scholarly journals Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3109-3128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Hannah Louise Cloke ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Abstract. Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

scholarly journals Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Erin Coughlan ◽  
Hannah Louise Cloke ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Game Situation ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Set Up

Abstract. In order to communicate forecast uncertainty, there has been a gradual adoption of probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts, for diverse activities of the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, set up as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this experiment is to contribute to understanding the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community.

The views and perceptions of managers on the role of marketing research in decision making

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Tarka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Marketing Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Irrational Thinking ◽  
Analytical Thinking ◽  
Making Choices ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Views And Perceptions

In this article, the author conducts an empirical diagnosis of managers’ views and perceptions in the context of use of information obtained from marketing research in decision-making processes. It is argued that decision makers who take charge of management, despite their strong declarations and beliefs about the potential and usefulness of information in decisions, in reality prefer solutions based on intuition and irrational thinking. Therefore, the objective of the conducted study is to explore mechanisms of such paradoxes. However, through empirical research, the author endeavored to find the answers associated with the specific factors that are likely to favor such an unreasonable thinking and activities undertaken by managers in decision-making processes. Based on the sample ( N = 213), which contained mainly information users, it was confirmed that managers, faced with a difficulty of information processing (e.g., due to information overloading problems and requirements of analytical thinking), or narrow cognitive capacities, limited memory, and strong reliance on personal experience, look for much simpler solutions in decision making. They preferably move toward the irrational sphere of making choices. Thus, the information, obtained from research, that is available to managers is rather neglected instead of being closely inspected (scrutinized). Moreover, the greater the surprise in information derived from marketing research (i.e., the wider is the discrepancy between the value of information provided by analysts and managers’ expectations), the greater their inclination to reject any information and much greater exposure toward irrational thinking in decision making. As a matter of fact, the problems associated with information adaptation in decisions, as well as the problems of analytical thinking, put the question mark over the entire usefulness of information and further deliberate conducting of the marketing research.

scholarly journals To what extent does evidence support decision making during infectious disease outbreaks? A scoping literature review

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 453-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreea Salajan ◽  
Svetla Tsolova ◽  
Massimo Ciotti ◽  
Jonathan E. Suk
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Scientific Uncertainty ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Background:Infectious disease outbreaks require decision makers to make rapid decisions under time pressure and situations of scientific uncertainty, and yet the role of evidence usage in these contexts is poorly understood. Aims and objectives:To define and contextualise the role of scientific evidence in the governance of infectious disease outbreaks and to identify recommendations for overcoming common barriers to evidence-informed decision making. Methods:A scoping review and an expert workshop to provide additional input into recommendations on enhancing evidence uptake during infectious disease outbreaks taking place in European settings. Findings:Forty-nine records reporting on multiple decision-making processes during infectious disease outbreaks of the past ten years were included in the study. Decision makers prioritise expert advice, epidemiological data and mathematical modelling data for risk characterisation and management, but tend to be challenged by scientific uncertainties, which allow for conflicting interpretations of evidence and for public criticism and contestation of decision-making processes. There are concrete opportunities for optimising evidence usage to improve public health policy and practice through investment in decision-making competencies, relationship building, and promoting transparent decision-making processes. Discussion and conclusions:It is not necessarily a disregard of evidence that puts a strain on decision making in health crises, but rather competing interests and the lack of clear, unambiguous and rapidly available evidence for risk characterisation and effectiveness of response measures.The relationship between science and public health decision making is relatively understudied but is deserving of greater attention, so as to ensure that the pursuit of evidence for decision making does not challenge timely and effective crisis management.

scholarly journals Environmental Justice in India: The National Green Tribunal and Expert Members

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitanjali Nain Gill
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Justice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Environmental Disputes ◽  
Scientific Experts ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Technical Expert ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractThis article argues that the involvement of technical experts in decision making promotes better environmental results while simultaneously recognizing the uncertainty in science. India’s record as a progressive jurisdiction in environmental matters through its proactive judiciary is internationally recognized. The neoteric National Green Tribunal of India (NGT) – officially described as a ‘specialised body equipped with necessary expertise to handle environmental disputes involving multi-disciplinary issues’ – is a forum which offers greater plurality for environmental justice. The NGT, in exercising wide powers, is staffed by judicial and technical expert members who decide cases in an open forum. The experts are ‘central’, rather than ‘marginal’, to the NGT’s decision-making process.This article draws on theoretical insights developed by Lorna Schrefler and Peter Haas to analyze the role of scientific experts as decision makers within the NGT. Unprecedented interview access provides data that grants an insight into the internal decision-making processes of the five benches of the NGT. Reported cases, supported by additional comments of bench members, illustrate the wider policy impact of scientific knowledge and its contribution to the NGT’s decision-making process.

The Role of Analogical Reasoning in Novel Foreign-Policy Situations

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Patrick Houghton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Analogical Reasoning ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Hostage Crisis ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Policy Decision Making

A number of scholars have argued that historical analogizing plays an important role in foreign-policy decision making; the extent of that importance, however, remains largely a mystery to us. This article proposes that analogical reasoning is probably even more commonplace than previously thought, since it may play a crucial role even in ‘novel foreign policy situations’ (scenarios which appear largely unprecedented to the decision makers confronting them).One notable example of a novel foreign-policy situation is provided by the Iranian hostage crisis. Examining the Carter administration's decision-making processes during that crisis, the article concludes that even though many saw the hostage crisis as a unique occurrence, the participants drew upon a wide range of historical analogies in order to make sense of what was occuring and to propose suggested ‘solutions’ to the crisis.

strategi dalam pengambilan keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suci Handayani Handayani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Administrative Process ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Information Time ◽  
Complex Matter ◽  
General Individuals

Decision making is one element of economic value, especially in the era of globalization, and if it is not acceptable in the decision making process, we will be left behind. According to Robins, (2003: 173), Salusu, (2000: 47), and Razik and Swanson, (1995: 476) say that decision making can be interpreted as a process of choosing a number of alternatives, how to act in accordance with concepts, or rules in solving problems to achieve individual or group goals that have been formulated using a number of specific techniques, approaches and methods and achieve optimal levels of acceptance.Decision making in organizations whether a decision is made for a person or group, the nature of the decision is often determined by rules, policies, prescribed, instructions that have been derived or practices that apply. To understand decision making within the organization it is useful to view decision making as part of the overall administrative process. In general, individuals tend to use simple strategies, even if in any complex matter, to get the desired solution, because the solution is limited by imperfect information, time and costs, limited thinking and psychological stress experienced by decision makers.

scholarly journals Assessing social preferences in reimbursement negotiations for new Pharmaceuticals in Oncology: an experimental design to analyse willingness to pay and willingness to accept

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik J. Wettstein ◽  
Stefan Boes
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Real World ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Social Preferences ◽  
Standard Of Care ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Amazon Mechanical Turk ◽  
Patient Organisation ◽  
Patient Benefit

Abstract Background Price negotiations for specialty pharmaceuticals take place in a complex market setting. The determination of the added value of new treatments and the related societal willingness to pay are of increasing importance in policy reform debates. From a behavioural economics perspective, potential cognitive biases and other-regarding concerns affecting outcomes of reimbursement negotiations are of interest. An experimental setting to investigate social preferences in reimbursement negotiations for novel, oncology pharmaceuticals was used. Of interest were differences in social preferences caused by incremental changes of the patient outcome. Methods An online experiment was conducted in two separate runs (n = 202, n = 404) on the Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) platform. Populations were split into two (run one) and four (run two) equally sized treatment groups for hypothetical reimbursement decisions. Participants were randomly assigned to the role of a public price regulator for pharmaceuticals (buyer) or a representative of a pharmaceutical company (seller). In run two, role groups were further split into two different price magnitude framings (“real world” vs unconverted “real payoff” prices). Decisions had real monetary effects on other participants (in the role of premium payers or investors) and via charitable donations to a patient organisation (patient benefit). Results 56 (run one) and 59 (run two) percent of participants stated strictly monotone preferences for incremental patient benefit. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) against standard of care (SoC) was higher than the initial ICER of the SoC against no care. Regulators stated lower reservation prices in the “real world” prices group compared to their colleagues in the unconverted payoff group. No price group showed any reluctance to trade. Overall, regulators rated the relevance of the patient for their decision higher and the relevance of their own role lower compared to sellers. Conclusions The price magnitude of current oncology treatments affects stated preferences for incremental survival, and assigned responsibilities lead to different opinions on the relevance of affected stakeholders. The design is useful to further assess effects of reimbursement negotiations on societal outcomes like affordability (cost) or availability (access) of new pharmaceuticals and test behavioural policy interventions.

scholarly journals Heart and Mind: Essential Components in Sound Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 364-364
Author(s):  
Michaela Clark ◽  
Julie Hicks Patrick ◽  
Michaela Reardon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Cluster Solution ◽  
Cognitive Resources ◽  
Cluster Membership ◽  
Essential Components ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Affective Components ◽  
Heart And Mind

Abstract Consumer tasks permit an ecologically-valid context in which to examine the contributions of affective and cognitive resources to decision-making processes and outcomes. Although previous work shows that cognitive factors are important when individuals make decisions (Patrick et al., 2013; Queen et al.), the role of affective components is less clear. We examine these issues in two studies. Study 1 used data from 1000+ adults to inform a cluster analysis examining affective aspects (importance, meaningfulness) of making different types of decisions. A 4-cluster solution resulted. In Study 2, we used affective cluster membership and cognitive performance as predictors of experimental decision-making outcomes among a subset of participants (N = 60). Results of the regression (F(2, 40) = 6.51, p < .01, R2 = .25.) revealed that both the affective clusters (b = .37, p = .01) and cognitive ability (b = -.30, p = .04) uniquely contributed to the variance explained in decision quality. Age did not uniquely contribute. Results are discussed in the context of developing measures that enable us to move the field forward.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

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