and 11,71 mm/day in Mei, clean water requirements in rice fields (NFR) for rendeng rice and gadu rice which amounted to 11,22 mm/day and 25,34 mm/day, and water requirements on the retrieval gate (DR) for rendeng rice and gadu rice were equal to 17,27 mm/day and 38,98 mm/day. Irrigation water needs in Krueng Jreu Irrigation Blood with a total area of 3.287 ha with irrigation water requirements for rice-paddy cropping patterns that were started at the beginning of land processing at the beginning of November the maximum irrigation water needs were obtained in July with  Cropwat calculations that is equal to 14,9 m3/second and for manual calculations amounting to 6,26 m3/sec. For minimum irrigation water needs, that occurs in December with a Cropwat calculation is 0,00 m3/second and manual calculation of 0,45 m3/sec.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1060-1068
Author(s):  
Santhosh UN ◽  
Desai BK ◽  
Satyanarayana Rao ◽  
Masthana Reddy BG ◽  
Vinay Krishnamurthy ◽  
...  

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