scholarly journals Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 4125-4143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrica Perra ◽  
Monica Piras ◽  
Roberto Deidda ◽  
Claudio Paniconi ◽  
Giuseppe Mascaro ◽  
...  

Abstract. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern Sardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributed hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected, downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models in a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) period under a single emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment response. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soil water content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulation results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrica Perra ◽  
Monica Piras ◽  
Roberto Deidda ◽  
Claudio Paniconi ◽  
Giuseppe Mascaro ◽  
...  

Abstract. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern Sardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributed hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected, downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models in a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) period under a single emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment response. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soil water content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulation results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fubo Zhao ◽  
Yiping Wu ◽  
Jinyu Hui ◽  
Bellie Sivakumar ◽  
Xianyong Meng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystem functions. It is widely known that climate change and soil water content (SWC) could influence the SOC dynamics; however, there are still debates about how climate change, especially climate warming, and SWC impact SOC. We investigated the spatiotemporal changes in SOC and its responses to climate warming and root-zone SWC change using the coupled hydro-biogeochemical model (SWAT-DayCent) and climate scenarios data derived under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) from five downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) in a typical loess watershed––the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Results The air temperature would increase significantly during the future period (2017–2099), while the annual precipitation would increase by 2.0–13.1% relative to the baseline period (1976–2016), indicating a warmer and wetter future in the JRB. Driven by the precipitation variation, the root-zone SWC would also increase (by up to 27.9% relative to the baseline under RCP4.5); however, the SOC was projected to decrease significantly under the future warming climate. The combined effects of climate warming and SWC change could more reasonably explain the SOC loss, and this formed hump-shaped response surfaces between SOC loss and warming-SWC interactions under both RCP2.6 and 8.5, which can help explain diverse warming effects on SOC with changing SWC. Conclusions The study showed a significant potential carbon source under the future warmer and wetter climate in the JRB, and the SOC loss was largely controlled by future climate warming and the root-zone SWC as well. The hump-shaped responses of the SOC loss to climate warming and SWC change demonstrated that the SWC could mediate the warming effects on SOC loss, but this mediation largely depended on the SWC changing magnitude (drier or wetter soil conditions). This mediation mechanism about the effect of SWC on SOC would be valuable for enhancing soil carbon sequestration in a warming climate on the Loess Plateau.


1975 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 170-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. KRISTENSEN ◽  
S. E. JENSEN

A model for calculating the daily actual evapotranspiration based on the potential one is presented. The potential evapotranspiration is reduced according to vegetation density, water content in the root zone, and the rainfall distribution. The model is tested by comparing measured (EAm) and calculated (EAc) evapotranspirations from barley, fodder sugar beets, and grass over a four year period. The measured and calculated values agree within 10 %. The model also yields information on soil water content and runoff from the root zone.


Sugar Tech ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenta Watanabe ◽  
Samran Saensupo ◽  
Yanischa Na-iam ◽  
Peeraya Klomsa-ard ◽  
Klanarong Sriroth

2009 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gebremichael ◽  
R. Rigon ◽  
G. Bertoldi ◽  
T. M. Over

Abstract. By providing continuous high-resolution simulations of soil moisture fields, distributed hydrologic models could be powerful tools to advance the scientific community's understanding of the space-time variability and scaling characteristics of soil moisture fields. However, in order to use the soil moisture simulations from hydrologic models with confidence, it is important to understand whether the models are able to represent in a reliable way the processes regulating soil moisture variability. In this study, a comparison of the scaling characteristics of spatial soil moisture fields derived from a set of microwave radiometer observations from the Southern Great Plains 1997 experiment and corresponding simulations using the distributed hydrologic model GEOtop is performed through the use of generalized variograms. Microwave observations and model simulations are in agreement with respect to suggesting the existence of a scale-invariance property in the variograms of spatial soil moisture fields, and indicating that the scaling characteristics vary with changes in the spatial average soil water content. However, observations and simulations give contradictory results regarding the relationship between the scaling parameters (i.e. spatial organization) and average soil water content. The drying process increased the spatial correlation of the microwave observations at both short and long separation distances while increasing the rate of decay of correlation with distance. The effect of drying on the spatial correlation of the model simulations was more complex, depending on the storm and the simulation examined, but for the largest storm in the simulation most similar to the observations, drying increased the long-range correlation but decreased the short-range. This is an indication that model simulations, while reproducing correctly the total streamflow at the outlet of the watershed, may not accurately reproduce the runoff production mechanisms. Consideration of the scaling characteristics of spatial soil moisture fields can therefore serve as a more intensive means for validating distributed hydrologic models, compared to the traditional approach of only comparing the streamflow hydrographs.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Karuma ◽  
Peter Mtakwa ◽  
Nyambilila Amuri ◽  
Charles K. Gachene ◽  
Patrick Gicheru

Soil water conservation through tillage is one of the appropriate ways of addressing soil moisture deficit in rainfed agriculture. This study evaluated the effects of tillage practices on soil moisture conservation and crop yields in Mwala District, Eastern Kenya during the long rains (LR) and short rains (SR) of 2012/13. Six tillage systems: Disc plough (MB), Disc plough and harrowing (MBH), Ox-ploughing (OX), Subsoiling – ripping (SR), Hand hoe and Tied Ridges (HTR) and Hand hoe only (H) and, three cropping systems namely, sole maize, sole bean and maize - bean intercrop, were investigated in a split-plot design with four replicates. Data on soil water content was monitored at different weeks after planting and the crop yields at end of each growing season. A three-season average shows that soil water content and crop yields were higher in conventional tillage methods compared to the conservation tillage methods. Long term tillage experiments are thus required at different locations, under various environmental and soil conditions to validate the study findings.


Soil Research ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dieter Geesing ◽  
Martin Bachmaier ◽  
Urs Schmidhalter

Soil water research requires methods to perform accurate measurements. A capacitance probe gauge has characteristics that seem to make it an attractive replacement for neutron scatter gauges to measure soil water content, but there is evidence that capacitance systems should be calibrated for individual soils. Laboratory calibrations and many field calibration methods are costly and time-consuming, and controlled conditions and disturbed soil samples do not always reflect field conditions, and thus, they are inadequate for practical use. The objectives of the present study were (i) to test a simple field calibration method for a recently developed capacitive sensor even under highly variable soil texture conditions, and (ii) to validate this approach under various soil moisture conditions. Soil samples were taken 0.5 m from the access tube of the sensor and a whole field calibration and several site-specific calibrations were developed using 10–142 observations per site under different soil water regimes. A regression of soil water content estimated by sensor reading on water content obtained by core sampling showed no significant difference in the slope and intercept of the 1:1 line when the field calibration was applied. However, the precision of the calibration was only considerably increased if the estimations were based on site-specific calibrations developed on at least 35 observations per site. The precision and accuracy of the calibration equations were not affected when data were obtained only under wet or dry soil conditions. The method presented in this paper is a speedy and cheap way to calibrate capacitance probe sensors.


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