Stochastic Hydrogeology's Biggest Hurdles Analyzed and Its Big Blind Spot

Abstract. This paper considers questions related to the adoption of stochastic methods in hydrogeology. It looks at factors affecting the adoption of stochastic methods including environmental regulations, financial incentives, higher education, and the collective feedback loop involving these factors. We begin by evaluating two previous paper series appearing in the stochastic hydrogeology literature, one in 2004 and one in 2016, and identifying the current thinking on the topic, including the perceived data needs of stochastic methods, the attitude in regulations and the court system regarding stochastic methods, education of the workforce, and the availability of software tools needed for implementing stochastic methods in practice. Comparing the state of adoption in hydrogeology to petroleum reservoir engineering allowed us to identify quantitative metrics on which to base our analysis. For impediments to the adoption of stochastic hydrology, we identified external factors as well as self-inflicted wounds. What emerges is a picture much broader than current views. Financial incentives and regulations play a major role in stalling adoption. Stochastic hydrology's blind spot is in confusing between uncertainty with risk and ignoring uncertainty. We show that stochastic hydrogeology comfortably focused on risk while ignoring uncertainty, to its own detriment and to the detriment of its potential clients. The imbalance between the treatment on risk on one hand and uncertainty on the other is shown to be common to multiple disciplines in hydrology that interface with risk and uncertainty.

Download Full-text

Stimulants économiques et utilisation des services médicaux

L Actualité économique ◽

10.7202/600917ar ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 56 (2) ◽

pp. 264-296 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

André-Pierre Contandriopoulos

Keyword(s):

Economic Model ◽

Financial Incentives ◽

Physician Behavior ◽

Economic Incentives ◽

Present Form ◽

Medical Services ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Utilisation Des Services ◽

Fee Schedule

Abstract Having demonstrated that the traditional economic model of the market cannot be used in its present form to understand what is happening in the field of medical services, a presentation will be made of the factors affecting the behavior of physicians as purveyors of services, thus showing the importance of analyzing the influence of economic incentives on physician behavior. The analysis consists of measuring the change in the practice profiles of physicians from 1971 to 1973, and evaluating the influence of the fee schedule on this change. This research allows us to show that the personal characterictics of physicians, the characteristics associated with the organization of their practice and the area in which they practise are only very slightly related to the changes in the mix of the medical services produced by physicians; that the change in the profile of practice cannot be associated with changes in the populations' needs, and that the financial incentives incorporated in the fee schedule have been found to be mainly responsible for the shifts observed in the profiles of practice. We conclude by showing how these results are compatible with the hypothesis that physicians can influence demand for medical services.

Download Full-text

Criteria and barriers for the application of green building features in Hong Kong

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment ◽

10.1108/sasbe-02-2018-0004 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (3/4) ◽

pp. 251-276 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Jayantha Wadu Mesthrige ◽

Ho Yuk Kwong

Keyword(s):

Hong Kong ◽

Financial Incentives ◽

Group Discussion ◽

Green Building ◽

Building Sector ◽

Content Type ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Barriers To Implementation ◽

Multi Method Approach ◽

Method Approach

Purpose An understanding about the criteria determining the successful application of green features, and the barriers to implementation is essential in order to promote and enhance green building development. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, the criteria determining the success of GBFs; and second, the barriers to implementing GBFs in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach A multi-method approach comprising a comprehensive questionnaire survey and a semi-structured group discussion with construction professionals, along with three case studies was adopted to address these two issues. Findings Findings suggest that although environmental performance is the most significant criterion, the living quality of occupants and the costs of green features play a crucial role in determining the success of their application. However, the environmental aspects of buildings are not sufficient for rating or determining the greenness level of a building. As for barriers, the green cost implications; the structural unsuitability of the current stock of old buildings; and the lack of financial incentives were found to be crucial barriers preventing the application of green features in the Hong Kong building sector. Originality/value GBFs have received extensive attentions by the academia and industry. This paper used a mix method approach by exploring success criteria and barriers to implementing green features in the building sector in Hong Kong. As green building development is still a contemporary subject of discussion, this study would be beneficial to decision makers as it identifies the criteria determining the success of green building adoption and barriers to implementation of such features. Hence, relevant stakeholders will have better understanding of the factors affecting the adoption of GBFs.

Download Full-text

Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering

Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering - Advances in Mechatronics and Mechanical Engineering ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-5045-7.ch006 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 139-160

Author(s):

Tetiana Shmelova

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Decision Making ◽

Emergency Situation ◽

Civil Aviation ◽

Stochastic Methods ◽

Navigation Systems ◽

International Civil Aviation Organization ◽

Risk And Uncertainty ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Professional Activities

In this chapter, the author presents stochastic methods in aviation. The stochastic methods are presented as methods of decision making (DM) of operators of air navigation systems (ANS) in risk and uncertainly. The ANS is presented as a socio-technical system (STS). Analysis influences the factors of professional and non-professional activities on DM of STS's operators. The author made an analysis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operator of the aviation system under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The author demonstrates some interesting advantages offered by the new methodology of DM in STS and forecasting the behavior of the operator in an emergency situation (ES) for using models of DM in risk and uncertainty.

Download Full-text

Swedish House Owners’ Intentions Towards Renovations: Is there a Market for One-Stop-Shop?

Buildings ◽

10.3390/buildings9070164 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 164 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Georgios Pardalis ◽

Krushna Mahapatra ◽

Giangiacomo Bravo ◽

Brijesh Mainali

Keyword(s):

Financial Incentives ◽

Energy Savings ◽

Online Questionnaire ◽

Level Of Involvement ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Younger Age ◽

One Stop ◽

Near Future ◽

Selection Of

In this paper, we examine factors affecting owners’ intention for renovation of their detached houses. Furthermore, we analyze their interest in choosing a one-stop-shop (OSS) service for the renovation, even though such a concept is not yet established in Sweden, but emerging in other parts of Europe. Our study is based on responses to an online questionnaire survey of 971 house owners residing in Kronoberg Region in Sweden. About 76% of the respondents intend to renovate in the near future, with approximately 71% of them preferring to renovate individual components of their dwelling and 5% to renovate their whole house in steps. House owners of younger age, higher income, higher education, and those with an interest for environmental issues, were the ones most interested in physical renovations, which improves energy efficiency of the building. For those house owners, one-stop-shop can facilitate the decision-making process, and help them to choose those measures that will improve their quality of life. Approximately 20% of the respondents had a positive view towards an one-stop-shop, which is an indicator that market for such a service exists. Parameters such as quality of work, cost and energy savings and specification of measures to be adopted are the key for the promotion of one-stop-shop. Additionally, house owners want to have a certain level of involvement in the selection of actors performing the renovation. Moreover, financial incentives, e.g., loans, do not play a significant role for the selection of one-stop-shop, but act as complementary motive for house owners.

Download Full-text

Ex-Ante Study of Biofuel Policies–Analyzing Policy-Induced Flexibility

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su14010147 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 147

Author(s):

Inka Ruponen ◽

Mariia Kozlova ◽

Mikael Collan

Keyword(s):

Financial Incentives ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Fuel Production ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Low Carbon Economy ◽

Profitability Analysis ◽

Analysis Methods ◽

Tax Relief ◽

Biofuel Policies ◽

Policy Types

A variety of policy types are available to foster the transition to a low-carbon economy. In every sector, including transportation, heat and power production, policymakers face the choice of what type of policy to adopt. For this choice, it is crucial to understand how different mechanisms incentivize investments in terms of improving their profitability, shaping the flexibility available for investors, and how they are affected by the surrounding uncertainty. This paper focuses on transportation-biofuel policies, particularly on the financial incentives put on the bio-component of fuel and the combination of using penalties and tax-relief. Delivery of vital policymaking insights by using two modern simple-to-use profitability analysis methods, the pay-off method and the simulation decomposition method, is illustrated. Both methods enable the incorporation of uncertainty into the profitability analyses, and thus generate insight about the flexibilities involved, and the factors affecting the results. The results show that the combination of penalties and tax-relief is a way to steer fuel-production towards sustainability. The two methods used for analysis complement each other and provide important insights for analysis and decision-making beyond what the commonly used profitability analysis methods typically provide.

Download Full-text

Why clinicians overtest: development of a thematic framework

10.21203/rs.3.rs-43690/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Justin H Lam ◽

Kristen Pickles ◽

Fiona Stanaway ◽

Katy JL Bell

Keyword(s):

Financial Incentives ◽

Cognitive Biases ◽

New Technology ◽

Group Discussion ◽

Unintended Consequences ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Medline Search ◽

Targeted Interventions ◽

Attitudes And Practices ◽

Thematic Framework

Abstract Background: Medical tests provide important information to guide clinical management. Overtesting, however, may cause harm to patients and the healthcare system, including through misdiagnosis, false positives, false negatives and overdiagnosis. Clinicians are ultimately responsible for test requests, and are therefore ideally positioned to prevent overtesting and its unintended consequences. Through this narrative literature review and workshop discussion with experts at the Preventing Overdiagnosis Conference (Sydney, 2019), we aimed to identify and establish a thematic framework of factors that influence clinicians to request non-recommended and unnecessary tests. Methods: Articles exploring factors affecting clinician test ordering behaviour were identified through a systematic search of MedLine in April 2019, forward and backward citation searches and content experts. Two authors screened abstract titles and abstracts, and two authors screened full text for inclusion. Identified factors were categorised into a preliminary framework which was subsequently presented at the PODC for iterative development.Results: The MedLine search yielded 542 articles; 55 were included. Another 10 articles identified by forward-backward citation and content experts were included, resulting in 65 articles in total. Following small group discussion with workshop participants, a revised thematic framework of factors was developed: · “Intrapersonal” – fear of malpractice and litigation; clinician knowledge and understanding; intolerance of uncertainty and risk aversion; cognitive biases and experiences; sense of medical obligation· “Interpersonal” – pressure from patients and doctor-patient relationship; pressure from colleagues and medical culture; · “Environment/context” – guidelines, protocols and policies; financial incentives and ownership of tests; time constraints, physical vulnerabilities and language barriers; availability and ease of access to tests; pre-emptive testing to facilitate subsequent care; contemporary medical practice and new technology Conclusion: This thematic framework may raise awareness of overtesting and prompt clinicians to change their test request behaviour. The development of a scale to assess clinician knowledge, attitudes and practices is planned to allow evaluation of clinician-targeted interventions to reduce overtesting.

Download Full-text

Why clinicians overtest: development of a thematic framework

10.21203/rs.3.rs-43690/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Justin H Lam ◽

Kristen Pickles ◽

Fiona Stanaway ◽

Katy JL Bell

Keyword(s):

Financial Incentives ◽

Cognitive Biases ◽

New Technology ◽

Group Discussion ◽

Unintended Consequences ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Medline Search ◽

Targeted Interventions ◽

Attitudes And Practices ◽

Thematic Framework

Abstract Background: Medical tests provide important information to guide clinical management. Overtesting, however, may cause harm to patients and the healthcare system, including through misdiagnosis, false positives, false negatives and overdiagnosis. Clinicians are ultimately responsible for test requests, and are therefore ideally positioned to prevent overtesting and its unintended consequences. Through this narrative literature review and workshop discussion with experts at the Preventing Overdiagnosis Conference (Sydney, 2019), we aimed to identify and establish a thematic framework of factors that influence clinicians to request non-recommended and unnecessary tests. Methods: Articles exploring factors affecting clinician test ordering behaviour were identified through a systematic search of MedLine in April 2019, forward and backward citation searches and content experts. Two authors screened abstract titles and abstracts, and two authors screened full text for inclusion. Identified factors were categorised into a preliminary framework which was subsequently presented at the PODC for iterative development.Results: The MedLine search yielded 542 articles; 55 were included. Another 10 articles identified by forward-backward citation and content experts were included, resulting in 65 articles in total. Following small group discussion with workshop participants, a revised thematic framework of factors was developed: · “Intrapersonal” – fear of malpractice and litigation; clinician knowledge and understanding; intolerance of uncertainty and risk aversion; cognitive biases and experiences; sense of medical obligation· “Interpersonal” – pressure from patients and doctor-patient relationship; pressure from colleagues and medical culture; · “Environment/context” – guidelines, protocols and policies; financial incentives and ownership of tests; time constraints, physical vulnerabilities and language barriers; availability and ease of access to tests; pre-emptive testing to facilitate subsequent care; contemporary medical practice and new technology Conclusion: This thematic framework may raise awareness of overtesting and prompt clinicians to change their test request behaviour. The development of a scale to assess clinician knowledge, attitudes and practices is planned to allow evaluation of clinician-targeted interventions to reduce overtesting.

Download Full-text

Factors affecting farm succession: the case of Slovenia

Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) ◽

10.17221/47/2011-agricecon ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 58 (No. 6) ◽

pp. 285-298 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

B. Kerbler

Keyword(s):

Member State ◽

Financial Incentives ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Economic Factors ◽

Behavioral Patterns ◽

Timely Manner ◽

Factors Affecting

Slovenia, like other developed countries, is characterized by the fact that the number of farm takeovers is decreasing and farms are not being transferred to successors in a timely manner. As an EU member state, Slovenia is entitled to financial incentives intended to halt or at least ameliorate this trend, but the situation is nonetheless not improving. This article proceeds from the hypothesis that economic factors are not the only ones that affect succession on Slovenian farms. The hypothesis was confirmed in a study limited to mountain farms. It was determined that, although economic factors have a significant effect on succession on Slovenian farms, at the same time other factors also affect this. Among these, the factors that stand out the most are those through which tradition or traditional thought and behavioral patterns are expressed, as well as the factors that express the standpoints, perceptions, and opinions of farm owners.

Download Full-text

Factors Affecting Sexual Assault Case Processing: Charging Through Sentencing in a Large Southern County

Journal of Interpersonal Violence ◽

10.1177/0886260521993923 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 088626052199392

Author(s):

Brie Diamond ◽

Kendra Bowen ◽

Ronald Burns

Keyword(s):

Sexual Assault ◽

Criminal History ◽

Court System ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Reporting Practices ◽

Dna Evidence ◽

Victim Impact Statement ◽

Southern District ◽

Continuation Ratio ◽

Sexual Assault Case

Factors affecting prosecutorial decision-making represent one of the most understudied parts of the criminal justice system. Documenting these influences in relation to sexual assault cases is even more rare. The present study analyzed the complete prosecutorial case files of a large, southern district attorney’s office regarding all adult sexual assault cases received over a three-year period. Logistic regression and continuation ratio modeling were used to determine which factors were related to continued progression through the court system, from charging to sentencing. The findings indicate that cases with older or Latino defendants, as well as cases involving injury to the victim, were significantly more likely to be charged. A continuation ratio model of subsequent case outcomes indicated that factors such as DNA evidence, the use of a weapon, and the inclusion of a victim impact statement increased the likelihood of a case progressing to later stages of the system. The influence of criminal history and the amount of prosecutor contact with the victim, however, varied across outcomes. Namely, criminal history increased the odds of receiving a prison sentence while prosecutor contacts with the victim increased the odds of case indictment. These findings imply potential shifts in the treatment of these cases while also suggesting areas of improvement. Namely, prosecutors should strive to increase the amount of meaningful contacts with victims and encourage their participation in the court process. These findings also support the use of sexual assault packets by law enforcement to improve and standardize reporting practices for these cases.

Download Full-text