scholarly journals The role of household adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yared Abayneh Abebe ◽  
Amineh Ghorbani ◽  
Igor Nikolic ◽  
Natasa Manojlovic ◽  
Angelika Gruhn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Event Series ◽  
Individual Strategies ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. Flood adaptation measures implemented at household-level play an important role in reducing communities’ vulnerability. The aim of this study is to enhance the current modelling practices of human-flood interaction to draw new insights for FRM policy design. The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for the case of Hamburg, Germany to explore how individual adaptation behaviour is influenced by flood events scenarios, economic incentives, and shared and individual strategies. Simulation results show that a unique trajectory of adaptation measures and flood damages emerge from different flood event series. Another finding is that providing subsidies increases the number of coping households in the long run. Households’ social network also has a strong influence on their coping behaviour. The paper also highlights the role of simple measures such as adapted furnishing, which do not incur any monetary cost, in reducing households vulnerability and preventing millions of euros of contents damage. Generally, we demonstrate that coupled agent-based and flood models can potentially be used as decision support tools to examine the role of household adaptation measures in flood risk management. Although the findings of the paper are case-specific, the improved modelling approach shows the potential to be applied in testing policy levers and strategies considering heterogeneous individual behaviours.

scholarly journals The role of household adaptation measures in reducing vulnerability to flooding: a coupled agent-based and flood modelling approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 5329-5354
Author(s):  
Yared Abayneh Abebe ◽  
Amineh Ghorbani ◽  
Igor Nikolic ◽  
Natasa Manojlovic ◽  
Angelika Gruhn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Event ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. Flood adaptation measures implemented at the household level play an important role in reducing communities' vulnerability. The aim of this study is to enhance the current modelling practices of human–flood interaction to draw new insights for flood risk management (FRM) policy design. The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for the case of Hamburg, Germany, to explore how individual adaptation behaviour is influenced by flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. Simulation results show that a unique trajectory of adaptation measures and flood damages emerges from different flood event series. Another finding is that providing subsidies increases the number of coping households in the long run. Households' social network also has a strong influence on their coping behaviour. The paper also highlights the role of simple measures such as adapted furnishings, which do not incur any monetary cost, in reducing households' vulnerability and preventing millions of euros of contents damages. Generally, we demonstrate that coupled agent-based and flood models can potentially be used as decision support tools to examine the role of household adaptation measures in flood risk management. Although the findings of the paper are case-specific, the improved modelling approach shows the potential to be applied in testing policy levers and strategies considering heterogeneous individual behaviours.

MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION AND LONG-TERM GROWTH: THE ROLE OF POLICY DESIGN

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Harting
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
Endogenous Business Cycles ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Fiscal Stabilization

Do fiscal stabilization policies affect the long-term growth of the economy? If so, are the long-term effects growth enhancing or growth reducing? When addressing these questions from a theoretical perspective, the literature has typically emphasized the importance of structural aspects such as the modeling approach of endogenous technological change while paying less attention to an elaborate design of the considered fiscal stabilization policies. This paper uses an agent-based macroeconomic model that generates endogenous business cycles to emphasize the role of the policy design for long-term growth effects of stabilization policies. By comparing a demand-oriented consumption policy and two different investment subsidizing policies, it can be shown that these policies are successful in smoothing the business cycle but differ in terms of their effects on economic long-term growth. This highlights the importance of policy design for the analysis of long-term effects of stabilization policies.

scholarly journals Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Mellacher
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Viral Evolution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Evolutionary Selection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Evolutionary Advantage ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractHow will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latent period prove to be fitter. “Smart” containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge to variants with a longer incubation period and a higher share of asymptomatic infections. Reduced mortality, on the other hand, does not per se prove to be an evolutionary advantage. I then implement this model as an agent-based simulation model in order to explore its aggregate dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations show that a) containment policy design has an impact on both speed and direction of viral evolution, b) the virus may circulate in the population indefinitely, provided that containment efforts are too relaxed and the propensity of the virus to escape immunity is high enough, and crucially c) that it may not be possible to distinguish between a slowly and a rapidly evolving virus by looking only at short-term epidemiological outcomes. Thus, what looks like a successful mitigation strategy in the short run, may prove to have devastating long-run effects. These results suggest that optimal containment policy must take the propensity of the virus to mutate and escape immunity into account, strengthening the case for genetic and antigenic surveillance even in the early stages of an epidemic.

scholarly journals Similar Negotiations over Childcare? A Comparative Study of Fathers’ Parental Leave Use in Finland and Sweden

Societies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Ann-Zofie Duvander ◽  
Eleonora Mussino ◽  
Jussi Tervola
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Parental Leave ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
Bargaining Positions ◽  
Different Levels

Fathers’ leave use is promoted in many countries, but so far with different success. Major explanations of different usage revolve around economic bargaining between parents and economic constraints in the household. By using extensive register data from 1999–2009 in Finland and Sweden, this study asks whether fathers’ use of parental leave in the two countries is determined by the same socioeconomic characteristics on the individual and the household level once we control for sociodemographic factors. Striking similarities in what influences fathers’ use of leave in the two contexts are found, even though leave is used at very different levels and the policy design differs remarkably. Generally, fathers with a similar income level to the mother use leave the most, but in high-income households the mother’s higher income leads to the highest propensity of fathers’ leave take-up. The results indicate that equal bargaining positions are associated with fathers’ leave use but also that mothers’ stronger position often facilitates fathers’ leave. We conclude that the role of gendered bargaining positions should be studied in interaction with the level of resources in the household.

scholarly journals Climate Variations, Culture, and Economic Behaviors by Chinese Households

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dayong Zhang ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
Qiang Ji ◽  
Shunsuke Managi
Keyword(s):  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Economic Behaviors

Abstract Societies adapt to climate variation and develop unique cultures that lead to distinctive economic behaviors across different regions. To estimate the climate-economic link and test the hypothetical role of culture, this paper uses a nationwide survey at the household level in China, together with historical temperature data at the prefectural city level for empirical analysis. The results show the significant role of local climate variation on consumption, savings, and investment decisions by households. Harsh weather conditions are associated with lower consumption, lower income, and higher savings. It is also associated with a lower probability of purchasing risky financial assets. Using a sample of migrating families, we find strong evidence that culture is an important channel in the climate-economic relationship. Additional support for this view is found through the ‘catching up with the Joneses’ effect documented in the economics literature. Overall, this research provides an alternative perspective for understanding the long-run behavioral impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Incentives in Subsidies: Evidence from a Large-Scale Electricity Rebate Program

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichiro Ito
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Air Conditioner ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Many countries use substantial public funds to subsidize reductions in negative externalities. Such policy designs create asymmetric incentives because increases in externalities remain unpriced. I investigate the implications of such policies by using a regression discontinuity design in California's electricity rebate program. Using household-level panel data, I find that the incentive produced precisely estimated zero treatment effects on energy conservation in coastal areas. In contrast, the rebate induced short-run and long-run consumption reductions in inland areas. Income, climate, and air conditioner saturation significantly drive the heterogeneity. Finally, I provide a cost-effectiveness analysis and investigate how to improve the policy design. (JEL D12, D62, H76, L94, L98, Q48)

Hard Target

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Marcus Noland
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Long Run

Because authoritarian regimes like North Korea can impose the costs of sanctions on their citizens, they constitute “hard targets.” Yet such regimes may also be immune—and even hostile—to economic inducements if those inducements imply reform and opening. Can economic carrots and sticks by used effectively with respect to such systems? This book draws on an array of evidence—trade data, surveys of Chinese and South Korea firms doing business in North Korea, and an analysis of the country’s political structure—to capture the effects of sanctions and inducements. The book also provides a detailed reconstruction of the role of economic incentives in the bargaining over North Korea’s nuclear program. While it highlights the difficulties sanctions have faced, it also shows the reluctance of the leadership to weaken its grip on foreign economic activity, suggesting that inducements may have limited effect as well. The case is made through a detailed reconstruction of negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. Discussing parallels to Iran, the book urges policy makers to think in terms of gradual strategies—including informational ones—that may have effects only over the long run.

scholarly journals The role of money in monetary policy design of modern central banks

2007 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 560-578
Author(s):  
Gradimir Kozetinac
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Indicator Variable ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Long Run

This paper considers the role of money, particularly the role of monetary analysis in monetary policy-making. During the last three decades, many central banks changed their monetary policy considerably. In the late 1970s money and the long-run effects of its movements on inflation were in the center-stage of economic policy. Given the breakdown of the relationship between monetary aggregates and goal variables such as inflation, many countries in the world have recently adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy regime. The direct control of money supply lost importance. Central bankers operate in an environment of high uncertainty regarding the functioning of the economy. In such a complex environment, a single model or a limited set of indicators is not a sufficient guide for monetary policy. Monetary aggregates continue to be an important indicator variable concludes the author.

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