scholarly journals Rainfall disaggregation for hydrological modeling: Is there a need for spatial consistence?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Müller ◽  
Markus Wallner ◽  
Kristian Förster
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Lower Saxony ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Peak Flows

Abstract. In this investigation, the influence of disaggregated rainfall data sets with different degrees of spatial consistence on rainfall runoff modeling results is analyzed for three meso-scale catchments in Lower Saxony, Germany. For the disaggregation of daily rainfall time series into hourly values a multiplicative random cascade model is applied. The disaggregation is applied on a per station basis without consideration of surrounding stations, hence subsequent steps are then required to implement spatial consistence. Spatial consistence is here represented by three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics, complementing each other. A resampling algorithm and a parallelization approach are evaluated against the disaggregated time series without any subsequent steps. With respect to rainfall, clear differences between these three approaches can be identified regarding bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics, areal rainfall intensities and extreme values. The resampled time series lead to the best agreement with the observed ones. Using these different rainfall data sets as input to hydrological modeling, we hypothesize that derived runoff statistics are subject to similar differences as well. However, an impact on the runoff statistics summer and winter peak flows, monthly average discharge and flow duration curve of the simulated runoff time series cannot be detected. Several modifications of the investigation using rainfall runoff models with and without parameter calibration or using different rain gauge densities lead to similar results in runoff statistics. Only if the spatially highly resolved rainfall-runoff WaSiM-model is applied instead of the semi-distributed HBV-IWW-model, slight differences regarding the seasonal peak flows can be identified. Hence, the hypothesis formulated before is rejected in this case study. These findings suggest that (i) simple model structures might compensate for deficiencies in spatial representativeness through parameterization and (ii) highly resolved hydrological models benefit from improved spatial modeling of rainfall.

scholarly journals Rainfall disaggregation for hydrological modeling: is there a need for spatial consistence?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 5259-5280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Müller-Thomy ◽  
Markus Wallner ◽  
Kristian Förster
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Lower Saxony ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Areal Rainfall

Abstract. In this study, the influence of disaggregated rainfall products with different degrees of spatial consistence on rainfall–runoff modeling results is analyzed for three mesoscale catchments in Lower Saxony, Germany. For the disaggregation of daily rainfall time series into hourly values, a multiplicative random cascade model is applied. The disaggregation is applied on a station by station basis without consideration of surrounding stations; hence subsequent steps are then required to implement spatial consistence. Spatial consistence is represented here by three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics that complement each other. A resampling algorithm and a parallelization approach are evaluated against the disaggregated time series without any subsequent steps. With respect to rainfall, clear differences between these three approaches can be identified regarding bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics, areal rainfall intensities and extreme values. The resampled time series lead to the best agreement with the observed ones. Using these different rainfall products as input to hydrological modeling, we hypothesize that derived runoff statistics – with emphasis on seasonal extreme values – are subject to similar differences as well. However, an impact on the extreme values' statistics of the hydrological simulations forced by different rainfall approaches cannot be detected. Several modifications of the study design using rainfall–runoff models with and without parameter calibration or using different rain gauge densities lead to similar results in runoff statistics. Only if the spatially highly resolved rainfall–runoff WaSiM model is applied instead of the semi-distributed HBV-IWW model can slight differences regarding the seasonal peak flows be identified. Hence, the hypothesis formulated before is rejected in this case study. These findings suggest that (i) simple model structures might compensate for deficiencies in spatial representativeness through parameterization and (ii) highly resolved hydrological models benefit from improved spatial modeling of rainfall.

scholarly journals Circulation pattern based parameterization of a multiplicative random cascade for disaggregation of observed and projected daily rainfall time series

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2487-2500 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Lisniak ◽  
J. Franke ◽  
C. Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract. The use of multiplicative random cascades (MRCs) for temporal rainfall disaggregation has been extensively studied in the past. MRCs are appealing for rainfall disaggregation due to their formal simplicity and the possibility to extract the model parameters directly from observed high resolution rainfall data. These parameters, however, represent the rainfall characteristics of the observation period. Since rainfall characteristics of different time slices are changing due to climate variability, we propose a parameterization approach for MRCs to adjust the parameters according to past (observed) or future (projected) time series. This is done on the basis of circulation patterns (CPs) by extracting a distinct MRC parameterization from high resolution rainfall data, as observed on days governed by each individual CP. The parameterization approach is tested by comparing the statistical properties of disaggregated rainfall time series of two time slices, 1969–1979 and 1989–1999, to the results obtained by two other disaggregation methods (a conceptually similar MRC without CP-based parameterization and a recombination approach) and to the statistical properties of observed hourly rainfall data. In this context, all three approaches use rainfall data of the time slice 1989–1999 for parameterization. We found that the inclusion of CPs into the parameterization of a MRC yields hourly time series that better reproduce the properties of observed rainfall in time slice 1989–1999, as compared to the simple MRC. Despite similar results of both MRCs in the validation period of 1969–1979, we can conclude that the CP-based parameterization approach is applicable for temporal rainfall disaggregation in time slices distinct from the parameterization period. This approach accounts for changes in rainfall characteristics due to changes in the frequency of occurrence of the CPs and allows generating hourly rainfall from daily data, as often provided by a statistical downscaling of global climate change.

scholarly journals Circulation pattern based parameterization of a multiplicative random cascade for disaggregation of daily rainfall under nonstationary climatic conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 10115-10149 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Lisniak ◽  
J. Franke ◽  
C. Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract. The use of multiplicative random cascades (MRCs) for temporal rainfall disaggregation has been extensively studied in the past. MRCs are appealing for rainfall disaggregation due to their formal simplicity and the possibility to extract the model parameters directly from observed high resolution rainfall data. These parameters, however, represent the rainfall characteristics of the observation period. Since rainfall characteristics of different time slices are changing due to climate variability, we propose a parameterization approach for MRCs to adjust the parameters according to past (observed) or future (projected) time series. This is done on the basis of circulation patterns (CPs) by extracting a distinct MRC parameterization from high resolution rainfall data, as observed on days governed by each individual CP. The parameterization approach is tested by comparing the statistical properties of disaggregated rainfall time series of two time slices, 1969–1979 and 1989–1999, to the results obtained by two other disaggregation methods (a conceptually similar MRC without CP-based parameterization and a recombination approach) and to the statistical properties of observed hourly rainfall data. In this context, all three approaches use rainfall data of the time slice 1989–1999 for parameterization. We found that the inclusion of CPs into the parameterization of a MRC yields hourly time series that better reproduce the properties of observed rainfall in time slice 1989–1999, as compared to the simple MRC. Despite similar properties of both MRCs for the time slice 1969–1979, we can conclude that the CP-based parameterization approach is applicable for temporal rainfall disaggregation in time slices distinct from the parameterization period. This approach accounts for changes in rainfall characteristics due to changes in the frequency of occurrence of the CPs and allows generating hourly rainfall from daily data, as often provided by a statistical downscaling of global climate change.

scholarly journals Cascade Rainfall Disaggregation Application in U.S. Central Plains

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jurgen D. Garbrecht ◽  
Rabi Gyawali ◽  
Robert W. Malone ◽  
John C. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Random Component ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Replicated Observations

Long-term observations of daily rainfall are common and routinely available for a variety of hydrologic applications. In contrast, observations of 10 or more years of continuous hourly rainfall are rare. Yet, sub-daily rainfall data are required in rainfall-runoff models. Rainfall disaggregation can generate sub-daily time-series from available long term daily observations. Herein, the performance of Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model at disaggregating daily-to-hourly rainfall was investigated. The MRC model was parameterized and validated with 15 years of continuous observed daily and hourly rainfall data at three weather stations in Oklahoma. Model performance, or degree to which the disaggregated rainfall time series replicated observations, was assessed using 46 variables of hourly rainfall characteristics, such as longest wet spell duration, average number of rainfall hours per year, and largest hourly rainfall. Findings include: a) average-type hourly rainfall characteristics were better replicated than single value characteristics such as longest, maximum, or peak hourly rainfall; b) the large number of sub-trace hourly rainfall values (<0.254 mm h-1) generated by the MRC model were not supported by observations; c) the random component of the MRC model led to a variation under 15% of the average value for most rainfall characteristics with the exceptions of the “longest wet spell duration” and “maximum hourly rainfall”; and d) the MRC model produced fewer persistent rainfall events compared to those in the observed rainfall record. The large number of generated trace rainfall values and difficulties to replicate reliably extreme rainfall characteristics, reduces the number of potential hydrologic applications that could take advantage of the MRC disaggregated hourly rainfall. Nevertheless, in most cases, the disaggregated rainfall generated by the MRC model replicated observed average-type rainfall characteristics well.

scholarly journals Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 353-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Haberlandt ◽  
I. Radtke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract. Derived flood frequency analysis allows the estimation of design floods with hydrological modeling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices regarding precipitation input, discharge output and consequently the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets and to propose the most suitable approach. Event based and continuous, observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output, short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System). The results show that (I) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (II) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, and (III) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the application for derived flood frequency analysis.

scholarly journals Application of NEXRAD Radar-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimations for Hydrologic Simulation Using ArcPy and HEC Software

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Younghyun Cho
Keyword(s):  
Data Processing ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Performance Test ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Spatially Distributed

Recent availability of various spatial data, especially for gridded rainfall amounts, provide a great opportunity in hydrological modeling of spatially distributed rainfall–runoff analysis. In order to support this advantage using gridded precipitation in hydrological application, (1) two main Python script programs for the following three steps of radar-based rainfall data processing were developed for Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Stage III products: conversion of the XMRG format (binary to ASCII) files, geo-referencing (re-projection) with ASCII file in ArcGIS, and DSS file generation using HEC-GridUtil (existing program); (2) eight Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) models of ModClark and SCS Unit Hydrograph transform methods for rainfall–runoff flow simulations using both spatially distributed radar-based and basin-averaged lumped gauged rainfall were respectively developed; and (3) three storm event simulations including a model performance test, calibration, and validation were conducted. For the results, both models have relatively high statistical evaluation values (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency—ENS 0.55–0.98 for ModClark and 0.65–0.93 for SCS UH), but it was found that the spatially distributed rainfall data-based model (ModClark) gives a better fit regarding observed streamflow for the two study basins (Cedar Creek and South Fork) in the USA, showing less requirements to calibrate the model with initial parameter values. Thus, the programs and methods developed in this research possibly reduce the difficulties of radar-based rainfall data processing (not only NEXRAD but also other gridded precipitation datasets—i.e., satellite-based data, etc.) and provide efficiency for HEC-HMS hydrologic process application in spatially distributed rainfall–runoff simulations.

scholarly journals Modelling of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale catchment in North-West India II: stochastic rainfall simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 807-815 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Zehe ◽  
A. K. Singh ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Time Variability ◽  
Western India ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
North West ◽  
Monthly Scale ◽  
Circulation Patterns

Abstract. Within this study we present a robust method for generating precipitation time series for the Anas catchment in North Western India. The method employs a multivariate stochastic simulation model that is driven by a time series of objectively classified circulation patterns (CPs). In a companion study (Zehe et al., 2006) it was already shown that CPs classified from the 500 or 700 Hpa levels are suitable to explain space-time variability of precipitation in that area. The model is calibrated using observed rainfall time series for the period 1985–1992 for two different CP time series, one from the 500 Hpa level and the over from the 700 Hpa level, and 200 realizations of daily rainfall are simulated for the period 85–94. Simulations using the CPs from the 500 Hpa level as input yield a good match of the observed averages and standard deviations of daily rainfall. They show furthermore good performance at the monthly scale. When used with the 700 Hpa level CPs as inputs the model clearly underestimates the standard deviation and performs much worse at the monthly scale, especially in the validation period 93–94. The presented results give evidence that CPs from the 500 Hpa, level in combination with a multivariate stochastic model, make up a suitable tool for reducing the sparsity of precipitation data in developing regions with sparse hydro-meteorological data sets.

SLICES OF MULTIFRACTAL MEASURES AND APPLICATIONS TO RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS

Fractals ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 337-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
BIRGER LAMMERING
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Mathematical Ideas ◽  
Radar Images ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Self Similar ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Plane Measure

We discuss the relationship between the multifractal functions of a plane measure and those of slices or sections of the measure with a line. Motivated by recent mathematical ideas about the relationship between measures and their slices, we formulate the "slice hypothesis," and consider the theoretical limitations of this hypothesis. We compute the multifractal functions of several standard self-similar and self-affine measures and their slices to examine the validity of the slice hypothesis. We are particularly interested in using the slice hypothesis to estimate multifractal properties of spatial rainfall fields by analyzing rainfall data representing slices of rainfall fields. We consider how rainfall time series at a fixed site and slices of composite radar images can be used for this purpose, testing this on field data from a radar composite in the USA and on appropriate time series.

Comparing runoff statistics simulated with a hydrological model utilizing stochastically generated lumped catchment rainfall and multiple point rainfall

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luisa-Bianca Thiele ◽  
Ross Pidoto ◽  
Uwe Haberlandt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Multiple Point ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model

&lt;p&gt;For derived flood frequency analyses, stochastic rainfall models can be linked with rainfall-runoff models to improve the accuracy of design flood estimations when the length of observed rainfall and runoff data is not sufficient. In the past, when using stochastic rainfall time series for hydrological modelling purposes, catchment rainfall for use in hydrological modelling was calculated from the multiple point rainfall time series. As an alternative to this approach, it will be tested whether catchment rainfall can be modelled directly, negating the drawbacks (and need) encountered in generating spatially consistent time series. An Alternating Renewal rainfall model (ARM) will be used to generate multiple point and lumped catchment rainfall time series in hourly resolution. The generated rainfall time series will be used to drive the rainfall-runoff model HBV-IWW with an hourly time step for mesoscale catchments in Germany. Validation will be performed by comparing modelled runoff regarding runoff and flood statistics using stochastically generated lumped catchment rainfall versus multiple point rainfall. It would be advantageous if the results based on catchment rainfall are comparable to those using multiple point rainfall, so catchment rainfall could be generated directly with the stochastic rainfall models. Extremes at the catchment scale may also be better represented if catchment rainfall is generated directly.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Identification of Hydrologic Models, Optimized Parameters, and Rainfall Inputs Consistent with In Situ Streamflow and Rainfall and Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1305-1320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley J. Wright ◽  
Jeffrey P. Walker ◽  
Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Model Input ◽  
Rainfall Estimates

Abstract An increased understanding of the uncertainties present in rainfall time series can lead to improved confidence in both short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. This study presents an analysis that considers errors arising from model input data, model structure, model parameters, and model states with the objective of finding a self-consistent set that includes hydrological models, model parameters, streamflow, remotely sensed (RS) soil moisture (SM), and rainfall. This methodology can be used by hydrologists to aid model and satellite selection. Taking advantage of model input data reduction and model inversion techniques, this study uses a previously developed methodology to estimate areal rainfall time series for the study catchment of Warwick, Australia, for multiple rainfall–runoff models. RS SM observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) satellites were assimilated into three different rainfall–runoff models using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Innovations resulting from the observed and predicted SM were analyzed for Gaussianity. The findings demonstrate that consistency between hydrological models, model parameters, streamflow, RS SM, and rainfall can be found. Joint estimation of rainfall time series and model parameters consistently improved streamflow simulations. For all models rainfall estimates are less than the observed rainfall, and rainfall estimates obtained using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model are the most consistent with gauge-based observations. The SAC-SMA model simulates streamflow that is most consistent with observations. EnKF innovations obtained when SMOS RS SM observations were assimilated into the SAC-SMA model demonstrate consistency between SM products.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document