scholarly journals Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 4131-4147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Skougaard Kaspersen ◽  
Nanna Høegh Ravn ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
Henrik Madsen ◽  
Martin Drews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984–2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the evolutionary approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7–12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081–2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Developing the capacity of the urban drainage system in relation to urban development is found to be an effective adaptation measure as it fully compensates for the increase in run-off caused by additional sealed surfaces. On the other hand, updating the drainage system according to changes in precipitation intensities caused by climate change only marginally reduces flooding for the most extreme events.

scholarly journals Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change in exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Skougaard Kaspersen ◽  
Nanna Høegh Ravn ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
Henrik Madsen ◽  
Martin Drews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent, different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984–2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7–12 % during the past thirty years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081–2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation.

scholarly journals Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 21-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Skougaard Kaspersen ◽  
N. Høegh Ravn ◽  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
H. Madsen ◽  
M. Drews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Pluvial Flooding

Abstract. The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

scholarly journals Measuring Urban Land Cover Influence on Air Temperature through Multiple Geo-Data—The Case of Milan, Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Oxoli ◽  
Giulia Ronchetti ◽  
Marco Minghini ◽  
Monia Molinari ◽  
Maryam Lotfian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Urban Land Cover

Climate issues are nowadays one of the most pressing societal challenges, with cities being identified among the landmarks for climate change. This study investigates the effect of urban land cover composition on a relevant climate-related variable, i.e., the air temperature. The analysis exploits different big geo-data sources, namely high-resolution satellite imagery and in-situ air temperature observations, using the city of Milan (Northern Italy) as a case study. Satellite imagery from the Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, and RapidEye missions are used to derive Local Climate Zone (LCZ) maps depicting land cover compositions across the study area. Correlation tests are run to investigate and measure the influence of land cover composition on air temperature. Results show an underlying connection between the two variables by detecting an average temperature offset of about 1.5 ∘ C between heavily urbanized and vegetated urban areas. The approach looks promising in investigating urban climate at a local scale and explaining effects through maps and exploratory graphs, which are valuable tools for urban planners to implement climate change mitigation strategies. The availability of worldwide coverage datasets, as well as the exclusive use of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS), provide the analysis with a potential to be empowered, replicated, and improved.

European cities facing climate change: water management issue

BUILDER ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (7) ◽  
pp. 78-85
Author(s):  
Sebastian Dziedzic ◽  
Agata Twardoch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Spaces ◽  
Management Issue ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Integrated Approaches

The article provides an overview of spatial and legal solutions related to the issue of water management in cities in the context of climate change. The aim of the research is to identify the main differences between the traditional and integrated approaches to water-related infrastructure based on case studies of European Cities at different scales. Gathering, ordering and comparing adequate solutions will allow to establish guidelines for the development of Polish cities and point out directions for architects and urban planners designing urban spaces. The comparison of good examples with theory would make it possible to verify whether practise corresponds with theory, and whether it can actually - through the synergy of measures – bring new quality to urban areas.

scholarly journals Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-452
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rohat ◽  
Stéphane Goyette ◽  
Johannes Flacke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Land Cover Change and Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 4865 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haochen Yu ◽  
Zhengfu Bian ◽  
Shouguo Mu ◽  
Junfang Yuan ◽  
Fu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Vegetation Growth

Since the Silk-road Economic belt initiatives were proposed, Xinjiang has provided a vital strategic link between China and Central Asia and even Eurasia. However, owing to the weak and vulnerable ecosystem in this arid region, even a slight climate change would probably disrupt vegetation dynamics and land cover change. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) responses to climate change. Here, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method and linear regression method (LRM) were applied to recognize the variation trends of the NDVI, temperature, and precipitation between the growing season and other seasons. Combining the transfer matrix of LULC, the Pearson correlation analysis was utilized to reveal the response of NDVI to climate change and climate extremes. The results showed that: (1) Extreme temperature showed greater variation than extreme precipitation. Both the ESMD and the LRM exhibited an increased volatility trend for the NDVI, with the significant improvement regions mainly located in the margin of basins. (2) Since climate change had a warming trend, the permanent snow has been reduced by 20,436 km2. The NDVI has a higher correlation to precipitation than temperature. Furthermore, the humid trend could provide more suitable conditions for vegetation growth, but the warm trend might prevent vegetation growth. Spatially, the response of the NDVI in North Xinjiang (NXC) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in South Xinjiang (SXC). Seasonally, the NDVI has a greater correlation to precipitation in spring and summer, but the opposite occurs in autumn. (3) The response of the NDVI to extreme precipitation was stronger than the response to extreme temperature. The reduction in diurnal temperature variation was beneficial to vegetation growth. Therefore, continuous concentrated precipitation and higher night-time-temperatures could enhance vegetation growth in Xinjiang. This study could enrich the understanding of the response of land cover change and vegetation dynamics to climate extremes and provide scientific support for eco-environment sustainable management in the arid regions.

scholarly journals Link between Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Johanna Sörensen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact

The densification of urban areas has raised concerns over increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might increase under the impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves the conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas, causing lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intensity rainfall exceeds the capacity of an urban drainage system, the runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (i.e., 20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk as it relates to land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from drainage systems; these data serve as a proxy of flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis was placed on examining how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relate to flood risk. The relationships are defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies whereby land use change affects flood risk.

Land Cover/Use Analysis of Prespa National Park, Greece

1986 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 319-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Karteris ◽  
Myrto Pyrovetsi
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
National Park ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Wet Meadows ◽  
Waterbird Species ◽  
Irrigation Drainage

Prespa National Park in Greece is an important breeding-area for rare and endangered waterbird species, but people living within the Park and using its resources create serious conservation problems. An environmental management plan which will regulate mainly the human activities within the Park is therefore necessary. Such a plan should be based on a land cover/use analysis of the area, for which much of the necessary information, in the form of a thematic map, has been collected by interpreting blackand-white aerial photographs. The procedure involved the development of a classification system, transferring the interpreted data onto a base-map, field-checking the results, and tabulating the area measurements with the pertinent errors.Of the total Park area (25,690 ha), 66.5% is classified as terrestrial (forestland, rangeland, agricultural land whether irrigated, non-irrigated, or abandoned, wet meadows/marshland, barren and eroded land, and urban areas), and the remainder as aquatic (water, reedbeds). The most extensive category in the Park is forestland, much of which is seriously degraded. Rangeland provides forage for sheep and goats, being also degraded owing to uncontrolled grazing. Wet meadows/marshland are invaluable as waterbird breeding and feeding habitats, but the present use of this category as grazing fields, and its proximity to agricultural land and to the existing irrigation/drainage system, have all had negative impacts on the resource. Irrigated land is almost half of the cultivated area.The abandoned agricultural land is interspersed within the forestland and is a result of the human population decline in the area, while barren and eroded land has resulted from prolonged land misuse. Twelve old villages are distributed over the Park, being visually unobtrusive. Lake Mikri Prespa is the main water-body and covers almost the entire nucleus of the Park. Extensive reedbeds are found along the lakeshores, which are the main breeding habitats of certain waterbirds. As land cover/use analysis of the Park has shown much serious environmental degradation, conservation measures should be undertaken urgently.

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