scholarly journals Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica E. Cherry ◽  
Corrie Knapp ◽  
Sarah Trainor ◽  
Andrea J. Ray ◽  
Molly Tedesche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Far North ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Responses ◽  
Available Information

Abstract. Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; it provides a template for application of current techniques for prediction and estimating uncertainty, and it describes best practices for integrating science into management and decision-making. The growing number of studies on hydrologic impacts suggests that information resulting from climate change science has matured enough that it can and should be integrated into hydropower scoping, design, and management. Continuing to ignore the best available information in lieu of status quo planning is likely to prove costly to society in the long term.

scholarly journals Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica E. Cherry ◽  
Corrie Knapp ◽  
Sarah Trainor ◽  
Andrea J. Ray ◽  
Molly Tedesche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Far North ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Responses ◽  
Available Information

Abstract. Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; it provides a template for application of current techniques for prediction and estimating uncertainty, and it describes best practices for integrating science into management and decision-making. The growing number of hydrologic impacts studies suggests that information resulting from climate change science has matured enough that it can and should be integrated into hydropower scoping, design, and management. Continuing to ignore the best-available information in lieu of status quo planning is likely to prove costly to society in the long term.

scholarly journals Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Rita Hounguè ◽  
Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po ◽  
Nina Rholan Hounguè ◽  
André Attogouinon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Distributed Model

This work focuses on impacts of climate change on Ouémé River discharge at Bonou outlet based on four global climate models (GCM) over Ouémé catchment from 1971 to 2050. Empirical quantile mapping method is used for bias correction of GCM. Furthermore, twenty-five rain gauges were selected among which are three synoptic stations. The semi-distributed model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System from Hydrologic Engineering Center) is used to simulate runoff. As results, HEC-HMS showed ability to simulate runoff while taking into account land use and cover change. In fact, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) coefficient was 0.94 and 0.91 respectively in calibration and validation. Moreover, Ouémé River discharge is projected to decrease about 6.58 m3/s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) while an insignificant increasing trend is found under RCP 8.5. Therefore, water resource management infrastructure, especially dam construction, has to be developed for water shortage prevention. In addition, it is essential to account for uncertainties when designing such sensitive infrastructure for flood management.

scholarly journals Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River Basin as a result of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5737-5768 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Hughes ◽  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
M. C. Todd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Okavango River ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change In Mean

Abstract. This paper assesses the hydrological response to scenarios of climate change in the Okavango River catchment in Southern Africa. Climate scenarios are constructed representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 7 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a substantial change in mean flow associated with a global warming of 2 °C. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the projected changes between different climate models, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation. There is also a clear need to evaluate the physical mechanisms associated with the model projected changes in this region. The implications for water resource management policy are considered.

scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

scholarly journals Values and motivations in tourist perceptions of last-chance tourism

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Hindley ◽  
Xavier Font
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Photo Elicitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Construction Technique ◽  
Projective Techniques ◽  
Personal Variables ◽  
The Social ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Nuanced Understanding

Tourists' perceptions of climate change affect decisions and choices to visit destinations, which are disappearing because of climate change impacts. Values and motivations are two of the personal variables underpinning tourists' decisions. The study addresses both the limited values research in tourism and reveals unconscious motives by using projective techniques. Projective techniques avoid some of the social desirability bias present in much ethical research. Choice ordering technique and the list of values assist by assigning importance, with narrative responses providing meaning. The construction technique builds a story from a stimulus, with photo-elicitation using participants' personal holiday photographs. A sample of pre, during and post visit tourists to the Arctic and Venice were interviewed. Results, which provide a more nuanced understanding of how the personal variables of values and motivations are underpinned by self-interest, inform policies and the messages designed to influence pro-sustainability behaviour.

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