scholarly journals A virtual hydrological framework for evaluation of stochastic rainfall models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bree Bennett ◽  
Mark Thyer ◽  
Michael Leonard ◽  
Martin Lambert ◽  
Bryson Bates
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Evaluation Methods ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Direct Evaluation ◽  
Rainfall Model ◽  
Rainfall Statistics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Stochastic rainfall modelling is a commonly used technique for evaluating the impact of flooding, drought or climate change in a catchment. While considerable attention is given to the development of stochastic rainfall models, significantly less attention is given to performance evaluation methods. Typical evaluation methods employ a variety of rainfall statistics. However, they give limited understanding about which rainfall characteristics are most important for reliable streamflow prediction whenever the simulated rainfall are poor. To address this issue a new evaluation method for rainfall models is introduced, with three key features: (i) streamflow-based – to give a direct evaluation of modelled streamflow performance, (ii) virtual – to avoid the issue of confounding errors in hydrological models or data, and (iii) targeted – to isolate the source of errors according to specific sites and months. The virtual hydrologic evaluation framework is applied to a case study of 22 sites in South Australia. The framework demonstrated that apparently good modelled rainfall can produce poor streamflow predictions, whilst poor modelled rainfall may lead to good streamflow predictions, as catchment processes can dampen or amplify rainfall errors when converted to streamflow. The framework identified the importance of rainfall in the wetting-up months of the catchment cycle (May and June in this case study) for providing reliable predictions of streamflow over the entire year despite their low monthly flow volume. This insight would not have been found using existing methods and highlights the importance of the virtual hydrological evaluation framework for stochastic rainfall model evaluation.

scholarly journals A virtual hydrological framework for evaluation of stochastic rainfall models

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 4783-4801
Author(s):  
Bree Bennett ◽  
Mark Thyer ◽  
Michael Leonard ◽  
Martin Lambert ◽  
Bryson Bates
Keyword(s):  
South Australia ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Surprising Result ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Direct Evaluation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Rainfall Statistics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Stochastic rainfall modelling is a commonly used technique for evaluating the impact of flooding, drought, or climate change in a catchment. While considerable attention has been given to the development of stochastic rainfall models (SRMs), significantly less attention has been paid to developing methods to evaluate their performance. Typical evaluation methods employ a wide range of rainfall statistics. However, they give limited understanding about which rainfall statistical characteristics are most important for reliable streamflow prediction. To address this issue a formal evaluation framework is introduced, with three key features: (i) streamflow-based, to give a direct evaluation of modelled streamflow performance, (ii) virtual, to avoid the issue of confounding errors in hydrological models or data, and (iii) targeted, to isolate the source of errors according to specific sites and seasons. The virtual hydrological evaluation framework uses two types of tests, integrated tests and unit tests, to attribute deficiencies that impact on streamflow to their original source in the SRM according to site and season. The framework is applied to a case study of 22 sites in South Australia with a strong seasonal cycle. In this case study, the framework demonstrated the surprising result that apparently “good” modelled rainfall can produce “poor” streamflow predictions, whilst “poor” modelled rainfall may lead to “good” streamflow predictions. This is due to the representation of highly seasonal catchment processes within the hydrological model that can dampen or amplify rainfall errors when converted to streamflow. The framework identified the importance of rainfall in the “wetting-up” months (months where the rainfall is high but streamflow low) of the annual hydrologic cycle (May and June in this case study) for providing reliable predictions of streamflow over the entire year despite their low monthly flow volume. This insight would not have been found using existing methods and highlights the importance of the virtual hydrological evaluation framework for SRM evaluation.

Using rapid evaluation methods to assess service delivery changes: Lessons learned for evaluation practice during the COVID-19 pandemic

2022 ◽  
pp. 1035719X2110576
Author(s):  
Milbert Gawaya ◽  
Desiree Terrill ◽  
Eleanor Williams
Keyword(s):  
Service Delivery ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Methods ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Rapid Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic required large-scale service delivery changes for government, and provided the opportunity for evaluators to step up and support decision makers to understand the impact of these changes. Rapid evaluation methods (REM) provide a pragmatic approach for generating timely information for evidence-based policy and decision-making. Grounded in developmental and utilisation-focused evaluation theory, REM incorporates a team-based, mixed methods design, executed over a 6–8-week period. Customised rubrics were used to rigorously assess effectiveness and scalability of practice changes to inform COVID-19 response planning. REM is an alternative approach to full-scale evaluation models frequently implemented to assess policies and programs. Adapted use of REM suggests that meaningful insights can be gained through use of smaller scale evaluations. This article shares lessons learned from a novel rapid evaluation method applied in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid evaluation approach was implemented to provide real-time insights and evaluative conclusions for 15 program and practice adaptations across Victorian health and human service settings. The article shares insights about the practical applicability of balancing rigour and timeliness when implementing a rapid evaluation, and strengths and limitations of working within a fast-paced evaluation framework. Findings can inform evaluative practice in resource and time-limited settings.

scholarly journals The Stopit! programme to reduce bullying and undermining behaviour in hospitals

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Benmore ◽  
Steven Henderson ◽  
Joanna Mountfield ◽  
Brian Wink
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Realist Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Training Interventions ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Q Sort ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The impact of bullying and undermining behaviours on the National Health Service on costs, patient safety and retention of staff was well understood even before the Illing report, published in 2013, that reviewed the efficacy of training interventions designed to reduce bullying and harassment in the outputs. The purpose of this paper is to provide an example of a good programme well evaluated. Design/methodology/approach The methodology follows a broad realist approach, by specifying the underlying programme assumptions and intention of the designers. Three months after the event, Q-sort methodology was employed to group participants into one of three contexts – mechanism – output groups. Interviews were then undertaken with members of two of these groups, to evaluate how the programme had influenced each. Findings Q-sort identified a typology of three beneficiaries from the Stopit! workshops, characterised as professionals, colleagues and victims. Each group had acted upon different parts of the programme, depending chiefly upon their current and past experiences of bullying in hospitals. Research limitations/implications The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of using Q-sort method to identify relevant CMOs in a realist evaluation framework. Practical implications The paper considers the effectiveness of the programme to reduce bullying, rather than teach victims to cope, and how it may be strengthened based upon the research findings and Illing recommendations. Social implications Workplace bullying is invariably implicated in scandals concerning poor hospital practice, poor patient outcomes and staff illness. All too frequently, the sector responds by offering training in resilience, which though helpful, places the onus on the victim to cope rather than the employer to reduce or eliminate the practice. This paper documents and evaluates an attempt to change workplace practices to directly address bullying and undermining. Originality/value The paper describes a new programme broadly consistent with Illing report endorsements. Second, it illustrates a novel evaluation method that highlights rigorously the contexts, mechanisms and outcomes at the pilot stage of an intervention identifies contexts and mechanisms via factor analysis using Q-sort methodology.

scholarly journals A Systematic Disturbance Analysis Method for Resilience Evaluation: A Case Study in Material Handling Systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiying Li ◽  
Xiaoyu Tian ◽  
Li Yu ◽  
Rui Kang
Keyword(s):  
Material Handling ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Intelligent Manufacturing ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
System Response ◽  
Key Performance Index ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Disturbance Analysis ◽  
System Resilience

With the development of intelligent manufacturing technology, the material handling system (MHS) faces larger resilience challenges that threaten the sustainability of the system. To evaluate system resilience, the disturbance that the system may experience and the system response need to be identified in advance. This paper proposes a systematic and innovative approach to performing resilience-related disturbance analysis, i.e., disturbance mode and effects analysis (DMEA). Using this method, the possible disturbance modes, their occurrence probabilities, and the quantitative effects on system performance can be collected in a bottom-up process, and the information can be applied to further resilience quantification. Moreover, a quantitative system resilience evaluation framework for the MHS based on DMEA and the Monte Carlo method is presented. Production is defined as the key performance index of the system and is monitored to reflect the resilience behavior of the system after the disturbance occurs. The resilience of a tire tread handing system is quantified in our case study, and the results show the effectiveness of our DMEA-based resilience evaluation method. We also find that a reasonable system configuration and maintenance strategy can effectively improve system resilience, and a trade-off can be made between resilience and cost.

scholarly journals The Integrated Hydropower Sustainability Assessment in Tajikistan: A Case Study of Rogun Hydropower Plant

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Zhao Xu ◽  
Yumin Niu ◽  
Yangze Liang ◽  
Zhigang Li ◽  
Atoev Iftikhor
Keyword(s):  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Sustainable Performance ◽  
The Impact

Tajikistan has formulated the strategy to rejuvenate the country through hydropower. The Rogun hydropower plant (HPP) is designed as the highest hydropower station, while its sustainability is also questioned due to a lack of comprehensive sustainability evaluation. Considering that the external environment of Rogun HPP is complex and changeable, its sustainable performance will be fragile and inconstant. To comprehensively assess the sustainable performance, an integrated evaluation framework, covering the current and dynamic sustainable performance, is urgently established. Therefore, this paper firstly explored the hydropower sustainability assessment indicators which can conform to Tajikistan’s situations and further examined the current sustainable performance of Rogun HPP. The case study found that Rogun HPP’s current financial viability, involuntary resettlement, the measures to prevent corruption, and information disclosure were seriously deficient. The SWOT analysis indicated the external factors, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, improving business environment, and easing geopolitical disputes, can eliminate weaknesses and improve the sustainable performance of Rogun HPP. At the same time, tight fiscal allocations and economic downturns will have negative influences on the sustainable performance. The integrated evaluation tool established in this paper can not only evaluate the current sustainable performance but also consider the impact of external factors on sustainable performance from a dynamic perspective. This paper contributes to the current knowledge system by establishing the hydropower sustainability assessment system which is suitable for Tajikistan’s conditions. Moreover, the results are informative for the decision-makers to have a better understanding of Rogun HPP’s current strengths and weaknesses, valuable opportunities, and potential threats.

Incinerator Stop Operation Assessment and Municipal Solid Waste Disposition Adjustment

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 1142-1146
Author(s):  
Shu Kuang Ning ◽  
Ling Cian Huang
Keyword(s):  
Municipal Solid Waste ◽  
Solid Waste ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Waste Reduction ◽  
Operation Performance ◽  
Heating Value ◽  
Service Areas ◽  
Southern Taiwan ◽  
The Impact

Incineration is the main way to dispose the municipal solid waste (MSW) in Taiwan. The amount of MSW is rapidly decreased during recent 10 years due to the policies implementation of waste reduction and resource recycle since 2003. Assessment of incinerator operation stop and transformation therefore becomes an essential issue. An evaluation framework was constructed and put into practice in this research. With the considerations of service status, operation performance, MSW treatment status and the impact level of stopping operation was integrated and assessed in the first stage. An optimal model was built for re-programming the MSW clean strategies of original service areas by taking account of MSW collection distance, design capacity of incinerators and the heating value of solid waste in the second stage. A case study was implemented for four incinerators in Kaohsiung City of southern Taiwan to demonstrate the feasibility of proposed assessment framework.

scholarly journals The impact of the truck loads on the braking efficiency assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branislav Šarkan ◽  
Marek Jaśkiewicz ◽  
Monika Kiktová
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Efficiency Evaluation ◽  
Linear Extrapolation ◽  
Special Situation ◽  
Direct Evaluation ◽  
Technical Inspection ◽  
Braking System ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe paper deals with possibilities of assessment of braking efficiency during evaluation of braking system at technical inspection of trucks in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The braking efficiency of the vehicle is evaluated by measuring the braking forces at the roller brake tester. The magnitude of these forces also depends on the loads of the measured vehicle. The paper analyses the results of the practical tests of the braking efficiency measurement of a truck of category N3 and of a vehicle combination consisting of vehicles of category N3 and O4. The analysed vehicle combination was gradually loaded in four different ways and a special situation was the measurement of the braking efficiency of the tractor itself. The instantaneous load on each axle was recorded with portable axle weights. The braking efficiency evaluation was carried out in accordance with the valid methodology, which allows the application of the direct evaluation method, the method of linear extrapolation, the method of the reference braking forces and the indicative evaluation. A vehicle with the same braking system may be assessed as roadworthy or not roadworthy. This is due to the application of different methods of evaluating the braking efficiency and different way of loads at the loading area.

Lawyers in the Children's Court: An Australian Perspective

1991 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 374-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngaire Naffine ◽  
Joy Wundersitz
Keyword(s):  
Significant Role ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Legal Representation ◽  
Children's Court ◽  
Children’S Court ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Court Process ◽  
Court Hearing

Using South Australia as a case study, this article examines the role and the impact of the lawyer in the children's court. It suggests that the failure of English and American researchers to find a consistently significant role for the children's lawyer may be a function of the narrowness of their focus: on the formal court process rather than on the informal processes of justice that precede the court hearing. It concludes that in South Australia, lawyers are most influential when bargaining a plea on behalf of their clients. It is in this area of discretionary justice that the young defendant may experience both the best and the worst effects of legal representation.

scholarly journals Segment-based resilience response and intervention evaluation of water distribution systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Liu ◽  
Yinyin Kang
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Water Distribution Systems ◽  
Pipe Failure ◽  
Critical Segment ◽  
Recovery Response ◽  
Efficient Recovery ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The consideration of isolation valves and segments is essential for evaluating the water service and resilience of water distribution systems when shutdowns are required under pipe failure. However, little work has been done on assessing the resilience response and intervention based on segments. This study investigates the impact of intervention (valve density and protection of critical segment) and response (recovery time and recovery sequence) on system resilience taking valve layout into consideration. An algorithm to identify segments based on the graph theory is proposed. Resilience is quantified using the satisfactory rate of the water supply demand. Critical segments are ranked based on resilience analysis. The resilience evaluation method is applied to a case study network. It is found that valve optimization can significantly reduce the number of valves without considerably decreasing the resilience performance. Valve density and the protection of critical segment can reduce the severity of pipe failure, while efficient recovery response can reduce the severity and shorten the duration of pipe failure simultaneously. The criticality of segments depends on the segment location and hydraulic interdependency among segments.

Contesting imaginaries in the Australian city: Urban planning, public storytelling and the implications for climate change

Urban Studies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
pp. 1536-1552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Potter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Indigenous Australians ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Place Making ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact

In Australia, environmental degradation goes hand in hand with exclusionary and mono-vocal tactics of place-making. This article argues that dominant cultural imaginaries inform material and discursive practices of place-making with significant consequence for diverse, inclusive and climate change-responsive urban environments. Urban planning in the modern global city commonly deploys imaginaries in line with neoliberal logics, and this article takes a particular interest in the impact of this on Indigenous Australians, whose original dispossession connects through to current Indigenous urban experiences of exclusion which are set to intensify in the face of increasing climate change. The article explores what urban resilience means in this context, focusing on a case study of urban development in Port Adelaide, South Australia, and broadens the question of dispossession through the forces of global capital to potentially all of humanity in the Anthropocene.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document